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Background: Surgical waiting lists have risen dramatically across the UK as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The effective use of operating theatres by optimal scheduling could help mitigate this, but this requires accurate case duration predictions. Current standards for predicting the duration of surgery are inaccurate. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers the potential for greater accuracy in predicting surgical case duration. This study aimed to investigate whether there is evidence to support that AI is more accurate than current industry standards at predicting surgical case duration, with a secondary aim of analysing whether the implementation of the models used produced efficiency savings. Method: PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE libraries were searched through to July 2023 to identify appropriate articles. PRISMA extension for scoping reviews and the Arksey and O'Malley framework were followed. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the reporting guidelines for surgical AI papers by Farrow et al. Algorithm performance was reported using evaluation metrics. Results: The search identified 2593 articles: 14 were suitable for inclusion and 13 reported on the accuracy of AI algorithms against industry standards, with seven demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in prediction accuracy (P < 0.05). The larger studies demonstrated the superiority of neural networks over other machine learning techniques. Efficiency savings were identified in a RCT. Significant methodological limitations were identified across most studies. Conclusion: The studies suggest that machine learning and deep learning models are more accurate at predicting the duration of surgery; however, further research is required to determine the best way to implement this technology. Waiting lists for elective surgeries are rising in the UK. We conducted a scoping review with the aim to understand if artificial intelligence has the potential to improve the utilization of operating theatre resources through improved scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a significant causal impact on new cases, accelerating the subsequent second COVID-19 wave. The scheme subsidised 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays–Wednesdays from 3–31 August 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both a notable increase in new COVID-19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting and a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Similarly, areas that exhibited notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on the days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence—a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data—and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background COVID-19 brought additional challenges to Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) decision-making, which was already a contentious issue. In the UK, reports of poor DNACPR decision-making and communication emerged in 2020, including from the regulator, the Care Quality Commission. This paper explores the experiences of people who discussed DNACPR with a healthcare professional on behalf of a relative during the coronavirus pandemic, with the aim of identifying areas of good practice and what needs to be improved. Methods a total of 39 people participated in semi-structured interviews via video conferencing software or telephone. Data were evaluated using Framework Analysis. Findings results are presented around three main themes: understanding, communication and impact. Participants' understanding about DNACPR was important, as those with better understanding tended to reflect more positively on their discussions with clinicians. The role of relatives in the decision-making process was a frequent source of misunderstanding. Healthcare professionals' communication skills were important. Where discussions went well, relatives were given clear explanations and the opportunity to ask questions. However many relatives felt that conversations were rushed. DNACPR discussions can have a lasting impact—relatives reported them to be significant moments in care journeys. Many relatives perceived that they were asked to decide whether their relative should receive CPR and described enduring emotional consequences, including guilt. Conclusion the pandemic has illuminated deficiencies in current practice around DNACPR discussion, which can have difficult to anticipate and lasting negative consequences for relatives. This research raises questions about the current approach to DNACPR decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few decades, a small but growing group of people have worked remotely from their homes. With the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of people found themselves joining this group overnight. In this position paper, we examine the kinds of work that 'went remote' in response to the pandemic, and consider the ways in which this transition was influenced by (and in turn came to influence) contemporary trends in digital workplace measurement and evaluation. We see that employers appeared reluctant to let certain classes of employee work remotely. When the pandemic forced staff home, employers compensated by turning to digital surveillance tools, even though, as we argue, these tools seem unable to overcome the significant conceptual barriers to understanding how people are working. We also observed that, in the United Kingdom context, the pandemic didn't mean remote work for a significant proportion of the population. We assert that, to maximize its impact, 'future of work' research in human-centred computing must be more inclusive and representative of work, rather than focusing on the experiences of knowledge workers and those involved in new forms of work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input–output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers' exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent Covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning is an increasingly key influence on the financial services industry. In this paper, we review the roles and impact of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) on the UK financial services industry. We survey the current AI/ML landscape in the UK. ML has had a considerable impact in the areas of fraud and compliance, credit scoring, financial distress prediction, robo-advising and algorithmic trading. We examine these applications using UK examples. We also review the importance of regulation and governance in ML applications to financial services. Finally, we assess the performance of ML during the Covid-19 pandemic and conclude with directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the first wave of COVID-19, the UK Government relied heavily on digital channels to provide information to the public. This disproportionately excluded older people - one of the groups with least access to (or experience of) using the internet. Approximately 11.5 million people in the UK lack digital skills and 4.8 million people never go online, with around half (51%) of these being aged over 65. The Greater Manchester (GM) response was to work collaboratively with a number of key Ageing groups to develop Keeping Well at Home, a booklet providing evidence based health and wellbeing information and advice for older people during COVID-19 restrictions. Methods: An evaluation of the booklet was undertaken during summer 2020 by the Healthy Ageing team at the Applied Research Collaboration GM. As national restrictions on movement remained in place at the time, a postal questionnaire was distributed to a sample of older adults in GM. Results: Nearly 500 questionnaires were returned. The response was overwhelmingly positive; 92% found the information helpful; 90% agreed the booklet would help older people stay healthy during lockdown; 74% had used the home exercises section; 78% found the tips for keeping their mind well helpful. Around 50% of respondents did not have internet access. Paper based resources was the preferred choice for 92% of respondents with only 6% opting for digital versions. Conclusions: The evidence from the evaluation challenges the growing trend towards communicating just through digital channels, and emphasises the need for tailored paper-based materials for older adults. The Keeping Well at Home booklet also shows the value of working with older adults to ensure the content and design are inviting to readers. Information, support and services must be made available in an offline equivalent and proactively disseminated to reach those who otherwise would not have access to it. Key messages: Print-based communications are preferred over digital for some groups; ensuring inclusivity is critical as the ‘digital by default’ approach excludes large numbers of our population. Including target group representatives as co-editors to advise on content and stylistic design is key to ensure content is relevant and useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How have differently institutionalized welfare regimes dealt with the Covid-19 crisis? In particular, how have they confronted the social and economic inequalities exposed by the virus? Taking three European countries--Germany, Sweden, and the UK, corresponding broadly to conservative-continental, social democratic, and liberal regime types--this paper tracks the virus response in the areas of income and employment protection and health and residential care. With attention paid to issues of "capacity" and the institutional arrangements in each case, we find that institutional histories in Germany and Sweden permitted a certain recidivistic reliance on established practices in the areas of employment and social protection. In sum, certain social and economic inequalities were mitigated as these countries set aside recent trends toward "liberalization" and mobilized longer-standing institutional capacities to protect some groups, although by no means all. Evidence of this trend is less clear in the health and residential care sectors, where Germany had existing capacity, allowing its older population to weather the crisis in better order than its counterparts in Sweden and the UK. In the UK, welfare liberalization has led to increased social and economic inequalities and funding reductions in health and residential care--all of which have reduced the country's ability to deal with severe crisis. The Covid response in this case was agile, but also chaotic, with little being done to ameliorate the positions of the most vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I review trends in migration to the UK since the Brexit referendum, examining first the sharp fall in net migration from the EU that resulted, and then the recent more dramatic exodus of foreign-born residents during the covid-19 pandemic. I describe the new post-Brexit system, and review studies which attempt to estimate both the impact on future migration flows and on GDP and GDP per capita. Finally, I discuss the wider economic impact of the new system and some of the policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To examine trends in public awareness and knowledge of drinking guidelines in the UK since their revision in 2016, which had moved from a daily to a weekly guideline, made the guideline the same for men and women, and reduced the guideline for men by around one-third. Method Data were from a representative, repeat cross-sectional survey. We analysed changes in awareness and knowledge of drinking guidelines among 8168 adult drinkers between 2016 and 2022 and associations with sociodemographic characteristics, smoking status and level of alcohol consumption. Results The proportion of drinkers aware of guidelines declined from 86.0% (95%CI 84.0–88.0%) in 2016 to 81.7% (79.5–84.0%) in 2019, then increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 91.6% (90.1–93.1%) in 2020. The proportion who correctly identified the guideline as a maximum of exactly 14 units/week remained at around a quarter from 2016 (25.0%, 22.4–27.5%) to 2018 (25.8%, 23.2–28.3%), whereas the proportion who gave a figure of 14 units or fewer rose from 52.1 (49.2–55.0%) to 57.4% (54.6–60.3%). However, by 2022, guideline knowledge had worsened significantly, with these figures falling to 19.7 (17.4–21.9%) and 46.5% (43.6–49.4%), respectively. Changes over time were similar across subgroups. Odds of guideline awareness and knowledge were higher among drinkers who were aged ≥35, female, more educated and from more advantaged social grades. Conclusions The majority of adult drinkers in the UK are aware of low-risk drinking guidelines. However, 6 years since their announcement, knowledge of the revised drinking guidelines remains poor. Less than a quarter know the recommended weekly limit and only around half think it is 14 units or less. Inequalities have persisted over time, such that disadvantaged groups remain less likely to know the guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Public Health registrars (SpRs) were an important component of the workforce that contributed to the COVID-19 response. This study explores their contribution and the impact the early stages of the pandemic had on their learning and training. Methods Data were collected from SpRs in the London and Kent, Surrey, Sussex training programme between July and September 2020 through a mixture of questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. A thematic analysis of interview transcripts was undertaken to identify themes. Results 35/128 SpRs responded to the survey and 11 were interviewed. SpRs were placed across a range of organizations and made a significant contribution to the COVID-19 response. Overall, SpRs learned important skills but working on the response may for some have impacted negatively on training. A number of facilitators and barriers to learning were identified. Conclusion The study findings highlight the opportunities for learning created by the pandemic. However, changing projects and the desire of SpRs to contribute to the response meant the impacts on training were mixed. Future deployment of SpRs should consider the balance of responsibility and pace when delegating work, as well as the need to supervise effectively and support remote working to maintain good mental wellbeing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In response to COVID-19 there have been lockdowns and restrictions to hospitality services. Drinking behaviours often change in response to traumatic events and changes in the drinking environment, and this is influenced by a range of factors. This study explores self-reported changes in alcohol consumption in the third month of the UK lockdown, associations with socio-demographics factors and with COVID-19-related concerns, and mental health and wellbeing. Methods The COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study was a longitudinal, online, three-wave survey of 1958 UK adults. Data were collected during the first UK lockdown; wave 1 launched 23 March 2020, wave 2 was 1 month after and wave 3 2 months after completion of wave 1A hierarchical multinomial regression model was estimated to investigate factors associated with changes in perceived alcohol consumption in the third month of the lockdown. Results The majority of participants reported changes in drinking (62%) with over one-third indicating increased consumption. Student status and worries about the financial implications of COVID-19 were associated with lower odds of decreased alcohol consumption. Those with above average income and those with children in the household had lower odds of increased alcohol consumption, while younger adults had higher odds of increased alcohol consumption. Conclusions This study adds to the growing body of research showing changes in alcohol consumption behaviours during the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, and identifies risk and protective factors which can aid in targeting intervention at those most in need of support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background COVID-19 lockdown measures may have led to more, and increasingly severe, domestic abuse. This study examines police referrals to a specialist domestic abuse service in Wales, UK before and during the first lockdown. Methods Routine data relating to 2292 police referrals for female adult victim-survivors from December 2019 until July 2020 were analysed and presented in the form of descriptive statistics to monitor changes in referral rates and the profile of those referrals. Results There was little increase in the overall volume of police referrals during lockdown, but the proportion assessed as high risk increased, and children became the primary source of third-party referrals, with a higher proportion of reports made by other third parties as restrictions eased. Police reports for cases of Child/Adolescent to Parent Violence (C/APV) occurred almost exclusively during lockdown. Conclusions The increase in risk level despite less clear increase in volume may suggest unmet need, with victims less likely to seek help during lockdown other than for more severe instances. Increased reports by children suggest increased exposure of children to domestic abuse during school closure. Unmet need for women and children may have been made visible to services, and acquaintances, as measures began to ease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background defining features of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries were the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected and the difficulty in preventing the introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the start of the pandemic, prior to widespread testing, was the transfer of patients from hospitals that were experiencing high levels of nosocomial events. Methods we tested the hypothesis that hospital discharge events increased the intensity of care home cases using a national individually linked health record cohort in Wales, UK. We monitored 186,772 hospital discharge events over the period from March to July 2020, tracking individuals to 923 care homes and recording the daily case rate in the homes populated by 15,772 residents. We estimated the risk of an increase in case rates following exposure to a hospital discharge using multi-level hierarchical logistic regression and a novel stochastic Hawkes process outbreak model. Findings in regression analysis, after adjusting for care home size, we found no significant association between hospital discharge and subsequent increases in care home case numbers (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.82, 1.90). Risk factors for increased cases included care home size, care home resident density and provision of nursing care. Using our outbreak model, we found a significant effect of hospital discharge on the subsequent intensity of cases. However, the effect was small and considerably less than the effect of care home size, suggesting the highest risk of introduction came from interaction with the community. We estimated that approximately 1.8% of hospital discharged patients may have been infected. Interpretation there is growing evidence in the UK that the risk of transfer of COVID-19 from the high-risk hospital setting to the high-risk care home setting during the early stages of the pandemic was relatively small. Although access to testing was limited to initial symptomatic cases in each care home at this time, our results suggest that reduced numbers of discharges, selection of patients and action taken within care homes following transfer all may have contributed to the mitigation. The precise key transmission routes from the community remain to be quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Knife-related violence is of growing concern in the UK. This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of penetrating injuries at a UK major trauma centre. Methods This was a retrospective study comparing the number of patients attending the emergency department of King's College Hospital (KCH) with a penetrating injury (gunshot or stab wound) during the 'pandemic year' (1 March 2020–28 February 2021) compared with the equivalent time period in the previous year. Penetrating injuries as a result of self-harm were excluded. The primary outcome was to assess whether there were any changes to the frequency of presentations during three periods of national lockdowns. Results Lockdown 1 showed a 48.45% reduction in presentations in the 'pandemic year' compared to the previous year, lockdown 2 showed a 31.25% reduction; however, lockdown 3 showed an 8.89% increase in the number of presentations. Conclusion Our findings suggest that despite the initial reduction in the number of presentations of penetrating injury during lockdown 1, this returned to normal levels by lockdown 3. Further research is required to understand the effects of government-imposed restrictions on interpersonal violence and identify appropriate methods of outreach prevention during a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this brief communication, we discuss the confusion of mortality with fatality in the interpretation of evidence in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how this confusion affects the translation of science into policy and practice. We discuss how this confusion has influenced COVID-19 policy in France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom and discuss the implications for decision-making about COVID-19 vaccine distribution. We also discuss how this confusion is an example of a more general statistical fallacy we term the "Missing Link Fallacy." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Care homes have been severely affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Rapid antigen testing could identify most SARS-CoV-2 infected staff and visitors before they enter homes. We explored implementation of staff and visitor testing protocols using lateral flow devices (LFDs). Methods An evaluation of a SARS-CoV-2 LFD-based testing protocol in 11 care homes in Liverpool, UK, including staff and visitor testing, plus a qualitative exploratory study in nine of these homes. The proportion of pilot homes with outbreaks, and outbreak size, were compared to non-pilot homes in Liverpool. Adherence to testing protocols was evaluated. Fifteen staff were interviewed, and transcript data were thematically coded using an iterative analysis to identify and categorize factors influencing testing implementation. Results In total, 1,638 LFD rapid tests were performed on 407 staff. Protocol adherence was poor with 8.6% of staff achieving >75% protocol adherence, and 25.3% achieving |$\ge$| 50%. Six care homes had outbreaks during the study. Compared to non-pilot care homes, there was no evidence of significant difference in the proportion of homes with outbreaks, or the size of outbreaks. Qualitative data showed difficulty implementing testing strategies due to excessive work burden. Factors influencing adherence related to test integration and procedural factors, socio-economic factors, cognitive overload and the emotional value of testing. Conclusion Implementation of staff and visitor care home LFD testing protocols was poorly adhered to and consequently did not reduce the number or scale of COVID-19 outbreaks. More focus is needed on the contextual and behavioural factors that influence protocol adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background informal carers provide the majority of the support for persons with dementia living at home. Restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 have had a profound impact on the daily life of the entire population. This study provides insight into the impact of these restrictions on carers of people with dementia living at home. Design qualitative semi-structured interviews. Participants purposive sample of carers who provide at least 10 hours of care a week for the person with dementia living at home. Setting UK. Results twenty-three carers were interviewed, and thematic analysis identified three main themes—Changes to daily life, impact on carer health and wellbeing and reduced support from health and social support networks. The results highlight the impact of restrictions imposed on daily life and routines due to the pandemic, wellbeing of carers, reduced social support, lack of access to health and care professionals and respite for carers. The restrictions have had negative consequences on carers' wellbeing, and they have experienced difficulties in accessing formal care services and respite care. Conclusion carers attempt to continue to provide physical, emotional and practical support for persons with dementia in the community throughout the COVID-19 restrictions. To prevent a future carer crisis, carers need better support systems including formal carer services, telecare solutions that work for them and additional support for respite, as the restrictions from this pandemic continue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a greater impact on people with disabilities than non-disabled people. Our aim was to compare the short-term impact of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on the employment and financial security of working age adults with and without disabilities in the UK. Methods Secondary analysis of data collected in Wave 9 and the special April, May and June COVID-19 monthly surveys of 'Understanding Society', the UK's main annual household panel study. Results During the first 3 months of the introduction of the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK, respondents with disability were more likely than their peers to be working reduced hours and experience higher levels of financial stress. These differences were attenuated, but not eliminated, when estimates were adjusted to take account of pre-lockdown financial status. Conclusions Working age adults with disability were particularly disadvantaged by the financial impact of the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has stated the need for a disability-inclusive COVID-19 government response. The results of our analysis suggest that these pleas have either not been heeded, or if measures have been implemented, they have so far been ineffectual in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a greater impact on people with disabilities than non-disabled people. Our aim was to compare the short-term impact of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and first lockdown on the employment and financial security of working age adults with and without disabilities in the UK. Methods Secondary analysis of data collected in Wave 9 and the special April, May and June COVID-19 monthly surveys of 'Understanding Society', the UK's main annual household panel study. Results During the first 3 months of the introduction of the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK, respondents with disability were more likely than their peers to be working reduced hours and experience higher levels of financial stress. These differences were attenuated, but not eliminated, when estimates were adjusted to take account of pre-lockdown financial status. Conclusions Working age adults with disability were particularly disadvantaged by the financial impact of the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has stated the need for a disability-inclusive COVID-19 government response. The results of our analysis suggest that these pleas have either not been heeded, or if measures have been implemented, they have so far been ineffectual in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background epidemiological data on COVID-19 infection in care homes are scarce. We analysed data from a large provider of long-term care for older people to investigate infection and mortality during the first wave of the pandemic. Methods cohort study of 179 UK care homes with 9,339 residents and 11,604 staff. We used manager-reported daily tallies to estimate the incidence of suspected and confirmed infection and mortality in staff and residents. Individual-level electronic health records from 8,713 residents were used to model risk factors for confirmed infection, mortality and estimate attributable mortality. Results 2,075/9,339 residents developed COVID-19 symptoms (22.2% [95% confidence interval: 21.4%; 23.1%]), while 951 residents (10.2% [9.6%; 10.8%]) and 585 staff (5.0% [4.7%; 5.5%]) had laboratory-confirmed infections. The incidence of confirmed infection was 152.6 [143.1; 162.6] and 62.3 [57.3; 67.5] per 100,000 person-days in residents and staff, respectively. Sixty-eight percent (121/179) of care homes had at least one COVID-19 infection or COVID-19-related death. Lower staffing ratios and higher occupancy rates were independent risk factors for infection. Out of 607 residents with confirmed infection, 217 died (case fatality rate: 35.7% [31.9%; 39.7%]). Mortality in residents with no direct evidence of infection was twofold higher in care homes with outbreaks versus those without (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.2 [1.8; 2.6]). Conclusions findings suggest many deaths occurred in people who were infected with COVID-19, but not tested. Higher occupancy and lower staffing levels were independently associated with risks of infection. Protecting staff and residents from infection requires regular testing for COVID-19 and fundamental changes to staffing and care home occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It's official: The UK is in a recession. The economy has suffered its biggest slump on record with a drop in gross domestic product (GDP) of 20.4%. 1 This is going to have a significant impact on our health and well-being. It risks creating a spiralling decay as we know good health is not only a consequence, but also a condition for sustained and sustainable economic development. 2 In this way, the health of a nation creates a virtuous circle of improved health and improved economic prosperity. How we measure prosperity is therefore important and needs to be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the discussion on link among climate change, poverty, and inequality. Topics include attributed to the effect of climate change related to extreme weather events, changing patterns of disease, and effects on agricultural production; and dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security, and women's empowerment.