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Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI). The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. We find that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands. We illustrate how this information can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity and Paris Agreement Climate Frameworks are upheld. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expanding human pressure has reduced natural habitats globally and motivated strategies to conserve remaining natural habitats. Decisions about conservation on private lands, however, are typically made by local stakeholders who are motivated by the elements of nature they most highly value. Thus, national prioritization for conservation should be complemented by local analysis of species or habitats that most influence local landowner decisions. We demonstrate within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem how quantitative mapping of wildlife species that are highly valued by local residents can be integrated with indices of ecosystem integrity to prioritize private lands for conservation. We found that natural vegetation cover (NVC) comprised 81% of the private lands. Some watersheds have lost 6% of NVC since 2001 and developed lands now cover >40% of their areas. Locations high in ecological value, elk habitat, and grizzly habitat occurred in different biophysical settings. Consequently, only 2% of the NVC supports high levels of all three biodiversity measures and 26% of this area was within conservation easements. The remaining areas of high biodiversity value that are unprotected are priorities for conservation. We suggest that national-scale conservation planning will be most effective on private lands if additional within-ecoregion analyses are done on the elements of biodiversity that are most valued by local people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conserving mountains is important for protecting biodiversity because they have high beta diversity and endemicity, facilitate species movement, and provide numerous ecosystem benefits for people. Mountains are often thought to have lower levels of human modification and contain more protected area than surrounding lowlands. To examine this, we compared biogeographic attributes of the largest, contiguous, mountainous region on each continent. In each region, we generated detailed ecosystems based on Köppen−Geiger climate regions, ecoregions, and detailed landforms. We quantified anthropogenic fragmentation of these ecosystems based on human modification classes of large wild areas, shared lands, and cities and farms. Human modification for half the mountainous regions approached the global average, and fragmentation reduced the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems up to 40%. Only one‐third of the major mountainous regions currently meet the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of 30% coverage for all protected areas; furthermore, the vast majority of ecosystem types present in mountains were underrepresented in protected areas. By measuring ecological integrity and human‐caused fragmentation with a detailed representation of mountain ecosystems, our approach facilitates tracking progress toward achieving conservation goals and better informs mountain conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid‐century change is multi‐generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with 'stepping‐stones' between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present‐day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid‐century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change‐driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo‐climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate‐driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present‐day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate‐adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present‐day land uses, our approach reveals "no‐regrets" pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First, Venter et al. ([4]) visually overlay the 2009 human footprint (HFP) "no pressure" areas (Venter et al., [5]) with HM zero values and notes high incongruence. Areas are in blue where HFP = 0 and HM /= 0; yellow where HM = 0 and HFP /= 0; and red where HFP = 0 and (i) HM = 0; (ii) HM <= 0.0018 (the median value in HFP = 0), (iii) HM <= 0.10 (the median HM value globally and threshold used for "low modified" lands in Kennedy et al., [2]). Despite differences in the spatial distributions between HM and HFP maps at finer scales (Figure map insets), the correlation of land modification patterns remain fairly similar at coarse scales (Kennedy et al., [2]). [Extracted from the article]

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Context: Projected increases in human population size are expected to increase forest loss and fragmentation in the next century at the expense of forest-dwelling species.Objectives: We estimated landscape carrying capacity (Nk) for Ovenbirds in urban, suburban, exurban, and rural areas for the years 2000 and 2050, and compared changes in Nk with changes in occupancy probability.Methods: Maximum clique analysis, a branch of mathematical graph theory, was used to estimate landscape carrying capacity, the maximum potential number of territories a given landscape is capable of supporting (Nk). We used occupancy probability maps as inputs for calculating Ovenbird Nk in the northeastern USA and a spatially explicit growth model to forecast future development patterns in 2050. We compared occupancy probability with estimates of Nk for urban, suburban, exurban, and rural areas for the years 2000 and 2050.Results: In response to human population growth and development, Ovenbird Nk was predicted to decrease 23% in urban landscapes, 28% in suburban landscapes, 43% in exurban landscapes, and 20% in rural landscapes. These decreases far exceeded decreases in mean occupancy probabilities that ranged between 2 and 5% across the same development categories. Thus, small decreases in occupancy probability between 2000 and 2050 translated to much larger decreases in Nk.Conclusions: For the first time, our study compares occupancy probability with a species population metric, Nk, to assess the impact of future development. Maximum clique analysis is a tool that can be used to estimate Nk and inform landscape management and communication with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]