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China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has set a goal to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China needs to address the challenge of the large and still growing CO2 emission base. This paper investigated the energy consumption and CO2 emission in Beijing from 2020–2035 based on the energy elasticity coefficient and contribution value of the sub-energy increment (CVSI) method. Beijing is one of the first cities in China to propose the "carbon peak" target as of 2020. From 2020 Beijing will strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. The results show that in 2035 the CO2 emission in Beijing may drop to 50% of 2020. This decline would be affected by economic growth, energy efficiency and the proportion of renewable energy use. Beijing's energy supply mainly comes from outside the region. Therefore, for Beijing, in addition to increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources outside the region, its own energy acceptance also needs to be strengthened, including strengthening energy storage construction, actively researching and promoting carbon capture and utilization of gas-fired units, which are effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]