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Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051–2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bt maize is being increasingly cultivated worldwide as the effects of climate change are increasing globally. Bt maize IE09S034 and its near-isogenic non-Bt maize Zong 31 were used to investigate whether climate change alters the effects of Bt maize on soil Collembola. Warming and drought conditions were simulated using open-top chambers (OTC), and their effects on soil Collembola were evaluated. We found that the maize type had no significant effect on Collembola; however, the abundance and diversity of Collembola were significantly higher in the OTC than outside at the seedling stage; they were significantly lower in the OTC at the heading and mature stages. The interactions of the maize type with the OTC had no effect on these parameters. Therefore, Bt maize had no significant effect on soil Collembola, and the effects of climate warming and drought on soil Collembola depended on the ambient climatic conditions. When the temperature was low, collembolan abundance and diversity were promoted by warming; however, when the temperature was high and the humidity was low, collembolan abundance and diversity were inhibited by warming and drought. The climate changes simulated by the OTC did not alter the effects of Bt maize on soil Collembola. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat stress in combination with drought has become the biggest concern and threat for maize yield production, especially in arid and hot regions. Accordingly, different optimal solutions should be considered in order to maintain maize production and reduce the risk of heat stress under the changing climate. In the current study, the risk of heat stress across Iranian maize agro-ecosystems was analyzed in terms of both intensity and frequency. The study areas comprised 16 provinces and 24 locations classified into five climate categories: arid and hot, arid and temperate, semi-arid and hot, semi-arid and temperate, and semi-arid and cold. The impact of heat stress on maize under a future climate was based on a 5‐multi‐model ensemble under two optimistic and pessimistic emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for 2040–2070 using the APSIM crop model. Simulation results illustrated that in the period of 2040–2070, intensity and the frequency of heat stress events increased by 2.37 °C and 79.7%, respectively, during maize flowering time compared to the baseline. The risk of heat stress would be almost 100% in hot regions in the future climate under current management practices, mostly because of the increasing high-risk window for heat stress which will result in a yield reduction of 0.83 t ha−1. However, under optimal management practices,farmers will economically obtain acceptable yields (6.6 t ha−1). The results also indicated that the high-risk windows in the future will be lengthening from 12 to 33 days in different climate types. Rising temperatures in cold regions as a result of global warming would provide better climate situations for maize growth, so that under optimistic emission scenarios and optimal management practices, farmers will be able to boost grain yield up to 9.2 t ha−1. Overall, it is concluded that farmers in hot and temperate regions need to be persuaded to choose optimal sowing dates and new maize cultivars which are well adapted to each climate to reduce heat stress risk and to shift maize production to cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]