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Ecological compensation is an innovative and effective tool to explore the coordinated development of socioeconomic prosperity and ecological protection, especially for a watershed crossing different regions. It converts the externalities of ecosystem services into practical financial incentives for local stakeholders. This empirical study applies a quantitative policy evaluation approach to evaluate the environmental and economic effects of an ecological compensation policy, using the paddy land–to–dry land (PLDL) program implemented in China's Miyun Reservoir watershed as an example. The study is based on responses to a 2017 questionnaire regarding agricultural production inputs and outputs administered to 269 households in Hebei Province, where the PLDL program has been operational for over 10 yr. The results show that the program has reduced nitrogen usage by 24% on average in 2017 and decreased the total nitrogen emission load by 16.98 tons for the entire case area, which accounts for approximately 18.6% of the total nitrogen load reduction of the Miyun Reservoir basin. However, the upstream households involved in this program have experienced agricultural income losses higher than that allowed for by the current compensation criterion. Therefore, this paper discusses the factors that should be considered in the process of determining ecological compensation criteria. In particular, the paper proposes a differential compensation scheme based on the environmental effect at the individual level to avoid a standard payment for all households irrespective of their different contributions. This differential compensation payment scheme facilitates the fair treatment of environmental contributors and maximizes environmental benefits through an equitable allocation of limited ecological compensation funds. This study serves as a theoretical and practical reference for further improvement of the current ecological compensation policy in China. The study also sheds light on practices for estimating ecological compensation criteria and formulating ecological compensation policies for other regions or countries in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural insurance is a significant driver of agricultural development worldwide. In this paper, a fixed‐effects panel approach and instrumental variable regressions are used to examine the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural output in China. The study is based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 2004 to 2018. Findings indicate that agricultural insurance led to a significant increase in aggregate agricultural output across provinces. The results remain robust when potential endogeneity in insurance uptake is considered. In addition, mechanism tests were performed to identify the channels through which insurance influences productivity. These show that agricultural insurance contributes to increasing labor productivity and the area of cultivated land per capita and encourages specialized planting, all of which promote growth in agricultural production. Finally, agricultural insurance plays a more important role in Eastern China and nonmajor crop‐producing areas [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q18]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China (NEC) is the most prominent grain‐producing region in China. However, it is currently facing significant impacts from climate change. Since the climate‐related impacts on crop yield in this region are a major concern for society in the future, quantifying climate change impacts on crop yields in NEC is essential to ensure future food security. This study aimed to quantify the effects of future climate change on crop yields in NEC and explore adaptation strategies using the Crop Growth Model (PCSE) driven by downscaled CMIP6 climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios during 2015–2100. Results showed that there could be average reductions in crop yields of 21.4% for maize and 4.2% for soybean by the year 2100 under SSP585 compared to the 2015 baseline. The increasing temperature was the dominant factor in reducing yields, although elevated CO2 and precipitation offered partial compensation. The optimized planting date brought noticeable benefits for rice and soybean but had limited effects on maize due to heat stress. Relocating rice expansion eastward and implementing earlier planting increased yields by up to 50% but adversely decreased soybean and maize due to competition. This study enriches our comprehension of climate change impacts on NEC agriculture, while also quantifying potential benefits and constraints of evaluated adaptations. The proposed adaptations may help mitigate projected yield declines in other key agricultural regions across the globe. Adjusting crop management practices to capitalize on changing climate factors shows promise as a strategy for sustaining production globally. Plain Language Summary: Northeast China (NEC) is essential for achieving food accessibility and food security in China, but its agricultural production is seriously threatened by climate change. This study investigated how climate change could impact maize, rice, and soybean crop yields in this region from 2015 to 2100, using the PCSE crop model and forcing from the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. Simulation results suggested rising temperatures would negatively affect crop yields, especially for maize. Increased carbon dioxide and rainfall partially offset these losses. By 2100, average declines were projected for maize (−21%) and soybeans (−4%), respectively. Altering planting dates to match crop needs was an effective adaptation to boost yields, with rice benefiting the most. Relocating rice production eastward and expanding its area substantially increased simulated rice yields (+62%) but decreased other crops due to competition (−32% maize, −28% soybeans). Even with adaptations, some areas still showed yield declines, indicating extra measures may be needed to maintain production. Overall, this study suggests significant risks to crop yields from climate change in Northeast China, with adaptations like optimized planting and strategic crop relocation able to mitigate some but not all of the projected impacts. Key Points: Rising temperatures negatively impacted simulated future crop yields, especially for maizeAdjusting planting dates boosted yields for rice and soybeans but had limited benefits for maizeRelocating and expanding the rice area increased yields substantially [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China's crop production growth rate has decreased. This has provoked questions on whether the grain yields have reached their potential. Taking the North China Plain (NCP) as the study area, this study first simulated the potential yield of an irrigated maize crop with the WOFOST model, using daily weather data for 1960–2017. The yield gap was quantified for 1998–2017, and finally, the total potential maize production was estimated. The results indicate that during 1960–2017, the average potential yield for the region varied annually from 9.5 to 13.5 t ha−1, showing an obvious downward trend at a rate of 37.6 kg ha−1 per year. The long‐term mean potential yield at all 327 counties ranged from 9.9 to 13.7 t ha−1, increasing from south to north. The annual maize yield gap was between an average of 2.7–6.0 t ha−1 (29.0%–51.3%) of the potential yield for the NCP during 1998–2017. At county‐level, the yield gap varied between 1.9 and 7.8 t ha−1 and exceeded 5.0 t ha−1 for 99 counties (30.3% of all counties). Attainable yields can be increased by 0.1–5.2 t ha−1 at county‐level, and by 2.2 t ha−1 for the whole NCP, implying that the maize production has the potential to increase with 20.8 Mt. To increase maize production, the focus areas should be the southcentral NCP, which have a larger yield gap during 2012–2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing crop production increases agricultural water consumption (AWC), but whether these two factors are matched in northern and southern China in the past two decades remains controversial. Here we used a remote sensing‐based water‐carbon coupling model combined with satellite observations to quantify the crop production, AWC, and water deficit changes in China over 2003–2018. We show that in northern China, crop production and AWC significantly (p < 0.05) increased, mainly due to planting area expansion, and the increasing rates were 2.6 and 6.2 times greater than those in southern China. The increasing irrigation demand in northern China greatly reduced the availability of stored terrestrial water and could not be met by the agricultural water supply in the next two decades. Our results show that the conflict between the limited agricultural water supply and the increasing irrigation demand cannot be resolved by the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project, and better management in water resources and crop production is needed to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Plain Language Summary: Water is essential to agricultural production. Increasing water consumption in water supply limited areas may result in a water crisis and threaten sustainable food security, especially in China, the most populated agricultural country in the world. There are continuous arguments regarding the matches between agricultural water consumption and supply in China for the past decades and for the future. Satellite‐based observation is an advanced technique to detect the real crop growth characteristics in large scales. Here we used a satellite‐driven water‐carbon coupling model to show the conflicts between the agricultural production and water resources in northern and southern China. We found that expansion in arable land areas increased irrigation water demand in northern China during 2003–2018 and has intensively reduced the available terrestrial water resources in agricultural areas. The additional water supplied by China's largest water transfer project has limited capability to mitigate the agricultural water crisis problems in northern regions in the near future, calling for improved agricultural water management measures to ensure food‐water security in a changing environment. Key Points: The crop production‐water resource conflicts between northern and southern China intensified during 2003–2018Crop water consumption and demand increased faster in north China than in south China due to crop production expansionChina's largest water transfer project has limited capacity to ease water crisis in next two decades, calling for improved water governance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is the world's largest consumer of water resources, and accurate measurement of crop water footprint (CWF) can provide a scientific basis for evaluating the water use characteristics of agricultural production and guiding water management. The measurement of regional CWF requires large amounts of ground data, and remote sensing provides an effective means to scientifically measure the CWF on a large scale. In this study, we developed an effective means to estimate regional maize CWF based on global evapotranspiration (MOD16 and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)‐Noah) products in China. And we also calculated the CWF based on the FAO Penman‐Monteith equation (FAO‐PM) on the site scale in China. We assessed the accuracy of these methods by comparing them against eight eddy‐covariance based flux tower measurements. Links and differences behind the results of the three water footprint calculations were analyzed in terms of the basic principles and characteristics of the calculations. The results showed that the CWF had a similar distribution based on the MOD16 and GLDAS‐Noah, reflecting the influence of regional soil moisture on the CWF. Computational rationale analysis of the three quantitative methods showed that the ETc‐based method from the FAO‐PM model was similar to the MOD16‐ and GLDAS‐Noah‐based CWF in the wetter areas, two remote sensing‐based methods considered the water constraints during soil evaporation and water dissipation during dry and wet canopy conditions, and were closer to reality than the ETc‐based methods in measuring the CWF in arid and semi‐arid regions. Key Points: An effective means based on MOD16 and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)‐Noah was developed for simulating regional maize crop water footprint (CWF)The accuracy of the estimated CWF based on FAO‐PM was influenced by the soil moistureThe CWF estimated by MOD16 or GLDAS‐Noah was closer to the reality than that estimated by FAO‐PM, especially in arid and semi‐arid region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although evidence shows that roads and conventional railways promote rural development, little is known about the impact of high‐speed rail (HSR) on agricultural output. To bridge this gap, this study explores how the establishment of HSR affects agricultural production. The causal effect was identified by constructing panel data mainly for Chinese counties between 2001 and 2017 using a difference‐in‐differences (DID) framework. The empirical results, after controlling for county‐specific linear trends, reveal that an HSR connection contributes to increasing agricultural value added and food output by approximately 4% and 6%, respectively. Moreover, the effects are mainly driven by increased productivity and adjustments to grain production and economic crops rather than the increased use of observed inputs. These results provide fresh evidence on the effect of transportation improvements on agricultural economies and highlight the need to control nonparallel trends when using the DID method to disentangle the effect. [EconLit Citations: O18, Q13, L92]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large quantities of fertilizers, mainly nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K), are used in China's crop production; however, whether N, P, and K still limit yield under the current high input remains unknown. In addition, it is not clear whether magnesium (Mg) potentially limits crop production. To address these issues, a national survey of the soil nutrient status and farmers' fertilization practices was conducted in China to determine the soil N, P, K, and Mg status and current fertilization practices. In addition, various experiments, including optimized NPK (OPTNPK) and Mg fertilizer combined with OPTNPK (OPTNPK + Mg) in comparison with farmers' practices (FFP), were performed across China to identify the potential for reducing NPK application and the need for Mg application in crop production. The survey data from 2699 questionnaires indicated that (1) all soil samples were not deficient in NPK, but 73.0% were limited by Mg. (2) The average N, P (in P2O5), K (in K2O), and Mg (in MgO) balances were 422.6, 334.1, 326.3, and −22.6 kg ha−1, respectively. Only 15.7% of all farmers applied Mg fertilizer. (3) NPK fertilization can be reduced by an average of 28.8% without reducing the crop yield and quality. (4) For most crops, the application of Mg fertilizer increased the crop yield by 5.5–40.6% and improved the quality. However, different crops under different conditions had different responses to Mg fertilization. These results indicate that reduced NPK inputs and increased Mg inputs are equally important for the healthy development and sustainability of China's agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use household‐level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within‐village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misallocation) and (2) the allocation of workers across sectors, in particular the type of farmers who operate in agriculture (selection). Selection substantially amplifies the productivity effect of distortionary policies by affecting occupational choices that worsen average ability in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused tremendous damages and deaths in Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China. Revealing the relationship between large‐scale circulation patterns and precipitation extremes is vital for understanding the physical mechanisms and providing potential value for improving prediction and hence reducing impacts. Here, nine large‐scale circulation patterns are identified for July–August using the self‐organizing map. We find daily precipitation extremes under the fifth pattern (P5), characterized with the strongest easterly wind anomalies in Henan, feature the highest frequency and the largest intensity. Seven out of total 11 days in the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, and the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger intensity of precipitation extremes is attributed to the dynamical contribution, suggesting more‐intense precipitation extremes under P5 are largely dominated by stronger ascending motions. Plain Language Summary: Henan is one of the most populated provinces in China. Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused devastating catastrophes, such as flooding and urban waterlogging, which resulted in widespread impacts on agricultural production, human livelihood, and economic development. We used a clustering method called self‐organizing map to link large‐scale circulation patterns with daily precipitation extremes in Henan Province. Our results show that the fifth pattern (P5), associated with the strongest easterly wind anomalies over Henan Province, is most conducive to extreme rainfall. Precipitation extremes under P5 exhibit the highest occurrence frequency and the largest mean intensity. Seven out of total 11 days for the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, while the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger mean intensity of precipitation extremes under P5 is mainly caused by strong ascending motions. This work provides important implications for understanding the physical mechanisms and also providing potential value for the forecasting of precipitation extremes in Henan Province. Key Points: The circulation pattern (P5) most conducive to the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes is identified using self‐organizing mapSeven out of total 11 days in the "21·7" and "75·8" catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5 patternThe dynamical processes, that is, the stronger ascending motions, dominate the more‐intense precipitation extremes in P5 pattern [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grain self‐sufficiency (GSS) is gaining increased attention throughout the world, and this holds particularly true for China. This study, therefore, investigated spatial and temporal patterns of GSS at the county level in China from 1980s to the 2010s; then explored future GSS changes in the 2035s according to China's 2016 dietary nutrition guidelines, under the circumstances of maximum, average and minimum grain yield increase rate; and finally discussed the ability of a county to purchase grain to meet its demands. The results indicate that the number of counties with self‐insufficiency for total grain and ration decreased, and the amount of counties with high‐level self‐sufficiency for total grain and ration increased. However, the change in the number of counties with feed grain self‐insufficiency and high‐level self‐sufficiency is opposite to that of ration and total grain. Eastern China was characterised by high GSS of total grain, ration and feed grain. As for different kinds of grain, high level of GSS distributed in main grain producing areas, such as rice in south China, wheat in western China and Huang Huai Hai Plain, maize in north and northwest China and soybean in northeast China. Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has undergone poor food security in the last 30 years. In the 2035s, China's total GSS level and ration self‐sufficiency level will be improved under the maximum and average grain yield increase rate, whilst for feed grain, the self‐sufficiency level will be improved only under the maximum grain yield increase rate. The Qinghai‐Tibet plateau has always been a fragile area of food security. This study plays the vital function in understanding China's food security and contributes to the optimisation of agricultural production as well as the utilisation of both internal and external markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global warming on crop production have received great attention in recent years. However, inconsistent results have been obtained with regard to major crops such as rice and wheat in rice–wheat rotation systems of China. Therefore, we undertook a comprehensive meta‐analysis of literature data. The yield response to warming differed for rice and wheat in the rice–wheat rotation system. Overall, warming significantly increased wheat yield (by 4.8%) but significantly reduced rice yield (by 14.8%). A number of factors were responsible for these observations. For example, rice yield responses varied with the temperature increase, variety and nitrogen (N) rate. Of these, N was the most important variable influencing yield responses to warming. The yield loss for rice was lower at temperature increases of 0.40–1.40°C and at a high N rate than that at temperature increases of 1.60–2.49°C and at a low N rate, respectively. The yield loss of indica rice was lower than that of japonica rice. For wheat, however, yield responses to warming varied with the warming regime, ambient temperature, temperature increases, and CO2 concentrations. Of these factors, ambient temperature was the most important variable influencing yield in response to warming. Warming increased wheat yield at a mean growth season temperature ≤10°C, temperature increases of 0.80–1.50°C, and at ambient CO2 concentrations. In addition, either daytime warming or nighttime warming significantly increased wheat yield. However, all‐day warming had no effect on wheat yields. We conclude that global warming will benefit wheat production but result in a serious loss of rice yield in rice–wheat rotations in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid and semi‐arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Agricultural production in these regions is particularly vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on climate conditions. Therefore, it is important to improve the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions. This study investigates the changes in agroclimatic conditions for growing Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) in the semi‐arid North China during 2031–2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. It employs high‐resolution climate data provided by the regional climate model (RCM) of Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS‐2.0). The changes in CMY yield and producing area under future climate change are simulated by the Agro‐Ecological Zone model. The simulations are based on newly calibrated cultivar parameters. The results show that the high‐resolution RCM simulation corresponds better with the observations of precipitation and temperature than the general circulation model (GCM). Because of the increased temperature and precipitation, the agroclimatic conditions for CMY are going to improve. While the traditional yam production area will maintain suitable for CMY production, the CMY production areas will further expand northward in the future. The average yield will increase by 1,196 and 1,336 kg DM/ha under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Key Points: Improving the projections of future agro‐climatic conditions in the semi‐arid North ChinaThe high‐resolution Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies projections correspond better with the observationsThe Chinese Medicinal Yam production areas will expand northward in the future, the average yield will increase by 1196–1336 kg DM/ha in the future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]