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Fire activity in 288 areas (2.5° N × 10° E) in the Arctic region (50°–70° N, 0°–360° E) was analyzed using about 4.4 million satellite hotspot (HS) data from 2002 to 2021. A total of 21 high fire density areas from eastern Europe to western Canada were selected, and their fire–weather conditions during each active fire period were analyzed using about 1820 various weather maps at the upper and the lower air level. Analysis results showed that the active fires in the Arctic region occurred under the fire–weather conditions associated with the northward movement of cut-off high (COH) and warm air masses detached from the south caused by large westerly meandering (LWM). LWM is a sign of the beginning of an active fire period. Very active fires on HS peak days occurred several days after the start of the northward movement of COHs and under mainly high-pressure conditions in the upper air and strong wind conditions in the lower air. The time lag of these several days suggests that we may be prepared for very active fires. The fire–weather analysis approach described in this paper has shown that future large-scale fire outbreaks are predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Storm surges and waves are key climate-driven parameters affecting the design and operation of ports and other infrastructure on the coast. Reliable predictions of future storm surges and waves are not yet available for the west coast of Canada, and this data gap hinders effective climate risk assessment, planning and adaptation. This paper presents numerical simulations of storm surges and waves in British Columbia coastal waters under a future climate (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (RCP8.5). The numerical models were first forced by wind and surface pressure fields from the ERA-5 global reanalysis, and calibrated and validated using historical wave and water level records. The models were then driven by atmospheric data from four regional climate models (RCMs) to investigate potential changes in the frequency and magnitude of storm surges and extreme waves over the 21st century. The model outputs were analyzed to determine the potential impacts of climate change on storm surges and wave effects at key ports and transportation assets in western Canada. The study is the first of its kind to utilize unstructured, computational models to simulate storm surges and waves for the entire western Canada coastal region, while maintaining the high spatial resolution in coastal sub-basins needed to capture local dynamic responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]