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China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global problem facing mankind, and achieving peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality is an important task for China to respond to global climate change. The quantitative evaluation of the trends of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions is a premise for achieving this goal. Therefore, from the perspective of urban expansion, this paper analyzes the complex relationship between the mutual interactions and feedback between urban population, land expansion, economic growth, energy structure and carbon emissions. STELLA simulation software is used to establish a system dynamics model of urban-level carbon emissions effects, and Changsha city is used for the case study. The simulated outputs of energy consumption and carbon emissions cover the period from 1949 to 2016. From 1949 to 2016, Changsha's total energy consumption and carbon emissions per capita have continuously grown. The total carbon emissions increased from 0.66 Mt-CO2 to 60.95 Mt-CO2, while the per capita carbon emissions increased from 1.73 t-CO2/10,000 people to 18.3 Mt-CO2/10,000 people. The analysis of the structure of carbon emissions shows that the industrial sector accounted for the largest proportion of emissions, but it had gradually dropped from between 60% and 70% to about 40%. The carbon emissions of residential and commercial services accounted for less than 25%, and the proportion of transportation carbon emissions fluctuated greatly in 2013 and 2016. From the perspective of carbon emissions effects, carbon emissions per unit of GDP had a clear downward trend, from 186.11 t-CO2/CNY104 to 1.33 t-CO2/CNY104, and carbon emissions per unit of land showed two inflection points: one in 1961 and the other in 1996. The general trend showed an increase first, followed by a decrease, then a stabilization. There is a certain linear correlation between the compactness of urban shape and the overall trend of carbon emissions intensity, while the urban shape index has no linear correlation with the growth rate of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions assessment model constructed in this paper can be used by other municipalities, and the assessment results can provide guidance for future energy planning and decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of carbon emissions accelerates global warming and causes environmental problems. Therefore, research on emission peak and carbon neutrality is of broad interest. In this paper, based on the relationships among carbon emissions, carbon absorption and urban population growth, a delayed differential equations model is established. Then, we analyze the existence and stability of a positive equilibrium point of the system and substitute the data for simulations. Eventually, according to theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, some suggestions for China to achieve the goal of emission peak and carbon neutrality are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the promulgation and implementation of China's 'carbon peak' and 'carbon neutrality' policies, the evaluation of the carbon footprint of the domestic catering industry is particularly important. Currently, comparative studies on the life-cycle carbon footprint of different common dining styles, such as home cooking, restaurant dining and takeaway, are scarce. Focused on three dining methods, this paper involved in-depth research on carbon footprint of the whole life cycle from the perspectives of whole industry and specific dish. The carbon footprint contribution of each stage of three different dining ways is obtained from the four stages, namely, the stage of upstream raw materials and manufactures, the stage of platform empowerment, the stage of consumer dining and the stage of waste treatment. The study found that the carbon emissions of the three dining ways in the overall industry analysis were canteen (2.9564 kgCO2e/per person) > takeaway (2.4821 kgCO2e/per person) > home cooking (2.2778 kgCO2e/per person); and the carbon emissions of honey sauce fork-fired were canteen (6.5843 kgCO2e/per person) > home cooking (6.4721 kgCO2e/per person) > takeaway (5.6718 kgCO2e/per person). The production of raw materials and products is the largest stage of carbon emissions among the three dining ways. Besides the carbon emissions of raw materials, the storage and cooking of food products are the unit processes with large carbon emissions. According to the results of sensitivity analysis, traffic travel mode is an important factor affecting the carbon footprint of canteen food. The above research can provide effective basis and data support for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's announcement of its goal of carbon neutrality has increased the practical significance of research on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that result from urbanization. With a comprehensive consideration of population migration in China, this study examines the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012. Two indicators (resident population and household registration population) are used to measure urbanization rate. The results reveal that the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in China is closely correlated with the structure of urban resident population and interregional population migration. The estimation results are still robust by using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. The proportion of temporary residents is introduced as a proxy variable for population migration. The panel threshold model regression results show that the proportion of temporary residents has a marginal effect on the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. In regions with a higher proportion of temporary residents, the positive effects of resident population urbanization on CO2 emissions tend to be weaker. These findings are consistent with the theories of ecological modernization and urban environmental transition. This paper makes suggestions on China's urbanization development model and countermeasures are proposed to minimize the CO2 emissions caused by urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background that China will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, analyzing the impact of carbon neutral target constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents is an important part of the design of a carbon emission reduction policy mechanism, in this paper, the dynamic recursive CGE(Computable general equilibrium) model is used to simulate the changes in welfare level, income consumption, and CO2 emissions of residents and their urban-rural heterogeneity under the policy of imposing a carbon tax on the fossil energy industry from 2022 to 2060. The results show that: compared with the BAU scenario, by 2060, first the income and consumption of residents will decrease slightly. Second, the target constraint of carbon neutrality makes the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban and rural residents' welfare decrease slightly, and the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban residents decrease more than those of rural residents. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the carbon-neutral target constraint makes the welfare of urban and rural residents decline slightly, but it will not have a strong impact on residents' income and consumption. Second, this constraint has a greater impact on the income, consumption and savings of urban residents than those of rural residents. [Display omitted] • A five-layer nested dynamic recursive CGE model is established to analyze residents' welfare. • Carbon taxes are incorporated into production decisions as a policy cost for energy companies. • The heterogeneity of the impact of carbon tax policy constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents was analyzed. • The government needs to improve the intensive and diversified energy supply in rural areas to reduce the urban-rural gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the social context of mitigating climate change and achieving carbon neutrality, the improvement of carbon emissions efficiency and the protection of biological carbon sequestration have emerged as hot topics recently due to their prospects in carbon dioxide emissions reductions. A large volume of studies has identified the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions efficiency. The contributions of our study lied in constructing a system to measure net carbon sink efficiency. Secondly, this study discussed the carbon neutrality performance of Chinese cities from three different aspects of carbon dioxide emissions, carbon sequestration of vegetation and net carbon sink efficiency. Thirdly, this paper identified the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency, and examined the direct and indirect effect of different factors. For this purpose, we evaluated the net carbon sink efficiency of 285 cities in China from 2012 to 2017 using a slacks-based measure model, and explored its spatial distribution characteristics, then employed a spatial Durbin model to explore the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency. Our main findings indicate that the net carbon sink efficiency steadily increased during the study period, whereas their spatial characteristics were "high at both ends and low in the middle" from the south to the north. There is a significant spatial autocorrelation in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. Several kinds of measures can be applied to promote net carbon sink efficiency, such as increasing the proportion of tertiary industry, promoting economic growth, attracting foreign direct investment, increasing road area, promoting technological progress and strengthening environmental regulation. However, the increase of urban population may decrease efficiency. Nevertheless, an obvious spatial spillover effect exists in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. The results can provide policy recommendations for the government to formulate differentiated carbon neutralization policies. [Display omitted] • The carbon sequestration is considered to calculate net carbon sink efficiency (NCSE). • The NCSE is used to discuss the carbon neutral performance of Chinese cities. • Chinese NCSE steadily increased and showed significant spatial autocorrelation. • Spatial Durbin model was adopted to study the influencing factors of NCSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions from civil buildings refer to the carbon emissions generated during the operation of civil buildings. With the continuous development of the urban economy and the improvement of people's living standards, this part of carbon emission puts tremendous pressure on China to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutral. In the context of rapid urbanization, studying the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the carbon emissions from civil buildings have strong practical significance for China to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. Based on the emission data from 104 prefecture-level cities in China, we examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of the civil building carbon emissions from the perspectives of temporal evolution trend, spatial distribution and its dynamic evolution, spatial difference and its decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Finally, we reveal the influencing factors of the carbon emissions from civil buildings using static panel data models and spatial dynamic panel data models. The results of the study show that: (1) During the sample period, the carbon emissions from civil buildings have increased year by year. The civil building carbon emissions have become an important source of China's overall carbon emissions. Realizing energy saving and emission reduction in the operational stage of civil buildings is crucial to realizing China's "dual carbon" goal. (2) According to the estimated results, there is a significant inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between urbanization and civil building carbon emissions. Most Chinese cities are located in the upward part of the inverted U-shaped curve at present. Thus, the traditional economic growth model characterized by high energy consumption and high emission during rapid urbanization should be abandoned to reduce the carbon emissions from civil buildings. (3) Technological progress and fixed asset investment can effectively reduce the carbon emissions from civil buildings. At the same time, the level of marketization and social consumption expenditure positively affect the carbon emissions from civil buildings. It is necessary to improve the relevant market mechanisms, policy subsidies, and other means to encourage the application of green energy-saving technologies in civil buildings. Also, it is needed to guide the urban residents' consumption structure and lifestyle in a low-carbon direction, to reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions during the operation of civil buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]