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This review first pays tribute to the famous Croatian oceanographer, Mira Zore-Armanda, and her seminal work on the Adriatic water masses in 1963, and emphasises the importance of the densest Mediterranean water mass: North Adriatic Dense Water (NAddW). This water mass is generated through substantial wintertime surface cooling and evaporation over the wide northern Adriatic and is known to (1) influence the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (2) bring oxygen and carbon to the deep Adriatic layers and, (3) more generally, have a substantial impact on the physics and biogeochemistry of the whole Adriatic. Second, the NAddW physics, from preconditioning, through generation and spreading, to accumulation in Adriatic depressions, is reviewed. Then, the temporal evolution of the NAddW properties influenced and connected to (1) basin-wide interannual and decadal variability and (2) trends towards warmer and saltier source characteristic due to ongoing climate change, is discussed. The importance of long-term observations and atmosphere-ocean modelling in event, decadal and climate studies is then presented. Finally, a review of the identified gaps and perspectives for future research is concluding this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four chronologies of the bivalve species Glycymeris pilosa have been constructed along a 300 km gradient of the eastern coastal Adriatic Sea, all of which span the common period of 1982–2015. The chronologies are compared to local and remote environmental drivers suspected to influence the biology of the system, including air and seawater temperature, precipitation and freshwater discharge. The Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), a key oceanographic feature quantified by satellite-derived absolute dynamic topography, is also compared to the chronologies. The chronologies at the two southern sites are more strongly influenced by local river discharge, while the two northern chronologies are more strongly influenced by BiOS. These results highlight the broadscale importance of BiOS to the Adriatic system as well as the heterogeneity of nearshore environmental and drivers of growth. These G. pilosa chronologies provide unique multidecadal, continuous, biological time series to better understand the ecology and fine-scale variability of the Adriatic with potential for other shallow, semi-enclosed seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Seven multi-decadal ocean simulations have been assessed for the Adriatic Sea. • Analysed simulations differ in resolution, forcing and coupling strategies. • Thermohaline properties and dynamic processes of the Adriatic Sea are better reproduced by coupled models. • All analysed models underrepresent dense water formation on the shelf. • Ocean model resolution and river forcing play a second-order role. Abstract A performance study of seven regional ocean configurations based on NEMO has been carried out for the Adriatic Sea over a common period (1980–2012). Assessed models differ in resolution, model physics, atmospheric forcing (forced vs. coupled models) and river discharges imposed within the Adriatic Sea. Models have been evaluated on the long-term temperature and salinity measurements in all of the Adriatic sub-basins, in particular within dense water collectors (Jabuka Pit and South Adriatic Pit) and dense water formation sites (northern and southern Adriatic). Adriatic-wide salinity content is mostly linked to the proper introduction of the overall water budget, rather than to the local river forcing. Forced models mostly overestimate temperature and salinity values. On average, coupled models better reproduce the thermohaline properties and processes, in particular the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) reversals and its decadal variability. Wintertime heat losses are playing major role in defining the Adriatic Deep Water (ADW) transport rates in coupled models, while in forced models preconditioning in salinity is the most important factor. Further on, increase of resolution of the atmospheric forcing results in more realistic ocean behaviour, including dense water formation (DWF) in the complex coastal northern Adriatic. However, all models have large temperature biases and lower deep stratification at the dense water collector sites, indicating overall underrepresentation of the Adriatic DWF. Consequently, mixed-layer depth in the southern Adriatic is overestimated, reaching the bottom during some years. Ocean model resolution and river forcing seem to play a second-order role in defining the overall Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline properties, while inclusion of aerosol trend only slightly modified the BiOS reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topical issue includes 22 papers on different aspects of meteorology and climatology of the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The papers are grouped into three categories, based on scale analysis of processes, and whether the study is dominantly related to the atmospheric or oceanic phenomenon. The category “Storms, Extremes and Mesoscale Processes” encompasses seven papers, ranging from observation and modelling data analysis of extreme atmospheric (severe winds, hailstorms, waterspout, cyclones) and oceanic (meteotsunamis, surface waves) events, occurring locally, but being connected to wider patterns and processes. The six papers in category “Atmospheric Climate, Variability and Climate Change” contain analyses of long-term observations and climate projection outputs, but also assess atmosphere-ocean-land interactions and cycles, that are important in a climate perspective. The category “Ocean Climate and Variability” includes nine papers, which map ocean processes (sea level variability, circulation, sea surface temperatures, vertical thermal structure, water masses and dense water formation) on a climate timescale, both, in the Mediterranean and Black Sea sub-basins, or taking them as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A performance analysis of the NEMOMED8 ocean regional circulation model was undertaken for the Adriatic Sea during the period of 1961-2012, focusing on two mechanisms, dense water formation (DWF) and the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), which drive interannual and decadal variability in the basin. The model was verified based on sea surface temperature and sea surface height satellite measurements and long-term in situ observations from several key areas. The model qualitatively reproduces basin-scale processes: thermohaline-driven cyclonic circulation and freshwater surface outflow along the western Adriatic coast, dense water dynamics, and the inflow of Ionian and Levantine waters to the Adriatic. Positive temperature and salinity biases are reported; the latter are particularly large along the eastern part of the basin, presumably because of the inappropriate introduction of eastern Adriatic rivers into the model. The highest warm temperature biases in the vertical direction were found in dense-water-collecting depressions in the Adriatic, indicating either an inappropriate quantification of DWF processes or temperature overestimation of modelled dense water. The decadal variability in the thermohaline properties is reproduced better than interannual variability, which is considerably underestimated. The DWF rates are qualitatively well reproduced by the model, being larger when preconditioned by higher basin-wide salinities. Anticyclonic circulation in the northern Ionian Sea was modelled only during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. No other reversals of circulation that could be linked to BiOS-driven changes were modelled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major tsunami-like event, locally known as ‘marrobbio’, impacted the southwestern coast of Sicily on 25-26 June 2014. The event was part of a chain of hazardous episodes in the Mediterranean and Black seas during the last week of June 2014 resulting from an anomalous atmospheric system (“tumultuous atmosphere”) propagating eastward over the region. The synoptic patterns and vertical structure of the atmosphere over Sicily at the time of the event indicate that atmospheric wave ducting was responsible for the generation of tsunamigenic air pressure disturbances that produced especially high sea level responses (“meteotsunamis”) at certain sites along the Sicilian coast. The strongest sea level oscillations were observed at Mazara del Vallo, where a 1-m meteotsunami bore, propagating upstream in the Mazaro River, was generated. The combined effects of external resonance (Proudman resonance on the western Sicilian shelf) and internal resonant conditions (bathymetric and topographic characteristics of specific sites) were found to be the key factors that caused the meteotsunami (marrobbio phenomenon) on the coast of Sicily and the meteobore at Mazara del Vallo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the Adriatic atmosphere–ocean trends and variability simulated by the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model during the 1987–2017 period. As the AdriSC model has been successfully validated over the entire basin against an extensive dataset of in situ measurements and remote sensing products, the reliability of the presented results at the regional (basin-wide) and local (sub-domains) scales is high. We found that trends and variability in the atmosphere reveal strong land-sea contrasts with (1) stronger temperature trends associated with lower, mostly seasonal, variability over the Adriatic Sea than over the land and (2) positive trends of wind speed and negative trends of relative humidity associated with high, mostly seasonal, variability over the sea and vice versa over the land. While, in the ocean, the analysis highlights several processes: (1) extensive warming by the atmosphere at the surface during summer, affecting both temperature and salinity, (2) shallowing of the advection of the saline Levantine Intermediate Water inflow into the Adriatic, (3) decrease of the Adriatic deep water outflow and therefore the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (4) warming of near-bottom waters, in particular in the middle and northern Adriatic, and (5) shrinking and weakening of the Southern Adriatic Gyre, in particular at its center. We thus demonstrate that kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling is an indispensable tool for proper quantification of climate change in complex coastal basins, as it captures local characteristics not properly reproduced by present state-of-the-art regional climate models with an order of magnitude coarser resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to quantify a multiyear ocean temperature change at a shallow (5 m) coastal site in the northeastern Adriatic. Measurements were taken between May 2014 and May 2021 with an hourly resolution, allowing for an extraction of temperature variations over longer-term, seasonal, synoptic, quasi-diurnal and hourly timescales. As expected for shallow waters, the seasonal influence is prevalent, while diurnal changes are quasi-persistent throughout the year. Marine heat waves and cold spells are the strongest during spring and summer months. Non-seasonal changes mostly guide longer-term (>10 days) variability, yet rapid temperature changes reach 2 °C/h during stratified seasons. Such rapid changes may impact benthic communities and the physiology of marine species, including bivalves. This is especially important in the era of global warming, in which environmental conditions are already pushed towards their thresholds, and where high-frequency variability analyses can be useful in introducing a precautionary approach for local climate change adaptation. • Multi-year hourly coastal temperature data has been analyzed in the Adriatic. • Near-surface temperature variability across timescales has been documented. • Seasonal variability is prevalent, yet the temperature may change rapidly. • The temperature changes may strongly impact the benthic organisms, like bivalve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to document the effects of imposing different river runoff forcing and tidal forcing to the dense water formation (DWF) rates and dynamics in a semi-enclosed sea. An extreme DWF episode that occurred in the winter of 2012 in the shallow northern Adriatic Sea during a prolonged cold bora wind outbreak event has been reproduced using a one-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system comprised of the atmospheric Aladin/HR mesoscale model and ocean ROMS model. Three different river runoff forcing and tides/no tides scenarios were imposed on the model. The introduction of tides and river climatology instead of real rivers did not substantially change the modelled DWF transports and volumes, whereas the simulation using the old Raicich climatology resulted in a substantial freshening of the entire Adriatic that reduced or prevented the DWF at sites in the northern and northeastern Adriatic. The necessity of using an up-to-date river runoff climatology to properly reproduce the DWF in semi-enclosed seas is emphasised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed a number of sensitivity experiments by applying a mapping technique, self-organizing maps (SOM) method, to the surface current data measured by high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic and surface winds modelled by two state-of-the-art mesoscale meteorological models, the Aladin (Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational) and the Weather and Research Forecasting models. Surface current data used for the SOM training were collected during a period in which radar coverage was the highest: between February and November 2008. Different pre-processing techniques, such as removal of tides and low-pass filtering, were applied to the data in order to test the sensitivity of characteristic patterns and the connectivity between different SOM solutions. Topographic error did not exceed 15 %, indicating the applicability of the SOM method to the data. The largest difference has been obtained when comparing SOM patterns originating from unprocessed and low-pass filtered data. Introduction of modelled winds in joint SOM analyses stabilized the solutions, while sensitivity to wind forcing coming from the two different meteorological models was found to be small. Such a low sensitivity is considered to be favourable for creation of an operational ocean forecasting system based on neural networks, HF radar measurements and numerical weather prediction mesoscale models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines oceanographic properties along the northern portion of the Palagruža Sill, middle Adriatic Sea, from 1998 to 2011. Temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and orthophosphate concentrations were collected at four stations on a seasonal basis and monthly basis, spanning from coastal waters to the deepest part of the sill. Seasonal profiles and variances were computed, exhibiting no strong seasonal variability in either coastal or open Adriatic waters, except for temperature. The transect profiles were analysed using the Self-Organising Maps (SOM) method, which extracted two regimes with several transitional patterns characterized by an anomaly in one or more variables. These regimes match the Bimodal Adriatic-Ionian Oscillation (BiOS) regimes in the northern Ionian Sea, which are found to drive decadal oscillations in oceanographic parameters in the Adriatic. As the transect mainly encompasses the euphotic zone, no strong connection was found between BiOS regimes and DO, TIN and orthophosphate concentrations. This suggests that, in addition to basin-wide circulation, other physical and biogeochemical processes are more important for nutrient dynamics in the euphotic zone. The use of the SOM method in ocean coastal studies is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contains a basin-wide assessment of high-frequency sea level oscillations in the Mediterranean Sea for the period from 2010 to 2014. Sea level series with temporal resolutions of 1 min were taken from 29 tide gauges that had been operational for at least 4 years with high-quality time series. The contribution of high-frequency sea level variance (2 min–6 h) to the total and residual sea level variance was estimated to vary between 0.4% and 9.5% and between 0.6% and 12.1%, respectively, but to become dominant at some stations during extreme high-frequency events. A total of 36 high-frequency sea level events were extracted from the series, with some occurring locally in one of the four selected regions of Spain, Sardinia, Sicily and the Greece–Ionian Sea (6 events), some occurring over two or three regions (19 events), and some occurring in all of the selected regions within a period of 1–3 days (11 events). The basin-wide events normally propagate from the western to the eastern parts of the basin, with an average velocity of approximately 30 km/h. Synoptic patterns associated with high-frequency events were analysed, and a high resemblance to patterns associated with meteotsunamis was observed: (i) a cyclone with a centre W-NW from the affected area, (ii) a strong thermal front in the lower troposphere, and (iii) a forefront of an unstable strong mid-tropospheric jet placed over the affected area. The strong coherence between high-frequency sea level events and synoptic patterns introduces the possibility of a timely forecast of these events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper documents dynamics of the middle Adriatic region, and is based on computation of relative geostrophic currents from temperature and salinity data taken along the Palagruža Sill transect between 1957 and 2010. The strongest westward current is found in the central part of the sill, corresponding to the offshore deflected Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC). The Western Adriatic Current (WAC) is, as expected, found in the southern part of the measured transect. The WAC is most significant during the summer season and exhibits stronger variability than the EAC due to the frequent growth of eddies within it. Long-term trends in both the central and southern parts of the sill oppose mean currents, indicating the weakening of the EAC and WAC and therefore of the entire Adriatic thermohaline cell. These opposing trends have not been reproduced by a climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a unique time series of organic matter content (dissolved organic carbon, DOC, and its surface active substances fraction, SAS) collected in the northern Adriatic along the Po-Rovinj transect between 1998 and 2017. The data were collected on a monthly or bimonthly basis. Seasonal variance of organic matter content does not exceed 30% of its total variance, while the DOC and the SAS trends are significantly negative and positive, respectively, over the whole transect. The organic matter content, however, exhibits pronounced interannual and decadal changes, with periods of high and low carbon content and evident changes in composition of the SAS content. The changes indicate altering episodes between eutrophication and oligotrophication, embedded in the overall oligotrophication trend in the considered period. Both series were correlated with the potential local and regional yearly-averaged drivers in both atmosphere and sea. DOC is most strongly (significant at 99%) correlated with the Po River discharges, at the phase lag of −1 to −2 years. For the SAS, the largest correlations (significant at 99%) are obtained with the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System index (BiOS index), at the phase lag of −3 to −4 years. Correlations between the organic matter content and the hemispheric or the regional climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic/West Russia, East Atlantic, Scandinavian, and Mediterranean Oscillation) are much lower and only sparsely significant at 95% at some phase lags. The same was found for the other local drivers (precipitation and net heat flux). Our analysis highlights the importance of remote processes, like the BiOS, that weren't previously considered to shape the biogeochemical properties of such shallow coastal region impacted by freshwater load. To properly assess such impacts, long-term ecological monitoring and homogenized data series are required. Unlabelled Image • Long-term study of temporal and spatial distribution of OM in the Adriatic Sea • Alternating episodes of eutrophication and oligotrophication in the northern Adriatic • Seawater OM as a complex mixture of organic material with surface active properties • Decreasing DOC and increasing SAS trend in the northern Adriatic over last 20 years • NAd OM quality and quantity controlled by variable Po water discharge and BiOS [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In situ thermohaline variables measured monthly or bimonthly in the shallow northern Adriatic at prescribed stations between 1979 and 2017 were correlated with the local (river runoff, precipitation, net heat flux) and remote atmospheric (various hemispheric and regional indices) and oceanic (the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System, BiOS) drivers acting on monthly to annual timescales. The highest correlation between the temperature and the local drivers was obtained in winter along the western part of the study area, while the rivers and precipitation mostly shaped the summer and December salinity values. The net heat fluxes and river discharges preceding the dense water formation (DWF) by 1–2 months and up to 3 months were found to be important for the February temperature and salinity variability, respectively. No significant correlations were found between the February thermohaline variables and the monthly BiOS index for the phase lags up to −11 months, while the correlation was the largest between the yearly averaged BiOS index and the yearly averaged salinity at phase lags of −2 to −4 years. The bottom yearly averaged salinity has also been highly correlated with the Mediterranean Oscillation index at phase lags of −1 and −3 years, while the yearly averaged surface temperature was influenced by the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia patterns. Acting independently on different timescales, both the local and remote processes were found to drive the thermohaline variability in the northern Adriatic, thus providing an option for a forecast of the DWF and the thermohaline circulation in the Adriatic-Ionian basin. • Thermohaline observations have been correlated with atmospheric and oceanic drivers. • Local drivers shape the thermohaline variability at monthly timescales. • Remote drivers were correlated with temperature and salinity at yearly timescale. • The BiOS is a key driver for the northern Adriatic decadal thermohaline variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Anomalous physical and microbial properties were detected in the middle Adriatic. • Local and remote drivers contributed to record-breaking salinities. • Picoplankton biomass and production sharply declined in high salinity conditions. • The documented conditions could be more frequent in the future climate. Oceanographic measurements carried out in the middle Adriatic during summer 2017 revealed anomalous conditions in both physical and microbial properties. High salinities were observed throughout the entire water column, with an 'inverse' salinity profile in August and a maximum in the surface layer, recorded for the first time in the middle Adriatic. Surface salinity of 39.02 recorded in August was 2.5 standard deviations above the long-term average (1961–2016). The observed salinity distributions are the result of both local and remote drivers, whereby the North Ionian cyclonic gyre controlled by the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System has been responsible for the overall above-average salinities since 2011. Yet, local factors present in 2017, such as strong evaporation caused by extremely high air temperatures, lack of precipitation and low river discharges, combined with a decrease in horizontal transport estimated from the Regional Ocean Modeling System simulations, contributed substantially to the observed surface salinity anomaly. The decrease in horizontal advection was conjoined with high values of repelling barriers in the fields of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent. Documented physical conditions were synchronized with considerably lower bacterial production and abundance of the most studied picoplankton groups in comparison to values during the last decade. The exception was the euryhaline organism Synechococcus , whose abundance was 88% higher than the average in the study area. Nutrient content and chlorophyll-a concentrations followed regular seasonal cycles during 2017, with typical low values pointing to salinity as a possible driver of the observed changes in the microbial food web. Following ongoing climate change and future projections, these documented anomalous physical and microbiological conditions may become more frequent in the Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometre-scale atmosphere–ocean climate model covering the Adriatic Sea and northern Ionian Sea is presented. The AdriSC ocean results of a 31-year-long (i.e. 1987–2017) climate simulation, derived with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3 km and 1 km models, are evaluated with respect to a comprehensive collection of remote sensing and in situ observational data. In general, it is found that the AdriSC model is capable of reproducing the observed sea surface properties, daily temperatures and salinities, and the hourly ocean currents with good accuracy. In particular, the AdriSC ROMS 3 km model demonstrates skill in reproducing the main variabilities of the sea surface height and the sea surface temperature, despite a persistent negative bias within the Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, the AdriSC ROMS 1 km model is found to be more capable of reproducing the observed thermohaline and dynamical properties than the AdriSC ROMS 3 km model. For the temperature and salinity, better results are obtained in the deeper parts than in the shallow shelf and coastal parts, particularly for the surface layer of the Adriatic Sea. The AdriSC ROMS 1 km model is also found to perform well in reproducing the seasonal thermohaline properties of the water masses over the entire Adriatic–Ionian domain. The evaluation of the modelled ocean currents revealed better results at locations along the eastern coast and especially the northeastern shelf than in the middle eastern coastal area and the deepest part of the Adriatic Sea. Finally, the AdriSC climate component is found to be a more suitable modelling framework to study the dense water formation and long-term thermohaline circulation of the Adriatic–Ionian basin than the available Mediterranean regional climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean climate model covering the Adriatic and northern Ionian Seas is presented. The AdriSC ocean results of a 31-year long (i.e. 1987-2017) climate simulation, derived with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 3-km and 1-km models, are evaluated with respect to a comprehensive collection of remote-sensing and in situ observational data. In general, it is found that the AdriSC model is capable to reproduce the observed sea-surface properties, daily temperatures and salinities and the hourly ocean currents with good accuracy. In particular, the AdriSC ROMS 3-km model demonstrates skill in reproducing the main variabilities of the sea-surface height as well as the sea-surface temperature, despite a persistent negative bias within the Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, the AdriSC ROMS 1-km model is found to be more capable to reproduce the observed thermohaline and dynamical properties than the AdriSC ROMS 3-km model. For the temperature and salinity, better results are obtained in the deeper parts than in the shallow shelf and coastal parts, particularly for the surface layer of the Adriatic Sea. The AdriSC ROMS 1-km model is also found to perform well in reproducing the seasonal thermohaline properties of the water masses over the entire Adriatic-Ionian domain. The evaluation of the modelled ocean currents revealed better results at locations along the eastern coast and especially the north-eastern shelf than in the middle-eastern coastal area and the deepest part of the Adriatic Sea. Finally, the AdriSC climate component is found to be a more suitable modelling framework to study the dense water formation and long-term thermohaline circulation of the Adriatic-Ionian basin than the available Mediterranean regional climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate synoptic meteotsunami index has been constructed using synoptic variables for the Balearic Islands. The index allows for the very first assessment of atmospherically driven intense sea level oscillations at the tsunami timescale (<2 hr) in future climates. The index has been computed using outputs from evaluation, historical, and three scenario MED‐11_CNRM Med‐CORDEX regional atmospheric climate runs. The reliability of the index has been verified against reanalysis simulations and on documented meteotsunami events. No significant changes in the index are projected under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, while the yearly number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% under the RCP8.5 scenario by the year 2100. This increase will dominantly occur during the summer season (May–August), being contemporaneous with maximum index values. The presented results are relevant for assessment of sea level extremes worldwide, since high‐frequency sea level oscillations may contribute up to 40% of the total range. Plain Language Summary: The study aims to develop the proxy methodology to be used for assessment of meteotsunamis—atmospherically driven waves in a tsunami frequency band—in the future climate, as the present climate models are far from reproduction of processes on a minute and a kilometer scale. The proxy estimates are based on connecting synoptic parameters and patterns to the high‐frequency sea level observations. The methodology is successfully verified for Ciutadella harbor, a known hot spot for meteotsunamis, on state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis data. It seems that meteotsunamis are likely not to increase in all but business‐as‐usual (RCP8.5) climate scenarios, where the increase is matching the season when meteotsunami reach their maximum (spring–summer). The methodology might be useful for assessing meteotsunami hazard in future climates, while being applied at places where meteotsunamis are driven dominantly by a single atmospheric process. Global and regional analyses indicate that these might encompass the majority of midlatitudal regions. Key Points: A proxy‐based index has been developed for assessing meteotsunamigenic potential in future climateNo significant changes in the index have been found for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenariosThe number of days with meteotsunamis is expected to increase by 34% by the end of the century for the RCP8.5 scenario [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northernmost part of the Mediterranean Sea, the northern Adriatic shelf, is a complex area where the intensity of dense water formation and the consequent Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation are shaped by a combination of extreme wintertime bora winds and substantial freshwater loads. To better understand the impact of global warming on extreme bora dynamics and the associated sea surface cooling, this study applies the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale modelling suite to the far future climate (2060–2100) period. Under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenarios, the AdriSC simulations are carried out via the combination of a statistical approach—consisting of an ensemble of 3-day simulations for 22 extreme bora events, and a pseudo-global warning (PGW) methodology—imposing a climatological change to the forcing used to produce the evaluation (present climate) runs. Despite a noteworthy decrease in intensity of the bora winds (by up to 3 m/s), the latent heat losses are simulated to increase (by up to 150 W/m2) due to the reduction in relative humidity in the northern Adriatic (by up to 3%). Consequently, the sea surface cooling associated with severe bora events and preconditioning the dense shelf water formation in the northern Adriatic is projected to not significantly change compared to present climate. Although these results need to be further confirmed, this study thus provides a new view on the future of processes driven by sea surface cooling, such as the dense shelf water formation or the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, that were projected to decrease in the future climate by regional climate models an order of magnitude coarser than the AdriSC simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (<2 h) may substantially contribute to global sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to estimate wintertime thermohaline properties and dense water formation (DWF) dynamics, rates, and transports in the northern and middle Adriatic between 2008 and 2015. The focus has also been directed to the year-to-year differences between two known DWF sites located on the northern Adriatic shelf and in the eastern coastal region. The estimates are based on a high-resolution interannual simulation by Regional Ocean Modelling System, one-way forced by the meteorological Aladin/HR operational mesoscale model, with new river climatology imposed particularly at the eastern Adriatic coast. Substantial interannual variability in wintertime bottom densities has been found, varying for more than 1.0 kg m−3 among years. Such variations are largely associated with the January-February heat losses, while atmospheric preconditioning in November-December seems to have a little effect on the DWF rates. By contrast, salinity is preconditioning the DWF in the eastern coastal site. That has been found relevant for DWF rates during extraordinary winters, as in the case of 2012. Contribution of a coastal site to the overall DWF rates in other years has not been substantial. Finally, a saw-tooth-like pattern in thermohaline time series has been found in observations and reproduced by the numerical model at the bottom of the middle Adriatic depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In engineering studies, harbor resonance, including quality and amplification factors, is typically computed for swell and waves with periods shorter than 10 min. However, in various locations around the world, such as Vela Luka Bay in Croatia, meteotsunami waves of periods greater than 10 min can excite the bay or harbor natural modes and produce substantial structural damages. In this theoretical study, the impact of some geomorphological changes of Vela Luka Bay—i.e. deepening of the bay, dredging the harbor, adding a pier or a marina—to the amplification of the meteotsunami waves are presented for a set of 6401 idealized pressure wave field forcing used to derive robust statistics. The most substantial increase in maximum elevation is found when the Vela Luka harbor is dredged to a 5 m depth, which is in contradiction with the calculation of the quality factor showing a decrease of the harbor natural resonance. It has been shown that the forcing energy content at different frequency bands should also be taken into account when estimating the quality and amplification factors, as their typical definitions derived from the peak frequency of the sea level spectrum fail to represent the harbor response during meteotsunami events. New definitions of these factors are proposed in this study and are shown to be in good agreement with the results of the statistical analysis of the Vela Luka Bay maximum elevation results. In addition, the presented methodology can easily be applicable to any other location in the world where meteotsunamis occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to introduce quality measures that can evaluate how well the Self-organizing Maps method performs in transitional stages. The errors have been computed with respect to the spatial and temporal properties of the data and in relation to the data gap significance. Temperature and salinity data collected in the central Adriatic Sea at six stations during 196 field cruises carried out between 1963 and 2011 have been used for the mapping of ocean patterns and computation of the respective errors. The errors resemble both the stability of ocean regimes and variability of patterns that are documented in the investigated region. As the data collection methodology and approach have changed over time, the errors may be a good indication for the presence of bad data in a series, which may then be controlled by other quality-check techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of tsunami-like waves of non-seismic origin struck several southern European countries during the period of 23 to 27 June 2014. The event caused considerable damage from Spain to Ukraine. Here, we show that these waves were long-period ocean oscillations known as meteorological tsunamis which are generated by intense small-scale air pressure disturbances. An unique atmospheric synoptic pattern was tracked propagating eastward over the Mediterranean and the Black seas in synchrony with onset times of observed tsunami waves. This pattern favoured generation and propagation of atmospheric gravity waves that induced pronounced tsunami-like waves through the Proudman resonance mechanism. This is the first documented case of a chain of destructive meteorological tsunamis occurring over a distance of thousands of kilometres. Our findings further demonstrate that these events represent potentially dangerous regional phenomena and should be included in tsunami warning systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to document salinity and temperature regimes in the middle and south Adriatic Sea by applying the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method to the available long-term temperature and salinity series. The data were collected on a seasonal basis between 1963 and 2011 in two dense water collecting depressions, Jabuka Pit and Southern Adriatic Pit, and over the Palagruža Sill. Seasonality was removed prior to the analyses. Salinity regimes have been found to oscillate rapidly between low-salinity and high-salinity SOM solutions, ascribed to the advection of Western and Eastern Mediterranean waters, respectively. Transient salinity regimes normally lasted less than a season, while temperature transient regimes lasted longer. Salinity regimes prolonged their duration after the major basin-wide event, the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, in the early 1990s. A qualitative relationship between high-salinity regimes and dense water formation and dynamics has been documented. The SOM-based analyses have a large capacity for classifying the oscillating ocean regimes in a basin, which, in the case of the Adriatic Sea, beside climate forcing, is an important driver of biogeochemical changes that impacts trophic relations, appearance and abundance of alien organisms, and fisheries, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide tsunamis driven by atmospheric waves—or planetary meteotsunami waves—are extremely rare events. They mostly occur during supervolcano explosions or asteroid impacts capable to generate atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves including the Lamb waves that can circle the globe multiple times. Recently, such ocean waves have been globally recorded after the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption on 15 January 2022, but did not pose any serious danger to the coastal communities. However, this study highlights that the mostly ignored destructive potential of planetary meteotsunami waves can be compared to the well-studied tsunami hazards. In practice, several process-oriented numerical experiments are designed to force a global ocean model with the realistic atmospheric response to the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai event rescaled in speed and amplitude. These simulations demonstrate that the meteotsunami surges can be higher than 1 m (and up to 10 m) along more than 7% of the world coastlines. Planetary meteotsunami waves thus have the potential to cause serious coastal damages and even human casualties during volcanic explosions or asteroid impacts either releasing intense acoustic energy or producing internal atmospheric gravity waves triggering the deep-ocean Proudman resonance at a speed of ∼212 m s−1. Based on records of catastrophic events in Earth's history, both scenarios are found to be realistic, and consequently, the global meteotsunami hazards should now be properly assessed to prepare for the next big volcanic eruption or asteroid impact even occurring inland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing evidence that many large coastal boulder deposits found on the exposed rocky ocean shores were deposited by extreme storm waves rather than by catastrophic tsunamis, as previously thought. In addition, before the first discovery in the northern Adriatic a few years ago, such deposits were not expected in relatively shallow semi-enclosed inland basins. Here we report on a large coastal coarse-clast deposit on the central Adriatic island of Mana, which also contains numerous large storm boulders that weigh up to several tons. Large solitary boulders are also located outside of the deposit, closer to the partly submerged sea cliff and the wave impact. The erosion of the cliff top and displacement of the carbonate bedrock fragments began when the extreme waves inundated the lowermost part of the cliff edge, probably during the late Holocene sea-level rise. The UAS photogrammetry-based fragmentation analysis of the storm deposit and the calculated fractal dimension value indicate that the material was fragmented by multiple high-energy events. A comparison of the available photographs indicates that displacements of the most exposed solitary boulders probably occurred during Vaia, the last extreme storm that hit the Adriatic on the 29th of October 2018. However, the modeled maximum wave height south of Mana during the peak of the storm would be insufficient to move these boulders. Yet local geomorphology probably further influenced the increase in wave height that, in combination with specific geological features, caused displacements of the boulders. There is a shorter fetch affecting Mana Island with respect to the northern Adriatic boulder field in southern Istria. Thus, such an active local erosion of the generally stable eastern Adriatic karstic coast depends on the extreme storms that have a weaker impact in the central than in the northern Adriatic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study the impact of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) on the interannual to decadal variability of the Adriatic Sea thermohaline circulation is quantified during the 1987–2017 period with the numerical results of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) historical kilometer-scale climate simulation. The time series associated with the first five Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) computed from the salinity, temperature and current speed monthly detrended anomalies at 1-km resolution are correlated to the BiOS signal. First, it is found that the AdriSC climate model is capable to reproduce the BiOS-driven phases derived from in-situ observations along a long-term monitoring transect in the middle Adriatic. Then, for the entire Adriatic basin, high correlations to the 2-year delayed BiOS signal are obtained for the salinity and current speed first two EOF time series at 100 m depth and the sea-bottom. Finally, the physical interpretation of the EOF spatial patterns reveals that Adriatic bottom temperatures are more influenced by the dense water circulation than the BiOS. These findings confirmed and generalized the known dynamics derived previously from observations, and the AdriSC climate model can thus be used to better understand the past and future BiOS-driven physical processes in the Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level observations provide information on a variety of processes occurring over different temporal and spatial scales that may contribute to coastal flooding and hazards. However, global research on sea-level extremes is restricted to hourly datasets, which prevent the quantification and analyses of processes occurring at timescales between a few minutes and a few hours. These shorter-period processes, like seiches, meteotsunamis, infragravity and coastal waves, may even dominate in low tidal basins. Therefore, a new global 1 min sea-level dataset – MISELA (Minute Sea-Level Analysis) – has been developed, encompassing quality-checked records of nonseismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (T<2 h) obtained from 331 tide-gauge sites (10.14284/456, Zemunik et al., 2021b). This paper describes data quality control procedures applied to the MISELA dataset, world and regional coverage of tide-gauge sites, and lengths of time series. The dataset is appropriate for global, regional or local research of atmospherically induced high-frequency sea-level oscillations, which should be included in the overall sea-level extremes assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this evaluation study, the coupled atmosphere–ocean Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model, which was implemented to carry out 31-year evaluation and climate projection simulations in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas, is briefly presented. The kilometre-scale AdriSC atmospheric results, derived with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3 km model for the 1987–2017 period, are then thoroughly compared to a comprehensive publicly and freely available observational dataset. The evaluation shows that overall, except for the summer surface temperatures, which are systematically underestimated, the AdriSC WRF 3 km model has a far better capacity to reproduce surface climate variables (and particularly the rain) than the WRF regional climate models at 0.11 ∘ resolution. In addition, several spurious data have been found in both gridded products and in situ measurements, which thus should be used with care in the Adriatic region for climate studies at local and regional scales. Long-term simulations with the AdriSC climate model, which couples the WRF 3 km model with a 1 km ocean model, might thus be a new avenue to substantially improve the reproduction, at the climate scale, of the Adriatic Sea dynamics driving the Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. As such it may also provide new standards for climate studies of orographically developed coastal regions in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea-level observations provide information on a variety of processes occurring over different temporal and spatial scales that may contribute to coastal flooding and hazards. However, global research of sea-level extremes is restricted to hourly datasets, which prevent quantification and analyses of processes occurring at timescales between a few minutes and a few hours. These shorter period processes, like seiches, meteotsunamis, infragravity and coastal waves, may even dominate in low-tidal basins. Therefore, a new global 1-minute sea-level dataset - MISELA (Minute Sea-Level Analysis) - has been developed, encompassing quality-checked records of nonseismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (T<2h) obtained from 331 tide-gauge sites (https://doi.org/10.14284/456, Zemunik et al., 2021b). This paper describes data quality-control procedures applied to the MISELA dataset, world and regional coverage of tide-gauge sites and lengths of time-series. The dataset is appropriate for global, regional or local research of atmospherically-induced high-frequency sea-level oscillations, which should be included in the overall sea-level extremes assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this evaluation study, the coupled atmosphere-ocean Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model, which was implemented to carry out 31-year long evaluation and climate projection simulations in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas, is briefly presented. The kilometre-scale AdriSC atmospheric results, derived with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3-km model for the 1987-2017 period, are then thoroughly compared to a comprehensive publicly and freely available observational dataset. The evaluation shows that overall, except for the summer surface temperatures which are systematically underestimated, the AdriSC WRF 3-km model has a far better capacity to reproduce the surface climate variables (and particularly the rain) than the WRF regional climate models at 0.11° of resolution. In addition, several spurious data have been found in both gridded products and in situ measurements which thus should be used with care in the Adriatic region for climate studies at local and regional scales. Long-term simulations with the AdriSC climate model, which couples the WRF 3-km model with a 1-km ocean model, might thus be a new avenue to substantially improve the reproduction, at the climate scale, of the Adriatic Sea dynamics driving the Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. As such it may also provide new standards for climate studies of orographically-developed coastal regions in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This numerical work aims to better understand the behavior of extreme Adriatic Sea wave storms under projected climate change. In this spirit, 36 characteristic events—22 bora and 14 sirocco storms occurring between 1979 and 2019, were selected and ran in evaluation mode in order to estimate the skill of the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) modelling suite used in this study and to provide baseline conditions for the climate change impact. The pseudo-global warming (PGW) methodology—which imposes an additional climatological change to the forcing used in the evaluation simulations, was implemented, for the very first time, for a coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere model and used to assess the behavior of the selected storms under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas projections. The findings of this experiment are that, on the one hand, the AdriSC model is found capable of reproducing both the Adriatic waves associated with the 36 storms and the northern Adriatic surges occurring during the sirocco events and, on the other hand, the significant wave heights and peak periods are likely to decrease during all future extreme events but most particularly during bora storms. The northern Adriatic storm surges are in consequence also likely to decrease during sirocco events. As it was previously demonstrated that the Adriatic extreme wind-wave events are likely to be less intense in a future warmer climate, this study also proved the validity of applying the PGW methodology to coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere models at the coastal and nearshore scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study quantifies the hazard associated with extreme sea levels due to eastern Adriatic meteotsunamis—long waves generated by traveling atmospheric disturbances—and assesses the sensitivity of the ocean response to the disturbances responsible for those events. In this spirit, a surrogate model of meteotsunami maximum elevation based on generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) methods, is implemented. The approach relies on the definition of a synthetic pressure disturbance—depending on six different stochastic parameters known to be important for meteotsunami generation, which is used as forcing to produce series of meteotsunami simulations defined with sparse grid methods (up to 10 689 used in this study). The surrogate model and the sensitivity study are then obtained with a pseudo-spectral approximation (PSA) method based on the chosen meteotsunami simulations. This study mainly presents the developed methodology and discusses the feasibility of implementing such gPCE-based surrogate models to assess the hazard and to study the sensitivity of meteorologically driven extreme sea levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper documents the analysis of a coastal boulder deposit that was recently identified along the northern Adriatic coast (Premantura Promontory, Istria, Croatia). Accumulations of large boulders have not previously been reported in the northern Adriatic, which can be viewed as a semi-enclosed basin. A multidisciplinary approach was used to investigate the site including geological and geomorphological surveys, together with the use of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), digital photogrammetric analysis, hydrodynamic modelling and 14C AMS datings. Measurements of boulder position, elevation, size, shape and density were fed into hydrodynamic equations that are used to estimate the minimum storm and tsunami wave height required to enable the accumulation of boulders. Biogenic marine carbonate encrustations observed on 14 boulders suggest the infra- and sublittoral zones as source areas, while for most of the boulders a subaerial origin is hypothesised. The boulder deposit occurs on a flat promontory where the topography, together with the stratified limestone bedding planes and dense joint pattern constitute the predisposing factors for boulder size and detachment. Comparisons between satellite images taken between 2008 and 2017, pictures collected from Internet and a 2012 snorkel survey of the Istrian coast made it possible to highlight the emplacement of a boulder with an estimated weight of 7.65 t during late 2013 or early 2014. The study examines the mechanisms that may be responsible for the detachment and transport of these large limestone rock fragments from the emergent part of the coast and from the sea bed towards inland areas. The results suggest the occurrence of very recent extreme weather conditions as well as multiple historical storm events and exclude a tsunami origin of the boulders. Highlights • A multidisciplinary study of a coastal boulders deposit in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented • Geomorphological surveys, hydrodynamic modelling, Radiocarbon datings and climatic analysis were performed • The emplacement of a 7tons boulder during a strong sirocco storm occurred in 2014 was reconstructed • Multiple historical and recent storm events are hypothesised as origin of the studied boulders [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper presents the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) Meteotsunami Forecast system, which has been developed to operationally forecast meteotsunamis – atmospherically-generated destructive ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band, in the Adriatic Sea. The challenges posed by modelling meteotsunamis are first reviewed, then the AdriSC Meteotsunami Forecast system set-up is presented in detail and finally the atmosphere and ocean model results are evaluated against 48 air pressure sensors and 19 tide gauges for six different meteotsunami events. The statistical analysis of the high-frequency model results reveals that the AdriSC atmospheric and ocean models can reproduce meteotsunami events, even though their performances highly vary depending on the event and observation location. A qualitative analysis of the maps of extreme sea level and mean sea level pressure high-frequency model results shows that even a slight shift in location (of the order of 1 to 10 km) of the atmospheric disturbances, responsible for the meteotsunami generation, results in the incapability of the ocean models to reproduce the observed floods occurring during the meteotsunami events. This study presents the first available thorough evaluation of a deterministic meteotsunami forecast system. As such, it establishes that a carefully envisioned modelling system, even if imperfect, can be implemented to reproduce and forecast meteotsunami events. Highlights • A modelling suite for operational forecast of meteotsunamis was developed. • Prerequisites for meteotsunami modelling are at the edge of the model performances. • Meteotsunami events have been qualitatively reproduced in the Adriatic Sea. • The suite can be used for hazard assessment within a meteotsunami warning system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacteria are the most important microorganisms in the world oceans, accounting for up to 75% of the total biomass. They are responsible for fundamental biogeochemical processes and therefore often used as ecological indicators. In this study, bacteria were quantified by flow cytometry and their diversity assessed by High Throughput Sequencing (HTS) in the southern Adriatic Sea. The most abundant bacterial groups were also quantified by qPCR. The samples were collected from the surface to the seabed over a total of 16 different depths at four stations during the late winter BIOTA (BIO-Tracing Adriatic water masses) cruise conducted in March 2016. The investigated area showed unusual water mass properties and was characterized by a shallow mixed layer, which differed from the usual winter convection conditions, typical of middle-altitude ecosystems and important for the seasonal picoplankton dynamics of this area. Heterotrophic bacteria were separated into HNA (relative High Nucleic Acid content) and LNA (Low Nucleic Acid content) subpopulations with abundances up to 1.8 × 10 5 and 8.8 × 10 5  cells mL −1 , respectively. HNA dominated at offshore stations reaching their maximum at depths below the euphotic zone. The bacterial community was dominated by Alphaproteobacteria , accounting for >40% of the total sequence reads and were mainly represented by the SAR11 clade (90.84%), followed by Marinimicrobia (18% of the total sequence reads), mainly represented by clade SAR406 (8.44%). Distinctive bacterial groups were found in the euphotic layer ( Bacteroidetes and Actinobacteria ) and aphotic layer samples ( Deltaproteobacteria , Marinimicrobia , Chloroflexi , Acidobacteria and Planctomycetes ). Results of the qPCR analyses further confirmed HTS results with highest abundances obtained for Alphaproteobacteria, followed by Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes . The adopted multiple approach, combining different molecular tools, critically supported by optics and flow cytometry, reveal changes in the bacterial assemblages during the unusual thermohaline conditions observed in 2016 in the southern Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper documents a concept of ocean forecasting system for ocean surface currents based on self-organizing map (SOM) trained by high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and high-frequency (HF) radar data. Wind and surface currents data from the northern Adriatic coastal area were used in a 6-month long training phase to obtain SOM patterns. Very high correlation between current and joined current and wind SOM patterns indicated the strong relationship between winds and currents and allowed for creation of a prediction system. Increasing SOM dimensions did not increase reliability of the forecasting system, being limited by the amount of the data used for training and achieving the lowest errors for 4 × 4 SOM matrix. As the HF radars and high-resolution NWP models are strongly expanding in coastal oceans, providing reliable and long-term datasets, the applicability of the proposed SOM-based forecasting system is expected to be high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reports an unusual response of the microzooplankton community to oceanographic conditions observed during the winter of 2015 in the open southern Adriatic. Record-breaking nauplii abundance of 13,734 ind. m-3 was sampled for the open southern Adriatic by 50-μm net sampling. This could be explained by (i) warmer-than-usual surface and intermediate ocean temperatures, (ii) higher precipitation that freshened and widened the surface layer, pushing saline Levantine Intermediate Water below a 400-m depth, and (iii) strong wind episodes that transported nutrients from the coastal zone to the open ocean and induced limited vertical mixing. Neritic tintinnids and viable photoautotrophs well below the photic zone support the last possibility. Average seasonal maximum of zooplankton abundance was shifted from spring and early summer to the late winter months. Our results document large and fast variations in production conditions rarely found to occur in oligotrophic waters such as the southern Adriatic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of meteotsunamis hit a few locations in the Mediterranean and Black Seas during 22-27 June 2014. Meteotsunamis were particularly numerous on 25 and 26 June in the Adriatic Sea, where at least six harbours and bays were stricken by powerful waves: strongest events occurred in Vela Luka (Korčula Island), a known meteotsunami hot-spot, where waves reached height of ~3 m, and in Rijeka dubrovačka Bay, where strong ~5 m/s currents accompanied ~2.5 m high waves. Intensification of high-frequency sea level activity was observed at both the eastern and western Adriatic tide gauge stations, with maximum recorded wave heights reaching ~68 cm (Ortona, Italy). A series of individual air pressure disturbances characterized by pronounced rates of air pressure change (up to 2.4 hPa/5 min), limited spatial extent (~50 km) and high temporal variability, propagated over the Adriatic on 2 days in question. Numerical hydrodynamic model SCHISM forced by measured and idealised air pressure disturbances was utilised to reproduce the observed Adriatic sea level response. Several important conclusions were reached: (1) meteotsunamis occurring at various parts of the coast were generated by different atmospheric air pressure disturbances; (2) topographic influence can be removed from sea level spectra by computing spectral signal-to-background ratios; the result, being related to the external forcing, resembles atmospheric pressure spectra; (3) sea response is strongly dependant on details of atmospheric forcing; and (4) over complex bathymetries, like the middle and south Adriatic ones, numerous effects, including Proudman resonance, edge waves, strong topographical enhancement and refractions on the islands placed on the pathway of atmospheric disturbances should be taken into account to fully understand meteotsunami generation and dynamics. An in-depth numerical study is planned to supplement the latter conclusion and to quantify contribution of each process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Contribution of seven sea level components to the Adriatic sea level extremes was studied for 1956–2019/2020 period. • Positive extremes dominantly occur due to superposition of tide , 6 h -10 d , and 10–100 d components. • Negative extremes dominantly occur due to superposition of tide and 10–100 d component. • Trends point to shortening of negative and prolonging and strengthening of positive extremes. The strongest episodes of extremely high sea levels in the Mediterranean are regularly observed in the Adriatic Sea, where they can cause substantial damage and loss of human lives. In this study, episodes of positive and negative sea level extremes were extracted from hourly series measured at six tide gauge stations located along the Adriatic coast (Venice, Trieste, Rovinj, Bakar, Split, Dubrovnik) between 1956 and 2019/2020. The time series were first checked for spurious data and then decomposed using tidal analysis, least-squares fitting and filtering procedures into (1) trend ; (2) seasonal ; (3) tide , (4) longer than 100 d (> 100 d), (5) 10–100 d , (6) 6 h -10 d , and (7) < 6 h components. These components correspond to sea level oscillations dominantly (but not exclusively) forced by (1) climate and isostatic change; (2) seasonal changes in thermohaline properties and circulation patterns, (3) tidal forcing, (4) quasi-stationary atmospheric and ocean circulation and climate variability patterns, (5) planetary atmospheric waves, (6) synoptic, and (7) mesoscale atmospheric processes. Significant differences exist between (1) the northern and middle/southern Adriatic extremes and (2) positive and negative extremes. The heights and return levels of positive (negative) extremes are 50–100% higher (lower) in the northern than in the middle/southern Adriatic. The northern Adriatic positive sea level extremes dominantly occur due to the superposition of the 6 h -10 d component and tide (contributing jointly to ∼70% of the total extreme height), whereas the middle/southern Adriatic positive extremes mostly occur due to the superposition of the 10–100 d component , 6 h -10 d component , and tide (each contributing ∼25% on average). The negative sea level extremes are explained as a combination of the 10–100 d component and tide: in the northern Adriatic tide provides the largest contribution (∼60%), while in the middle/southern Adriatic, the impacts of the two processes are similar (each contributing an average of ∼30%). Over the entire Adriatic, the < 6 h and seasonal components contribute the least to both positive and negative extremes. Sea level trends at all stations are positive; however, the observed sea level rise did not contribute significantly to the total height of extremes. Extreme episodes tend to occur simultaneously over larger parts of the coast and are often clustered within a few days. Both positive and negative extremes have a strong decadal variability, whereas trends of their number, duration and intensity point to shortening of negative extremes and prolonging and strengthening of positive extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliability of climate change projections in coastal and shallow seas may be largely influenced by complex air–ocean–land interactions, like in the northernmost shelf of the Mediterranean, the Northern Adriatic (NAd). However, classification of winter characteristics in the NAd may be simplified following the observed cross-basin bottom density distributions. Two main types of winter circulation occur: (i) type A, when the basin is strongly affected by the freshwater load and (ii) type B, in which the dense water formation is occurring. Neutral winter circulation type with characteristics between types A and B is called type C. This paper evaluates a usage of such a classification in climate models, defines the best proxy index for the winter NAd characteristics and then quantifies winter regimes in the future climate. The latter is assessed by regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model CNRM-RCSM4 for three different scenarios. Acknowledging an offset in density differences, the historical climate run perfectly fits the observations. The number of type C circulation, i.e. with low cross-basin density differences, is projected to increase in the future climate, in particular in RCP4.5 scenario. The number of type A circulation is showing a decrease in all climate scenarios, while type B circulation is decreasing in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As two main circulation types are conjoined with large differences in biogeochemical properties and fish stocks, these projected changes may have a substantial impact to the future productivity of this least oligotrophic basin in the Eastern Mediterranean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) method was applied to the surface currents data obtained between February and November 2008 by a network of high-frequency (HF) radars in the northern Adriatic. The sensitivity of the derived SOM solutions was tested in respect to the change of coordinate system of the data introduced to the SOM. In one experiment the original radial data measurements were used, and in the other experiment the Cartesian (total) current vectors derived from original radar data were analyzed. Although the computation of SOM solutions was not a demanding task, comparing both neural lattices yielded the nondeterministic polynomial time (NP) problem for which is difficult to propose a solution that will be globally optimal. Thus, we suggested utilizing the greedy algorithm with underlying assumption of 1-to-1 mapping between lattices. The results suggested that such solution could be local, but not global optimum and that the latter assumption could lower the obtained correlations between the patterns. However, without the assumption of 1-to-1 mapping between lattices, correlation between the derived SOM patterns was quite high, indicating that SOM mapping introduced to the radial current vectors and subsequent transformation into Cartesian coordinate system does not significantly affect obtained patterns in comparison to the SOM mapping done on the derived Cartesian current vectors. The documented similarity corroborates the use of total current vectors in various oceanographic studies, as being representative derivative of original radial measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glycymeris bimaculata is one of the largest (up to ~ 115 mm) bivalves in the Mediterranean Sea, yet there is a paucity of information about the biology, ecology and growth of the species. Maximum longevity, growth and periodicity of internal shell growth line formation were assessed in individuals collected from Pag Bay in the Adriatic Sea. We validated annual periodicity of line formation using stable isotope analysis of shell calcium carbonate to construct standardized growth indices (SGIs) in live collected specimens obtained in 2008 and 2012 and developed a statistically robust master chronology from the growth increment series to explore shell growth responses to environmental indices. The estimated age of 55 shells (shell length 49.1 to 109.5 mm) ranged from 6 to 57 years and shell growth is described by the von Bertalanffy growth equation: L t = 90.85 − (e − 0.10(t + 3.13) ). The dark growth lines visible in acetate peel replicates of polished and etched shell cross-sections were deposited annually at the beginning of spring. Growth increment data for the period between 1991 and 2007, derived from 9 individuals (age between 17 and 34 years), were used in the construction of a master chronology. The SGIs had pronounced inter-annual variability with the period between 1997 and 1999 characterized by slower growth, the period between 2000 and 2005 by moderate growth, while the widest growth increments were deposited in 2006 and 2007. Differences in growth between these periods were related to differences in surface seawater temperatures and salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides global climatology of high-frequency (T < 2 h) sea-level oscillations of atmospheric origin. Sea-level series with a temporal resolution of 1 min from 331 tide gauges in the world ocean and spanning between 1.5 and 12 years were analysed to determine the typical ranges, seasons and characteristics of moderate and extreme manifestations of nonseismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales (NSLOTTs). Variances in these oscillations reach 6.6 cm2 on average, but their region-averaged extreme (99.99th percentile) ranges may exceed half a metre or more at individual hotspot locations. The NSLOTTs are the highest in the mid-latitudes and decrease towards polar and tropical regions. Moderate oscillations show clear winter maxima at the majority of stations, while a less pronounced pattern is evident for the most extreme oscillations, which may occur throughout a year. A total of 3080 of the most prominent NSLOTT events were selected from 308 stations and compared to background oscillations, revealing the substantial capability of energy amplification during extreme events. Synchronicity in extreme NSLOTT events between neighbouring stations (up to 250 km) in mid-latitudes has been detected for 20–32% of all episodes, suggesting possible connectivity between the episodes. • Nonseismic sea-level oscillations at tsunami timescales have small variances. • However, their ranges may exceed half a metre in some regions and locations. • The oscillations are highest in the mid-latitudes. • Moderate oscillations have winter maxima, extreme oscillations occur through a year. • Extreme oscillations are synchronous in one fourth of occurrences in mid-latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate predictions of air temperature in coastal regions represent a great challenge due to the complex interactions among the atmosphere, sea, and land. With approximately 1,200 islands, the Adriatic is a region with a strong land‐sea contrast, land‐atmosphere feedback, and intense air‐sea interaction. Because the Mediterranean has been regarded as a "hot spot" for climate change, regional climate models can be used to provide insight into a more realistic representation of small‐scale weather and climate structure and variability. This advantage is due to the better representation of complex topography, developed coastlines, and land‐sea contrasts, which are important for investigating air temperature trends. The use of regional climate models together with high‐resolution reanalyses and observations in assessments of climate variability and climate change is highly valuable for understanding climate processes at regional scales. The present study focused on air temperature and its trends calculated from measurements and simulated by eight regional climate models from the EURO‐CORDEX database; these data were represented by UERRA reanalyses and E‐OBS gridded data. In the evaluation period (1989–2008), the models' RMSEs were fairly small, in the range 0.5–1.5°C, compared to the historical period (1961–2005), with RMSEs greater than 1.75°C. However, the models showed small absolute trend differences (up to 0.12°C·decade−1 for the historical period). The ensemble means in both periods showed an accuracy improvement of 15–20% compared to the individual models. The models exhibited more success in terms of representing the main statistics and variability of the air temperature structure than in reproducing the temperature trends over 45 years, especially in the northern Adriatic, where there is complex coastal topography and significant seasonal variability in the wind regime. The reanalyses well represented temperature structure but showed less success in explaining the temperature trends than the results from the measured data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]