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Predicting company growth is crucial for strategic adjustment, operational decision-making, risk assessment, and loan eligibility reviews. Traditional models for company growth often focus too much on theory, overlooking practical forecasting, or they rely solely on time series forecasting techniques, ignoring interpretability and the inherent mechanisms of company growth. In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based prediction framework that incorporates an econophysics model for company growth. Our model captures both the intrinsic growth mechanisms of companies led by scaling laws and the fluctuations influenced by random factors and individual decisions, demonstrating superior predictive performance compared with methods that use time series techniques alone. Its advantages are more pronounced in long-range prediction tasks. By explicitly modeling the baseline growth and volatility components, our model is more interpretable., Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures

After coarse-graining a complex system, the dynamics of its macro-state may exhibit more pronounced causal effects than those of its micro-state. This phenomenon, known as causal emergence, is quantified by the indicator of effective information. However, two challenges confront this theory: the absence of well-developed frameworks in continuous stochastic dynamical systems and the reliance on coarse-graining methodologies. In this study, we introduce an exact theoretic framework for causal emergence within linear stochastic iteration systems featuring continuous state spaces and Gaussian noise. Building upon this foundation, we derive an analytical expression for effective information across general dynamics and identify optimal linear coarse-graining strategies that maximize the degree of causal emergence when the dimension averaged uncertainty eliminated by coarse-graining has an upper bound. Our investigation reveals that the maximal causal emergence and the optimal coarse-graining methods are primarily determined by the principal eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the dynamic system's parameter matrix, with the latter not being unique. To validate our propositions, we apply our analytical models to three simplified physical systems, comparing the outcomes with numerical simulations, and consistently achieve congruent results.

Federated Learning (FL) with Secure Aggregation (SA) has gained significant attention as a privacy preserving framework for training machine learning models while preventing the server from learning information about users' data from their individual encrypted model updates. Recent research has extended privacy guarantees of FL with SA by bounding the information leakage through the aggregate model over multiple training rounds thanks to leveraging the "noise" from other users' updates. However, the privacy metric used in that work (mutual information) measures the on-average privacy leakage, without providing any privacy guarantees for worse-case scenarios. To address this, in this work we study the conditions under which FL with SA can provide worst-case differential privacy guarantees. Specifically, we formally identify the necessary condition that SA can provide DP without addition noise. We then prove that when the randomness inside the aggregated model update is Gaussian with non-singular covariance matrix, SA can provide differential privacy guarantees with the level of privacy $\epsilon$ bounded by the reciprocal of the minimum eigenvalue of the covariance matrix. However, we further demonstrate that in practice, these conditions are almost unlikely to hold and hence additional noise added in model updates is still required in order for SA in FL to achieve DP. Lastly, we discuss the potential solution of leveraging inherent randomness inside aggregated model update to reduce the amount of addition noise required for DP guarantee.

The theory of causal emergence based on effective information(EI) suggests that complex systems may exhibit a phenomenon called causal emergence(CE), where the macro-dynamics demonstrate a stronger causal effect than the micro-dynamics. However, a challenge in this theory is the dependence on the method used to coarse-grain the system. In this paper, we introduce a fresh concept of approximate dynamical reversibility and establish a novel framework for CE based on this and singular value decomposition. Our research not only reveals a strong correlation between the proximity of a Markov chain being dynamically reversible and EI in assessing causal effects across various scenarios but also demonstrates that EI is constrained by the logarithm of the approximate dynamical reversibility. Leveraging this concept, we present an innovative approach to quantifying CE that is agnostic to specific coarse-graining techniques and effectively captures the inherent characteristics of Markov dynamics. Through empirical evaluations on examples of boolean networks, cellular automata, and complex networks, we validate our refined CE definition., Comment: 40 pages,9 figures

Demonstrating that logical qubits outperform their physical counterparts is a milestone for achieving reliable quantum computation. Here, we propose to protect logical qubits with a novel dynamical decoupling scheme that implements iSWAP gates on nearest-neighbor physical qubits, and experimentally demonstrate the scheme on superconducting transmon qubits. In our scheme, each logical qubit only requires two physical qubits. A universal set of quantum gates on the logical qubits can be achieved such that each logical gate comprises only one or two physical gates. Our experiments reveal that the coherence time of a logical qubit is extended by up to 366% when compared to the better-performing physical qubit. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, we demonstrate for the first time that multiple logical qubits outperform their physical counterparts in superconducting qubits. We illustrate a set of universal gates through a logical Ramsey experiment and the creation of a logical Bell state. Given its scalable nature, our scheme holds promise as a component for future reliable quantum computation., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures

It has been more than 30 years since the enigmatic 21 {\mu}m emission feature was first discovered in protoplanetary nebulae (PPNs). Although dozens of different dust carrier candidates have been proposed, there is as yet no widely accepted one. We present the results of molecular observations toward 21{\mu}m objects using the 10m Submillimeter Telescope of Arizona Radio Observatory at the 1.3 mm band and the 13.7 m telescope of Purple Mountain Observatory at the 3mm band, aiming to investigate whether the gas-phase environments of these unusual sources have some peculiarities compared to normal PPNs. We detect 31 emission lines belonging to seven different molecular species, most of which are the first detection in 21 {\mu}m PPNs. The observations provide clues on the identification of the 21 {\mu}m feature. We report a correlation study between the fractional abundance of gas-phase molecules and the strengths of the 21 {\mu}m emission. Our study shows that given the small sample size, the 21 {\mu}m feature has weak or no correlations with the gas-phase molecules. Future radio observations of high spatial and spectral resolution toward a large sample are desirable to elucidate the 21 {\mu}m emission phenomena., Comment: 40 pages, 10 figures, 11 tables, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

Toxic content detection is crucial for online services to remove inappropriate content that violates community standards. To automate the detection process, prior works have proposed varieties of machine learning (ML) approaches to train Language Models (LMs) for toxic content detection. However, both their accuracy and transferability across datasets are limited. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in toxic content detection due to their superior zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning ability as well as broad transferability on ML tasks. However, efficiently designing prompts for LLMs remains challenging. Moreover, the high run-time cost of LLMs may hinder their deployments in production. To address these challenges, in this work, we propose BD-LLM, a novel and efficient approach to Bootstrapping and Distilling LLMs for toxic content detection. Specifically, we design a novel prompting method named Decision-Tree-of-Thought (DToT) to bootstrap LLMs' detection performance and extract high-quality rationales. DToT can automatically select more fine-grained context to re-prompt LLMs when their responses lack confidence. Additionally, we use the rationales extracted via DToT to fine-tune student LMs. Our experimental results on various datasets demonstrate that DToT can improve the accuracy of LLMs by up to 4.6%. Furthermore, student LMs fine-tuned with rationales extracted via DToT outperform baselines on all datasets with up to 16.9\% accuracy improvement, while being more than 60x smaller than conventional LLMs. Finally, we observe that student LMs fine-tuned with rationales exhibit better cross-dataset transferability.

The rapid increase in the parameters of deep learning models has led to significant costs, challenging computational efficiency and model interpretability. In this paper, we introduce a novel and straightforward neural network pruning framework that incorporates the Gumbel-Softmax technique. This framework enables the simultaneous optimization of a network's weights and topology in an end-to-end process using stochastic gradient descent. Empirical results demonstrate its exceptional compression capability, maintaining high accuracy on the MNIST dataset with only 0.15\% of the original network parameters. Moreover, our framework enhances neural network interpretability, not only by allowing easy extraction of feature importance directly from the pruned network but also by enabling visualization of feature symmetry and the pathways of information propagation from features to outcomes. Although the pruning strategy is learned through deep learning, it is surprisingly intuitive and understandable, focusing on selecting key representative features and exploiting data patterns to achieve extreme sparse pruning. We believe our method opens a promising new avenue for deep learning pruning and the creation of interpretable machine learning systems., Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures

Multiscale modeling of complex systems is crucial for understanding their intricacies. Data-driven multiscale modeling has emerged as a promising approach to tackle challenges associated with complex systems. On the other hand, self-similarity is prevalent in complex systems, hinting that large-scale complex systems can be modeled at a reduced cost. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale neural network framework that incorporates self-similarity as prior knowledge, facilitating the modeling of self-similar dynamical systems. For deterministic dynamics, our framework can discern whether the dynamics are self-similar. For uncertain dynamics, it can compare and determine which parameter set is closer to self-similarity. The framework allows us to extract scale-invariant kernels from the dynamics for modeling at any scale. Moreover, our method can identify the power law exponents in self-similar systems. Preliminary tests on the Ising model yielded critical exponents consistent with theoretical expectations, providing valuable insights for addressing critical phase transitions in non-equilibrium systems., Comment: 10 pages,7 figures,1 table

Quantifying emergence and modeling emergent dynamics in a data-driven manner for complex dynamical systems is challenging due to the lack of direct observations at the micro-level. Thus, it's crucial to develop a framework to identify emergent phenomena and capture emergent dynamics at the macro-level using available data. Inspired by the theory of causal emergence (CE), this paper introduces a machine learning framework to learn macro-dynamics in an emergent latent space and quantify the degree of CE. The framework maximizes effective information, resulting in a macro-dynamics model with enhanced causal effects. Experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. It quantifies degrees of CE effectively under various conditions and reveals distinct influences of different noise types. It can learn a one-dimensional coarse-grained macro-state from fMRI data, to represent complex neural activities during movie clip viewing. Furthermore, improved generalization to different test environments is observed across all simulation data.

To characterize the complex higher-order interactions among variables within a system, this study introduces a novel framework, termed System Information Decomposition (SID), aimed at decomposing the information entropy of variables into information atoms based on their interrelations. Diverging from the established Partial Information Decomposition (PID) framework, which predominantly concentrates on the directional interactions stemming from an array of source variables to a single target variable, SID adopts a holistic approach, scrutinizing the interactions across all variables within the system. Specifically, we proved all the information atoms are symmetric, which means the disentanglement of unique, redundant, and synergistic information from any specific target variable. Hence, our proposed SID framework can capture the symmetric pairwise and higher-order relationships among variables. This advance positions SID as a promising framework with the potential to foster a deeper understanding of higher-order relationships within complex systems across disciplines.

Air quality prediction is a typical spatio-temporal modeling problem, which always uses different components to handle spatial and temporal dependencies in complex systems separately. Previous models based on time series analysis and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) methods have only modeled time series while ignoring spatial information. Previous GCNs-based methods usually require providing spatial correlation graph structure of observation sites in advance. The correlations among these sites and their strengths are usually calculated using prior information. However, due to the limitations of human cognition, limited prior information cannot reflect the real station-related structure or bring more effective information for accurate prediction. To this end, we propose a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network with Adaptive Edge Attributes (DGN-AEA) on the message passing network, which generates the adaptive bidirected dynamic graph by learning the edge attributes as model parameters. Unlike prior information to establish edges, our method can obtain adaptive edge information through end-to-end training without any prior information. Thus reduced the complexity of the problem. Besides, the hidden structural information between the stations can be obtained as model by-products, which can help make some subsequent decision-making analyses. Experimental results show that our model received state-of-the-art performance than other baselines.

Aiming at evaluating the lifetime of the neutron, we introduce a novel statistical method to analyse the updated compilation of precise measurements including the 2022 dataset of Particle Data Group (PDG). Based on the minimization for the information loss principle, unlike the median statistics method, we apply the most frequent value (MFV) procedure to estimate the neutron lifetime, irrespective of the Gaussian or non-Gaussian distributions. Providing a more robust way, the calculated result of the MFV is $\tau_n=881.16^{+2.25}_{-2.35}$ s with statistical bootstrap errors, while the result of median statistics is $\tau_n=881.5^{+5.5}_{-3}$ s according to the binomial distribution. Using the different central estimates, we also construct the error distributions of neutron lifetime measurements and find the non-Gaussianity, which is still meaningful.

Context. IRAS 19312+1950 is an isolated infrared source that exhibits a characteristic quasi-point-symmetric morphology in the near- and mid-infrared images and is also very bright in molecular radio lines. Because of its unique observational characteristics, various observational studies have been conducted and several hypotheses have been proposed regarding its origin, which is still unclear. So far, it has been suggested that it could be a peculiar evolved star, a young stellar object, or even a red nova remnant. Regardless of which type of object it is ultimately classified as, IRAS 19312+1950 is exceptionally bright in the infrared and molecular radio lines and therefore will undoubtedly be crucial as a prototype of this kind of object having a peculiar nature or unusual evolutionary phase. Aims. This study aims to reveal the molecular composition of the central part of IRAS 19312+1950 by performing an unbiased molecular radio line survey and discussing the origin of the object from a molecular chemical point of view. Methods. We carried out a spectral line survey with the IRAM 30 m telescope towards the center of IRAS 19312+1950 in the 3 and 1.3 mm windows. Results. In total, 28 transition lines of 22 molecular species and those isotopologues are detected towards IRAS 19312+1950, some of which exhibit a broad and a narrow components. Seventeen thermal lines and 1 maser line are newly detected. The molecular species of C$^{17}$O, $^{30}$SiO, HN$^{13}$C, HC$^{18}$O$^{+}$, H$_{2}$CO, and $c$-C$_{3}$H$_{2}$ are detected for the first time in this object. Conclusions. Our results, in combination with previous studies, favor the hypothesis that IRAS 19312+1950 might be a red nova remnant, in which the progenitors that merged to become a red nova may have contained at least two evolved stars with oxygen-rich and carbon-rich chemistry, respectively., Comment: 30 pages, 24 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

The inherent characteristics of lung tissues, which are independent of breathing manoeuvre, may provide fundamental information on lung function. This paper attempted to study function-correlated lung textures and their spatial distribution from CT. 21 lung cancer patients with thoracic 4DCT scans, DTPA-SPECT ventilation images (V), and available pulmonary function test (PFT) measurements were collected. 79 radiomic features were included for analysis, and a sparse-to-fine strategy including subregional feature discovery and voxel-wise feature distribution study was carried out to identify the function-correlated radiomic features. At the subregion level, lung CT images were partitioned and labeled as defected/non-defected patches according to reference V. At the voxel-wise level, feature maps (FMs) of selected feature candidates were generated for each 4DCT phase. Quantitative metrics, including Spearman coefficient of correlation (SCC) and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) for FM-V spatial agreement assessments, intra-class coefficient of correlation (ICC) for FM robustness evaluations, and FM-PFT comparisons, were applied to validate the results. At the subregion level, eight function-correlated features were filtered out with medium-to-large statistical strength (effect size>0.330) to differentiate defected/non-defected lung regions. At the voxel-wise level, FMs of candidates yielded moderate-to-strong voxel-wise correlations with reference V. Among them, FMs of GLDM Dependence Non-uniformity showed the highest robust (ICC=0.96) spatial correlation, with median SCCs ranging from 0.54 to 0.59 throughout ten phases. Its phase-averaged FM achieved a median SCC of 0.60, the median DSC of 0.60/0.65 for high/low functional lung volumes, respectively, and the correlation of 0.646 between the spatially averaged feature values and PFT measurements., Comment: 6 figures, 4 tables

The prediction of adaptive radiation therapy (ART) prior to radiation therapy (RT) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients is important to reduce toxicity and prolong the survival of patients. Currently, due to the complex tumor micro-environment, a single type of high-resolution image can provide only limited information. Meanwhile, the traditional softmax-based loss is insufficient for quantifying the discriminative power of a model. To overcome these challenges, we propose a supervised multi-view contrastive learning method with an additive margin (MMCon). For each patient, four medical images are considered to form multi-view positive pairs, which can provide additional information and enhance the representation of medical images. In addition, the embedding space is learned by means of contrastive learning. NPC samples from the same patient or with similar labels will remain close in the embedding space, while NPC samples with different labels will be far apart. To improve the discriminative ability of the loss function, we incorporate a margin into the contrastive learning. Experimental result show this new learning objective can be used to find an embedding space that exhibits superior discrimination ability for NPC images., Comment: submitted to ICASSP 2023, 5 pages

Online content platforms optimize engagement by providing personalized recommendations to their users. These recommendation systems track and profile users to predict relevant content a user is likely interested in. While the personalized recommendations provide utility to users, the tracking and profiling that enables them poses a privacy issue because the platform might infer potentially sensitive user interests. There is increasing interest in building privacy-enhancing obfuscation approaches that do not rely on cooperation from online content platforms. However, existing obfuscation approaches primarily focus on enhancing privacy but at the same time they degrade the utility because obfuscation introduces unrelated recommendations. We design and implement De-Harpo, an obfuscation approach for YouTube's recommendation system that not only obfuscates a user's video watch history to protect privacy but then also denoises the video recommendations by YouTube to preserve their utility. In contrast to prior obfuscation approaches, De-Harpo adds a denoiser that makes use of a "secret" input (i.e., a user's actual watch history) as well as information that is also available to the adversarial recommendation system (i.e., obfuscated watch history and corresponding "noisy" recommendations). Our large-scale evaluation of De-Harpo shows that it outperforms the state-of-the-art by a factor of 2x in terms of preserving utility for the same level of privacy, while maintaining stealthiness and robustness to de-obfuscation.

Based on the binary time series data of social infection dynamics, we propose a general framework to reconstruct 2-simplex complexes with two-body and three-body interactions by combining the maximum likelihood estimation in statistical inference and introducing the expectation maximization. In order to improve the code running efficiency, the whole algorithm adopts vectorization expression. Through the inference of maximum likelihood estimation, the vectorization expression of the edge existence probability can be obtained, and through the probability matrix, the adjacency matrix of the network can be estimated. We apply a two-step scheme to improve the effectiveness of network reconstruction while reducing the amount of computation significantly. The framework has been tested on different types of complex networks. Among them, four kinds of networks can obtain high reconstruction effectiveness. Besides, we study the influence of noise data or random interference and prove the robustness of the framework, then the effects of two kinds of hyper-parameters on the experimental results are tested. Finally, we analyze which type of network is more suitable for this framework, and propose methods to improve the effectiveness of the experimental results.

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics exhibit a variety of complex phenomena far from equilibrium. It inherits challenges of equilibrium, including accurately describing the joint distribution of a large number of configurations, and also poses new challenges as the distribution evolves over time. Characterizing dynamical phase transitions as an emergent behavior further requires tracking nonequilibrium systems under a control parameter. While a number of methods have been proposed, such as tensor networks for one-dimensional lattices, we lack a method for arbitrary time beyond the steady state and for higher dimensions. Here, we develop a general computational framework to study the time evolution of nonequilibrium systems in statistical mechanics by leveraging variational autoregressive networks, which offer an efficient computation on the dynamical partition function, a central quantity for discovering the phase transition. We apply the approach to prototype models of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, including the kinetically constrained models of structural glasses up to three dimensions. The approach uncovers the active-inactive phase transition of spin flips, the dynamical phase diagram, as well as new scaling relations. The result highlights the potential of machine learning dynamical phase transitions in nonequilibrium systems.

Federated learning (FL) has attracted growing interest for enabling privacy-preserving machine learning on data stored at multiple users while avoiding moving the data off-device. However, while data never leaves users' devices, privacy still cannot be guaranteed since significant computations on users' training data are shared in the form of trained local models. These local models have recently been shown to pose a substantial privacy threat through different privacy attacks such as model inversion attacks. As a remedy, Secure Aggregation (SA) has been developed as a framework to preserve privacy in FL, by guaranteeing the server can only learn the global aggregated model update but not the individual model updates. While SA ensures no additional information is leaked about the individual model update beyond the aggregated model update, there are no formal guarantees on how much privacy FL with SA can actually offer; as information about the individual dataset can still potentially leak through the aggregated model computed at the server. In this work, we perform a first analysis of the formal privacy guarantees for FL with SA. Specifically, we use Mutual Information (MI) as a quantification metric and derive upper bounds on how much information about each user's dataset can leak through the aggregated model update. When using the FedSGD aggregation algorithm, our theoretical bounds show that the amount of privacy leakage reduces linearly with the number of users participating in FL with SA. To validate our theoretical bounds, we use an MI Neural Estimator to empirically evaluate the privacy leakage under different FL setups on both the MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets. Our experiments verify our theoretical bounds for FedSGD, which show a reduction in privacy leakage as the number of users and local batch size grow, and an increase in privacy leakage with the number of training rounds., Comment: Accepted to appear in Proceedings on Privacy Enhancing Technologies (PoPETs) 2023

Context. Level population inversion of hydrogen atoms in ionized gas may lead to stimulated emission of hydrogen recombination lines, and the level populations can in turn be affected by powerful stimulated emissions. Aims. In this work the interaction of the radiation fields and the level population inversion of hydrogen atoms is studied. The effect of the stimulated emissions on the line profiles is also investigated. Methods. Our previous nl-model for calculating level populations of hydrogen atoms and hydrogen recombination lines is improved. The effects of line and continuum radiation fields on the level populations are considered in the improved model. By using this method the properties of simulated hydrogen recombination lines and level populations are used in analyses. Results. The simulations show that hydrogen radio recombination lines are often emitted from the energy level with an inverted population. The widths of Hn$\alpha$ lines can be significantly narrowed by strong stimulated emissions to be even less than 10 km s$^{-1}$. The amplification of hydrogen recombination lines is more affected by the line optical depth than by the total optical depth. The influence of stimulated emission on the estimates of electron temperature and density of ionized gas is evaluated. We find that comparing multiple line-to-continuum ratios is a reliable method for estimating the electron temperature, while the effectiveness of the estimation of electron density is determined by the relative significance of stimulated emission., Comment: Accepted for published in A&A. 25 pages, 13 figures