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The goal of reaching the peak of carbon in the construction industry is urgent. However, the research on the feasibility of realizing this goal and the implementation of relevant policies in China is relatively superficial. In view of the historical data of energy consumption and building CO2 emission from 1995 to 2019, this paper establishes a BP neural network model for predicting building CO2 emissions. Moreover, the influencing factors, such as population, GDP, and total construction output, are introduced as the parameters in the model. Through the scenario analysis method explores the practical path to accomplish the peak of building CO2 emissions. When using traditional prediction methods to predict building carbon emissions, the long prediction cycle will increase the possibility of significant errors. Therefore, this paper constructs the calculation model of building carbon emission and forecasts the future carbon emission value through the BP neural network to avoid the error caused by the nonlinear relationship between influencing factors and predicted value. It will effectively predict the feasibility of the carbon peak and the carbon-neutral target set by government, and provide a useful predictive tool for adjusting the new energy structure and formulating related emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The building sector is one of the largest energy user and carbon emitters globally. To increase the utilization rate of renewable energy and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the optimal technical scheme of active public institutions and coupled utilization of renewable energy is studied. In this study, the energy consumption of three types of public institutions in various regions of China was simulated by using DeST building energy consumption software, combined with energy conversion efficiency and data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the total energy demand and total energy supply of public institutions were predicted using the load density method. Based on the coupling mechanism of the MARKAL model, the optimal proportion of renewable energy in the energy supply of public buildings in different regions is determined. Through the study of the number of public institutions in various regions of China, energy consumption characteristics, construction area, and other related data, the reverse energy flow method is creatively proposed, and the active and renewable energy coupling algorithm from the energy demand side of public institutions to the energy supply side is established. The results show that the central region has the highest utilization rate of renewable energy in the public sector, reaching 36.18%. The use of renewable energy in public buildings in hot summer and warm winter zones decreased to 35.08%, and it was 12.82% in cold zones. By 2025, the proportion of renewable energy resources in China is expected to reach 29.2%. The energy coupling model and algorithm constructed in this paper can provide a basis for the coupling macro configuration of renewable energy in public institutions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the emission factor method and LMDI-LEAP model, this paper systematically studies the current situation, influencing factors and changing trend of carbon emissions from rural buildings in a typical village located in southern China. The results showed that (1) the per capita carbon emissions generated by the energy consumption of rural buildings is 2.58 tCO2/a. Carbon emissions from electricity consumption in buildings account for about 96.07%; (2) the per capita building area, building area energy intensity, population size, population structure and carbon emission coefficient affect rural building carbon emissions, with contribution rates of 70.13%, 31.27%, 0.61%, −1.21% and −0.80%, respectively; (3) from 2021 to 2060, the carbon emissions of rural buildings are expected to increase first and then decrease. In 2021, the base year, carbon emissions from buildings were 2755.49 tCO2. The carbon emissions will peak at 5275.5 tCO2. Measures such as controlling the scale of buildings and improving the utilization rate of clean energy can effectively reduce carbon emissions, in which case the peak can be reduced to 4830.06 tCO2. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions about rural building energy saving and emission reduction are proposed, including improving the construction management, raising energy efficiency standards in buildings, increasing the proportion of clean energy and raising residents' awareness of energy conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to achieve China's energy conservation and emission reduction goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, it is of great significance. An important means of building energy conservation and emission reduction is the fine management of building energy consumption, which is based on the accurate prediction of building energy consumption, so as to support the optimal management of building operation and achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper puts forward the evaluation indexes of the results of the building energy consumption prediction model, uses MAPE and RMSE indexes to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction results of the model, and uses the prediction time and input parameter dimensions to evaluate the time cost of the prediction model. Then, using the three building energy consumption prediction models based on machine learning algorithm established above, the prediction of energy consumption of four types of public buildings in different seasons is completed, and the prediction results are evaluated and analyzed. According to the prediction results and the requirements of related work on the accuracy of building energy consumption prediction model, the adaptation relationship between different types of buildings and different machine learning algorithm prediction models is summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a gradual decline in rural population due to urbanization, as of 2022, approximately 35% of China's total population still resides in villages. Over a span of 40 years, carbon emissions from villages have significantly surged, with a sevenfold increase from energy consumption and a 46% rise from agriculture. Consequentially, the development of low-carbon villages is imperative. A comprehensive understanding of the primary sources of carbon emissions in villages is crucial for implementing practical and effective strategies towards low-carbon development. However, limited research has been conducted on quantifying carbon emissions and sinks for Chinese villages. This study aims to address this gap by proposing a methodology for assessing carbon emissions in villages, including the emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. Inspired by the IPCC standard methodology for greenhouse gas emissions at national levels and provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines customized for China's context incorporating localized characteristics, this approach has been applied to seven villages in Northern China based on field investigations. Employing a range of methods including field surveys, questionnaires, statistical records and big-data platforms, we collected the carbon emission activity levels of the seven villages using the most up-to-date carbon emission factors. Subsequently, the collected data and facts are quantitatively processed to generate results that are compared among the seven villages. These findings are also compared with those from other studies. The analysis indicates that the primary industries in these villages significantly influence the total carbon emissions. Moreover, the study reveals that energy consumption in buildings, agriculture, transportation and waste disposal are the most influential emission sources. These findings provide valuable insights into the carbon emission landscape of villages and can serve as a guide for implementing strategies and policies aimed at promoting low-carbon development in the rural areas of Northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to extreme climate change, China has set a goal of reaching emission peak by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Energy conservation and emission reduction of building heating in northern China are key to achieving this goal. Based on building area prediction and energy consumption intensity, this paper establishes a model for calculating heating energy consumption and carbon emissions in northern residential buildings at the macro level, which provides a basis for formulating policies related to heating and emission reduction in northern buildings. Based on the research method of scenario projection, combining the carbon emission subsets and future heating energy mix projections in northern China, the heating energy consumption in northern China decreases to 175, 149 and 135 Mtce in 2050 under the baseline, medium control and strict control scenarios, respectively. The heating energy consumption in the northern region should be controlled at least under the medium control scheme. Under this scenario, building heating carbon emissions in the north could be reduced to 450 MtCO2 by 2050, or 280 MtCO2 if more stringent abatement technologies are adopted. In order to achieve this goal, a combination of energy-saving technologies must be used. The use of biomass and solar technologies should be emphasized in rural heating, while envelope renovation makes the greatest contribution to heating energy savings, with envelope renovation contributing up to 92 Mtce to urban heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since decoration is an essential part of buildings, the carbon emissions generated by decoration work should not be ignored. In recent years, prefabricated decoration has attracted much attention as efforts are made to pursue green, low-carbon, and waste-reducing buildings. However, research on carbon emissions assessment of prefabricated buildings has focused mainly on the structural aspect of prefabricated buildings, with few studies having considered prefabricated decoration. This study therefore focuses on assessing the carbon emissions of prefabricated decoration from the life cycle perspective of a case study residential building and explores the potential for reducing carbon emissions by decorating buildings with prefabricated components. The results show that using prefabricated decoration in the case study building reduced carbon emissions by 29.08% at the building material production stage compared to traditional decoration, and using an optimized design of prefabricated decoration, the building's energy consumption over its design life could reduce carbon emissions by 1046 kgCO2/m2. These findings demonstrate the benefits of prefabrication decoration for reducing carbon emissions. This study provides decoration companies with robust data and insights to guide future decisions and practices, helping to transform and achieve the carbon neutrality goal for the building decoration industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Carbon emissions are explored in China's building operations from provincial perspective. • GDIM is employed to factorize ten affecting factors of CO 2 emissions in building sub-sectors. • CO 2 emissions of building sub-sectors are predicted with dynamic simulation. • The contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed. Carbon emissions from building operations have a critical impact on achieving carbon peaking goal in China. However, the provincial emission performance in building operations are quite different and it is still unidentified how they affect the national emission change and peaking target, making national emission reduction target hard to implement at the provincial level. This paper explores the driving factors leading to emission changes and examines the prospective emission peaks in China and China's provinces by adopting generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) and the combination of scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the regional emission heterogeneity and the contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed to identify regions and provinces that should be focused on emission monitoring. Results show that in China and most Chinese provinces, energy consumption of commercial buildings, energy consumption and floor space of urban residential buildings besides income improvement, and the per capita CO 2 emissions of rural residential buildings contributed greatly to emission growth. Under current policies, commercial and urban residential buildings in most provinces would fail to reach their emission peaks ahead of schedule. The urban residential buildings in the northern region, commercial and rural residential buildings in the eastern region caused higher CO 2 emissions. At the provincial level, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei made the top contribution to total emissions of commercial, urban residential and rural residential buildings, respectively. Shandong and the provinces in north China of urban residential buildings and four provinces including Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Zhejiang of commercial and rural residential buildings had the significant impact on the uncertainty of the peaking time of CO 2 emissions. These findings provide a strong decision-making reference for Chinese government to formulate targeted regional emission reduction policies in building operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• BIM-DB can effectively simulate building performance parameters. • The PSO-RF-NSGA-III hybrid method can be used to predict and optimize building performance. • NSGA can simultaneously optimize energy consumption, carbon emissions and thermal comfort. • The optimal building parameters are different in different regions. Near-zero-energy-consumption buildings (NZEBs) are of great significance for sustainable development, and their design and research have attracted increasing academic attention. To drive and realize the energy saving design and achieve carbon emission and thermal comfort optimization of NZEBs, in this paper, an intelligent optimization method integrating the BIM-DB and PSO-RF-NSGA-III method is established. Multiobjective optimization problems involving NZEBs in four typical climate regions in China are explored. With a typical office building as an example, first, simulation calculations regarding the energy consumption, carbon emissions and indoor thermal comfort in the four climatic regions are performed based on orthogonal tests and BIM-DB. Second, the nonlinear mapping relationships between building design parameters and prediction targets are constructed with the PSO-RF model, which is trained with sample data. The obtained nonlinear mapping relations are used to establish the objective function of NSGA-III, and the multiobjective Pareto-optimal solution set is obtained with the developed PSO-RF-NSGA-III algorithm. Finally, the only optimal solution is determined by using the ideal point method, and reference near-zero-energy-consumption office building parameters are calculated for different climate regions. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The PSO-RF algorithm can efficiently predict building energy consumption, carbon emissions and thermal comfort. In the four regions, the goodness of fit of the three targets is greater than 0.94. (2) Multiobjective optimization can be performed with the proposed RF-NSGA-III intelligent optimization method. After optimizing multiple groups of optimization schemes and adopting energy saving measures, the energy consumption levels in the four climate regions are reduced by 39.72 %, 32.22 %, 26.94 % and 35.37 %, and the other goals are optimized. (3) Index calculations indicate that the optimized building design parameters meet the specified standards for NZEBs, and the main influencing factors and corresponding measures vary from region to region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the tourism industry, hotels and homestay facilities account for considerable amounts of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. Unlike other types of buildings, occupancy has significant fluctuations over time, while mostly being ignored or using a simple assumption based on energy use intensity or setting the occupancy levels. Due to the lack of occupancy rate information, great uncertainties exist in hotel operations, which leads to erroneous estimates of energy consumption in existing hotel buildings. This paper examines hotel operation practices in China with real occupancy rate data which is critical for reducing the uncertainty of estimating energy consumption patterns. Specifically, this study proposes a two-stage comprehensive and quantitative performance assessment approach for the homestay hotel building considering the system's energy and economic performance simultaneously. Regarding energy performance, there are two key facets to consider: renewable energy penetration and grid impact performance. Additionally, the economic performance (annual income and extra annual investment) of various energy portfolios is evaluated using break-even analysis. The impacts of large fluctuation in occupancy rate on electrical loads are considered and assessed in typical homestay hotels. The proposed assessment approach can comprehensively quantify the impacts of the photovoltaics (PV) areas and battery capacities on the system performance in terms of energy and economics. According to the results of the occupancy-based assessment, the ideal PV area and battery capacity are 400 m2 and 16 kWh, respectively, as opposed to the optimal energy portfolios (PV area 600 m2 and battery capacity 24 kWh) determined from conventional assessment results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, in the process of promoting prefabricated buildings, problems such as waste of resources and energy have been present, which have seriously hindered the realization of carbon emission reduction benefits of prefabricated buildings. Especially during the materialization stage of prefabricated buildings which involves the most engineering activities and the most extensive sources of carbon emissions, it is urgent to further meet the low-carbon development of the construction industry. This study takes the 4 substages of design and development, component production, transportation, and installation during the materialization stage as the point of penetration and identifies the carbon reduction impact pathways based on the 3E (Environment-Economy-Energy) system theory in 5 dimensions: government policy, management mode, technology level, economy input, and energy structure. The data are collected through the questionnaire survey, and structural equation modeling (SEM) is utilized to examine the hypothesis and impact dimensions of the study. The results confirm that the management mode has the strongest effects on carbon emission reduction, followed by government policy, economy input, and technology level, and the energy structure has the weakest effects. This study presents the key carbon reduction pathways during the materialization stage of prefabricated buildings and provides recommendations for different participants to optimize policy guidance, strengthen management supervision, accelerate technology research and development, increase economy input, and optimize energy structure, with a view to achieving low-carbon governance capacity, management mode, technology system, capital, and energy utilization, and also enriches the theory in the field of prefabricated buildings carbon emission reduction, which can better achieve low-carbon development of prefabricated buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and become a carbon-neutral society by 2060. The building sector that accounts for over one-third of the total carbon emissions is expected to face a great challenge in helping China achieve this goal. Shenzhen, as a low-carbon pilot city, whether its low-carbon work of urban buildings reaches the target is crucial. An attempt has been made in this study to assess the intensity of carbon emissions and associated reduction efficiency of urban buildings (operation stage) in Shenzhen by using the life cycle assessment method. The results show that the total carbon emissions generated from the buildings' operation stage have increased from 22 million metric tons (Mt) CO 2 eq in 2005 to 42 (±13%) Mt. CO 2 eq in 2019. Carbon emissions mainly result from the buildings' electricity use (79%), followed by refrigerant release emissions (12%). The energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction intensity in Shenzhen is at the middle level in China, and there is considerable space for improvement. According to scenario-based analysis, the carbon emission of the buildings sector can probably reach its peak by 2025 with the implementation of suitable policies – 5 years earlier than national target by 2030. Overall, this study makes a systemic analysis of the characteristics of urban buildings energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction, which can provide supportings for justifying the effectiveness of low-carbon activities in Shenzhen and beyond. • This paper evaluated the emissions reduction of civil buildings in Shenzhen city. • LCA method is employed to quantify the efficiency of emissions reduction. • Public buildings consume more energy per unit area than residential buildings. • Electricity use is the focus of buildings emission, accounting for 79% of the total. • Current efforts cannot meet the ambitious carbon peak and neutrality target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of energy consumption in commercial building operations has hindered the pace of carbon emission reduction in the building sector in China. This study used historical data to model the carbon emissions of commercial building operations, the LASSO regression was applied to estimate the model results, and the whale optimization algorithm was used to optimize the nonlinear parameter. The key findings show the following: (1) The major driving forces of carbon emissions from commercial buildings in China were found to be the population size and energy intensity of carbon emissions, and their elastic coefficients were 0.6346 and 0.2487, respectively. (2) The peak emissions of the commercial building sector were 1264.81 MtCO2, and the peak year was estimated to be 2030. Overall, this study analyzed the historical emission reduction levels and prospective peaks of carbon emissions from China's commercial buildings from a new perspective. The research results are helpful for governments and decision makers to formulate effective emission reduction policies and can also provide references for the low-carbon development of other countries and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]