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Climate change has been and will be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature. It is clear that these changes include global-wide increases in mean surface temperature and changes in temperature variance that are more regionally-dependent.sup.1-3. It is less clear whether they also include changes in the persistence of surface temperature. This is important as the effects of weather events on ecosystems and society depend critically on the length of the event. Here we provide an extensive survey of the response of surface temperature persistence to climate change over the twenty-first century from the output of 150 simulations run on four different Earth system models, and from simulations run on simplified models with varying representations of radiative processes and large-scale dynamics. Together, the results indicate that climate change simulations are marked by widespread changes in surface temperature persistence that are generally most robust over ocean areas and arise due to a seemingly broad range of physical processes. The findings point to both the robustness of widespread changes in persistence under climate change, and the critical need to better understand, simulate and constrain such changes. A survey of climate change simulations from different models indicates widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under global warming that may be attributable to a broad range of physical processes., Author(s): Jingyuan Li [sup.1] , David W. J. Thompson [sup.1] [sup.2] Author Affiliations: (1) Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA (2) School of Environmental Sciences, University [...]

We compare insights provided by local and large‐scale perspectives of extreme heat events in ERA5 near‐surface temperature data. Heat waves where temperatures exceed four standard deviations about the climatological‐mean are expected less than once a century locally but occur roughly once every 10 days somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The high frequency of occurrence indicated by the hemispheric perspective is not well represented by normal statistics because it strongly depends on the shapes of the local temperature distributions. The large effective sample size afforded by the hemispheric perspective provides robust evidence of trends in the frequency of occurrence of extreme heat events integrated over the Northern Hemisphere. It also confirms that trends in heat events summed over the hemisphere can be explained by changes in mean temperature alone. Plain Language Summary: Extreme events can be studied from local and large‐scale perspectives. The two perspectives provide different insights into the likelihood of extreme events. For example, several notable recent heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere exceeded four standard deviations about the long‐term climatology. Locally, such events are expected less than once every century. But based on high spatial resolution temperature data, such events occur somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere roughly once every 10 days. The increased likelihood of extreme heat events when summed over the hemisphere is not well represented by normal statistics because it is strongly dependent on the shapes of the temperature distributions. The large effective sample size afforded by the hemispheric perspective is important, as it provides a robust estimate of the influence of climate change on the frequency of occurrence of heat events. The hemispheric perspective confirms previous findings that long‐term trends in extreme heat events summed over the Northern Hemisphere can be explained by recent increases in mean temperature. Key Points: Heat events expected less than once every century locally occur roughly once every 10 days somewhere in Northern Hemispheric midlatitudesHemispheric incidence is underestimated by a factor 10 by normal statistics and strongly influenced by the shape of frequency distributionsThe large sample size of the hemispheric perspective clarifies the key role of mean temperature in driving observed trends in heat events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the leading mode of Pacific variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes vast and widespread climatic impacts, including in the stratosphere. Following discovery of a stratospheric pathway of ENSO to the Northern Hemisphere surface, here we aim to investigate if there is a substantial Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric pathway in relation to austral winter ENSO events. Large stratospheric anomalies connected to ENSO occur on average at high SH latitudes as early as August, peaking at around 10 hPa. An overall colder austral spring Antarctic stratosphere is generally associated with the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and vice versa. This behavior is robust among reanalysis and six separate model ensembles encompassing two different model frameworks. A stratospheric pathway is identified by separating ENSO events that exhibit a stratospheric anomaly from those that do not and comparing to stratospheric extremes that occur during neutral ENSO years. The tropospheric eddy-driven jet response to the stratospheric ENSO pathway is the most robust in the spring following a La Niña, but extends into summer, and is more zonally symmetric compared to the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection. The magnitude of the stratospheric pathway is weaker compared to the tropospheric pathway and therefore, when it is present, has a secondary role. For context, the magnitude is approximately half that of the eddy-driven jet modulation due to austral spring ozone depletion in the model simulations. This work establishes that the stratospheric circulation acts as an intermediary in coupling ENSO variability to variations in the austral spring and summer tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean is a reservoir for CFC-11, a major ozone-depleting chemical. Anthropogenic production of CFC-11 dramatically decreased in the 1990s under the Montreal Protocol, which stipulated a global phase out of production by 2010. However, studies raise questions about current overall emission levels and indicate unexpected increases of CFC-11 emissions of about 10 Gg · yr-1 after 2013 (based upon measured atmospheric concentrations and an assumed atmospheric lifetime). These findings heighten the need to understand processes that could affect the CFC-11 lifetime, including ocean fluxes. We evaluate how ocean uptake and release through 2300 affects CFC-11 lifetimes, emission estimates, and the long-term return of CFC-11 from the ocean reservoir. We show that ocean uptake yields a shorter total lifetime and larger inferred emission of atmospheric CFC-11 from 1930 to 2075 compared to estimates using only atmospheric processes. Ocean flux changes over time result in small but not completely negligible effects on the calculated unexpected emissions change (decreasing it by 0.4 ± 0.3 Gg · yr-1). Moreover, it is expected that the ocean will eventually become a source of CFC-11, increasing its total lifetime thereafter. Ocean outgassing should produce detectable increases in global atmospheric CFC-11 abundances by the mid-2100s, with emission of around 0.5 Gg · yr-1; this should not be confused with illicit production at that time. An illustrative model projection suggests that climate change is expected to make the ocean a weaker reservoir for CFC-11, advancing the detectable change in the global atmospheric mixing ratio by about 5 yr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]