Search

Online controlled experiments play a crucial role in enabling data-driven decisions across a wide range of companies. Variance reduction is an effective technique to improve the sensitivity of experiments, achieving higher statistical power while using fewer samples and shorter experimental periods. However, typical variance reduction methods (e.g., regression-adjusted estimators) are built upon the intuitional assumption of Gaussian distributions and cannot properly characterize the real business metrics with heavy-tailed distributions. Furthermore, outliers diminish the correlation between pre-experiment covariates and outcome metrics, greatly limiting the effectiveness of variance reduction. In this paper, we develop a novel framework that integrates the Student's t-distribution with machine learning tools to fit heavy-tailed metrics and construct a robust average treatment effect estimator in online controlled experiments, which we call STATE. By adopting a variational EM method to optimize the loglikehood function, we can infer a robust solution that greatly eliminates the negative impact of outliers and achieves significant variance reduction. Moreover, we extend the STATE method from count metrics to ratio metrics by utilizing linear transformation that preserves unbiased estimation, whose variance reduction is more complex but less investigated in existing works. Finally, both simulations on synthetic data and long-term empirical results on Meituan experiment platform demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Compared with the state-of-the-art estimators (CUPAC/MLRATE), STATE achieves over 50% variance reduction, indicating it can reach the same statistical power with only half of the observations, or half the experimental duration., Comment: Accepted by KDD 2024

Marketing optimization plays an important role to enhance user engagement in online Internet platforms. Existing studies usually formulate this problem as a budget allocation problem and solve it by utilizing two fully decoupled stages, i.e., machine learning (ML) and operation research (OR). However, the learning objective in ML does not take account of the downstream optimization task in OR, which causes that the prediction accuracy in ML may be not positively related to the decision quality. Decision Focused Learning (DFL) integrates ML and OR into an end-to-end framework, which takes the objective of the downstream task as the decision loss function and guarantees the consistency of the optimization direction between ML and OR. However, deploying DFL in marketing is non-trivial due to multiple technological challenges. Firstly, the budget allocation problem in marketing is a 0-1 integer stochastic programming problem and the budget is uncertain and fluctuates a lot in real-world settings, which is beyond the general problem background in DFL. Secondly, the counterfactual in marketing causes that the decision loss cannot be directly computed and the optimal solution can never be obtained, both of which disable the common gradient-estimation approaches in DFL. Thirdly, the OR solver is called frequently to compute the decision loss during model training in DFL, which produces huge computational cost and cannot support large-scale training data. In this paper, we propose a decision focused causal learning framework (DFCL) for direct counterfactual marketing optimization, which overcomes the above technological challenges. Both offline experiments and online A/B testing demonstrate the effectiveness of DFCL over the state-of-the-art methods. Currently, DFCL has been deployed in several marketing scenarios in Meituan, one of the largest online food delivery platform in the world., Comment: Accepted by KDD 2024

We study a general smallest intersecting ball problem and its soft-margin variant in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces, which only require the input objects to be compact and convex. These two problems link and unify a series of fundamental problems in computational geometry and machine learning, including smallest enclosing ball, polytope distance, intersection radius, $\ell_1$-loss support vector machine, $\ell_1$-loss support vector data description, and so on. Two general approximation algorithms are presented respectively, and implementation details are given for specific inputs of convex polytopes, reduced polytopes, axis-aligned bounding boxes, balls, and ellipsoids. For most of these inputs, our algorithms are the first results in high-dimensional spaces, and also the first approximation methods. To achieve this, we develop a novel framework for approximating zero-sum games in Euclidean Jordan algebra systems, which may be useful in its own right.

In this paper, we introduce a primal-dual algorithmic framework for solving Symmetric Cone Programs (SCPs), a versatile optimization model that unifies and extends Linear, Second-Order Cone (SOCP), and Semidefinite Programming (SDP). Our work generalizes the primal-dual framework for SDPs introduced by Arora and Kale, leveraging a recent extension of the Multiplicative Weights Update method (MWU) to symmetric cones. Going beyond existing works, our framework can handle SOCPs and mixed SCPs, exhibits nearly linear time complexity, and can be effectively parallelized. To illustrate the efficacy of our framework, we employ it to develop approximation algorithms for two geometric optimization problems: the Smallest Enclosing Sphere problem and the Support Vector Machine problem. Our theoretical analyses demonstrate that the two algorithms compute approximate solutions in nearly linear running time and with parallel depth scaling polylogarithmically with the input size. We compare our algorithms against CGAL as well as interior point solvers applied to these problems. Experiments show that our algorithms are highly efficient when implemented on a CPU and achieve substantial speedups when parallelized on a GPU, allowing us to solve large-scale instances of these problems.

Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) technique extracts blood volume pulse (BVP) signals from subtle pixel changes in video frames. This study introduces rFaceNet, an advanced rPPG method that enhances the extraction of facial BVP signals with a focus on facial contours. rFaceNet integrates identity-specific facial contour information and eliminates redundant data. It efficiently extracts facial contours from temporally normalized frame inputs through a Temporal Compressor Unit (TCU) and steers the model focus to relevant facial regions by using the Cross-Task Feature Combiner (CTFC). Through elaborate training, the quality and interpretability of facial physiological signals extracted by rFaceNet are greatly improved compared to previous methods. Moreover, our novel approach demonstrates superior performance than SOTA methods in various heart rate estimation benchmarks., Comment: under-review

In this work, we propose FastCoT, a model-agnostic framework based on parallel decoding without any further training of an auxiliary model or modification to the LLM itself. FastCoT uses a size-varying context window whose size changes with position to conduct parallel decoding and auto-regressive decoding simultaneously, thus fully utilizing GPU computation resources. In FastCoT, the parallel decoding part provides the LLM with a quick glance of the future composed of approximate tokens, which could lead to faster answers compared to regular autoregressive decoding used by causal transformers. We also provide an implementation of parallel decoding within LLM, which supports KV-cache generation and batch processing. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that FastCoT saves inference time by nearly 20% with only a negligible performance drop compared to the regular approach. Additionally, we show that the context window size exhibits considerable robustness for different tasks.

Marketing is an important mechanism to increase user engagement and improve platform revenue, and heterogeneous causal learning can help develop more effective strategies. Most decision-making problems in marketing can be formulated as resource allocation problems and have been studied for decades. Existing works usually divide the solution procedure into two fully decoupled stages, i.e., machine learning (ML) and operation research (OR) -- the first stage predicts the model parameters and they are fed to the optimization in the second stage. However, the error of the predicted parameters in ML cannot be respected and a series of complex mathematical operations in OR lead to the increased accumulative errors. Essentially, the improved precision on the prediction parameters may not have a positive correlation on the final solution due to the side-effect from the decoupled design. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for solving resource allocation problems to mitigate the side-effects. Our key intuition is that we introduce the decision factor to establish a bridge between ML and OR such that the solution can be directly obtained in OR by only performing the sorting or comparison operations on the decision factor. Furthermore, we design a customized loss function that can conduct direct heterogeneous causal learning on the decision factor, an unbiased estimation of which can be guaranteed when the loss converges. As a case study, we apply our approach to two crucial problems in marketing: the binary treatment assignment problem and the budget allocation problem with multiple treatments. Both large-scale simulations and online A/B Tests demonstrate that our approach achieves significant improvement compared with state-of-the-art., Comment: Accepted by AAAI 2023

The void underneath semi-rigid base is a common defect in roads. There are some difficulties in the detection and repair for this kind of hidden damage, as well as in the evaluation of the effects of grouting treatment. For the detection and maintenance of roads, it is essential to study the detection and judging for voids underneath base and the evaluation of the spread of grout. Through theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and analysis of real data, this research generated the characteristics of under-base voids of different types and dimensions on GPR images, proposed the detecting and dimension-measuring methods for under-base voids, and studied the process and effects of data analysis techniques. (1) The characteristics of under-base voids of different types (air-filled, water-filled or grout-treated) and dimensions (height and horizontal dimensions), on A-scan and B-scan GPR image respectively, were analyzed theoretically. (2) Approaches for detecting voids and for estimating its height were studied, focusing on voids with a height ranging from 0.01m to 0.3m. (3) The approach for estimating the horizontal dimension of voids was studied, focusing on voids with a length ranging from 0.04m to 0.52m. (4) The data processing process was discussed. Also, the effects of different data processing techniques were studied in terms of noise filtering and attenuation compensation, and their influence on the image characteristics was also discussed., Comment: Master's thesis, in Chinese