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• Data-based models with EMD are proposed for deformation monitoring of concrete dams. • The proposed models can well simulate the irreversible component of concrete dam deformation and significantly decrease the over-fitting levels. • A new model selection criterion, namely Over-fitting coefficient, is proposed for evaluating and selecting dam health monitoring models. • The Over-fitting coefficient can better reflect over-fitting levels of individual monitoring models compared to traditional model selection criteria. Data-based models are extensively applied in concrete dam health monitoring. In this paper, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is adopted to extract and visualize the irreversible component of deformation monitoring sequence. Consequently proper mathematical formulation of the irreversible component of deformation monitoring model for concrete dams can be established, and the problem of improperly assuming the mathematical form of irreversible component when constructing data-based models is well addressed. The periodic component of the deformation time series is modelled by regression and three machine learning algorithms (i.e., Extreme learning machine, Support Vector Machine based on Grid search and Cross-Verification, and Back Propagation Neural Networks optimized by Genetic Algorithm and Simulated Annealing) respectively. The data-based models with the EMD are able to effectively improve the performance of formulating irreversible component of concrete dam deformation and decrease the over-fitting levels. A new model selection criterion, namely Over-fitting coefficient, is proposed for evaluating and selecting the optimum model among candidate monitoring models. The Over-fitting coefficient can better reflect over-fitting levels of individual monitoring models compared to traditional model selection criteria. As a case study, the displacement and strain monitoring data from the YL gravity dam are modeled by data-based models with the EMD and machine learning algorithms. It is shown that data-based models with the EMD are of higher prediction accuracy and lower rate of false alarm in deformation monitoring than traditional models. The Over-fitting coefficient can better reflect over-fitting levels of monitoring models compared to the error measurement criteria and information criteria. The case study highlights the merits of the proposed data-based models and the model selection criterion for health monitoring of concrete dams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A temperature component is given by theoretical inference and parameter optimization. • Separate modeling technique is proposed based on ICEEMDAN and clustering analysis. • The ET-SMT-DELM model is established by a multi-output deep extreme learning machine. • The proposed model has high accuracy, credibility and interpretability. The anatomy of service status through health monitoring models is essential to long-term structural safety. Since deformation is the intuitive representation of the dam's operating condition, it is crucial to investigate the deformation monitoring model with high accuracy and strong interpretability for the safety management of high arch dams. A novel deformation monitoring model is proposed by incorporating impulse response-based equivalent temperature (ET) and machine learning-aided separate modeling technique (SMT). This methodology has three main sources of novelty. First, the impulse response-based equivalent temperature and corresponding temperature component are derived from heat transfer and temperature convolution theories. Then, the model parameters are identified by an improved firefly algorithm. Second, the components in the monitored displacement are progressively stripped out by clustering analysis, separation under equal water level conditions, and a robust signal decomposition technique. Third, the separated deformation components and environmental factors are modeled by the multi-output deep extreme learning machine (DELM) with autoencoder, and the monitoring model ET-SMT-DELM is thus established. The world's highest arch dam is selected to illustrate the proposed model, and the prediction accuracy, early warning performance, component shares, and impulse response mechanism are comprehensively investigated by comparing with several typical baseline models. The results show that the overfitting of the proposed model is reduced, and the prediction and early warning performance is significantly improved. The resulting temperature impulse response function and component shares imply that the interpretability of the model is also enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]