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"Rural Australia" has long been a special site of political contestation. Staking the terms of public depictions of "the rural", "the bush", or "country life" is a constitutive thread running through Australian settler colonial identity and a cornerstone of national electoral politics. This paper analyses major News Corporation media outlets' presentation of an evolving political campaign, comparing contesting representations of farming and rural Australia deployed by the Morrison Coalition government and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action, in the period between the government's re-election in May 2019 and July 2021. The paper steps through the key tactical discursive moves made by these contesting parties. It argues that in their depictions of rural Australia there are two important features that these perspectives share. Both embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation, and both are silent on the related social and economic transformations that undergird the "crisis" of the rural. Consequently, public political contestation over rural policy unfolds without engaging transforming structural arrangements that fundamentally organise work and life on the land. • Presents comparative depictions of rurality by the Australian prime minister and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action. • Political contests over the representation of the rural during the time of accelerating climate change are shown to have strong temporal framings. • Both government and Farmers for Climate Action embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation and both are silent on socio-economic transformations. • Farmers for Climate Action have made significant steps towards normalising the idea that farming and climate activism go hand in hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper presents the first on-the-ground study of attitudes towards just transition ideas in Australian coal communities. • It highlights the range of specific anxieties and reservations that workers and individuals in these communities have about these ideas. • The study highlights the dire need for local autonomy and control over any transition planning in these regions. Over the past several years, numerous actors across Australian society have increasingly advocated 'just transition' policies to help coal communities move beyond their reliance on fossil fuel extraction. As part of this, individuals from the environmental movement, trade unions, various NGOs and the private sector have called for a range of initiatives designed to help maintain the social and economic integrity of these regions as coal inevitably declines. Yet while just transition ideas have grown in popularity in these numerous forums in Australian society, it remains unclear how they are being understood by the very workers and communities for whom they are being proposed. To shed light on this question, we conducted interviews with residents of coal communities throughout Eastern Australia. We found that respondents had several key anxieties about just transition ideas and their impacts on their lives. In this paper, we break our findings down into five main themes that help explain these anxieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• South Australia is leading low carbon energy transitions in Australia. • Socio-technical transitions are complex, non-linear and follow multiple adaptive pathways. • Complex adaptive systems and risk society theory can be integrated to better understand transitions. • Bold leadership and innovative policy are required to navigate transitions in a reflexive modernity. • Governance can exploit crises to justify transition policy in response to future risk and uncertainty. Renewable energy transitions are occurring across the globe in response to climate change. Such socio-technical transitions are complex and non-linear. They require bold leadership and innovative policy, both in response to environmental risk and to navigate political, technical and socio-economic conditions. This paper integrates complex adaptive systems and risk society theory to inform a discussion on regional socio-technical transitions. South Australia is forging its own adaptive pathway, and in doing so, is leading energy transitions in Australia. Utilising the complex adaptive cycle to frame the state's renewable energy transition, the path can be seen to be evolving from a simple first modernity to a multi-dimensional second modernity. Socio-technical transitions are partly a by-product of responses to risk. While there is no single map for navigating societal transitions, this paper proposes that risk, in the context of risk society theory, is an important guiding dimension for understanding transformational change in socio-technical systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to seriously affect agricultural livelihoods and food security in all Pacific Island countries. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation contends that, to adapt, both 'modern' and Indigenous agricultural practices and knowledge are needed. A challenge lies in combining agricultural knowledge systems and enabling adaptive knowledge to be shared amongst Pacific Islanders. Opportunities to integrate different types of agricultural knowledge (including 'modern' and Indigenous) are needed. This paper argues that international labour mobility programmes provide an avenue for knowledge exchange that can support climate change adaptation in agriculture. It presents empirical evidence from research with 33 Pacific Islanders who grow crops in their home countries and were employed in Australia's Seasonal Worker Programme (SWP). We demonstrate how SWP participation opened new possibilities for climate change adaptation in agriculture in the Pacific Islands. Adaptive knowledge stems from SWP workers' exposure to different agricultural skills and ideas in Australia, combined with their knowledge and experience of crop production in their countries of origin. SWP participation created opportunities for workers to draw on different agricultural skills and knowledge on return to the Pacific Islands. The ability for SWP workers to then exchange adaptive knowledge with other Pacific Islanders is enabled by their social relationships, the likes of which an official agricultural extension officer might not have to the same degree. So far, such adaptive agricultural knowledge and skills exchanges are serendipitous. There is scope to explicitly build climate change knowledge exchange into agriculture-focused international labour mobility schemes. • International labour mobility schemes facilitate agricultural knowledge exchange. • Labour mobility migrants adapt acquired agricultural knowledge to their countries. • International labour mobility schemes can build adaptive capacity in agriculture. • Adaptive capacity from labour mobility can spread via agricultural extension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by CMIP5 and CMIP6. • Vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. • Lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 50% reduction in far southwest Australia. • Modelled median projection of runoff shows a 20% reduction in far southeast Australia. Projections of streamflow under future climate are essential for developing adaptation strategies in the water and related sectors. This paper presents nationwide streamflow projections for Australia informed by climate change signals in CMIP6 GCMs and compares the projections with those from CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled future runoff projections driven by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs are relatively similar for far southern Australia. The median projection is a 50% reduction in mean annual runoff in far southwest Australia and 20% reduction in far southeast Australia by 2046–2075 relative to 1976–2015 under the high SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 global warming scenario. The vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs project less winter rainfall across Australia. As most of the runoff in far southern Australia occurs in winter and spring, the lower winter rainfall translates to a significant reduction in annual runoff. It is therefore prudent to plan and manage for a reduction in future water resources, particularly in the densely populated and important agricultural regions in southeast Australia. There is less agreement between GCMs in the summer rainfall projection, with the CMIP6 GCMs generally projecting a wetter future (or smaller decrease in rainfall) than the CMIP5 GCMs. The modelled median projection for mean annual runoff is a 10% reduction in the south-east coast, 5% reduction in the north-east coast and little change in northern Australia. More GCMs project an increase rather than a decrease in the interannual variability of rainfall, and this would further amplify multi-year hydrological droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) systems have the potential to provide simultaneous heating and cooling, allowing for energy exchange between users with different needs. However, their viability in mild climates with a higher share of cooling demand remains unclear. In this paper, we propose a framework for assessing the engineering, economic and environmental performance of a 5GDHC system compared to a state-of-the-art business-as-usual solution and demonstrate it through a practical case study for a university campus in Melbourne, Australia. When accessible heat sources and sinks are available, the 5GDHC system provides a cost-effective solution, with annual cost savings between 9 and 29 % and GHG emissions reduction between 25 and 58 % compared to an already advanced business-as-usual system. Additionally, by using peak off-peak tariffs and an hourly emission factor for the electricity consumed, we demonstrate the 5GDHC operational flexibility in pursuing different objectives, such as minimising cost or emissions, respectively. The results suggest that 5GDHC systems are an economically and environmentally viable solution in milder climates, and a successful implementation of 5GDHC in Australia can create new market opportunities and pave the way for its adoption in other countries with similar climatic conditions and no established history of district heating systems. • 5GDHC systems are analysed in a new context with a milder climate. • A multi-dimensional assessment framework is proposed. • The framework is demonstrated through a practical case study in Melbourne, Australia. • Flexibility is assessed through varying electricity tariffs and emission factors. • The strong performance of the 5GDHC system offers insights into similar contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerated impacts of climate change pose significant challenges for natural resource management (NRM), challenging traditional decision-making approaches. Foresight provides a range of suitable methods for informing NRM due to high uncertainty and complexity. Foresight processes are inherently political endeavours because they are used to allocate resources and engage in normative questions of what constitutes a desirable future. Existing empirical examples suggest that broader political and institutional settings may constrain foresight in NRM. However, to date, research has not explored the broader contexts that shape foresight processes. The paper draws on qualitative and quantitative data from an exploratory survey with 32 regional NRM organisations (NRMOs) across Australia. It develops an exploratory framework that situates foresight interventions within nested scales, to consider how broader socio-cultural, political and institutional contexts shape and constrain how NRMOs apply foresight and how its outcomes are taken up in decision-making. We have found that NRMOs are using a broad range of foresight methods with five categories of outcomes, including relationship building, knowledge generation and integration; capacity building; strategy development; and normative outcomes. We argue that increased attention to normative outcomes may support NRM to explicitly engage with the political dimensions of long-term planning. Despite this, the broader socio-cultural and environmental contexts create a challenging disjunct wherein foresight interventions face multiple constraints and tensions. • A wide range of foresight methods are being used in natural resource management. • Foresight supports engagement with normative dimensions of environmental planning. • A nested framework supports analysis of contexts in which foresight is used. • Socio-cultural, political and environmental contexts can limit impact of foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transformative change is needed in landscape practice to enhance its climate agency. • Little is known about the barriers and facilitators of designing for climate change. • Insights from Australian practitioners highlight lack of agency as a key barrier. • Transformation in structures and systems of decision-making processes is needed. • Improved advocacy, engaging with policy and collaboration advance designers' agency. The way we plan and design our landscapes, infrastructure, and cities has to transform if we want to meet the needs of our society and address climate change without breaching the earth's ecological boundaries. Landscape architects are known as environmental stewards. They are trained to create a balance between the built and natural environments. However, landscape architects' agency to lead climate change actions is restricted. Little is known about the barriers to addressing climate change in landscape architectural practice, and the levers to increase landscape architects' agency in climate change leadership. This paper addresses this gap through an in-depth empirical analysis of barriers and facilitators of climate change action from the perspective of landscape architecture professionals. In-depth interviews were conducted with 24 practitioners from Australia. The results show that those interviewed perceived the profession had limited agency and influence in leading climate decisions. Other barriers exist and are grouped against the three spheres of transformation: 1) design implementation barriers influencing the built outcomes (practical); 2) structures and systems barriers influencing the design decision-making processes (political); and 3) socio-cultural barriers including values, ideologies, and beliefs (personal). The most restricting barriers that emerged were those related to limited project budget and timeframes, informational and technological aspects (access to reliable data, tools, and skillsets), as well as those related to political systems and structures in place (regulations, and design standards). Key facilitators to address existing barriers are identified, including creating awareness through practice and advocacy, active involvement of professionals in all life stages of projects, especially in planning and policy creation, and closer collaborations with other built environment sectors beyond sub-consultancy. The findings can pave the way towards increased agency and impact of the profession to bring climate change agendas to the forefront of landscape design practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantile-quantile rainfall mapping methods are extended to improve streamflow simulations. • Extensions correct rainfall bias at multiple time scales and model rainfall autocorrelation. • Methods reduce bias in rainfall sequencing metrics for downscaled GCM simulations. • Methods reduce bias in streamflow simulations forced by downscaled GCM simulations. Global circulation models (GCMs) provide important insights into future climate change. Bias-correction of downscaled GCM output is integral to any hydrological investigations of climate change due to discrepancies between the statistics of downscaled GCM simulations and observations. Many bias-correction techniques have been developed to support hydrological applications. However, there have been few comparisons of the sensitivity of hydrological simulations to different bias-correction assumptions. This paper investigates the importance of two common assumptions: (i) simultaneously correcting bias at multiple time scales, and (ii) explicitly handling rainfall autocorrelation; in quantile mapping of downscaled GCM rainfall data for hydrological simulation. Four quantile mapping methods are applied to correct bias in dynamically downscaled reanalysis and historical GCM simulations of rainfall for 11 catchments in south-eastern Australia and the performance of bias-corrected rainfall and streamflow simulations is evaluated. All quantile mapping methods investigated can effectively eliminate bias in monthly and annual rainfall totals. Quantile mapping methods that consider differences in the temporal dependence (autocorrelation) structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall are most effective in reducing bias in rainfall sequencing statistics, such as probability of consecutive wet or dry days. Streamflow simulations of mean and high streamflow percentiles are underestimated when generated using rainfall that is corrected using quantile mapping methods that do not consider differences in the temporal dependence structure of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. Future hydrological investigations of climate change should therefore adopt methods that explicitly consider the temporal dependence structures of downscaled GCM and observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We modify a method to assess yield of carryover reservoir with environmental flow. • The method can be applied at large scales, under historic and future climates. • We quantify yield declines due to climate change and environmental flow provision. Protecting freshwater systems to ensure sustainability requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from local to global. There is growing acceptance that environmental flows must be protected to sustain river channels and floodplain ecosystems downstream of reservoirs. Meeting environmental water requirements has proven difficult because they reduce water yield available for human use – a particular challenge in regions already experiencing declining water availability with climate change. A further challenge is the difficulty of assessing the impact of environmental water requirements on water availability for other purposes. This paper provides a modification of the Gould-Dincer method to assess the yield of carry-over reservoirs subject to environmental water requirements. The method characterizes reservoir inflows using readily available flow characteristics (annual mean and C v). We develop and test the method using ten examples with well-understood environmental water requirements and a range of annual flow C v s. We then demonstrate this method at continental scale, to investigate the impact on yield of providing high-reliability supply including environmental water requirements, under a changing climate. According to our results, considering climate change and environmental flow provision simultaneously, the decline in water yield is projected to be about 27% and 18% respectively for Australia and US (based on hypothetical reservoirs capacity of one times mean annual inflow). Adapting environmental flow demands to future hydrological conditions results in a 2% and 3% increase in Australia and US-wide yield for human use respectively. While further testing is needed, the method provides a simple and rapid way to estimate the impact of providing environmental flow on yield, applicable at global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly warming planet provides a significant challenge to the design, delivery, and maintenance of habitable housing across Australia. Information on the adequacy of current measures for cooling Indigenous houses in regional and remote communities in relation to climate change and rising energy consumption costs is lacking. Such information is needed to better protect low socio-economic status householders, people with pre-existing health conditions, and people living in climatically exposed regions. This article models the thermal performance of both existing and 'improved' (built to current national construction code standards) housing stock in relation to various occupancy density, cooling system, and ventilation practice scenarios. This modelling was undertaken for housing in Australia's tropical, arid, and hot/mild climate zones, matching the sites where most discrete Indigenous communities are located. Results show that retrofitting existing housing stock and even building new stock to meet recommended standards are not adequate measures for current or future climate changes. This paper challenges current knowledge, policy, and practices regarding Indigenous housing, demonstrating that significant reform is necessary to maintain habitable conditions and improve energy resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 369 recovered a stratigraphically complete, Santonian-aged, pelagic sedimentary sequence at Site U1513 on the Naturaliste Plateau (33°47.6084′S, 112°29.1338′E) at ~2800 m water depth. The site was located at ~60°S paleolatitude in Cretaceous times. A total of 59 samples studied from Holes 1513A and 1513B yielded 140 calcareous and nine agglutinated benthic foraminiferal taxa. Gavelinellids (Notoplanulina, Gavelinella, Anomalinoides) and Gyroidinoides spp., are the most abundant taxa overall and also dominate most samples. We also report 382 foraminiferal stable isotopic measurements and infer cooling [of ~5 °C in surface waters and 2 °C at the seafloor] based on changes in δ18O values for benthic and planktonic taxa through the Santonian at Site U1513. Inferred cooling was accompanied by changes in planktonic and benthic foraminiferal assemblages. At Site U1513, benthic foraminiferal taxonomic richness declines by 15 species (from 20– 25 to 5–10 taxa) towards the upper Santonian. Within this interval, epifaunal, oxic foraminifera diminish in absolute and relative abundance, and there is a parallel relative increase in opportunistic taxa and infaunal foraminifera. Changes in benthic foraminiferal communities indicate a shift from oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions in the bottom water despite the general cooling trend. This paper explores the causes and effects of the paleoenvironmental changes in the bottom waters. • surface and bottom waters were differently affected by the Santonian cooling. • Ecologic groups within benthic and planktonic foraminifera show different reactions to pronounced cooling. • surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera record cooling by ~5 °C. • the seafloor cooled by ~2.5 °C during the onset of the Late Cretaceous cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Wildfires are becoming more severe and frequent and their effects increasingly expose water resources to stress. • Climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topography, and landcover data from 92 catchments were combined to quantify the contribution of wildfire to streamflow variability across Australian temperate forests. • On average wildfire regimes relatively results in 8.8% increases in streamflow across Australian temperate forests. • Wildfire effects on regional streamflow varied spatially depending on hydroclimate factors, particularly precipitation. As wildfires become more frequent and severe, there are concerns regarding their impacts on water yield from forested catchments. While there are many studies in Australia about the effects of individual wildfires on streamflow at fine scales (<1 km2) in specific geographic settings, the effects of wildfire regimes on streamflow at broad spatial scales across temperate forests in Australia are not well understood. In this paper, we combined climate, wildfire, streamflow records (1975 to 2018), topographic, and landcover data from 92 catchments (74 – 4740 km2) in the Australian temperate zone to quantify the contribution of wildfire regimes over time to streamflow variability in different hydroclimatic settings (humid, dry sub-humid, and semi-arid) and geographic regions (Southeast Australia (SEA), Southwest Western Australia (SWWA), and Tasmania (TAS)). Wildfire regimes were represented by two metrics: the burnt area to drainage area (BDA) ratio for wildfire events in each year and a spatially averaged metric of Time Since Fire (TSF), which is a spatial average of time since the last wildfire in the catchment. By comparing prefire and postfire runoff ratios our study found that on average there was a short-term increase in runoff ratio (∼3% in year 1 and ∼6% in year 2 post-fire) after wildfires with BDA > 25%. No influence of fire was found in the long-term (15–20 years after the wildfire) runoff ratio. We found that wildfire regime, measured by TSF, explained ∼8.8% of the variation in annual streamflow across the Australian temperate zone, and that with decreasing TSF (i.e., increased wildfire impact), the average streamflow increased. Streamflow variation explained by wildfire regimes varied with hydroclimate. The explained variance of streamflow by wildfire regimes in semi-arid catchments (23%) and dry sub-humid catchments (13%) were higher than humid catchments (5%). Our results provide a broad-scale understanding of how wildfire regimes influence streamflow variability at broad temporal and spatial scales, and provided important context and baseline information for determining the implications of changes in climate and fire regimes for regional water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the past behaviour and present status of Australian beach systems and their likely response to the impacts of climate change in the coming century. The 2021 IPCC AR6 report, besides highlighting rising sea level and changing storm tracks in the Australian region, places high confidence in general recession of most Australian beaches by 2100. However, Holocene barrier studies, decades of field survey data from a number of sites and satellite mapping of the entire coast indicate that 78% of Australia's beaches have been stable over the past 30–40 years. The data also indicate that while some beaches are receding, others are accreting, and the majority are stable. A sea-level tipping point is yet to be reached and these beaches are unlikely to begin recession in the timeframe or on the scale predicted by AR6 during the 21st millennium. The field data also documents considerable variation between beaches, even adjoining beaches, highlighting the need to undertake studies and predictions at a local level. The issue with the AR6 predictions is the simplistic modelling applied on a global scale, which while seemingly attractive, cannot deliver the level of detail required at the local level. In addition, shifting pressure belts and wave climates, may have at least the same, if not a greater magnitude of impact on many beaches, as the sea level rise. In order to make accurate predictions of future beach behaviour a sediment compartment approach is advocated, based on detailed seabed topography, sediment sources and paths, and changing regional wave and tide regimes. It seems unlikely that a single sea level tipping point will trigger widespread recession around Australia, rather sea level in combination with other regional and local factors will determine when and how each beach responds to these impacts. • Modelling that predicts massive Australian beach retreat is questioned. • Most Australian beaches are presently stable. • A sea level tipping point is still decades away. • Local investigations are required to address and model future changes. • A sediment compartment approach to coastal management is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented damage to our society and economy, globally impacting progress towards the SDGs. The integrated perspective that Agenda 2030 calls for is ever more important for understanding the vulnerability of our eco-socio-economic systems and for designing policies for enhanced resilience. Since the emergence of COVID-19, countries and international institutions have strengthened their monitoring systems to produce timely data on infections, fostering data-driven decision-making often without the support of systemic-based simulation models. Evidence from the initial phases of the pandemic indicates that countries that were able to implement effective policies before the number of cases grew large (e.g. Australia) managed to contain COVID-19 to a much greater extent than others. We argue that prior systemic knowledge of a phenomenon provides the essential information to correctly interpret data, develop a better understanding of the emerging behavioural patterns and potentially develop early qualitative awareness of how to react promptly in the early phases of destructive phenomena, eventually providing the ground for building more effective simulation models capable of better anticipating the effects of policies. This is even more important as, on its path to 2030, humanity will face other challenges of similar dynamic nature. Chief among these is Climate Change. In this paper, we show how a Systems Thinking and System Dynamics modelling approach is useful for developing a better understanding of these and other issues, and how systemic lessons learned from the COVID-19 case can help decision makers anticipate the destructive dynamics of Climate Change by improving perceptions of the potential impacts of reinforcing feedback and delays, ultimately leading to more timely interventions to achieve the SDGs and mitigate Climate Change risks. • COVID-19 and Climate Change display similar archetypal structures, relevant in describing the early phases of the phenomena. • Systemic qualitative approaches are useful for easy and early awareness of the potential evolution of destructive phenomena. • Early understanding of the archetypical structures with systemic frameworks is essential to anticipating adverse behaviours. • Lessons learned from COVID-19 should warn policy makers not to underestimate the accelerating dynamics of Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities must transform in order to address the challenge of climate change and to achieve societal ambitions such as the sustainable development goals. However, a key impediment to achieving transformation is underdeveloped understandings of how key actors and sectors within the built environment work together to achieve goals. This paper addresses these gaps by developing and visually presenting a process map to describe: the key processes involved in producing the built environment across its life stages; key sectors of the built environment, their key actors, and the activities coordinated between them. The process map was peer reviewed by an expert reference group of built environment professionals active in Australia and the UK. The motivation for developing this process map is to facilitate future research to identify and expedite opportunities for coordinated action to address significant societal challenges such as climate change action, and the sustainable development goals – which require transformative action in cities. • Cities must transform to address climate change • We develop a process map to describe the production of the built environment • Process map describes fundamental activities for producing the built environment • Process map spans built environment life stages; identifying activities and interactions of key sectors and actors • Can be applied to inform transformative action targeted at challenges such as climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to significant weather variabilities of rainfalls, potential water savings through rainwater tanks are expected to vary significantly. Moreover, within some large cities, significant spatial variations are reported. With the emerging impacts of climate change, existing weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings are also likely to be changed, which are unknown to the end-users. This paper presents the impacts of climate change on current weather and spatial variabilities of potential water savings for Adelaide, a large city in Australia. Future daily rainfall data was collected from a data portal provided by the Australian government derived through a statistical downscaling modelling. Projected daily rainfall data was fed to an earlier developed daily water balance model (eTank) to calculate water savings for three future periods; 2030–2050, 2055–2075 and 2080–2100. Three weathers (dry, average and wet) in each period were considered along with two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and two tank sizes (5 kL and 10 kL). It is found that varying outcomes without any general trend are expected depending on the projection scenario, period and weather condition. Contrary to the general perception, it is found that in several cases, the potential water savings are expected to increase compared to the current climate. Most of those expected increases in water savings are attributed to the projection scenario of RCP 4.5, in the near future and in dry years. In the far-future and with the projection scenario of RCP 8.5, most of the potential water savings are expected to decrease compared to the current climate. Regarding changes in spatial variability of water savings, it is found that the spatial variability will decrease in the near future, but will increase towards the far future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale eddies drive variability in phytoplankton functional trait composition and primary productivity (PP) relative to adjacent waters. Offshore waters in southeast Australia are subject to substantial mesoscale eddies that form when the East Australian Current (EAC) travels poleward along the coast, forming distinctive habitats in the upper ocean. Eddies provide an important enrichment mechanism in the nitrogen-limited waters of the Tasman Sea, yet there is limited knowledge of PP within cold- and warm-core eddies in the region and how physico-chemical and biological factors affect phytoplankton communities in this variable environment. We addressed the scarcity of observations by quantifying net PP using 13C isotopic enrichment incubations of surface waters over 10 degrees of latitude, comparing phytoplankton species composition in five different environments: a coastal shelf station, an oceanic cold and warm-core eddy, and a coastal dipole. Cold-core (cyclonic) eddies were significantly more productive than their warm-core (anticyclonic) counterparts (∼35 versus 0 mg C m−3 d−1), with centric diatoms the most prominent phytoplankton group, with a relatively high centric:pennate ratio. The diffuse attenuation coefficient, K d (PAR), and silicate were the best overall predictors of phytoplankton composition, explaining 88% of variation based on pigment analysis and size fractionation. Variance in net PP did not correlate significantly with physico-chemical parameters frequently used in PP models (temperature, K d [PAR], Chl a), yet inclusion of size-fractionated Chl a generated substantial improvement in our statistical model (from 36 to 77%). We show that cold-core eddies play a key role in regulating PP in eastern Australian waters and highlight a need for eddy-resolving models to incorporate descriptors of phytoplankton size structure to improve the accuracy of PP forecasts in eddy intensive regions. • Mesoscale eddies modulate primary productivity dynamics along the East Australian coast. • Knowledge of phytoplankton size structure improves prediction of primary productivity. • Phytoplankton community structure can be predicted from light and silicate levels. • Centric diatoms are the most prominent phytoplankton group in East Australian cyclonic eddies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]