1. Emerging strains of watermelon mosaic virus in Southeastern France: model-based estimation of the dates and places of introduction
- Author
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Lionel Roques, Samuel Soubeyrand, Emily M. Walker, Julien Papaïx, Karine Berthier, Etienne K. Klein, Jimmy Garnier, Benoît Moury, Cécile Desbiez, Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux (BioSP), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Unité de Pathologie Végétale (PV), Laboratoire de Mathématiques (LAMA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry]), INRAE grant 'MEDIA', Biostatistique et Processus Spatiaux (BIOSP), Station de Pathologie Végétale (AVI-PATHO), Laboratoire Analyse et Mathématiques Appliquées (LAMA), Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Gustave Eiffel (UNIV GUSTAVE EIFFEL), and Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,food.ingredient ,Population dynamics ,Mathematics and computing ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Science ,Population ,Potyvirus ,Sud-est France ,Virus phytopathogène ,Biology ,01 natural sciences ,Models, Biological ,Invasive species ,Competition (biology) ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,food ,Genus ,[MATH.MATH-AP]Mathematics [math]/Analysis of PDEs [math.AP] ,Watermelon mosaic virus ,education ,souche émergente ,030304 developmental biology ,media_common ,Ecological modelling ,Plant Diseases ,Probability ,Abiotic component ,Ecological epidemiology ,[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,theoritical ecology ,Potyviridae ,génétique des populations ,biology.organism_classification ,[SDV.BV.PEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Phytopathology and phytopharmacy ,Evolutionary biology ,[SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology ,Medicine ,France ,Theoretical ecology ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
Where and when alien organisms are successfully introduced are central questions to elucidate biotic and abiotic conditions favorable to the introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. We propose a modelling framework to analyze multiple introductions by several invasive genotypes or genetic variants, in competition with a resident population, when observations provide knowledge on the relative proportions of each variant at some dates and places. This framework is based on a mechanistic-statistical model coupling a reaction-diffusion model with a probabilistic observation model. We apply it to a spatio-temporal dataset reporting the relative proportions of five genetic variants of watermelon mosaic virus (WMV, genus Potyvirus, family Potyviridae) in infections of commercial cucurbit fields. Despite the parsimonious nature of the model, it succeeds in fitting the data well and provides an estimation of the dates and places of successful introduction of each emerging variant as well as a reconstruction of the dynamics of each variant since its introduction.
- Published
- 2020
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