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Introduction: A systematic radiological examination is needed for military airborne troops in order to detect subclinical medical contraindications for airborne training. Many potential recruits are excluded because of scoliosis, kyphosis, or spondylolisthesis. This study aimed to determine whether complementary radiological assessment excludes too many recruits and whether medical standards might be lowered without increasing medical risk to appointees., Methods: This retrospective, epidemiological, cross-sectional single-center study spanned 5 years at the French paratroopers' initial training center. We analyzed all medical files and full-spine X-ray results of all enlisted troops during this period. Secondary evaluation by an orthopedic surgeon enabled 23 enlisted personnel, deemed medically unacceptable because of X-ray findings, to be given waivers for airborne training. A follow-up review of their 23 files was conducted to determine whether static-line parachute jumps were hazardous to those who were initially declared medically unacceptable., Results: Of the 3,993 full-spine X-rays, 67.5% (2,695) were described as having normal alignment and structure; 21.8% (871) had lateral spinal deviation; and 10.7% (427) had scoliosis. Sixty-six recruits (1.6%) were deemed unfit because of findings that did not meet the standard on the fullspine X-ray: 53 enlisted personnel had scoliosis greater than 15°, and 13 had spondylolisthesis (grade II or III). Of the 23 patients granted waivers, 82.3% with scoliosis (14) and all patients with kyphosis had not declared any back pain after 5 years., Conclusion: The findings, supported by a literature review of foreign military data, suggest that spondylolisthesis above grade I and low back pain are more significant than scoliosis and kyphosis for establishing airborne standards., Competing Interests: The authors have nothing to disclose., (2024.)

Background : Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic and inflammatory disease. Its management depends on the stage and extent of the disease. Surgery plays an important role in treatment options. This study explores the factors influencing healing after wide excision. Methods : This study analyzed data from patients who underwent wide excision for HS between 2016 and 2021. Results : A total of 160 patients (64.4% women) were included, with surgeries performed in the axillae (70), inguinal-ano-genital (73), and other locations (17, including gluteal). The mean TTWC was 74 ± 6 days, varying from 11 to 445 days. Factors negatively influencing TTWC included axillary localization ( p < 0.001) and the presence of another inflammatory disease ( p = 0.017). Factors positively influencing healing were smoking (<0.001) and previous or ongoing medical treatment (antibiotherapy or biologics) ( p = 0.011). Obesity or being overweight did not impact the TTWC in multivariate analysis, although overweight was significant in univariate analysis. Conclusions : While smoking cessation remains important in the management of HS, it does not appear to be a prerequisite for successful surgical treatment. Conversely, patients with an inflammatory disease or those undergoing surgery for an axillary lesion exhibit slower healing and should be informed of potential healing delays before surgery.

Objective: The management of penetrating abdominal wounds has greatly benefited from the development of computed tomography (CT), particularly in stable patients. In this setting, the scanner is the reference examination. Our study aims to evaluate the performance of preoperative CT in the assessment of penetrating abdominal lesions., Material and Methods: Between January 1, 2015 and January 1, 2022, 81 patients were hospitalized following penetrating abdominal trauma at the Army Training Hospitals of Sainte-Anne and Laveran. Fifty-one stable patients who had an abdominopelvic CT scan and thereafter underwent abdominal surgery (laparotomy or laparoscopy) were included. Radiological and surgical data were collected from the electronic record and compared by a descriptive analysis (calculation of the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value of the CT for the detection of lesions of the various organs) and by a correlation of the CT findings with surgical findings using Kripendorff's alpha coefficient., Results: The cohort was largely male (n=45; 88%), with injuries by knife wound in 62.7% of cases (n=32) and gunshot in 35.3% (n=18) of cases. The median age was 36years (25-47). The median index of severity score (ISS) was 17 (10-26). Excellent agreement between predicted and actual findings was obtained for solid organs (α=0.801) with high sensitivity and specificity (81.8% and 96.6%, respectively). The largest discrepancies were observed for the hollow organs (α=26.2%, sensitivity of 53.3% and specificity of 76.2%) and the diaphragm (α=67.3%, sensitivity 75%, specificity 92.3%). Surgical exploration was non-therapeutic for five patients (9.8%). The failure rate for non-operative treatment was 10% (n=1)., Conclusion: CT detection of solid organ lesions in patients with penetrating abdominal wounds is excellent. However, the detection of hollow organ and diaphragmatic wounds remains a challenge with a risk of over- and underdiagnosis. Laparoscopic exploration should be able to fill in the gaps in the CT findings., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy with sulfadoxine and pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) is a key component in the malaria control strategy implemented in Africa. The aim of this study was to determine IPTp-SP adherence and coverage, and the impact on maternal infection and birth outcomes in the context of widespread SP resistance in the city of Douala, Cameroon. Clinical and demographic information were documented among 888 pregnant women attending 3 health facilities, from the antenatal care visit to delivery. Positive samples were genotyped for P. falciparum gene ( dhfr , dhps , and k13 ) mutations. The overall IPTp-SP coverage (≥three doses) was 17.5%, and 5.1% received no dose. P. falciparum prevalence was 16%, with a predominance of submicroscopic infections (89.3%). Malaria infection was significantly associated with locality and history of malaria, and it was reduced among women using indoor residual spraying. Optimal doses of IPTp-SP were significantly associated with reduced infection among newborns and women (secundiparous and multiparous), but there was no impact of IPTp-SP on the newborn bodyweight. Pfdhfr - Pfdhps quintuple mutants were over-represented (IRNI-FGKAA, IRNI-AGKAA), and sextuple mutants (IRNI-AGKAS, IRNI-FGEAA, IRNI-AGKGS) were also reported. The Pfk13 gene mutations associated with artemisinin resistance were not detected. This study highlights the role of ANC in achieving optimal SP coverage in pregnant women, the mitigated impact of IPTp-SP on malaria outcomes, and the high prevalence of multiple SP-resistant P. falciparum parasites in the city of Douala that could compromise the efficacy of IPTp-SP.

Background: Antibiotics are growth promotors used in animal farming. Doxycycline (DOXY) is a tetracycline antibiotic taken daily and continued 1 month after return to protect against malaria during travel and deployment in endemic areas. We evaluated DOXY impact on body weight in military international travelers., Materiel and Methods: A prospective cohort analysis was conducted in 2016-2018, recruiting 170 French soldiers before a 4-month assignment overseas. Many clinical data including anthropometric measures by an investigator were collected before and after deployment. Weight gain was defined by an increase of 2% from baseline. The study protocol was supported by the French Armed Forces Health Services and approved by the French ethics committee (IRB no. 2015-A01961-48, ref promoter 2015RC0). Written, informed consent was obtained with signature from each volunteer before inclusion., Results: After deployment, 84 soldiers were followed up. Overall, 38/84 (45%) were deployed to Mali with DOXY malaria prophylaxis, and others were deployed to Iraq or Lebanon without malaria prophylaxis according to international recommendations. Body weight increased in 24/84 (30%), of whom 14/24 (58%) were exposed to DOXY. In bivariate analysis, DOXY had a positive but not significant effect on weight gain (P-value = .4). In the final logistic regression model (Fig. 3), weight gain after deployment positively correlated with an increase in waist circumference (odds ratio [OR] 1.23 with 95% CI [1.06-1.47]) suggesting fat gain; with sedentary work (OR 5.34; 95% CI [1.07-31.90]); and with probiotic intake (OR 5.27; 95% CI [1.51-20.40]). Weight impact of probiotics was more important when associated with DOXY intake (OR 6.86; 95% CI [1.52-38.1]; P-value = .016)., Conclusions: Doxycycline (DOXY) malaria prophylaxis during several months did not cause significant weight gain in soldiers. Further studies are required in older and less sportive traveling populations, and to investigate a cumulative effect over time and recurrent DOXY exposure. Doxycycline (DOXY) may enhance other growth-promoting factors including fatty food, sedentariness, and strain-specific probiotics contained in fermented dairy products which are also used as growth promotors., (© The Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2021. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Faced with the COVID-19 epidemic that occurred within the naval air group and the nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, the French Armed Forces Epidemiology and Public Health Center (CESPA) carried out an investigation (January - April 2020) whose objectives were: to identify the possible routes of introduction of the virus ; to describe the characteristics of the epidemic and to describe and model the dynamics of the epidemic's spread., Methods: A telephone survey was conducted. The biological diagnoses were transmitted by the medical antennas. A time/place/population analysis was carried out, as well as the description of the clinical pictures with their exposure factors. The instantaneous reproduction rate Rt of the epidemic was modeled. A spatial analysis of the epidemic on board was carried out. Forty-three viral genomes were sequenced and compared to the reference bases., Results: 0f 1767 sailors, 1568 (89%) participated in the telephone survey and 1064 (67.9%) were confirmed cases. Four patient profiles have been described: asymptomatic (13.0%); non-specific symptomatic (8.1%); specific symptomatic (76.3%); severe cases (2.6%). In univariate and multivariate analysis, age, overweight and obesity were significantly associated with the risk of having a severe form. Smoking was a protective factor. The evolution kinetics of Rt was in favor of an introduction of the virus at the end of February with a reintroduction during the stopover in Brest. Analysis of viral genomes ruled out introduction and spread of a single strain., Conclusion: Despite the control measures taken, an epidemic occurred. The often pauci-symptomatic clinical pictures resulted in a delay in identification. CESPA was able to carry out this epidemiological investigation within a highly constrained timeframe, showing all the interest of its integrated public health model., (© 2022 l'Académie nationale de médecine. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 emergence was a threat for armed forces. A COVID-19 outbreak occurred on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle from mid-March to mid-April 2020.AimTo understand how the virus was introduced, circulated then stopped circulation, risk factors for infection and severity, and effectiveness of preventive measures.MethodsWe considered the entire crew as a cohort and collected personal, clinical, biological, and epidemiological data. We performed viral genome sequencing and searched for SARS-CoV-2 in the environment.ResultsThe attack rate was 65% (1,148/1,767); 1,568 (89%) were included. The male:female ratio was 6.9, and median age was 29 years (IQR: 24-36). We examined four clinical profiles: asymptomatic (13.0%), non-specific symptomatic (8.1%), specific symptomatic (76.3%), and severe (i.e. requiring oxygen therapy, 2.6%). Active smoking was not associated with severe COVID-19; age and obesity were risk factors. The instantaneous reproduction rate (R t ) and viral sequencing suggested several introductions of the virus with 4 of 5 introduced strains from within France, with an acceleration of R t when lifting preventive measures. Physical distancing prevented infection (adjusted OR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.40-0.76). Transmission may have stopped when the proportion of infected personnel was large enough to prevent circulation (65%; 95% CI: 62-68).ConclusionNon-specific clinical pictures of COVID-19 delayed detection of the outbreak. The lack of an isolation ward made it difficult to manage transmission; the outbreak spread until a protective threshold was reached. Physical distancing was effective when applied. Early surveillance with adapted prevention measures should prevent such an outbreak.

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -vectors of Plasmodium parasites- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection varies geographically around the world. Yet, its underlying mechanisms are unknown. Using a nationally representative population-based sample from all 58 administrative divisions in Cameroon, we examined the association between median maternal age at first childbirth in a preceding generation, a proxy for the frequency of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HBV in a region, and the risk of chronic HBV infection, defined as positive surface antigen (HBsAg), in the index generation., Methods: We estimated a division-specific median maternal age at first childbirth using Demographic Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in 1991, 1998, 2004, and 2011. We tested HBsAg in 2011 DHS participants. We used maps to display spatial variation., Results: In 14 150 participants (median age, 27 years; 51% females), the overall weighted prevalence of HBsAg was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0 to 12.8), with a wide geographical variation across the divisions (range, 6.3%-23.7%). After adjusting for confounders and spatial dependency, lower maternal age at first childbirth was significantly associated with positive HBsAg at the division level (β, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.52) and at the individual level (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.39). A similar ecological correlation was observed across other African countries., Conclusions: The significant association between the maternal age at first childbirth and HBsAg positivity suggests a crucial role of MTCT in maintaining high HBV endemicity in some areas in Cameroon. This underlines an urgent need to effectively prevent MTCT in sub-Saharan Africa., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The management of bleeding originating from the guttural pouch (GP) has a high success rate, but the resolution of the macroscopic inflammatory lesions in the case of mycosis (GPM) is highly variable; the resolution of neurological disorders is inconstant and challenging. Objectives: Our aim was to test the feasibility and safety of topical oxygen therapy (TOT) in horses after induction of GPM and in cases with naturally occurring disease. Study design: This study was an in vivo experimental and retrospective two-phase study. Methods: During phase 1, the pilot study, both GPs were inoculated with Aspergillus fumigatus . One GP was randomly assigned to receive one to four TOT 30 min sessions with 100% medical oxygen at 9 L/min. Follow-up endoscopic images were assessed for scoring macroscopic inflammatory lesions of the pharynx and both GPs. In phase 2, the clinical study, TOT was administered for 45 to 60 min at 15 L/min in six horses presenting with GPM. Results: In phase 1, TOT administration was easy to perform in the standing horse with no adverse effects. After more than two administrations, macroscopic inflammatory lesions decreased more quickly in size in the treated GP. In phase 2, horses were treated with TOT only ( n = 1) or combined with a transarterial coil embolization (TACE) procedure ( n = 5). After TOT and discharge from the hospital, nasal discharge resolved in three horses, and improvement was noted in the fourth one. Between days 2 and 10 after admission, upper respiratory tract endoscopy (URTE) indicated size reduction and alteration in the appearance of all the macroscopic inflammatory lesions. The partial or total recovery of neurological disorders (2/4 laryngeal hemiparesis, 3/5 dysphagia, 1/2 dorsal displacement of the soft palate (DDSP), and 1/1 Horner's syndrome) was recorded. Main limitations: In phase 1, the small number of horses did not allow for statistically significant conclusions; in phase 2, clinical signs at admission varied between horses, which made comparison difficult. Conclusions: In adult horses, TOT alone or in combination with TACE is feasible and safe with a propensity to reverse the course and the progression of inflammatory lesions without additional local or systemic treatment.

Background: For the purpose of epidemiological surveillance, the Hospital University Institute Méditerranée infection has implemented since 2013 a system named MIDaS, based on the systematic collection of routine activity materials, including MALDI-TOF spectra, and results. The objective of this paper is to present the pipeline we use for processing MALDI-TOF spectra during epidemiological surveillance in order to disclose proteinic cues that may suggest the existence of epidemic processes in complement of incidence surveillance. It is illustrated by the analysis of an alarm observed for Streptococcus pneumoniae., Methods: The MALDI-TOF spectra analysis process looks for the existence of clusters of spectra characterized by a double time and proteinic close proximity. This process relies on several specific methods aiming at contrasting and clustering the spectra, presenting graphically the results for an easy epidemiological interpretation, and for determining the discriminating spectra peaks with their possible identification using reference databases., Results: The use of this pipeline in the case of an alarm issued for Streptococcus pneumoniae has made it possible to reveal a cluster of spectra with close proteinic and temporal distances, characterized by the presence of three discriminant peaks (5228.8, 5917.8, and 8974.3 m/z) and the absence of peak 4996.9 m/z. A further investigation on UniProt KB showed that peak 5228.8 is possibly an OxaA protein and that the absent peak may be a transposase., Conclusion: This example shows this pipeline may support a quasi-real time identification and characterization of clusters that provide essential information on a potentially epidemic situation. It brings valuable information for epidemiological sensemaking and for deciding on the continuation of the epidemiological investigation, in particular the involving of additional costly resources to confirm or invalidate the alarm., Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03626987., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Dysbiosis, developed upon antibiotic administration, results in loss of diversity and shifts in the abundance of gut microbes. Doxycycline is a tetracycline antibiotic widely used for malaria prophylaxis in travelers. We prospectively studied changes in the fecal microbiota of 15 French soldiers after a 4-month mission to Mali with doxycycline malaria prophylaxis, compared to changes in the microbiota of 28 soldiers deployed to Iraq and Lebanon without doxycycline. Stool samples were collected with clinical data before and after missions, and 16S rRNA sequenced on MiSeq targeting the V3-V4 region. Doxycycline exposure resulted in increased alpha-biodiversity and no significant beta-dissimilarities. It led to expansion in Bacteroides , with a reduction in Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus , as in the group deployed without doxycycline. Doxycycline did not alter the community structure and was specifically associated with a reduction in Escherichia and expression of Rothia . Differences in the microbiota existed at baseline between military units but not within the studied groups. This group-effect highlighted the risk of a Simpson paradox in microbiome studies.

In late 2019, an epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 broke out in central China. Within a few months, this new virus had spread right across the globe, officially being classified as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. In France, which was also being affected by the virus, the government applied specific epidemiological management strategies and introduced unprecedented public health measures. This article describes the outbreak management system that was applied within the French military and, more specifically, analyzes an outbreak of COVID-19 that occurred on board a nuclear aircraft carrier. We applied the AcciMap systemic analysis approach to understand the course of events that led to the outbreak and identify the relevant human and organizational failures. Results highlight causal factors at several levels of the outbreak management system. They reveal problems with the benchmarks used for diagnosis and decision-making, and underscore the importance of good communication between different levels. We discuss ways of improving epidemiological management in military context., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The French military personnel may be exposed to leptospirosis during their training or on duty on the field in continental France, and most of all, in intertropical areas in the French departments and in Africa. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of leptospirosis from epidemiological surveillance and cases data from 2004 to 2018, and to propose tools to assess leptospirosis risk prior to any mission or leisure activity., Method: A retrospective epidemiological study on leptospirosis cases among French Armed Forces was conducted. More data were collected for 2 clusters in Martinique, as most of leptospirosis cases among French military personnel were identified in Martinique., Results: Eighty-eight cases of leptospirosis were reported, 15 cases in continental France and 73 cases in overseas (including 42 cases in the French West Indies). The global leptospirosis incidence rate in continental France was 0.3/100,000 person-years and in overseas 24/100,000 person-years with the higher incidence rate in Martinique (99/100,000 person-years) and in Mayotte (36.9/100,000 person-years). For the clusters in Martinique, between January and June 2009, 7 cases were declared; between 2016 and 2018, 16 cases were reported, high proportions of severe cardiac, renal and neurological forms (6/16) and hospitalizations (9/16)., Conclusion: The occupational risk is real in French Armed Forces, particularly in malaria-free intertropical areas where chemoprophylaxis by doxycycline is not applied. Prevention can be optimized by the use of practical tools such as tables and cartographies, leading to a better leptospirosis risk assessment and application of preventive recommendations., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Decision-making during critical outbreak management may require standard strategies, but also more creative ones. Our goal was to characterize the expert decision processes that take place during critical situations, where rule-based strategies and usual procedures cannot be satisfactorily applied. More specifically, we focused on the strategies experts use to deal with epidemiological problems, depending on the complexity of the situation. To this end, we carried out a simulated outbreak alert, to place two experts in a situation of epidemiological problem management, based on usual practice but also conducive to implementing creative solutions. To analyze the data, we considered not only the relevance of the solutions proposed by the experts, but also the four creativity criteria defined by Torrance (fluency, flexibility, elaboration and originality). Results allowed us to identify similarities but also differences between the solutions proposed by the experts, depending on their level of experience in this area., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Bacterial identification at subspecies level is critical in clinical care and epidemiological investigations due to the different epidemic potentialities of a species. For this purpose, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization - time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) has been proposed in place of molecular genotyping, but with some result discrepancies. The aim of this work is to methodically mine the expression diversities of MALDI-TOF bacterial species spectra and their possible latent organization in order to evaluate their subspecies specific expression. Peak expression diversities of MALDI-TOF spectra coming from routine identifications have been analyzed using Hill numbers, rarefaction curves, and peak clustering. Some size effect critical thresholds were estimated using change point analyses. We included 167,528 spectra corresponding to 405 species. Species spectra diversities have a broad size-dependent variability, which may be influenced by the kind of sampling. Peak organization is characterized by the presence of a main cluster made of the most frequently co-occurring peaks and around 20 secondary clusters grouping less frequently co-occurring peaks. The 35 most represented species in our sample are distributed in two groups depending on the focusing of their protein synthesis activity on the main cluster or not. Our results may advocate some analogy with genomics studies of bacteria, with a main species-related cluster of co-occurring peaks and several secondary clusters, which may host peaks able to discriminate bacterial subgroups. This systematic study of the expression diversities of MALDI-TOF spectra shows that latent organization of co-occurring peaks supports subspecies discrimination and may explain why studies on MALDI-TOF-based typing exhibit some result divergences., (Copyright © 2020 Giraud-Gatineau, Texier, Garnotel, Raoult and Chaudet.)

Objective: To investigate the distribution and risk factors of hepatitis delta virus (HDV) infection in Cameroon., Design: We tested for hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) and anti-HDV antibody 14 150 samples collected during a survey whose participants were representative of the Cameroonian adult population. The samples had already been tested for hepatitis C virus and HIV antibodies., Results: Overall, 1621/14 150 (weighted prevalence=11.9%) participants were HBsAg positive, among whom 224/1621 (10.6%) were anti-HDV positive. In 2011, the estimated numbers of HBsAg positive and HDV seropositives were 1 160 799 and 122 910 in the 15-49 years age group, respectively. There were substantial regional variations in prevalence of chronic HBV infection, but even more so for HDV (from 1% to 54%). In multivariable analysis, HDV seropositivity was independently associated with living with an HDV-seropositive person (OR=8.80; 95% CI: 3.23 to 24.0), being HIV infected (OR=2.82; 95% CI: 1.32 to 6.02) and living in the South (latitude <4°N) while having rural/outdoor work (OR=15.2; 95% CI: 8.35 to 27.6, when compared with living on latitude ≥4°N and not having rural/outdoor work)., Conclusion: We found evidence for effective intra-household transmission of HDV in Cameroon. We also identified large differences in prevalence between regions, with cases concentrated in forested areas close to the Equator, as described in other tropical areas. The reasons underlying these geographical variations in HDV prevalence deserve further investigation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that periodically reemerges as small outbreaks in geographically limited foci where the causative agent Yersinia pestis may reside in soil. We analyzed a dataset of 1.005 carefully documented plague cases that were georeferenced over 113 years in peer-reviewed literature in the contiguous United States. Plotting outbreaks by counties defined as plague foci on geographical maps, we observed a significant co-localization of plague outbreaks with high soil salinity measured by an electric conductivity of >4 dS/ m -1 and aridity measured by an aridity index <0.5. Thus, we identified aridity and soil salinity as significantly associated with ecological risk factors for relapsing plague in the contiguous United States. These results reveal two evolutive parameters that are partially associated with anthropic activities, complicating the epidemiology of plague in the contiguous United States. Exploiting aridity and soil salinity data may help in the surveillance of evolving plague foci in the contiguous United States.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is an emerging zoonotic arbovirus with a complex cycle of transmission that makes difficult the prediction of its expansion. Recent outbreaks outside Africa have led to rediscover the human disease but it remains poorly known. The wide spectrum of acute and delayed manifestations with potential unfavorable outcome much complicate the management of suspected cases and prediction of morbidity and mortality during an outbreak. We reviewed literature data on bio-clinical characteristics and treatments of RVF human illness. We identified gaps in the field and provided a practical algorithm to assist clinicians in the cases assessment, determination of setting of care and prolonged follow-up.

On 20 April 2017, an outbreak of histamine food poisoning occurred in a French military unit located near Paris. A total of 40 cases were identified (attack rate: 16.6%). We conducted a case-control study on 31 cases and 63 controls. Multivariate analysis pointed to cooked yellowfin tuna fillet as the very likely source of food poisoning (odds ratio = 156.8; 95% confidence interval: 18.4-1,338.4). The fresh yellowfin tuna was from Reunion Island and was supplied vacuum-sealed and packed with ice at the principal food market of Paris. No cold chain issues could be established in the upstream and downstream supply chains. Histamine concentration was found to be 1,720 mg/kg in leftover raw tuna, and 3,720 mg/kg in control cooked tuna, well above the threshold limit values defined by European regulations (200 mg/kg). The presence of Klebsiella variicola and Pantoea agglomerans, microorganisms of the Enterobacterales order that have been reported to produce histamine, was confirmed in the leftover raw tuna. This type of food poisoning is rarely recognised and confirmed. We describe the outbreak to highlight the specific key points of this type of investigation.

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported that one of the authors' names is spelled incorrectly.

Background: When outbreak detection algorithms (ODAs) are considered individually, the task of outbreak detection can be seen as a classification problem and the ODA as a sensor providing a binary decision (outbreak yes or no) for each day of surveillance. When they are considered jointly (in cases where several ODAs analyze the same surveillance signal), the outbreak detection problem should be treated as a decision fusion (DF) problem of multiple sensors., Methods: This study evaluated the benefit for a decisions support system of using DF methods (fusing multiple ODA decisions) compared to using a single method of outbreak detection. For each day, we merged the decisions of six ODAs using 5 DF methods (two voting methods, logistic regression, CART and Bayesian network - BN). Classical metrics of accuracy, prediction and timelines were used during the evaluation steps., Results: In our results, we observed the greatest gain (77%) in positive predictive value compared to the best ODA if we used DF methods with a learning step (BN, logistic regression, and CART)., Conclusions: To identify disease outbreaks in systems using several ODAs to analyze surveillance data, we recommend using a DF method based on a Bayesian network. This method is at least equivalent to the best of the algorithms considered, regardless of the situation faced by the system. For those less familiar with this kind of technique, we propose that logistic regression be used when a training dataset is available.

Background: Differential diagnosis between acute-phase Zika and dengue is challenging because of a similar clinical presentation and the lack of available molecular diagnosis tools in most of endemic areas., Objectives: Our study aimed to evaluate the use of simple laboratory parameters to differentiate these infections., Methods: We retrospectively compared simple hematology and biochemistry values in 81 and 341 patients with confirmed Zika and dengue, respectively, collected from June 2013 to March 2014 during the French Polynesia outbreaks., Results: Thrombocytopenia, neutropenia, leukopenia, lymphopenia, and elevated aspartate aminotransaminases were significantly more frequent in dengue than in Zika (p < 0.001). Platelets <100 × 109/L, neutrophils <0.5 × 109/L, lymphocytes <0.5 × 109/L, and aspartate aminotransaminases >100 IU/mL were found in dengue but not in Zika. The positive predictive value of the -association of leukocytes <4 × 109/L + lymphocytes <1 × 109/L + aspartate aminotransaminases >40 IU/mL for the diagnosis of dengue was 90%, with an accuracy of 82.4%., Conclusion: For the differential diagnosis between acute-phase Zika and dengue, there is no specific standard laboratory pattern. We identified cutoff values and a combination of laboratory parameters that are a strong argument against Zika and in favor of dengue., (© 2019 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Introduction: Little is known about virologic responses to early antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected infants in resource-limited settings. We estimated the probability of achieving viral suppression within 2 years of ART initiation and investigated the factors associated with success., Methods: We analyzed all 190 infants from the Cameroon Pediacam who initiated ART by 12 months of age. The main outcome measure was viral suppression (<1000 copies/mL) on at least 1 occasion; the other outcome measures considered were viral suppression (<400 copies/mL) on at least 1 occasion and confirmed viral suppression (both thresholds) on 2 consecutive occasions. We used competing-risks regression for a time-to-event analysis to estimate the cumulative incidence of outcomes and univariate and multivariate models to identify risk factors., Results: During the first 24 months of ART, 20.0% (38) of the infants died, giving a mortality rate of 11.9 deaths per 100 infant-years (95% confidence interval: 8.1-15.7). The probability of achieving a viral load below 1000 or 400 copies/mL was 80.0% (69.0-81.0) and 78.0% (66.0-79.0), respectively. The probability of virologic suppression (with these 2 thresholds) on 2 consecutive occasions was 67.0% (56.0-70.0) and 60.0% (49.0-64.0), respectively. Virologic success was associated with not having missed any doses of treatment before the visit, but not with socioeconomic and living conditions., Conclusion: Many early treated children failed to achieve virologic suppression, likely due to a combination of adherence difficulties, drug dosing and viral resistance, which highlights the need for routine viral load monitoring. The high infant mortality despite early ART initiation needs to be addressed in sub-Saharan countries.

Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

Background: The measure of new drug- or vaccine-based approaches for malaria control is based on direct membrane feeding assays (DMFAs) where gametocyte-infected blood samples are offered to mosquitoes through an artificial feeder system. Gametocyte donors are identified by the microscopic detection and quantification of malaria blood stages on blood films prepared using either capillary or venous blood. However, parasites are known to sequester in the microvasculature and this phenomenon may alter accurate detection of parasites in blood films. The blood source may then impact the success of mosquito feeding experiments and investigations are needed for the implementation of DMFAs under natural conditions., Methods: Thick blood smears were prepared from blood obtained from asymptomatic children attending primary schools in the vicinity of Mfou (Cameroon) over four transmission seasons. Parasite densities were determined microscopically from capillary and venous blood for 137 naturally-infected gametocyte carriers. The effect of the blood source on gametocyte and asexual stage densities was then assessed by fitting cumulative link mixed models (CLMM). DMFAs were performed to compare the infectiousness of gametocytes from the different blood sources to mosquitoes., Results: Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual stages among asymptomatic children aged from 4 to 15 years was 51.8% (2116/4087). The overall prevalence of P. falciparum gametocyte carriage was 8.9% and varied from one school to another. No difference in the density of gametocyte and asexual stages was found between capillary and venous blood. Attempts to perform DMFAs with capillary blood failed., Conclusions: Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite densities do not differ between capillary and venous blood in asymptomatic subjects for both gametocyte and trophozoite stages. This finding suggests that the blood source should not interfere with transmission efficiency in DMFAs.

Introduction: Epidemiologists manage outbreak identification and confirmation by means of a "situation diagnosis", which involves validating (or invalidating) an alarm (signal identified as abnormal) as an alert (a real, characterized outbreak) and proposing the first countermeasures. This work investigates how uncertainty is materialized during this stage, and how experts develop strategies to address this uncertainty with the help of an early warning system., Methods: We built an experiment using a simulation platform with a scenario involving both a natural and an intentional outbreak. Observations of expert activities were recorded and formalised using a specific task analysis method. These formatted data were then categorized by applying RAWFS (Reduction- Assumption - Weighing - Forestalling- Suppression) heuristics., Results: We quantified uncertainty and the mechanisms involved. During the situation diagnosis, two sorts of uncertainty were characterized: practice-imposed uncertainty and situation-imposed uncertainty. We did not find either weighing pros and cons or suppression strategies in this area of expertise, but highlight the predominance of coping strategies that relied on reduction (66,4%) and assumption-based reasoning. We observed a predominance of the phone (89%) to cope with uncertainty and among electronic tools, the surveillance system plays a major role (69% of cases) and is mainly used in reduction strategies. We detail tools and systems used to support experts in their coping strategy., Conclusion: We confirmed that a surveillance system must include different features that provide relevant information to help users reduce uncertainty and thus support their decision making. In that perspective, the flow diagram and proposal presented in this study can help prioritize the necessary changes to surveillance system design., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) is a widely disseminated lymphotropic herpes virus implicated in benign and malignant disorders. In transplant patients, immunosuppressive drugs (cyclosporine) diminish control of EBV replication, potentially leading to lymphoproliferative disorders (LPD). Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have impaired control of EBV infection and have EBV load ten times higher than controls. As post transplant patients, patients with RA have increased risk of developing lymphomas. Immunosuppressive drugs used to treat RA (conventional disease modifying drugs cDMARDs or biologics bDMARDs) could enhance the risk of developing LPD in RA patients. We have previously shown that long term treatment with Methotrexate and/or TNF alpha antagonists does not increase EBV load in RA. Our objective was to monitor the Epstein-Barr Virus load in RA patients treated with Abatacept (CTLA4 Ig), a T cell coactivation inhibitor, and Tocilizumab, an anti IL6 receptor antibody., Methods: EBV load in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of 55 patients under Abatacept (in 34% associated with Methotrexate) and 35 patients under Tocilizumab (in 37% associated with Methotrexate) was monitored for durations ranging from 6 months to 3 years by real time PCR. The influences of treatment duration and disease activity score 28 (DAS28) index on EBV load were analyzed., Results: Abatacept did not significantly modify EBV load over time. Tocilizumab significantly diminished EBV load over time. No patient (of 90) developed EBV associated lymphoma., Conclusion: Long term treatment with Abatacept or Tocilizumab does not increase EBV load in the PBMNCs of patients with RA.

Highly sensitive and field deployable molecular diagnostic tools are critically needed for detecting submicroscopic, yet transmissible levels of malaria parasites prevalent in malaria endemic countries worldwide. A reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) assay was developed and evaluated in comparison with thick blood smear microscopy, an antigen-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and an in-house RT-PCR targeting the same RT-LAMP transcript. The optimized assay detected Plasmodium falciparum infections in as little as 0.25ng of total parasite RNA, and exhibited a detection limit of 0.08 parasites/ μL when tested directly on infected whole blood lysates, or ~0.0008 parasites/ μL when using RNA extracts. Assay positivity was observed as early as eight minutes from initiation of the RT-LAMP and in most cases the reaction was complete before twenty minutes. Clinical evaluation of the assay on 132 suspected malaria cases resulted in a positivity rate of 90% for RT-LAMP using extracted RNA, and 85% when using whole blood lysates. The positivity rates were 70% for P. falciparum-specific RDT, 83% for RT-PCR, and 74% for thick blood smear microscopy (Mean parasite density = 36,986 parasites/ μL). Concordance rates between the developed RT-LAMP and comparator tests were greater than 75%, the lowest being with light microscopy (78%, McNemar's test: P = 0.0002), and the highest was with RT-PCR (87%, McNemar's test: P = 0.0523). Compared to reference RT-PCR, assay sensitivity was 90% for RT-LAMP on whole blood, and 96% for RT-LAMP using corresponding RNA extracts. Electricity-free heaters were further developed and evaluated in comparison with a battery-operated isothermal amplification machine for use with the developed test in resource-limited settings. Taken together, the data highlight the benefits of targeting high abundant RNA transcripts in molecular diagnosis, as well as the potential usefulness of the developed RT-LAMP-assay in malaria diagnosis in low to high parasite density settings., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Competing Interests: G. Texier déclare avoir été prise en charge lors de congrès par Mundipharma, Grunenthal, Prostrakan et Takeda. F. Chaumier déclare avoir été pris en charge lors de congrès par Amgen, Mundipharma, Chugaï, Prostrakan, Archimèdes et Grunenthal. D. Mallet et G. Hirsch déclarent n’avoir aucun lien d’intérêts. V. Morel déclare avoir été pris en charge lors de congrès par Mundipharma.

Competing Interests: G. Texier déclare avoir été prise en charge lors de congrès par Mundipharma, Grunenthal, Prostrakan et Takeda. F. Chaumier déclare avoir été pris en charge lors de congrès par Amgen, Mundipharma, Chugaï, Prostrakan, Archimèdes et Grunenthal. D. Mallet et G. Hirsch déclarent n’avoir aucun lien d’intérêts. V. Morel déclare avoir été pris en charge lors de congrès par Mundipharma.

Importance: As older adults living in nursing homes are at a high risk of adverse drug-related events, medications with a poor benefit/risk ratio or with a safer alternative should be avoided., Objectives: To systematically evaluate the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication use in nursing home residents., Evidence Review: We searched in PubMed and EMBASE databases (1990-2015) for studies reporting the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication use in people ≥60 years of age living in nursing homes. The risk of bias was assessed with an adapted version of the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) checklist., Findings: A total of 91 articles were assessed for eligibility, and 48 met our inclusion criteria. These articles reported the findings from 43 distinct studies, of which 26 presented point prevalence estimates of potentially inappropriate medication use (227,534 nursing home residents). The overall weighted point prevalence of potentially inappropriate medication use in nursing homes was 43.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 37.3%-49.1%], increasing from 30.3% in studies conducted during 1990-1999 to 49.8% in studies conducted after 2005 (P < .001). Point prevalence estimates reported in European countries were found to be higher (49.0%, 95% CI 42.5-55.5) than those reported in North America (26.8%, 95% CI 16.5-37.1) or in other countries (29.8%, 95% CI 19.3-40.3). In addition, 18 studies accounting for 326,562 nursing home residents presented 20 distinct period prevalence estimates ranging from 2.3% to 50.3%. The total number of prescribed medications was consistently reported as the main driving factor for potentially inappropriate medications use., Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review shows that almost one-half of nursing home residents are exposed to potentially inappropriate medications and suggests an increase prevalence over time. Effective interventions to optimize drug prescribing in nursing home facilities are, therefore, needed., (Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Most studies of epidemic detection focus on their start and rarely on the whole signal or the end of the epidemic. In some cases, it may be necessary to retrospectively identify outbreak signals from surveillance data. Our study aims at evaluating the ability of change point analysis (CPA) methods to locate the whole disease outbreak signal. We will compare our approach with the results coming from experts' signal inspections, considered as the gold standard method., Methods: We simulated 840 time series, each of which includes an epidemic-free baseline (7 options) and a type of epidemic (4 options). We tested the ability of 4 CPA methods (Max-likelihood, Kruskall-Wallis, Kernel, Bayesian) methods and expert inspection to identify the simulated outbreaks. We evaluated the performances using metrics including delay, accuracy, bias, sensitivity, specificity and Bayesian probability of correct classification (PCC)., Results: A minimum of 15 h was required for experts for analyzing the 840 curves and a maximum of 25 min for a CPA algorithm. The Kernel algorithm was the most effective overall in terms of accuracy, bias and global decision (PCC = 0.904), compared to PCC of 0.848 for human expert review., Conclusions: For the aim of retrospectively identifying the start and end of a disease outbreak, in the absence of human resources available to do this work, we recommend using the Kernel change point model. And in case of experts' availability, we also suggest to supplement the Human expertise with a CPA, especially when the signal noise difference is below 0.

Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes--environmental and water bug transmission--to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) have received increasing attention in recent years by the global heath community, as they cumulatively constitute substantial burdens of disease as well as barriers for economic development. A number of common tropical diseases such as malaria, hookworm or schistosomiasis have well-documented economic impacts. However, much less is known about the population-level impacts of diseases that are rare but associated with high disability burden, which represent a great number of tropical diseases. Using an individual-based model of Buruli ulcer (BU), we demonstrate that, through feedbacks between health and economic status, such NTDs can have a significant impact on the economic structure of human populations even at low incidence levels. While average wealth is only marginally affected by BU, the economic conditions of certain subpopulations are impacted sufficiently to create changes in measurable population-level inequality. A reduction of the disability burden caused by BU can thus maximize the economic growth of the poorest subpopulations and reduce significantly the economic inequalities introduced by the disease in endemic regions., (© 2015 The Author(s).)

Background: Viral load is still the marker of choice for monitoring adherence to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) and confirming the success of HIV treatment. Unfortunately it is difficult to access in many resource-poor settings. We aimed to measure the performance of caregiver reporting adherence for detecting virological failure in routine practice during the first 2 years after cART initiation in infants., Methods: PEDIACAM is an ongoing prospective cohort study including HIV1-infected infants diagnosed before 7 months of age between November 2007 and October 2011 in Cameroon. Adherence was assessed using a questionnaire administered every 3 months from cART initiation; the HIV-RNA viral load was determined at the same visits. Virological failure was defined as having a viral load ≥ 1000 cp/mL at 3 and 12 months after cART initiation or having a viral load ≥ 400 cp/mL at 24 months after cART initiation. The performance of each current missed and cumulative missed dose defined according to adherence as reported by caregiver was assessed using the viral load as the gold standard., Results: cART was initiated at a median age of 4 months (IQR: 3-6) in the 167 infants included. The cumulative missed dose showed the best overall performance for detecting virological failure after 12 months of cART (AUC test, p = 0.005, LR + =4.4 and LR- = 0.4). Whatever the adherence reporting criterion, the negative predictive value was high (NPV ≥ 75%) 12 and 24 months after cART initiation, whereas the positive predictive value was low (PPV ≤ 50%)., Conclusions: The adherence questionnaire administered by the health care provider to the infants' caregivers is not reliable for detecting virological failure in routine practice: its positive predictive value is low. However, the cumulative missed dose measurement may be a reliable predictor of virological success, particularly after 12 months of cART, given its high negative predictive value.

To determine when risk for Buruli ulcer is highest, we examined seasonal patterns in a highly disease-endemic area of Cameroon during 2002-2012. Cases peaked in March, suggesting that risk is highest during the high rainy season. During and after this season, populations should increase protective behaviors, and case detection efforts should be intensified.

Background: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a cause of potential bias in clinical studies. Differing LTFU between study groups may affect internal validity and generalizability of the results. Understanding reasons for LTFU could help improve follow-up in clinical studies and thereby contribute to goals for prevention, treatment, or research being achieved. We explored factors associated with LTFU of mother-child pairs after inclusion in the ANRS 12140-Pediacam study., Methods: From November 2007 to October 2010, 4104 infants including 2053 born to HIV-infected mothers and 2051 born to HIV-uninfected mothers matched individually on gender and study site were enrolled during the first week of life in three referral hospitals in Cameroon and scheduled for visits at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age. Visits were designated 1, 2 and 3, in chronological order, irrespective of the child's age at the time of the visit. Mother-child pairs were considered lost to follow-up if they never returned for a clinical visit within the first six months after inclusion. Uni- and multivariable logistic regression were adjusted on matching variables to identify factors associated with LTFU according to maternal HIV status., Results: LTFU among HIV-unexposed infants was four times higher than among HIV-exposed infants (36.7% vs 9.8%, p < 0.001). Emergency caesarean section (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 2.46 95% Confidence Interval (CI) [1.47-4.13]), young maternal age (aOR = 2.29, 95% CI [1.18-4.46]), and absence of antiretroviral treatment for prophylaxis (aOR = 3.45, 95% CI [2.30-5.19]) were independently associated with LTFU among HIV-exposed infants. Factors associated with LTFU among HIV-unexposed infants included young maternal age (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI [1.36-2.81]), low maternal education level (aOR = 2.77, 95% CI [1.95-3.95]) and housewife/unemployed mothers (aOR = 1.56, 95% CI [1.16-2.11])., Conclusion: Failure to return for at least one scheduled clinical visit is a problem especially among HIV-unexposed infants included in studies involving HIV-exposed infants. Factors associated with this type of LTFU included maternal characteristics, socio-economic status, quality of antenatal care and obstetrical context of delivery. Enhanced counselling in antenatal and intrapartum services is required for mothers at high risk of failure to return for follow-up visits.

Background: An understanding of the factors driving the distribution of pathogens is useful in preventing disease. Often we achieve this understanding at a local microhabitat scale; however the larger scale processes are often neglected. This can result in misleading inferences about the distribution of the pathogen, inhibiting our ability to manage the disease. One such disease is Buruli ulcer, an emerging neglected tropical disease afflicting many thousands in Africa, caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Herein, we aim to describe the larger scale landscape process describing the distribution of M. ulcerans., Methodology: Following extensive sampling of the community of aquatic macroinvertebrates in Cameroon, we select the 5 dominant insect Orders, and conduct an ecological niche model to describe how the distribution of M. ulcerans positive insects changes according to land cover and topography. We then explore the generalizability of the results by testing them against an independent dataset collected in a second endemic region, French Guiana., Principal Findings: We find that the distribution of the bacterium in Cameroon is accurately described by the land cover and topography of the watershed, that there are notable seasonal differences in distribution, and that the Cameroon model does not predict the distribution of M. ulcerans in French Guiana., Conclusions/significance: Future studies of M. ulcerans would benefit from consideration of local structure of the local stream network in future sampling, and further work is needed on the reasons for notable differences in the distribution of this species from one region to another. This work represents a first step in the identification of large-scale environmental drivers of this species, for the purposes of disease risk mapping.