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This article discusses the factors that contribute to productivity, growth, and development in India and beyond. It highlights the importance of innovation behavior, productivity and efficiency of the MSME sector, firm exit decisions, low labor productivity, non-performing financial sector assets, cross-border mergers, and the creation of decent employment. The article also emphasizes the role of productivity growth in accelerating economic growth and improving people's welfare. It examines specific issues such as firms' performance and innovation, technical efficiency of banks, characteristics of innovative firms, financial accessibility for MSMEs, firm exit in manufacturing industries, the impact of cross-border mergers on innovation efforts, and productivity disparities across Indian states. [Extracted from the article]

This article explores the controversial topic of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on emerging, developing, and underdeveloped economies. The authors highlight that while some studies show positive effects of FDI on economic growth, others fail to find such a relationship. The article presents six papers that delve into various aspects of FDI, including its effects on economic diversification, technology transfer, innovation, global value chains, and cultural distance. The findings suggest that the relationship between FDI and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. The article concludes by suggesting future research avenues, including the role of government corruption, the interaction between FDI and human capital, and the differentiation of FDI types. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: This paper aims to estimate a statistical model of the country risk determination as represented by the country price earnings ratio (PE) to identify potentially mispriced countries. It uses the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and a dummy indicator for market-related events (i.e. financial crises), both approximating the business cycle. The model is used to compare a major Asian country's (i.e. Japan) risk with Western countries' risk. Design/methodology/approach: The model used finance variables such as the systemic, non-diversifiable, risk and foreign direct investments to characterize any country risk. A random effects model with panel data estimated the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on PE. The simultaneity problem was checked using two stage least squares and some lagged independent variables. Findings: The results explained to investors the country risk contributing factors: PE was positively correlated with variables that may increase dividends and market risk premia similar to GDP growth rates and total risk and negatively correlated with variables that increase market risk, namely, nominal risk-free interest rates and financial crises. Japan's PE seemed to exceed most of the Western countries considered here, implying lower risks, lower interest rates and higher growth in the major Asian country Japan. Originality/value: This paper focuses on the effectiveness of country risk measures in predicting periods of intense instability, similar to financial crises. This study contributes a model to measure market risk premium, using PE (or inversely, the earnings yield) as a proxy variable. Investors can use this risk measure in picking less risky stocks to include in their portfolio, calling for liberalizing Asian countries' financial markets to improve their stock market capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the business cycle transmission of the United Kingdom (UK) and France as a part of a wider group (e.g. European Exchange Rate Mechanism or G7), despite their historical links and regional significance. Thus, herein paper aims to analyse the inter-dependence of these economies and how a shock from one of them affects the other for the data since 1978 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, first, preliminary statistics were calculated in order to describe the historical relationship between these countries. The econometric part estimates the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to assess the inter-dependence of the economies. VAR model allows further to inspect the impulse response functions that shows the shock dynamics from one country to another. In order to verify if a shock from one of the economies is important to another, the study uses granger causality test. Findings: The study establishes a strong link between these countries. A business cycle is transmitted significantly between the economies of France and UK, with a single standard deviation shock from France resulting in a long term effect of 0.4% change in gross domestic product (GDP) of UK and 1% vice versa. Additionally changes in GDP of both of the countries significantly Granger-cause change to GDP of the corresponding economy. Originality/value: This is the first empirical study investigating the business cycle transmission between France and UK and providing a quantitative assessment of their inter-dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using a political economy framework, this paper examines the financing trend, by investigating three systematic spikes occurring between 2004 and 2016. The study aims to provide a useful review of the interaction of politics, financial decisions and educational outcomes. Additionally it provides a useful guide, especially to academics, to identify political and economic conceptualizations that will predict expenditure decision-making of political actors and to be able to provide policy advice on the future effect of such decisions on availability and accessibility of public goods. Design/methodology/approach: The paper adopts a secondary data analysis approach, drawing upon secondary data sources such as from the Ministry of Education, budget statements from the Ministry of Finance, as well as relevant policy documents. Additional information for the study was also extracted from the manifestos of the two leading political parties in Ghana – the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress and their viewpoints on financing of education in Ghana. Findings: Using two epochal years when financing of education peaked (2008 and 2012), which coincided with election years, the trend lends itself to being interpreted as opportunistic spending. It appears to give credence to a conclusion that the increases in spending are more politically directed and nonneutral. Originality/value: This paper fulfills an identified need to study the trend of basic education financing in Ghana, which will help policy actors make better-informed decisions with the introduction of the novel "adaptive opportunism" framework analysis tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the discontinuity design. Findings: The authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms' market power during the business cycle. Originality/value: The authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Rising crude oil prices are likely to have an asymmetric and nonlinear negative impact on GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask the following questions: Does the effect of a crude price shock depend on the position of crude price cycle, i.e. is the effect of price shock larger/smaller in periods of already elevated crude price? And, does the effect of crude price shock depend on the position of the economy in the business cycle, i.e. does the crude price shock affect growth differentially in periods of low/high growth? Design/methodology/approach: The authors use a local linear projection (LLP) model to examine the asymmetric impact of crude price on GDP growth in an environment of high crude price. Next, a quantile regression model is used to account for differential impact on growth around high and low growth periods. Findings: Results from the LLP model show that when oil price is above $70, each additional percentage point of increase in oil price results in a 20 basis point (bps) drop in quarterly GDP growth rate on average. The impact is felt between the third and sixth quarters. When oil prices rise above $80, the impact is similar, with a sharper drop in growth (30 bps). The exercise with quantile regression shows that the impact of an increase in crude prices on growth is almost double at lowest quantiles of growth compared with the median. Originality/value: There is a growing literature that evaluates the impact of oil price in developing economies. However, nonlinearities in crude price-GDP growth dynamics have not received enough attention, especially during phases of elevated crude price or a growth downcycle. The authors believe that accounting for such effects is especially relevant in the present economic scenario of high oil prices because of geopolitical crises and a period of vulnerable growth because of supply chain issues arising out of the pandemic. Using recent data from oil-importing emerging market economies such as India, this paper fills a crucial gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper aims to analyse the impact of economic and governance factors on remittance inflows to India from the UK, USA and UAE. India is globally recognised as the largest recipient of remittances. Design/methodology/approach: Using a comprehensive time series data set spanning 1996 to 2022, the authors use an innovative non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model approach to examine the influence of economic growth, corruption control and employer availability in the three source countries on remittance inflows to India. Findings: The results indicate that in the UAE, changes in economic growth and corruption control directly affect remittance outflows. However, the presence of employers in the UAE has minimal impact on remittance outflows to India. Regarding the UK, fluctuations in economic growth primarily drive remittance outflows to India. The effect of corruption control and employment opportunities on remittance outflows is marginal. In the USA, economic growth does not notably impact remittance outflows, whereas corruption control and employment opportunities significantly influence the outflows to India. Originality/value: These findings have important implications for policymakers. Analysing macroeconomic factors from key remittance-sending nations offers valuable insights for Indian policymakers and their international counterparts to enhance remittance inflows. The study focuses on three countries that collectively contribute to about 50% of India's remittances, providing a unique contribution compared to the usual country-specific or regional focus in existing literature. Finally, leveraging these findings, NITI Aayog, an organisation dedicated to achieving India's sustainable development goals, can effectively monitor macroeconomic indicators related to significant remittance-sending countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach: This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings: The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to study the asset pricing implications for stock and bond markets in a long-run risks (LRR) model with regime shifts. This general equilibrium framework can not only generate sign-switching stock-bond correlations and bond risk premium, but also quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns. Design/methodology/approach: The researchers study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a LRR model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. Findings: The model shows that the term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while LRR play a more important role in accounting for high equity premium than do business cycle risks. Originality/value: This paper studies the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a Bansal and Yaron (2004) type of LRR framework. This rational expectations general equilibrium framework can (1) jointly match the dynamics of consumption, inflation and cash flow; (2) generate time-varying and sign-switching stock and bond correlations, as well as generating sign-switching bond risk premium; and (3) coherently explain another long list of salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach: A SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation. Findings: This paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. Originality/value: This research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: The model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term. Findings: Contrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt. Originality/value: Despite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pointing at the key role digital service innovation plays for the competitiveness of manufacturing firms, they suggest adding digital service innovation as a new type of technological innovation in manufacturing and integrating non-technological service innovations into existing types of marketing (product-service bundling) and organisational (contractual) innovations. Much of the managerial and scholarly attention builds on the premise that servitization, if successfully implemented, can allow firms to achieve (sustainable) growth and higher profitability as compared to their traditional, product-centric business models. Servitization has become one of the most active domains in service research, attracting interests from multiple disciplines, including marketing, operations, service management, engineering management, and strategy. Currently, as exemplified by the papers in this special issue, the servitization studies focus on digitally-enabled and data-driven offerings and business models, service development and innovation, inter-firm and intra-firm relationship dynamics, and performance implications. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption. Design/methodology/approach: Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability. Findings: The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%. Originality/value: The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Equity research in experimental psychology reveals investors' overreactions to bad news events. This study of asymmetric price structures in equity markets investigates whether such behavior predicts stock returns in an emerging market of India. Design/methodology/approach: The research decomposes Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex returns into Extremely Positive Returns (EPR) and Extremely Negative Returns (ENR) based on extreme values at first and then tests their lead–lag relations. Findings: The empirical finding is consistent with the existing evidence of asymmetric news effects on stock returns in India. In precise, ENR robustly predicts one-month-ahead EPR for the sample period from January 1991 to March 2020. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables. Practical implications: The paper explains the rationale of extreme value modeling in price forecasting. Investors can find additional utility gains from market cycle information while predicting extreme returns in Indian stock market. Originality/value: The paper is unique to understand business cycle effects in extreme return reversals in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm's access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm's capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: The change in firms' capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms' investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings: The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms' capital expenditure. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The labor market responds in a differentiated manner during recessions and expansions, and it is of vital importance to know the magnitude asymmetries. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effects of the disinflationary monetary policy (2005Q1–2022Q4) through the sacrifice rate measured in terms of unemployment and rate of critical labor conditions (RCLC) with nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NLARDL; Shin et al., 2014), which allows to efficiently estimate asymmetric effects in short and long terms in the presence of variables of different integration orders. Design/methodology/approach: The authors estimate an asymmetric accelerationist Phillips curve, augmented with labor precariousness for Mexico (2005Q1–2022Q4) following the NLARDL approach (Shin et al., 2014). Findings: The authors prove that the increase in the unemployment gap has greater disinflationary effects than the RCLC in both the short and the long term; the expansionary phases of the business cycle, which reduce UGap, do not have inflationary effects either in the short or in the long run, but improvements in the labor market do, when RCLC is reduced; raising RCLC appears to have been the companies' main survival strategy since 2015; and these asymmetries can generate a low unemployment trap with high and growing precariousness, with huge dynamic costs for well-being, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Social implications: As labor precariousness grows, the implications are several both in the short and long run. In the short run, the most notorious example of the effects on workers has to do with unstable and insecure situations, that disrupt all their life planning options, and health issues. Bohle et al. (2004) found in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries that casual employees had less desirable and predictable working hours, greater work–life conflict and more associated health complaints than people with permanent jobs. Originality/value: The approach includes the labor precariousness variable, which describes a new phenomenon in the labor market. Nowadays, workers are facing a new threat since firms are employing a new labor cost reduction strategy in which they do not lay off workers but rather paying them less, working them more hours, or reducing benefits. The asymmetries between the effects of precarity and unemployment can generate a poverty trap in the long run. This problem is, once again, of great relevance in the context of global high inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Furthermore, expatriation studies should also pay attention to how career experiences both abroad and during repatriation impact re-expatriation intentions and future global mobility, leading to long-term global careers ([46]). By doing so, the authors combine two previously separate theories, extend the application of career crafting to an international career context and emphasize the role of temporality and the whole-life view of career in SIEs' career-crafting approach. SCF views careers through three perspectives: the space within which the career takes place, the career actor and the time during which the career plays out. [Extracted from the article]

Purpose: This paper aims to explore and explain following a generational change, the latter generation in Chinese family firm is seen to apply different innovation strategies to thrive in a competitive environment. The Chandlerian perspective on management, marketing and manufacturing techniques (3Ms), derived from American business historian, Alfred Chandler has shown conclusively that one of a small yet established enterprises in Malaysia, London Biscuits Berhad (LBB) was able to capture a larger market by focusing on strategy and structure. This case study analytically and empirically describes the insights surrounding enterprise development among family small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach: By using the longitudinal way to compare the development of family business through time, the historical profiles that were obtained from Malaysia's companies commission house (Suruhanjaya Syarikat Malaysia) shows how organizational characteristic is often formulated by capitalizing tacit knowledge as a controlled input in the production process while promoting organization capabilities, as generations change. Secondly, findings from the interviews will show how the latter generation of this family firm innovates and adds value in product manufacturing by upgrading its quality, using resources and revitalizing the stages of business cycle. Findings: Findings show that enterprise development is influenced by objective setting during generational change. As time goes by, the next generations have a tendency of minimizing risk and maintaining harmony in the family enterprise. The next generation starts to recruit and retain professional staff while contributing innovative ideas toward the enterprise development, in comparison to the founding generation. The findings also show that diversification activities (manufacturing), improvement in domestic and international networking (marketing) and professional management adoption (management) can clearly be seen in the development of LBB. Practical implications: This case study traces how organizational and administrative characteristics of a firm are crucial if the enterprise is to capitalize on tacit knowledge and commercialize it through product development. It also clearly indicates that family enterprises may last several generations if the Chandlerian perspective on 3Ms is successfully transferred and practiced among family members. Originality/value: The selected case study focuses on the Chandlerian concept, which is the contribution of organization capabilities that foster strategic competition. This is done by investigating a successful enterprise run by a prominent Chinese family in Malaysia, which has gone through generational change. This paper proves that strategizing a family enterprise through the Chandlerian concept of 3Ms can transform a small business into a large and successful multinational enterprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of intellectual capital (IC) and its components (human, structural, relational and innovation capitals) on financial performance (FP) at different life cycle stages. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the data from Chinese manufacturing listed companies during 2014–2018. The modified value added intellectual coefficient (MVAIC) model is employed as the measurement of IC efficiency. Finally, multiple regression analysis is used to test the research hypotheses. Findings: This study shows that the impact of IC on FP is different across life cycle stages. Specifically, at the birth stage, human capital (HC), structural capital (SC) and innovation capital (INC) have a positive impact on FP. At the growth and mature stages, all IC components contribute to FP improvement. HC and SC play an important role at the revival stage, while only HC positively affects FP at the decline stage. Practical implications: The findings may help corporate managers to make optimal strategies to improve FP by effective utilization of IC resources in the complex and competitive business environment. Meanwhile, companies can invest in the core elements of IC at different stages of development, so as to maximize the contribution of IC to company value. Originality/value: This is among the few studies to explore the impact of IC on FP of manufacturing listed companies in the Chinese context from the perspective of life cycle. It also makes novel contributions in measuring IC by the MVAIC model with the inclusion of relational capital and INC that are largely neglected in previous research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to better understand if speculative activity is a factor or even the main factor in the run-up of oil prices in the spot market, particularly in the recent price bubble that occurred in the period from mid-2003 to 2008. Design/methodology/approach: The methodology used is based on an existing vector autoregressive model proposed by Kilian and Murphy (2014), which is a structural model of the global market for crude oil that accounts for flow demand and flow supply shocks and speculative demand oil shocks. Findings: From the output of the authors' structural model, the authors ruled out speculation as a factor of rising oil prices. The authors have found instead that the rapid oil demand caused by an unexpected increase in the global business cycle is the most accurate culprit. Despite the change of perspective in the speculative component, the authors' conclusions concur with the findings of Kilian and Murphy (2014) and others. Originality/value: As far as the authors are aware, this is the first time that a study has used as a spread oil variable, a speculative component of the real price, replacing the oil inventories considered by Kilian and Murphy (2014). Another contribution is that the model used allows estimating traditional oil demand elasticity in production and oil supply elasticity in spread movements, casting doubt on existing models with perfect price-inelastic output for crude oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affects corporate modern slavery accounting, auditing and accountability, and how a business can take advantage of this situation to ensure a more robust and effective modern slavery response in the long-term. Design/methodology/approach: Drawing on recent literature and available statistics about modern slavery in the context of COVID-19 comment is provided on the challenges and opportunities for researchers and business. Findings: Given the additional invisibility of modern slavery in a COVID-19 environment as victims move into unemployment and back into vulnerable positions where they are exploited the challenge is how accounting, auditing and accountability can help business break this cycle. Capabilities for business to track and trace victims of modern slavery will be reduced because of the pandemic. Opportunities exist for gathering data and building internal awareness about the problem of modern slavery in supply chains and to reassess operational risk and investment in modern slavery reduction. With the pause in external reporting opportunity exists to obtain views of external stakeholders. Research limitations/implications: Because of the relatively short period of the COVID-19 pandemic to date, numeric data on impacts are largely unavailable. Originality/value: This is the first paper to consider the challenges and opportunities of COVID-19 on accounting for modern slavery in business. Directions for future research are also considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach: A dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends. Findings: In case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation. Originality/value: The novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 1999 to December 2018. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts the wavelet multiple correlations and wavelet multiple cross-correlation (WMCC) based on the maximal overlap discrete transform estimator. This methodology simultaneously investigates how two or more time series variables move together continuously at both time and frequency domains. Findings: The empirical results show that business cycles comove with EPU for both intra- and inter-country analysis, with the long term showing the greatest degree of interdependence. In intra-country comparisons, EPU has a positive correlation with consumer price index and a negative correlation with share price index. According to the WMCC results, EPU does not have any leading or lagging power within each EME, but rather import has both lead and lag power. The inter-country WMCC results are all significant, with Korea's EPU leading/following all EMEs across all scales. Originality/value: This study contributes to the ongoing debate about what causes business cycles to comove by investigating business cycle indicators (leader/follower) using a robust wavelet methodology. The authors propose new variables that can clearly reflect the outcome of economic policy actions and translate information about EPU shocks. The inclusion of the variables has altered the understanding of the relationship between EPU and business cycle fluctuations. Policymakers also gain new insights into the trends and patterns of EPU and business cycles, which will help them formulate and implement fiscal and monetary policies more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Practicing flexible revenue management (RM) at hotels during Covid-19 is essential. The well-performed hotels ponder how to transform the target from revenue to net profits. This paper aims, first, to develop a value stream mapping (VSM) model for a productive RM based on six key drivers: organizational culture, demand forecasting, dynamic distribution channels, competition breakdown, dynamic and customized pricing and daily reviewing, and, second, to examine the nexus between RM and hotel's efficiency during Covid-19 using the wavelet analysis (WA) to visualize this relationship's time and frequency-based lead–lag dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: Using time-series data, a multiple case study of 31 luxury hotels in Egypt was applied based on semi-structured interviews and self-administered questionnaires. Findings: The first phase results showed that consensus toward the RM framework was achieved, regardless of current challenges, indicating that RM managers and scholars could use it. In Phase 2, the WA confirmed a positive correlation and significant influence between Covid-19 and RM practices at most business cycle frequencies. Furthermore, overall high causal relationships between RM practices and hotel efficiency were discovered in the short and medium terms and through different occurrence cycles. Though, the dynamic pricing in the long term was apart from this relationship. The causal effects between Covid-19 and hotel efficiency are not observable in the long-run spectra, indicating that resilience efforts with Covid-19 perhaps mitigated the impact. Research limitations/implications: Hotel managers could use the RM model developed from this study during the downturn to improve efficiency. The outcome may lead to the recovery of the hotel market and the whole economy. WA maps display possible directions for hotel managers to be more efficient based on the time and frequency domains. Originality/value: This study shows opportunities for RM implementation during Covid-19 based on the VSM and the WA approaches in hotels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to adopt a trading strategy using upside and downside beta estimates. Design/methodology/approach: With daily data from April 30, 1997 to April 30, 2021, the author utilizes the dual-beta model when estimating upside and downside betas, in constructing and rebalancing a portfolio from a buy list of Dow Jones Industrial Average component stocks. Benchmarks include the S&P 500 Total Return index, Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) and iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV). The dual-beta portfolio performance is assessed by economic cycles and by the Fama-French five-factor model. Findings: The dual-beta portfolio outperforms the benchmarks for the whole period under study as well as the majority of sub-periods. It is the only strategy with a statistically positive and economically significant risk-adjusted return. Originality/value: The author offers a simple stock trading strategy for generating wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth. Design/methodology/approach: This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods. Findings: The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock. Originality/value: This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study evaluates the Federal Reserve (Fed) initial and final forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983Q1-2018Q4. The Fed initial forecasts in a typical quarter are made in the first month (or immediately after), and the final forecasts are made in the third month of the quarter. The analysis also includes the private forecasts, which are made close to the end of the second month of the quarter. Design/methodology/approach: In evaluating the multi-period forecasts, the study tests for systematic bias, directional accuracy, symmetric loss, equal forecast accuracy, encompassing and orthogonality. For every test equation, it employs the Newey–West procedure in order to obtain the standard errors corrected for both heteroscedasticity and inherent serial correlation. Findings: Both Fed and private forecasts beat the naïve benchmark and predict directional change under symmetric loss. Fed final forecasts are more accurate than initial forecasts, meaning that predictive accuracy improves as more information becomes available. The private and Fed final forecasts contain distinct predictive information, but the latter produces significantly lower mean squared errors. The results are mixed when the study compares the private with the Fed initial forecasts. Additional results indicate that Fed (private) forecast errors are (are not) orthogonal to changes in consumer expectations about future unemployment. As such, consumer expectations can potentially help improve the accuracy of private forecasts. Originality/value: Unlike many other studies, this study focuses on the unemployment rate, since it is an important indicator of the social cost of business cycles, and thus its forecasts are of special interest to policymakers, politicians and social scientists. Accurate unemployment rate forecasts, in particular, are essential for policymakers to design an optimal macroeconomic policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the significance and impact of strategic knowledge management (SKM) practices and organisational change capacity (OCC) in improving strategic thinking and strategic orientation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their contribution in overall improvement of entrepreneurial performance. Design/methodology/approach: Quantitative research methodology using partial least square structural equation modelling with data of 296 sample from the target group as managers and owners from various SMEs in the UK has been used in the study. Findings: The findings suggest that SMEs that invest in SKM and OCC are more proficient at adjusting to fluctuations in the business landscape and develop effective strategies that lead to improved entrepreneurial performance. The study provides evidence that SKM encompasses more than just the acquisition and use of information. It also involves the establishment of a learning and innovation culture that facilitates strategic thinking and direction. Similarly, OCC is not just about implementing change but also about developing the agility and flexibility to adapt to market changes, consumer demands and technology. Practical implications: According to the research, SMEs may boost their entrepreneurial performance and keep a competitive advantage in the modern, dynamic business environment by investing in SKM and OCC. The capacity of SMEs to implement SKM and organisational change should be encouraged and supported by policymakers and practitioners, who should also offer the necessary tools and assistance to do so. Originality/value: This study offers a valuable addition to the previously published works on SKM and OCC within SMEs. It offers empirical data that highlights the significance of SKM and OCC in fostering strategic thinking, strategic orientation and ultimately, boosting entrepreneurial performance. The study also highlights the challenges faced by SMEs in implementing SKM and OCC and provides recommendations for overcoming these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound, Johansen co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) causality tests. Political developments, pandemics, conflicts between countries, trade chains and general economic and financial problems that have frequently occurred worldwide in recent years have significantly affected the Turkish economy as well as all other countries. Türkiye's economy is intricately linked with global financial markets, and understanding the dynamics between domestic macroeconomic variables and external financial indicators can provide insights into the country's economic resilience and vulnerabilities to external shocks. Design/methodology/approach: Two distinct models are used in the analysis, with the Borsa Istanbul 100 (BIST100) Index and the Real Sector Confidence (RSC) Index serving as the dependent variables. This study examines the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the ARDL bound, Johansen cointegration and VECM causality tests. The study uses monthly data spanning from December 31, 2002, to July 29, 2022, offering a comprehensive perspective on the dynamics of the Turkish economy. Findings: The findings reveal significant long-run relationships between the BIST100 and the exchange rate, imports and exports. Short-run dynamics indicate the importance of changes in these variables, as well as NPLs and RSC, in affecting the BIST 100. The model captures the impact of economic indicators such as imports, NPLs and exports on RSC. In addition, it underscores a long-run equilibrium relationship, suggesting a responsive RSC to deviations. There is a strong positive relationship between BIST100 and the RSC. Causality tests reveal temporal relationships and causal links, with evidence of bidirectional causality for some variables, providing comprehensive insights into the short-term dynamics and adjustment mechanisms influencing RSC in the Turkish economic context. Practical implications: Amidst global economic uncertainties and fluctuations, particularly in emerging markets such as Türkiye, understanding the relationships between financial market indicators and macroeconomic variables may help policymakers formulate effective monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, promoting sustainable growth and mitigating financial risks. In addition, these insights have practical implications for investors, regulators and other financial market participants seeking to make informed decisions in an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy. Originality/value: This study uniquely examines a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial indicators specific to Türkiye, including both traditional and nontraditional factors. This study also offers unprecedented insights into the unique characteristics and dynamics of the Turkish economy and provides valuable insights for businesses, investors and policymakers to consider Türkiye's economic environment more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine whether participating informality is attributed to income shocks such as wage arrears, unexpected wage cuts or compulsory unpaid leaves. The current research uses Russia longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2002–2015. Design/methodology/approach: Using formal jobs as the base category, the authors conducted pooled multinomial logit regressions allowing for the two additional employment statuses: workers without contracts and unincorporated business workers. Findings: The overall results mainly suggest that no effects occur. In other words, unexpected negative income shocks are not the main driving force of informality. Although the majority of previous studies are based on survey questions on unexpected income shock which has sample selection bias, to obtain robustness, the current study used Russian minimum wage reforms as income shocks. This research shows that Russian minimum wage reform does not affect the decision of informality in the labor market. Research limitations/implications: Given the data limitations, the authors only observed and examined the supply-side of the labor market. Tax-evading motives would be the main reason for informality; to ensure this conjecture, however, demand and supply sides need to be simultaneously examined which is beyond the scope of this study. Originality/value: In contrast to a large number of studies on cross-sectional differences in determinants of informal job holding, emphasis on the effects of income shocks on informal employment across business cycles has been minimal. The current study focuses on the business cycles because trends of informal employment can be interpreted differently regardless of whether in an economic boom or recession. Russia, as a unique natural experiment, provides us to examine informal job holdings over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: As digital technologies expand access to new forms of legalized gambling, including sports betting and online gaming, it is important to assess the impact of macroeconomic and equity market outcomes on fund flows into gambling. The authors' findings will be of interest to policymakers and the gambling industry, as various forms of gambling, including day trading, gain broad public acceptance. Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine the impact of macroeconomic forces, business cycles, and financial market wealth on gambling. The authors propose a nonlinear model linking aggregate gambling expenditures to macroeconomic, stock market, and gambling industry variables. The authors estimate the proposed model using nonlinear estimation procedures. Findings: The authors find that price of wagering, incomes, and supply of gambling opportunities are the primary determinants of wagering demand. Aggregate wagering is negatively impacted by realized stock returns and market volatility, but rises during recessions. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the questions posed and addressed in this manuscript have not been addressed in prior literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Do women contribute to performance of companies on which they serve as board of directors? Many prior studies examine this issue, but no consensus is reached on the benefits of women taking on leadership positions. The present study considers this thorny issue from a slightly different perspective. Does the association between gender diversity and business performance vary across sectors and economic cycles? Design/methodology/approach: The sample for this study was derived from the firms included in the S&P Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 300 Index, and the study period of 2004–2016 allowed authors to consider the effects of different sectors as well as different economic cycles on the relationship between gender diversity of boards and business performance. The authors consider the Australian context, which is somewhat unique from the other Western countries, as quotas on boards of directors are not made mandatory and the corporate governance practices are principle-based rather than rule-based. Findings: Employing panel data models, at the aggregate level, the authors find no evidence of board gender diversity impacting business performance. Consideration of sectoral differences and economic cycles in the empirical analyses yielded additional insights. In particular, gender diversity has a beneficial association with performance for businesses in the services and financial sectors after the changes to corporate governance guidelines relating to diversity in 2010. These economic benefits, however, are not evidenced in the resources sector. Research limitations/implications: These findings offer support for critical mass and resource dependence theories. Practical implications: The findings of this study have implications for inclusion and diversity policies of businesses and the society. Specifically, the findings offer support for gender diversity of corporate boards of directors. Originality/value: This study highlights that women bring their unique skills and experiences to create economic value in sectors where they traditionally have more experience and opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors analyse a growth model to explain how economic fluctuations are primarily driven by productive capacities (i.e. capacity utilization driven by innovations and know-how) and productive inefficiencies. Design/methodology/approach: This study's methodology consists of the combination of the economic growth model, à la Solow–Swan, with a sigmoidal production function (in capital), which may explain growth, poverty traps or fluctuations depending on the relative levels of inefficiencies, productive capacities or lack of know-how. Findings: The authors show that economies may experience economic growth, poverty traps and/or fluctuations (i.e. cycles). Economic growth is reached when an economy experiences both a low level of inefficiencies and a high level of productive capacities while an economy falls into a poverty trap when there is a high level of inefficiencies in production. Instead, the economy gets in cycles when there is a large level of the lack of know-how and low levels of productive capacity. Originality/value: The authors conclude that more capital per capita (greater savings and investment) and greater productive capacity (with less lack of know-how) are the economic policy keys for an economy being on the path of sustained economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explain the mixed results to changes in the DJIA index documented in the literature. The authors show that economic cycles, especially recessionary periods, explain the difference in findings. Design/methodology/approach: The authors examine changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1929 to 2019 to evaluate immediate and long-term market reactions after a component change. Using multiple event-study methodologies, the authors examine the full era, the pre- and post-exchange traded fund (ETF) windows and economic cycles using both pre and post-estimation windows. Findings: In aggregate, DJIA additions do not present an increase in wealth; however, wealth effects are positive during expansions and negative during recessions. Deletions have a negative wealth effect. The authors find weak evidence of an indexing effect. Additions are positive post-1998, and deletions remain negative regardless of era. In the long run, firms added to the DJIA have positive abnormal returns in the second year after inclusion. Deletions in recessionary times have negative returns three years after removal, a signal of longer-term wealth decline for these firms. Research limitations/implications: The DJIA changes periodically to better represent industries relevant to the blue-chip market, and the findings have implications for fund managers and active investors. Practical implications: The DJIA changes periodically to better represent industries relevant to the blue-chip market, and the findings have implications for fund managers and active investors. Originality/value: Prior literature presents limited time series of data points and mixed results and implications. The authors find that the economic cycle is a driving factor that supports predicted signs and amounts of wealth change. Furthermore, the authors see limited ETF impact on DJIA changes and some impact of the choice of estimation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to understand which factors determine the corporate performance of Portuguese and Spanish listed companies between 2011 and 2018, also considering the sub-period marked by the presence of the Troika in Portugal, between 2011 and 2014. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this aim, panel data methodology was used, specifically the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) for 110 non-financial companies from the Iberian Peninsula. Findings: The results point out different signs and significance of the variables in the companies of the two countries. Regarding the sub-period, our results suggest that the intervention of the Troika in Portugal acted in a very different way from the neighboring country. Originality/value: This research shows the importance of studying countries individually, even with small dimensions, to reinforce the path that is still necessary for more sustainable companies. Furthermore, when companies have strong governance structures, the harmful contagion from one neighboring country to another may not happen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the impact of trade and financial integration on business cycle synchronization. The author differs by focusing on the real effective exchange rate as the target variable in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region. In particular, the author investigates synchronization by analyzing the short- and long-run dynamics of the real effective exchange rates of Canada, Mexico and the US for 2008–2019. Design/methodology/approach: The author first employs stationarity and cointegration tests to specify and estimate the long-run equilibrium relation between the real effective exchange rates of Canada, Mexico and the US. The author then specifies and estimates an error-correction model for each real effective exchange rate in order to investigate whether the adjustment in eliminating disequilibrium is asymmetric. Findings: The results indicate that the real effective exchange rates of Canada, Mexico and the US are cointegrated with only one long-run equilibrium relation. Canada's real effective exchange rate responds symmetrically to eliminate both negative and positive disequilibrium with a similar speed of adjustment. However, the response of Mexico's real effective exchange rate is asymmetric, as it responds to eliminate only positive disequilibrium. The US real effective exchange rate does not respond to disequilibrium, perhaps because it has a large economy with much stronger competition beyond the NAFTA region than both Canada and Mexico. Originality/value: This is the first study that investigates real effective exchange rate synchronization in the NAFTA region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Environmental regulation is in a continuous state of intense change and modification amid the long-term tensions between environmental protection and economic growth. In this article, the authors creatively investigate how fluctuations of environmental regulation influence a nation's economic growth while also examining the mediating effect of technological innovation. Design/methodology/approach: Using sample data of 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 2013 to 2018, environmental regulation is differentiated in two aspects of formal environmental regulation (FER) and informal environmental regulation (IER) and analyzed to assess the effects of regulatory fluctuations on investment and technological innovation. Findings: The research results demonstrate that both FER fluctuation and IER fluctuation exert a significant negative impact on economic growth. These two fluctuations in environmental regulation increase uncertainty and unpredictable risks for corporations and investors, significantly stifling the willingness to contribute to innovation activities and leading to a diminished level of innovation. Technological innovation is revealed to have a mediating influence on the relationship of environmental regulation fluctuation to economic growth. Originality/value: These findings enrich the research on the impact of environmental regulation from a dynamic, multinational perspective, contributing to the literature by exploring the relationships between environmental regulation fluctuation, technological innovation and economic growth at the OECD-country level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to find out if corporate real estate ownership is priced into the capital market performance of non-property companies in the UK. This is of particular interest because ownership still represents a significant weight on the balance sheets and is predominantly considered unfavourable due to its bulkiness and difficult revisability in the event of changes in space demand. This draws attention to the UK as one of the most important European economies that have been exposed to strong uncertainties and dynamics, for example, due to the withdrawal voting of the United Kingdom from the European Union (BREXIT). Design/methodology/approach: A first look at the real estate assets reported in balance sheets provides insight into possible changes in ownership strategy. This serves as a basis for subdividing companies based on their real estate assets using a portfolio-based approach and that are then analysed using the Fama and French multi-factor model with regard to their influence on capital market returns. Findings: In general, the share of real estate assets has fallen over the past 10 years, although coinciding with BREXIT voting, some industries such as manufacturing show a turnaround. At the same time, ownership is priced in as a factor on the capital market, which applies to a sample across industries, as well as to separately considered sectors in the manufacturing and service industries. The pricing also shows a counter-cyclical pattern. Practical implications: Corporate real estate management should be aware of the negative influence of ownership, especially against the background of economic fluctuations. The reduction of ownership can reduce the associated cost of capital and increase company success. Originality/value: Previous UK-related studies mostly refer to a period before the global economic crisis in 2008, and therefore, are too old to reflect a changed view on corporate real estate ownership because of new corporate environmental conditions, based on inaccurate proxies or mainly refer to the retail segment. This research gap is closed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigates whether the integration between working capital management (WCM) and the structure of a firm's board of directors impacts its Tobin's q ratio. The sample set consists of 319 Thai listed firms with 3,190 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: The two-step generalized method of moments (two-step GMM) model is employed to address endogeneity. Findings: The empirical results show that having both (1) a high level of net working capital holdings, a long period of net trade cycles or using an aggressive policy in working capital investment and (2) a more diverse board of directors decrease a firm's Tobin's q ratio. Conversely, when a firm's managers employ an aggressive policy for their working capital financing and the board structure of their firms is highly diverse, the firm's Tobin's q ratio increases. This indicates the appropriateness of some WCM policies is dependent on the characteristics of a firm's board of directors. Thus, the different integration between WCM and board structure may elicit dissimilar outcomes for a firm's Tobin's q ratio. Originality/value: To their knowledge, the authors are the first to investigate the influence of the integration between WCM and board characteristics on Tobin's q ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]