Search

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an economic life cycle assessment of hydrogen-fueled gas turbine power plant is developed, where hydrogen is produced via electrolysis with electricity generated from renewable resources (green hydrogen). By this way, the continuous green electricity without fluctuation can be generated. With a great potential in solar irradiation, Iran can be a major country for producing green hydrogen. For this purpose, first, we simulate a 100 MW solar PV plant in Fars province and calculate annual electricity generation. Considering capital cost (Capex) and operations and maintenance costs (Opex) of plants including PV, electrolyzer, hydrogen storage and distribution facilities, and gas turbine, we estimate levelized cost of electricity from green H2-fueled gas turbine power plant. Because hydrogen technology has not matured yet, the analysis for both 2021 and 2040 will be conducted. Due to lower marginal production costs, the increase in renewable energy sources decreases electricity wholesale prices. In this paper, we also estimate long-term merit order effect (MOE) of electricity generated by green hydrogen on electricity wholesale price. The results show that in renewable/hydrogen-based forecast for electricity mix of 2040, electricity wholesale price is estimated around 6.38 c$/kWh, nearly 38% less than present wholesale price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce the delayed-advanced Kaldorian business cycle model and consider how time-delay and time-advance affect economic fluctuations. Given the asymptotic stability of the original Kaldor model, we first show that an approximated Kaldor model by a Taylor series expansion can accurately describe the dynamics of the delayed Kaldor model. We also confirm that the delay has a destabilizing effect. When time-delay is replaced with time-advance, we have an advanced Kaldor model. Taking the advanced capital stock formulation, we derive the stability conditions and find that the time-advance has a stabilizing effect. Lastly, we examine these opposite-signed effects in a modified delayed-advanced model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets up a small open new Keynesian economy model with constrained households and incomplete markets to address the driving forces of business cycles in Korea. It shows that there exists a substantial fraction of constrained households who cannot have access to financial market. Furthermore, the estimated model reveals that a TANK model is better than a RANK model in explaining business cycles in Korea. The effect of domestic productivity shock on Korean economy has dominated in the variations of output, while the contribution of the foreign productivity shock to the variations of output and inflation has increased after the Asian financial crisis. The monetary policy shock has dominated the variation of inflation at short and medium horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania's GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short-and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper characterizes the Top Trading Cycles (TTC) mechanism for the school choice problem where schools may have multiple available seats to be assigned to students. We first define weaker forms of fairness, consistency, and resource monotonicity. We show that the TTC mechanism is the unique Pareto efficient and strategy-proof mechanism that satisfies these weaker forms of fairness, consistency and resource monotonicity. We also show that in a well-defined sense TTC is the "most stable" Pareto efficient mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly leads to budget and schedule contingencies. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In the literature, a considerable number of papers have tried to determine construction PM challenges, mainly using statistical methods. These methods do not consider the cause-and-effect relationship among variables. To enhance the existing methods, this paper applies social network analysis (SNA) principles in order to rank a group of variables based on cause-and-effect relationships. To demonstrate the proposed idea, a data set is constructed that includes different types of challenges acquired from the literature comprehended with the forward-chaining approach. In total, 49 critical challenges were identified and subsequently categorized into 12 groups. Two questionnaires were designed to assist in ranking the challenges. 108 construction experts and 20 panelists participated in this study, and the acquired data were used to evaluate the proposed SNA-based method. By applying the proposed method to the obtained data, a complex weighted and directed network is constructed and examined by three metrics: weighted in-degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. The results revealed that poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, and poor decision making are the main challenges that occur in the construction environment. Moreover, it was figured out that considering the cause-and-effect relationship among variables resulted in a highly different ranking of challenges, much closer to the real situation. This model could be used in quantitative-analytical research conducted in the construction project knowledge area in order to obtain more interpretable answers. Due to the complex and dynamic atmosphere in the construction sector, different types of challenges are faced by project managers (PMs). These challenges potentially have negative impacts on the PM's managerial performance, which mostly lead to time and cost overruns. In this vein, scrutinizing the main challenges in a construction project and identifying the cause-and-effect relationships among these challenges is a crucially important process. In this research, comprehensive scientific efforts were made in order to rank the main PMs' challenges in the construction sector, especially in developing countries. For this purpose, cause-and-effect relationships among variables were considered. By using different questionnaires as well as forming different focus groups and interviewing different experts, we found that the main top 10 challenges in the construction sector are: poor planning, contractors'/subcontractors' financial difficulties, poor decision making, time pressure, rework, stressful atmosphere, design alteration (even after execution), workforce turnover, fluctuation rate and economic instability, and inappropriate and unrealistic scheduling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses upon alignment behaviour in the post-Soviet space and seeks to explain why balancing Russia by certain post-Soviet states, despite their numerous efforts to form alliances, has failed. Whereas this failure lies within the explanatory realm of the classical alignment theories, it is more puzzling why some of these post-Soviet states understood the limitations of balancing well and acted accordingly, while others failed to do so at detrimental costs. Trying to explain the failure of balancing Russia, the paper introduces a new theoretical concept that complements the existing alignment theories, and subsequently moves to explain the empirical puzzle of variations in post-Soviet states' assessment of alignment options. In doing so, the paper focuses upon three case studies, namely Georgia and Ukraine on the one hand, that increased their efforts to balance Russia in the last decade and ended up detrimentally, and Azerbaijan on the other hand that refrained from doing so. Unit level variables such as the elites' mis-perceptions/miscalculations of their alignment options as well as distribution of material capabilities, domestic politics and different strategic cultures are employed to explain the variation. The theoretical concept offered in the paper allows for an accurate understanding of alignment behavior in the post-Soviet space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature mostly investigates the business cycle transmission of the United Kingdom (UK) and France as a part of a wider group (e.g. European Exchange Rate Mechanism or G7), despite their historical links and regional significance. Thus, herein paper aims to analyse the inter-dependence of these economies and how a shock from one of them affects the other for the data since 1978 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, first, preliminary statistics were calculated in order to describe the historical relationship between these countries. The econometric part estimates the vector auto-regression model (VAR) to assess the inter-dependence of the economies. VAR model allows further to inspect the impulse response functions that shows the shock dynamics from one country to another. In order to verify if a shock from one of the economies is important to another, the study uses granger causality test. Findings: The study establishes a strong link between these countries. A business cycle is transmitted significantly between the economies of France and UK, with a single standard deviation shock from France resulting in a long term effect of 0.4% change in gross domestic product (GDP) of UK and 1% vice versa. Additionally changes in GDP of both of the countries significantly Granger-cause change to GDP of the corresponding economy. Originality/value: This is the first empirical study investigating the business cycle transmission between France and UK and providing a quantitative assessment of their inter-dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides pioneering estimates of the impact of loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, also known as leverage, on Bolivia's GDP. The empirical evidence reveals the pro-cyclicality between the economic and financial cycles, which affects the intertemporal resource allocation processes between the financial and real sectors. The findings from the RBC model demonstrate that shocks in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios trigger a rise in housing prices and greater consumption by entrepreneurs, leading to an increase in investment, employment, and output. Additionally, the study confirms that LTV ratios can be a double-edged instrument, as excessive use can potentially destabilize the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deliberate non-enforcement of the law has been analyzed as a policy tool to redistribute income. I show that it also responds to political incentives for the provision of insurance, resembling two well-known dimensions of social policy design. I analyze data from a large informal program of social insurance in the world: informal access to electricity service. Transmission and distribution losses (TDL) in the electricity sector are counter-cyclical because non-compliance and theft increase during economic crises. By exploiting variation in political institutions, I capture political motivations for the provision of informal insurance. Using a panel of 110 developing countries (1970–2014) and instrumental variables for business cycles and regime type, I show that unlike highly entrenched autocrats, democracies tolerate increases in electricity losses during negative income shocks. This paper expands the literature on "forbearance" showing how the provision of informal insurance varies across the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: For close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework. Design/methodology/approach: This study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates. Findings: The results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification. Originality/value: The paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece's agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heritage tourism in Egypt, differentiated by its distinctive ancient wonders and cultural prosperity, has faced numerous challenges through its history, with political unrest, economic fluctuations, and, most recently, the global COVID-19 pandemic. This research paper investigates the dynamic interplay between planned and adopted resilience within the hotel sector in Egyptian heritage sites and their consequential effects on both social and economic sustainability. A quantitative research method was employed to empirically explore these dynamics. A structured questionnaire was distributed to 550 top and middle managers in hotels located in heritage sites, capturing insights into their perspectives on planned and adopted resilience. The collected data underwent rigorous analysis utilizing "partial least squares structural equation modeling" (PLS-SEM), providing a robust foundation for drawing meaningful conclusions. Findings from the research underscore the necessity of aligning planned and adopted resilience to generate sustainable social and economic performance. The synthesis of planned and adopted resilience was revealed to be pivotal in generating sustainable social and economic performance for hotels. This synthesis catalyzes the hotels' ability to mitigate uncertainties, adjust to changing environment, and ensure long-term viability. This research might contribute to the current literature by suggesting industry-specific awareness for the reciprocal relationship between planned and adopted resilience in the hotel businesses and their combined influence on both sides of sustainability (social and economic). The findings provide actionable recommendations for hotel management, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to enhance resilience, foster social cohesion, and ensure the economic sustainability of heritage tourism in an everchanging environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Unemployment is a huge topic for policymakers, scholars, and, in general, society. Historically, there have always been a lot of discussions about this phenomenon. It is already acknowledged that unemployment is closely related to economic activity: when the economy is growing, more people are employed, and when economic activity is low, employment decreases, and unemployment rises. This relation is well-researched in the framework of Okun's law. However, it is far less known how this relationship holds if international economic relations are introduced. Thus, the motivation for the research was to examine the role of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growthunemployment nexus. Purpose of the article: To assess how trade and FDI affect growth and gender-, age-, and educational attainment level-specific unemployment relationship and on what scale this effect varies over different business cycle phases. Methods: Scientific literature review, comparative analysis, and panel regression. Findings & value added: Given the lack of research examining what effect FDI and trade have on the growth-unemployment nexus, this paper estimates modified Okun's equation on the European Union (EU) countries (EU-28, by the composition of the EU until 31/01/2020) for the period from 2000 to 2019 while incorporating international aspects that can have an impact on this nexus. Also, this study develops a specification that can be useful to monitor the potentially different effects of FDI and trade on the growth-unemployment nexus during different business cycle phases. The estimations of the panel regression for unemployment disaggregated by age, gender and education level has showed that import, export, inward FDI, and outward FDI have a negative effect on the growth-unemployment nexus. It means that with an increase in the intensity of international economic relations, the influence of gross domestic product (GDP) growth on unemployment becomes less significant. Thus, the effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy to reduce unemployment becomes less effective in more open economies, which in the case of the EU are the smallest member states with relatively small domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a Kalecki–Steindl–Minsky stock-flow consistent (SFC) model by including inventories, as well as firm's deposits and debt financing into the investment function. The role of investment decisions in shaping aggregate fluctuations over the business cycle is assessed by considering a model populated by five types of economic actors: workers, rentiers, firms, commercial banks and the central bank. Business cycle fluctuations are investigated assuming a deterministic steady growth path in the long period, in line with recent developments in heterodox growth theory. Next, we simulate the model, calibrating it for the US economy. Our main results confirm the relevance of inventory dynamics in economic cycles, similar to Metzler's (1941, 1947) analysis. First, inventory investment propagates shocks and affects the length of waves, deviation size and time to convergence. Second, expectations may determine whether there are oscillations or a steady convergence to the long-term trend. Third, we suggest that inventory investment accommodates rapid aggregate demand variations, although not presenting a multiplier effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which the banking sector opens up will immediately impact the structure of the national financial system, which will then directly influence the transmission mechanism and effect of monetary policy because it is the fundamental link in the financial system. This study describes the DSGE model of two nations with heterogeneous banks in light of the disparities in global capital flows and loan restrictions between Chinese and foreign banks. DSGE stands for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. The results show that (1) foreign banks can lessen the net worth shocks of local banks when they are subject to negative shocks to their net worth by injecting international capital flows. (2) The buffer mechanism of foreign banks will obstruct the transmission of monetary policy and partially offset its policy effects. (3) The buffer mechanism of foreign banks has a more pronounced interference effect on monetary policy when facing negative shocks to their net worth. The management of foreign banks is increasingly loosening as China's financial opening up quickens. The findings of this paper have policy implications for how to seize the dividends brought by financial openness and control the interference with monetary policy beyond the advantages of foreign banks in stabilizing economic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution and continuing relevance of Kalecki's paper on 'Political aspects of full employment' on the 80th anniversary of its publication is the central topic. There are five sets of important and interrelated ideas in Kalecki's paper. Full employment was feasible under capitalism from the perspective of securing a high level of demand through government spending. There would be resistance, particularly from business and finance to prolonged full employment, and there are political and social constraints on long-term full employment. Fascism had secured full employment through its relationships with big business and reducing the political obstacles. A political business cycle with full employment achieved at best at the top of the cycle could be generated. The role of 'fundamental reforms' in sustaining full employment under capitalism, and the 'fate' of fundamental reforms is reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper investigates the predictive ability of oil shocks for international stock market volatility based on a data-rich environment. • We further investigate the predictive ability of the best-performing oil shock by comparing its performance with that of traditional macroeconomic variables and uncertainty. • The LASSO method and regime-switching model can jointly deliver incremental improvement in forecasting accuracy. • This paper tries to provide new evidence for international stock market volatility prediction. This paper investigates the predictive ability of oil shocks for international stock market volatility based on a data-rich environment. Our empirical analysis shows that multiple oil shock measures contain valuable information for predicting stock market volatility, in addition to traditional economic variables and uncertainty indices. Moreover, based on the group 7 countries, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method and regime-switching model jointly deliver incremental improvement in forecasting accuracy from both statistical and economic perspectives. These results are confirmed by robustness checks under different business cycles and market conditions, including the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying a Markov switching model (MSM) to Las Vegas and Macao, this paper decomposes their business cycles of the casino hospitality industry into high and low growth states (HGS, LGS). Compared with Las Vegas, casino gaming in Macao is more volatile due to larger ups and downs in tourism flows, with HGS being far higher and LGS being much lower. Gaming hospitality in both travel destinations has a strong tendency to stay in HGS, but a low chance of recovering from LGS. While the two cities' hospitality cycles are desirably asymmetric, Las Vegas's cycle seems more favorable than Macao's. Furthermore, in this paper, MSM is incorporated into a structural regression to identify determinants of hospitality cycles and generate policy implications useful for decision-making. It is observed that local hospitality cycles are affected by external business cycles and other demand- or supply-side factors. It is necessary for Las Vegas to strengthen promotional marketing and for Macao to pursue industrial diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution examines Sismondi's money, banking and credit theories and explores his public debt analysis (1803–1838) to connect the instability of market economy with his vision of the social contract. A detailed analysis is offered of the evolution in Sismondi's opinion on the nature of money and the banking system, and the part it plays in his trade cycle theory. Sismondi's monetary thought is then contextualised with a discussion of his policy-mix in relation to the Napoleonic war financing in Continental Europe. Connections with the upcoming flood of literature in England on the bullion controversy are also offered. Remarks are then suggested on the progressive emergence of an "art of public borrowing" according to which the people who provide the money also control the government. Finally, some reflections are proposed on the explicit connection established by Sismondi between budget deficits, the (ab-)use of inconvertible paper money and the partial collapse of the social contract initiated by banks and the governments using it. The entrenched instability of a market economy (discussed in an earlier article) is reinforced by the banking/credit system that works along similar line than any wealth-producing firm. Hence, thanks to the financial system, wealth does grow faster but at the expense of social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic forecasting is crucial since it benefits many different parties, such as governments, businesses, investors, and the general public. This paper presents a novel methodology for forecasting business cycles using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), a popular linear model in time series forecasting, and a neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM) as a forecasting model generator. The study used a dataset that included seven components of the leading composite index, which is used to predict positive or negative trends in several economic sectors before the GDP is compiled. The preprocessed time series data comprising the leading composite index using ARIMA were used as input vectors for the NEWFM to predict comprehensive business fluctuations. The prediction capability significantly improved through the duplicated refining process of the dataset using ARIMA and NEWFM. The combined ARIMA and NEWFM techniques exceeded ARIMA in both classification and prediction, yielding an accuracy of 91.61%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. The formation of output gap and inflation expectations by agents is based on stationary values of these variables and on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these rules change endogenously. Histograms of the frequency distribution of the degree of buoyancy and the impulse responses of monetary policy shocks and technology shocks to the variables under study show that a less open economy tends to go through an economic cycle with a smaller amplitude than a more rigid economy. Analyses of the trade-offs between the volatility of inflation and the output gap at different parameter values in the Taylor rule show their non-linear nature (in contrast to standard models with rational expectations). An important result obtained in this analysis is that the rational expectations hypothesis is more consistent with a closed economy than with an open one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Population ageing will bring economic challenges in the future. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether increased educational level could mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability, measured as the gap between labour income and consumption. Design/methodology/approach: Using the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology, the authors decompose labour income and consumption by age and educational level (low, medium and high) and compare obtained age profiles with those calculated conventionally. In addition, using the population projections by age and educational level, the authors project both profiles to 2060 for selected EU countries and assess future economic sustainability. Findings: The results show that the highly educated have a significantly higher surplus for a longer period then those with lower and medium education. Therefore, the improved educational level of individuals will have a substantially positive impact on labour income in the future—on average by about 32% by 2060 for all EU countries included. However, as the better educated also consume more, higher production does not fully translate into improved economic sustainability, but the resulting net effect is still positive at about 19%. Originality/value: The authors present for the first time an NTA by education for 15 EU countries and show the importance of including education in the analysis of the economic life cycle. The authors also show that increased educational level will mitigate the consequences of population ageing on economic sustainability in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to delve into the multidimensionality and complexity of the concept of resilience by exploring two issues. Firstly, it investigates the role of social capital through the social participation and cooperatives in the economic resilience of Greek regions providing novel findings for the social resilience of the country. Secondly, it gains an in-depth understanding about the dualistic nature of resilience as it is related to a dynamic export profile of regions in tandem with one that is more traditional or less exposed to the market. This raises questions about the risk of specific regions being trapped in a protective environment providing policy implications. The measurement of the resilience capability of regions is based on both the time of exposure and the intensity of distress associating thus the business cycles of regions with their resilience capability. Additionally, the analysis studies the full period of recession and recovery, which lasted until the next crisis began (COVID-19 pandemic), allowing the investigation of the configurations formed and of the existence of different stages inside the recovery period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sectoral price stabilization is critical in the pressing context of de-globalization and the climate crisis. Strategic price controls may be effective in reducing economic volatility, but fail to curb emissions, unlike quantity controls such as rationing consumption. In contrast, carbon pricing may accelerate decarbonization, but generate inflationary pressures. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of sector-oriented policies in stabilizing sectoral prices and accelerating the low-carbon transition at the same time, this paper employs a novel environmentally-extended, data-driven dynamic model of multi-sector growth based on the Bielefeld disequilibrium approach to the microeconomic stability of competitive economies. The general composite model allows to empirically characterize the network structure and intensity of dynamic price-quantity interactions at the sector level, which capture heterogeneous firm behavior by integrating long-run Walrasian price and classical quantity dynamics coupled with short-run Keynesian features in the form of target rate of return pricing and demand-led investment. A Bayesian hierarchical model on US BEA data empirically estimates the linear adjustment coefficients and stable combinations are computed. The US economy is shown to feature a highly hierarchical network structure of intermediate production that is particularly vulnerable to micro-economic shocks driven by wars and climate change. Tax-subsidy schemes are shown to be the most effective in stabilizing sectoral prices and economy-environment interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze aggregate shocks decomposition in Croatia. • Domestic shocks were dominant during the transition period. • External shocks became dominant after financial and trade liberalization in 2000. • In the short run, business cycle fluctuations are driven by domestic AS shocks. • In the medium run, fluctuations are driven by external AD shocks. This paper separates macroeconomic shocks into external and domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks in Croatia during and after the transition period using a Bayesian SVAR model. The standard decomposition into aggregate demand and supply shocks covers important information on external sources of economic fluctuations. We find that domestic shocks were a dominant source of fluctuations during the transition period from 1992 to 2000. External shocks increased their importance after 2000, becoming the dominant source of fluctuations with the Global financial crisis. International comparison with other EU post-transition countries shows that short run GDP fluctuations are best explained by domestic aggregate supply shocks in 9 out of 11 analyzed countries, including Croatia. However, in the medium run, GDP fluctuations are dominantly explained by external aggregate demand shocks in 8 out of 11 countries, including Croatia. Inflation in Croatia is driven by external shocks both in the short- and medium run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As our understanding of the process of resilience has become more culturally and contextually grounded, researchers have had to seek innovative ways to account for the complex, reciprocal relationship between the many systems that influence young people's capacity to thrive. This paper briefly traces the history of a more contextualized understanding of resilience and then reviews a social–ecological model to explain multisystemic resilience. A case study is then used to show how a multisystemic understanding of resilience can influence the design and implementation of resilience research. The Resilient Youth in Stressed Environments study is a longitudinal mixed methods investigation of adolescents and emerging adults in communities that depend on oil and gas industries in Canada and South Africa. These communities routinely experience stress at individual, family, and institutional levels from macroeconomic factors related to boom-and-bust economic cycles. Building on the project's methods and findings, we discuss how to create better studies of resilience which are able to capture both emic and etic accounts of positive developmental processes in ways that avoid the tendency to homogenize children's experience. Limitations to doing multisystemic resilience research are also highlighted, with special attention to the need for further innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical modelling of the magnitude and the frequency of extreme observations is fundamental for a variety of sciences. In this paper, we develop statistical methods of similarity‐based clustering for heteroscedastic extremes, which allow us to group time series of independent observations according to their extreme‐value index and scedasis function (i.e., the magnitude and frequency of extreme values, respectively). Clustering scedasis functions and extreme‐value indices involves the challenge of grouping objects composed of both a function (scedasis) and a scalar (extreme‐value index), and thus the need to partition a product‐space. Our analysis reveals an interesting mismatch between the magnitude and frequency of extreme losses on the London Stock Exchange and the corresponding economic sectors of the affected stocks. The analysis further suggests that the dynamics governing the comovement of extreme losses in the exchange contains information on the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm performance. Utilizing a news-based index of economic policy uncertainty and firm-level data in China, firm investment, employment, and revenue are found to be negatively associated with policy-related economic uncertainty. This negative relationship is weakened in state-owned enterprises (a fall in investment of 5.61%, employment growth of 0.09%, and sales growth of 0.31%) compared to that of non-state-owned enterprises (a fall in investment of 7.79%, employment growth of 0.14%, and sales growth of 0.34%). We explore several potential explanations and find evidence supporting that economic policy uncertainty reduces the incentives of firms to expand their operation through the mechanism of risk-taking, cash holdings and tax burden. Given this microscopic study on mechanisms, our analysis provides a reference for policy-makers to effectively reduce economic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the causal effects of different levels of mother's and father's education on child general and mental health, by applying a fixed effects instrumental variable panel data estimator with selection to nationally represented longitudinal data of over 13,000 observations in the United Kingdom from 2008 to 2019. The results reveal a negative association between mother's education and boys' mental health, potentially driven by relative rather than absolute levels of education between parents. Differences in educational attainment between parents signal unequal power and different values, which inhibits conflict resolution and commitment, leading to higher likelihood of breaking up, which in turn may negatively affect child mental health. On the contrary, no evidence is found of causal links between different levels of mother's and father's education on child health, indicating the relevance of potential environmental factors in the intergenerational transmission mechanism. This calls for more co-ordination of educational interventions with other economic policies, also taking economic cycle into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distributed energy system (DES) represents an innovative approach to energy generation and distribution that promotes decentralization and diversification of energy sources. DESs can offer numerous benefits, including increased resiliency, reduced transmission losses, improved efficiency, and lower carbon emissions. The optimal design of a DES requires careful consideration of various factors such as geographical location, climate conditions, and energy demand patterns. This paper utilizes a multi-objective genetic algorithm to optimize the combination of technologies and their corresponding sizes in a distributed energy system for three types of commercial buildings—hospitals, large offices, and large hotels across eight different climate zones in the U.S. A range of technologies are considered for integration into the DES. These technologies include photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, combined heat and power systems, solar thermal collectors, and electrical and thermal energy storage. The two objectives considered are maximizing the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and minimizing the life cycle costs for the DES. The purpose of this study is to optimize and evaluate the multi-objective design of distributed energy systems aimed at decentralizing and diversifying energy sources. The analysis of optimized DES designs across all 24 case scenarios shows that a balance between cost saving and emission reduction has been achieved. Although this study primarily focuses on specific buildings and climate zones, the methods and findings can be adapted for a wider variety of building types across different geographical locations, thus paving the way for more widespread adoption of optimized distributed energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region‐specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well‐known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1-2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we review the theories of business cycles in the 20th century after the work of John Maynard Keynes. Fluctuations in economic activity have been observed with considerable regularity since the beginning of the last century, motivating empirical efforts to, identify, measure, and understand business cycles, contributing to the identification of stylized facts on business cycles, facts the business cycle theories should try to explain. Theories however have been very distinct through the years. Despite the different explanations for the sources of cycles, in mainstream economics, there was the underlying hypothesis of stability and equilibrium as a main characteristic of the economic system. The heterodox view on business cycles, in contrast, starts with Keynes pre-dynamic theory, considering the intrinsic instability of the system and extends through several other authors and theories. In this paper, we use the concepts of equilibrium and instability as a demarcating guide to separate theories in two groups: the mainstream view and the heterodox view. We notice however that, even though different authors and theories might share similar views on the self-equilibrating property of the economic system, there is no coherent integration between similar theories. We conclude the paper with some methodological insights that might lead to a coherent and integrated approach to explain business cycles in the heterodox view, requiring new and complex methods and tools. • Equilibrium and instability as demarcating guide to Business Cycles theories. • Empirical stylized facts on Cycles are to be explained by theories. • In mainstream, cycles are external shocks damped by internal response mechanisms. • The heterodox view instead assumes endogenous instability. • Despite common assumptions, cycle theories have been very distinct. • We propose an integrated heterodox approach under some guiding principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural development in Alberta is a long‐standing challenge, with local communities and economies often stuck between economic cycles, fiscal largesse from the Provincial Government, and a historical pattern of conservative leadership that seeks to leave the private sector unimpeded. As a result, many rural communities now face significant economic, social, political, and ecological challenges that, while not unique to Alberta, are marked by only modest innovation and a tendency to return to previous developmental initiatives. This paper is focused upon identifying the common challenges facing municipal government in the province, but also accounting for the inertial dynamics within municipal politics. Drawing from qualitative data collected from rural municipalities, it seeks to situate contemporary adaptive economic strategies and initiatives within the dominant public ideology of the province. This paper argues that while reform initiatives undertaken in the province broadly align with pragmatic municipalism as a necessary response to decades of neoliberal austerity and inertia, that pragmatism is tempered by a provincial rationality that limits, rather than enhances, the likelihood of meaningful change. This rationality, and its effects, are explained through four fallacies: home rule, agency, the Golden Age, and homogeneity. Key Messages: Albertan municipalities are innovative and pragmatic, and not solely embedded in reducing costs due to budgetary constraints.Provincial governments have a long history of limiting institutional, jurisdictional, or legislative changes that could facilitate municipal sustainability.Choices for municipalities are structured by an institutional inertia that rhetorically emphasizes the autonomy, individualism, responsibility, and accountability of rural municipalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Price dynamics in stock market is modelled by a statistical physics systems: Ising model. A comparative analysis of the historical dynamics of stock returns between the US, UK, and French markets is given. Since the Ising model requires binary inputs, the effect of binarization is studied. Then, using the TAP approximation method, external fields and coupling strengths are calculated. The fluctuation cycles of coupling strengths have a remarkable corresponding relationship with the important period of the financial market. The highlight of this paper is to verify the phase transition can also occur in the stock market and it reveals the transformation of the market state. The numerical solution in this paper is consistent with the exact solution obtained by Lars Onsager. Our findings can help to discover the economic cycles and provide more possibilities for studying financial markets using physical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the port industry is very important in the Korean economy, there are few literature studies that shed light on the macroeconomic implications of the business cycles in this industry. This paper examines the roles played by foreign economic factors in the business cycle in the Korean port industry. Specifically, it aims to estimate the impulse response of the seaborne freight volume in the port industry due to the shocks of the foreign economy and analyze the contributions of each shock considered on the variation in the freight volume. The structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) model was employed to extract the unobserved foreign economic factors. This paper estimates the four foreign economic factors and the parameters of the model using the one-step Bayesian Gibbs sampling method. The findings of this study show that foreign economic activity statistically affects the freight volume of the Korean ports. Specifically, the shocks to the foreign real economic activity increased freight transportation for nearly one year. Following the world inflation shocks, the freight transportation was enhanced. However, this impact disappeared after a year. Similarly, the rise in global liquidity was shown to encourage transportation activity; nevertheless, this activity declined after five quarters. Moreover, the increase in the world interest rates exerted a negative effect on the volume of transportation. Furthermore, the variance decomposition analysis shows that 49.2% of the variation in the transportation volume could be attributed to foreign economic activity. This analysis can contribute to drawing useful implications in establishing the port industry policy in response to the change in the economic environment such as the foreign economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a dynamic equilibrium model of insurance pricing in a competitive market consisting of heterogeneous insurance companies. The insurers have different beliefs on expected loss rate of an underlying risk process and the belief divergences are stochastic. The insurers select optimal insurance market shares to maximize their individual utilities. The equilibrium insurance price is formulated when the insurance market is cleared. We provide a general equilibrium framework with a continuum of insurers in the market and then solve for the equilibrium insurance price explicitly in the case of N insurers. We find that the stochastic heterogeneity brings extra volatility to insurance price and makes it dynamic. The mean-reverting divergences of insurers may explain cycles of insurance business documented by empirical studies. Compared to the previous literature of optimal insurance, this paper introduces an asset pricing framework of general equilibrium to the research of insurance pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances understanding of multiplier-accelerator interaction in European countries in the 21st century. More than eight decades from the contributions of Keynes and Samuelson, multiplier-accelerator interaction has spawned rich and interesting literature. In this study, we examined the relationship between investment, consumption, and economic growth for European Economic Area (EEA) countries, with data observed between 2000 and 2021. We found evidence for both multiplier and accelerator effects. However, for most European economies, the multiplier effect is stronger than the accelerator effect, helping to explain the profile of economic cycles. These results present two emerging policy implications. First, investment made in Europe reacts to the rates of economic growth observed in recent periods. Investment dynamics have long been highlighted as promoters of economic growth and competitiveness. Economic agents use investments to improve their strategic position as agents of long-term socioeconomic development. Second, the estimated effects are not uniform over time; investments react in the same direction as the economic growth observed in the previous years. This nonlinearity of effects obliges all decision-makers to duly anticipate these reactions as well as obliges the academic community to further study the subject. The existence of spatial competition in the distribution of investments leads to strategic behaviours by which competing countries ensure long term national competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the evolution of innovation in the mining sector and how this innovation responds to the economic environment, in particular to changes in commodity prices. For this purpose, we combine commodity price data with innovation data as proxied by patent filings extracted from a novel unit record database containing comprehensive patent and firm-level data for the mining sector from 1970 to 2015. We include patents registered both by mining companies and mining equipment, technology, and service (METS) firms. With a multi-country panel analysis, we find that innovation in the mining sector is cyclical. Innovation increases in periods of high commodity prices while decreasing during commodity price recessions. Our results suggest that innovation increases mostly with long price cycle variations, while mostly unaffected by medium and short cycles. METS-related innovation seem the driving force of this mechanism. In contrast, countries specializing in mining industries are found to be slower in reacting to price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a survey of the recent literature that evaluates, in an empirical way, the distributional impacts of monetary policy. In the first two sessions, we discuss, respectively, the transmission channels of monetary policy to income distribution and the empirical strategies used to measure it. The majority of surveyed papers find that a contractionary monetary policy worsen the income distribution, and that an expansionist policy tends to improve it. Moreover, several papers found that the higher is the redistributive impact of fiscal policy, the lower is the impact of monetary policy on inequality. Another outcome with empirical support is the role of the labor share on total income: the higher is this share, the higher is the impact of monetary policy on inequality. The last point discussed is the asymmetric effects of contractionary and expansionary monetary policy. There is evidence that increases in interest rates have statistically significant effects on income distribution, whereas the effects of reductions in interest rates are not statistically different from zero. This empirical finding goes against the conventional view that the distributional effects of interest rate changes are temporary and likely to net out over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Equity research in experimental psychology reveals investors' overreactions to bad news events. This study of asymmetric price structures in equity markets investigates whether such behavior predicts stock returns in an emerging market of India. Design/methodology/approach: The research decomposes Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex returns into Extremely Positive Returns (EPR) and Extremely Negative Returns (ENR) based on extreme values at first and then tests their lead–lag relations. Findings: The empirical finding is consistent with the existing evidence of asymmetric news effects on stock returns in India. In precise, ENR robustly predicts one-month-ahead EPR for the sample period from January 1991 to March 2020. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables. Practical implications: The paper explains the rationale of extreme value modeling in price forecasting. Investors can find additional utility gains from market cycle information while predicting extreme returns in Indian stock market. Originality/value: The paper is unique to understand business cycle effects in extreme return reversals in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are black swans? And why are mainstream economists so often surprised by financial crises? Furthermore, have supply-side responses to crises merely deepened economic inequality and instability? Rather than simply comparing theories and methods – economics' 'ontological turn' posits that what is foremostly required is an audit of prevailing theories' metaphysical commitments. That is, to interrogate what economics presumes there is to observe, interact with, and know. Seeking to garner greater analytical purchase over the 'real-world', the ontological turn has also birthed several multidisciplinary syntheses – namely, Austrian-materialism (Lewis, P., 2005. Boettke, the Austrian school and the reclamation of reality in modern economics. The Review of Austrian Economics, 18 (1), 83–108.) and Keynesian-critical realism (Lawson, T., 2003. Reorienting economics. New York: Routledge.). Alternatively, and in support of the constructivist claim that social dynamics ultimately drive economics, this paper resituates and extends Wesley Widmaier's (2004) vision of a Keynesian-constructivism within the broader ontological turn. Herein, this paper interrogates the concepts of black swans vis-à-vis post-Keynesian understandings of business cycles, demand-side logics, and Modern Money – en route to establishing new analytical frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the global semiconductor industry has entered a new round of rapid growth, it has also entered a golden cycle of economic growth. Semiconductor companies increase their intrinsic value through financing, industry mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital searches. At the same time, market investors pay more attention to the intrinsic value of companies when looking for good investment targets. Therefore, the systematic risk assessment of the global semiconductor market has become a common concern of market investors and corporate management. In this context, this paper found a method that can assess the systemic risk of the semiconductor global market, which is to use the K-means algorithm based on deep feature fusion. This paper analyzed the algorithm in depth, analyzed the quantum space of tensors, and used the definition of cluster fusion to obtain the relationship between the projection matrices U and V. Experiments were carried out on the improved algorithm, and market research was conducted on a multinational semiconductor company A, which mainly included the basic statistics of the rate of return and the ACF and PACF coefficients of the rate of return series. Finally, the stock risk comparison of company A and company B in the same period was carried out. The experimental results showed that comparing the three items of compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, and active rate coefficient, the highest compound growth rate was 0.41, which came from Category 2, the highest variation coefficient was 2.31, which came from Category 10, and the highest active rate coefficient was 1.78, which came from Category 9. The experimental content was completed well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty reduction is an important driving force for the global realization of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and the building of a global community with a shared future for mankind. This paper takes the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the panel data of 134 countries in the world from 2000 to 2018, this paper uses the difference-in-difference (DID) model to examine the impact of the BRI on poverty reduction in countries along the route and to study its internal mechanism from the dual perspectives of trade openness and investment openness. The results show that (1) the BRI can significantly reduce the incidence of poverty with the impact coefficient stable at −0.26, and the empirical conclusion has passed the parallel test, placebo test, and instrumental variable test; (2) the mediating effect test model shows that the BRI can achieve poverty reduction through the dual openness of trade and investment, and the intermediary effect of trade openness is greater than investment openness; and (3) from the perspective of heterogeneity analysis, geographically, the BRI has a slightly higher role in promoting poverty reduction in landlocked countries than in coastal countries. In terms of economic location, the effect of poverty reduction has a certain "pro-poverty" characteristic, that is, the BRI promotes poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries far more than other types of income countries. Therefore, we believe that the continuous deepening of the BRI high-quality construction and the strengthening of cooperation among countries along the route will play a key role in promoting the international cycle of trade, investment, and other factors, as well as the cause of poverty reduction in the region and the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts the method of the random matrix to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the management of macroeconomic multivariate statistics and regionalization, and to design its management strategy based on a random matrix. A combination of theoretical and applied research, combined with the experience of other cities, is used to study regional economic management using literature analysis, comparative analysis, and deductive induction by summarizing the results achieved in community management, studying its experience, exploring the significance of community management in ETDZs for social development, analyzing the current obstacles and contradictions affecting community management in Suqian ETDZ, and proposing relevant countermeasures for the problems arising therein to enrich the relevant theories and thus promote the level of community management in ETDZs to a higher level. Macroeconomic uncertainty refers to the changes that cannot be accurately observed, analyzed, and foreseen, i.e., the deviation of the expected value of the economy from the actual value. Not all macroeconomic fluctuations belong to the category of macroeconomic uncertainty, only unpredictable economic fluctuations are uncertain. It can be seen from the above that there is a corresponding relationship between the financial income correlation matrix and the random correlation matrix, and both are affected by the same random factors. The importance of uncertainty for macroeconomic policy making is undeniable, and its quantification is a key step. In this paper, we propose an econometric model to eliminate expectations and compare the advantages and disadvantages of different measurement models; we measure a system of fourteen macroeconomic indicators to reflect macroeconomic uncertainty and provide quantitative measurement results for the correct understanding of macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy making. Factor analysis is used to analyze these six comprehensive aspects to obtain the six-dimensional comprehensive scores of each province and city, and the scores are normalized and visualized. Based on a certain understanding of the economic equilibrium structure of each province and city in China, and a certain control of the overall development of each region itself at this stage, the future economic development trend is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: The model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term. Findings: Contrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt. Originality/value: Despite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The short- and long-term volatility of oil and gas prices has a wide-ranging impact on both parties of petroleum contractual agreements, thus affecting the profitability of the project at any stage. Therefore, the government (first party) and the international oil company (second party) set the parameters of their contracts in a way that reduces the uncertainty. The effect of price fluctuations on economic indicators is investigated in this paper. The Taguchi method is used for the first time to find the best-agreement parameters, which are the "A" and "B" factors, in the standard Libyan agreement. There are four "A" components from "A1" to "A4", and four "B" components from "B1" to "B4". The purpose is to reduce the variability in the response variables, which are the company take (the percent of net cash flow for the international company) and average value of the second-party percent share of production (ASPS). The noise factors considered in this paper are oil, liquefied hydrocarbon byproduct (LHP), and gas prices. The method was applied to a case study of oil field development in Libya. The results showed that "A3" and "A4" were the most important control factors that affect the ASPS, while "B2" and "B3" are the most important factors affecting the company take. To obtain robust results, the most important factors to reduce variability were also determined. The effect of control parameters on the average NPV may be worth more than USD 22 MM in the 1-billion-barrel oilfield case study. The results showed that, for a given combination of "A" and "B" factors with a certain company take, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the NPV of the second party was reduced by 18% if the optimal combinations of the levels were used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]