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One of the main obstacles to implementing the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program (CCFGP) is the risk of returning forest and grassland to cropland when their livelihoods are challenged after subsidies expire. The implementation of the new old-age insurance system for rural residents has weakened the economic security function of cropland and may motivate farmers to engage in the CCFGP spontaneously and permanently. Based on the utility theory, this paper first developed a theoretical analysis framework for the behaviors of farmers who participated in the CCFGP and were affected by the new old-age insurance system. Then, based on the data of 18 789 fixed rural observation stations set by the Rural Economy Research Center of China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Probit model was used to empirically analyze the impact of the new old-age insurance system on farmers' behaviors in the CCFGP. Finally, the robustness of the results was tested using a logistic regression model based on clustering robust standard errors. The results showed that: ① The new old-age insurance system increased expected income, while the CCFGP reduced expected income, but the extra spare time after the action increased farmers' utility. The theoretical analysis framework showed that: the behaviors of farmers participating in the new old-age insurance system affected the amount of arable land, thus affecting the behaviors of farmers' participation in the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland. ② After farmers' participation in the new agricultural insurance, they were more likely to adopt the behaviors associated with the conversion of cropland to forest and grassland. The new oldage insurance system increased the income channels for elderly farmers, thereby weakening the economic security function of cultivated land and, to a certain extent, promoting farmers to take part in the CCFGP. ③ In the robustness test, the logistic regression model with clustering robust standard errors still confirmed the conclusion that 'participating in the new old-age insurance system is beneficial for farmers joining the CCFGP.' ④ The poorer the health conditions of farmers, the lower the possibility of joining the CCFGP. Poor health conditions generally meant large medical expenses, greater uncertainty in future income, and strong dependence on cultivated land, which resulted in farmers' reluctance to be involved in the CCFGP. Farmers with higher original values of productive fixed assets were more likely to join the CCFGP. The policy implications of the conclusions are that it may be more effective to integrate the new old-age insurance system for rural residents with the CCFGP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural insurance can resist risks, ensure agricultural production and operation, boost the agricultural economy, help modern agricultural development, and affect agricultural income. Based on the panel data of China’ s provincial agricultural insurance from 2007 to 2019, this study used the two-way fixed effect model and multiple intermediary effect model to analyze the ‘hematopoietic’ income-increasing effect of agricultural insurance from three aspects: development scale, guarantee level, and compensation level, and carried out endogenous treatment and regional heterogeneity analysis. Meanwhile, based on the perspective of helping the development of modern agriculture and considering the five dimensions of agricultural production scale, mechanization, technology, specialization, and green development, this study used the multiple intermediary effect model to investigate the ‘hematopoietic’ income-increasing mechanism of agricultural insurance affecting agricultural income. The results showed that: ① Agricultural insurance could promote the improvement of agricultural income and had the effect of ‘hematopoietic’ income increase. The compensation level had the greatest impact on agricultural income, which was 8.869%, followed by the guarantee level, which was 4.444%, and the development scale was the weakest, at 0.016%. ② Improving the scale, mechanization, specialization, and green development of agricultural production were effective ways for the development of agricultural insurance to achieve ‘hematopoietic’ income growth, but for the agricultural insurance guarantee level and compensation level, enlarging the scale and improving the mechanization of agricultural production were the only effective ways to increase income. The low guarantee level and compensation level inhibited the intermediary transmission mechanism in the process of agricultural modernization and increasing agricultural income. ③ The role of agricultural insurance in increasing agricultural income was mainly reflected in China’ s mid-western regions, while in the eastern region, agricultural insurance failed to play a ‘hematopoietic’ role in the process of agricultural modernization and increasing agricultural income. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize insurance contracts to effectively improve the benefit of insurance compensation, enhance the directionality of agricultural insurance policies to help farmers engage in agricultural modernization, and implement multi-level differentiated security measures to meet the needs of heterogeneous risk protection, so as to promote the high-quality development of agricultural insurance, agricultural modernization, and rural revitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of agricultural insurance can guide agricultural operators to change the traditional mode of production, and then affect the carbon emission behavior in agricultural production. The theme of this paper is the carbon reduction effect and path mechanism of agricultural insurance. First of all, based on the perspective of agricultural scale management, planting structure adjustment and agricultural technology progress, this paper made a theoretical analysis of the carbon emission reduction effect of the development of agricultural insurance. Secondly, based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2018, this paper made an empirical analysis on the carbon emission reduction effect and mechanism of agricultural insurance development by using the two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model. The main findings were as follows: ➀ Overall, the development of agricultural insurance significantly promoted the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions. On average, for every 1 million yuan more in the total premium of agricultural insurance, the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 71 tons; for every 1 yuan more in the per capita agricultural insurance premium of agricultural practitioners, the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 364 tons; for every 1 yuan more in the agricultural insurance premium per hectare of crops, the total agricultural carbon emissions in the region would decrease by 254 tons. ➁ In the heterogeneity analysis, the reduction effect of agricultural insurance on total carbon emissions was mainly reflected in the eastern provinces and non-main grain producing provinces, but was not significant in the central and western provinces and main grain producing provinces. ➂ Further analysis showed that the development of agricultural insurance was helpful to reduce the density and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. ➃ In the mechanism analysis, the expansion of agricultural operation scale and the increase of the proportion of grain crops were effective mediating mechanisms; the development of agricultural insurance could promote the progress of agricultural technology, but it would not further promote the low-carbon transformation of agricultural production technology. The policy implications are as follows: first, we should continue to promote agricultural insurance through subsidies, and guide agricultural producers to adopt the mode of large-scale operation and crop structure conducive to carbon emission reduction; second, we should simplify the payment procedures, standardize the loss determination standards, and promote participation in agricultural insurance through education in the central and western regions, which is conducive to the better performance of agricultural insurance products; third, under the guidance of innovative green agricultural insurance, agricultural producers should be guided to adopt green and low-carbon production technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]