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Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important climate factor for understanding the relationship between the land surface and atmosphere. Furthermore, LST is linked to soil moisture and evapotranspiration, which can potentially alter the severity and regime of wildfires, landslide-triggering precipitation thresholds, and others. In this paper, the monthly daytime and nighttime LST products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are employed for the period 2000–2023 in order to find areas that have been cooling or warming in a region of great interest in Central Italy, due to its complex geological and geomorphological settings and its recent seismic sequences and landslide events. The annual MODIS land cover images for 2001–2022 are also utilized to investigate the interconnection between LST and land cover change. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test and its associated Sen's slope reveal a significant nighttime warming trend in the region, particularly in July, linked to forest and woodland expansion. Grasslands toward the coastline with low elevation (less than 500 m a.s.l.) have experienced significant heat waves during the summer, with an LST of more than 35 °C. A significant negative correlation between the elevation and LST is observed for each calendar month. In particular, the daytime and nighttime LST have more than 80% correlation with elevation during winter and summer, respectively. In addition, nighttime warming and gradual drainage are noticed in Lake Campotosto. The results of this study could be useful for wildfire and landslide susceptibility analyses and hazard management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: This paper presents a procedure for assessing—at the municipal scale—the level of risk (or attention required) of stretches of roads exposed to the activity of existing or potential slow-moving landslides. This procedure can be applied to support studies of road networks over large areas aimed at the prioritization of risk-mitigation measures and the identification of road sections requiring further investigation. Slow-moving landslides are widespread natural hazards that can affect social and economic activities, causing damage to structures and infrastructures. This paper aims at proposing a procedure to analyze road damage induced by slow-moving landslides based on the joint use of landslide susceptibility maps, a road-damage database developed using Google Street View images and ground-displacement measurements derived from the interferometric processing of satellite SAR images. The procedure is applied to the municipalities of Vaglio Basilicata and Trivigno in the Basilicata region (southern Italy) following a matrix-based approach. First, a susceptibility analysis is carried out at the municipal scale, using data from landslide inventories and thematic information available over the entire municipalities. Then, the susceptibility index, the class of movement and the level of damage are calculated for the territorial units corresponding to the road corridors under investigation. Finally, the road networks are divided into stretches, each one characterized by a specific level of risk (or attention required) following the aggregation of the information provided by the performed analyses. The results highlight the importance of integrating all of these different approaches and data for obtaining quantitative information on the spatial and temporal behavior of slow-moving landslides affecting road networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural heritage is one of the most exceptional resources characterizing the Italian territory. Archaeological heritage, i.e., the archaeological sites with different types of archaeological artifacts, strongly contributes to enriching the national and international cultural heritage. Nevertheless, it is constantly exposed to external factors, such as natural deterioration, anthropic impact, and climate-related hazards, which may compromise its conservation. In Italy, many archaeological areas are affected by significant soil settlements that involve a large part of monuments. This paper focuses on the landslide hazard assessment of the archaeological site of Pietrabbondante (Molise region, Italy). The impact of the expected rainfall regimes, according to the EURO-CORDEX projections, on slope stability conditions were evaluated through the application of a physically based model that couples a hydraulic and a mechanical model to evaluate slope stability evolution due to pore pressure changes. Given the unavoidable lack of knowledge of the geotechnical soil properties in an archaeological heritage area, the proposed method considered the random uncertainty of soil parameters by means of a probabilistic approach in order to assess the stability conditions in terms of probability of occurrence of a landslide. The results of this study provide a reference for the safety assessment and preventive conservation of archaeological areas characterized by high cultural value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferability of knowledge from well-investigated areas to a new study region is gaining importance in landslide hazard research. Considering the time-consuming compilation of landslide inventories as a prerequisite for landslide susceptibility mapping, model transferability can be key to making hazard-related information available to stakeholders in a timely manner. In this paper, we compare and combine two important transfer-learning strategies for landslide susceptibility modeling: case-based reasoning (CBR) and domain adaptation (DA). Care-based reasoning gathers knowledge from previous similar situations (source areas) and applies it to solve a new problem (target area). Domain adaptation, which is widely used in computer vision, selects data from a source area that has a similar distribution to the target area. We assess the performances of single- and multiple-source CBR, DA, and CBR–DA strategies to train and combine landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (GAMs) for 10 study areas with various resolutions (1, 10, and 25 m) located in Austria, Ecuador, and Italy. The performance evaluation shows that CBR and combined CBR–DA based on our proposed similarity criterion were able to achieve performances comparable to benchmark models trained in the target area itself. Particularly the CBR strategies yielded favorable results in both single- and multi-source strategies. Although DA tended to have overall lower performances than CBR, it had promising results in scenarios where the source–target similarity was low. We recommend that future transfer-learning research for landslide susceptibility modeling can build on the similarity criterion we used, as it successfully helped to transfer landslide susceptibility models by identifying suitable source regions for model training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the domain of landslide risk science, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is very important, as it helps spatially identify potential landslide-prone regions. This study used a statistical ensemble model (frequency ratio and evidence belief function) and two machine learning (ML) models (random forest and XGBoost; eXtreme Gradient Boosting) for LSM in the province of Belluno (region of Veneto, northeastern Italy). The study investigated the importance of the conditioning factors in predicting landslide occurrences using the mentioned models. In this paper, we evaluated the importance of the conditioning factors in the overall prediction capabilities of the statistical and ML algorithms. By the trial-and-error method, we eliminated the least "important" features by using a common threshold of 0.30 for statistical and 0.03 for ML algorithms. Conclusively, we found that removing the least important features does not impact the overall accuracy of LSM for all three models. Based on the results of our study, the most commonly available features, for example, the topographic features, contributes to comparable results after removing the least important ones, namely the aspect plan and profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), topographic roughness index (TRI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the case of the statistical model and the plan and profile curvature, TWI, and topographic position index (TPI) for ML algorithms. This confirms that the requirement for the important conditioning factor maps can be assessed based on the physiography of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting on 24th August 2016, Central Italy was struck by a six-month earthquake sequence that caused 303 victims and extensive major damages to urban areas and infrastructures, in some cases entire villages needed complete rebuilding. In this paper we present a map that portrays the overall susceptibility to multiple landslide types and the exposure to landslides of the rural-urban areas of the Castelsantangelo sul Nera Municipality, a typical village of the central Italian Apennine. The map is based on a procedure that ingests geomorphological data and models and groups the individual landslide susceptibility maps in a joint susceptibility and exposure map based on expert-defined criteria. The procedure has been applied to built-up and to undeveloped areas to highlight their exposure and was used as a tool for planning post-seismic reconstruction. We advise that such maps are used also as basic tool for ordinary urban planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transferability of knowledge from well-investigated areas to a new study region is gaining importance in landslide hazard research. Considering the time-consuming compilation of landslide inventories as a prerequisite for landslide susceptibility mapping, model transferability can be key to making hazard-related information available to stakeholders in a timely manner. In this paper, we compare and combine two important transfer-learning strategies for landslide susceptibility modelling: case-based reasoning (CBR) and domain adaptation (DA). CBR gathers knowledge from previous similar situations (source areas) and applies it to solve a new problem (target area). DA, which is widely used in computer vision, selects data from a source area that has a similar distribution to the target area. We assess the performances of single- and multiple-source CBR, DA and CBR-DA strategies to train and combine landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (GAMs) for 10 study areas with various resolutions (1 m, 10 m and 25 m) located in Austria, Ecuador, and Italy. The performance evaluation shows that CBR and combined CBR-DA based on our proposed similarity criterion was able to achieve performances comparable to benchmark models trained in the target area itself. Particularly the CBR strategies yielded favourable results in both single- and multi-source strategies. DA tended to have overall lower performances than CBR; yet, it had promising results in scenarios when the source-target similarity was low. We recommend that future transfer learning research for landslide susceptibility modelling can build on the similarity criterion we used, as it successfully helped to achieve landslide susceptibility model transfers by discovering suitable training datasets from various regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the domain of landslide risk science, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) is very important as it helps spatially identify potential landslide-prone regions. This study used a statistical ensemble model (Frequency Ratio and Evidence Belief Function) and two machine learning (ML) models (Random Forest and XG-Boost) for LSM in the Belluno province (Veneto Region, NE Italy). The study investigated the importance of the conditioning factors in predicting landslide occurrences using the mentioned models. In this paper, we evaluated the importance of the conditioning factors (features) in the overall prediction capabilities of the statistical and ML algorithms. By the trial-and-error method, we eliminated the least "important" features by using a common threshold. Conclusively, we found that removing the least "important" features does not impact the overall accuracy of the LSM for all three models. Based on the results of our study, the most commonly available features, for example, the topographic features, contributes to comparable results after removing the least "important" ones. This confirms that the requirement for the important factor maps can be assessed based on the physiography of the region. Based on the analysis of the three models, it was observed that most commonly available feature data can be useful for carrying out LSM at regional scale, eliminating the least available ones in most of the use cases due to data scarcity. Identifying LSMs at regional scale has implications for understanding landslide phenomena in the region and post-event relief measures, planning disaster risk reduction, mitigation, and evaluating potentially affected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events, including the floods in central Europe in May 2021, have highlighted how climate change is giving rise to scenarios that were neither foreseen nor predictable. One problem this poses is the need to rethink the logic of various environmental constraints that are often based on return times of 20-50 years or 100-200. A single event does not change the statistical expectations for the recurrence of the event itself, but the recurrence of several extraordinary events in a few years is a clear indication of a changing trend. The prevention of the effects of such events is based on the definition of the areas at greater or lesser risk specifically based on the return times of the exceptional events, so it is foreseeable that a series of territorial plans, mostly carried out a few decades ago, will have to be updated or re-executed from scratch. These reworkings will be able to take advantage of the opensource software and open spatial data that have become available in the meantime, facilitating the entire process, and making it more open and shareable. In this paper we tested on a real case (the May 1999 pyroclastic flows in Campania, southern Italy) the actual possibility of implementing a model for forecasting such events using only open-source software and open data. It has been demonstrated that the entire process can be carried out using only open-source resources and it has been verified that the predictions of the hazard and risk model obtained with only input data prior to the event, give an output prediction that is significantly coincident with the events that actually occurred as documented by the authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we defined screening maps for Italy that classify sites based on their potential for triggering landslides. To this end, we analyzed seismic hazard maps and hazard disaggregation results on a national scale considering four spectral periods (0.01 s, 0.2 s, 0.5 s, and 1.0 s) and three return periods (475, 975, and 2475 years). First, joint distributions of magnitude ( M ) and distance ( R ) from hazard disaggregation were analyzed by means of an innovative approach based on image processing techniques to find all modal scenarios contributing to the hazard. In order to obtain the M - R scenarios controlling the triggering of earthquake-induced landslides at any computation node, mean and modal M - R pairs were compared to empirical curves defining the M - R bounds associated with landslide triggering. Three types of landslides were considered (i.e., disrupted slides and falls, coherent slides, and lateral spreads and flows). As a result, screening maps for all of Italy showing the potential for triggering landslides based on the level of seismic hazard were obtained. The maps and the related data are freely accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern Apuan Alps (Italy) are prone to rainfall-induced landslides. A first attempt to calculate rainfall thresholds was made in 2006 using non-statistical and repeatable methods for the 1975–2002 period. This research aims to update, validate, and compare the results of that attempt through different statistical approaches. Furthermore, a new dataset of rainfall and landslides from 2008 to 2016 was collected and analyzed by reconstructing the rainfall events via an automatic procedure. To obtain the rainfall thresholds in terms of the duration–intensity relationship, we applied three different statistical methods for the first time in this area: logistic regression (LR), quantile regression (QR), and least-squares linear fit (LSQ). The updated rainfall thresholds, obtained through statistical methods and related to the 1975–2002 dataset, resulted in little difference from the ones obtained with non-statistical methods and have similar efficiency values among themselves. The best one is provided by the LR, with a landslide probability of 0.55 (efficiency of 89.8%). The new rainfall thresholds, calculated by applying the three statistical methods on the dataset from 2008–2016, are similar to the 1975–2002 ones, except for the LR threshold, which exhibits a higher slope. This result confirms the validity of the thresholds obtained with the old database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

San Nicola Island, pertaining to the Tremiti Archipelago (Southern Adriatic Sea, Italy), is widely affected by cliff retreat and gravitational phenomena which severely threaten its monumental historical and natural value. In this study, geomorphological features of the area were derived following a stepwise approach, combining multitemporal stereoscopic aerial photo interpretations with morphometric analyses and detailed field surveys. A rockfall susceptibility map was created following a heuristic approach based on morphometric and geothematic parameters, accounting for slope, slope aspect, outcropping lithologies, structural discontinuities density, distance from landslide scarps, and presence of anthropic caves. Cliff sectors set on dolomitic limestones feature the highest susceptibility values, especially along the southeastern sector; medium values, instead, are found along the island flanks and along scarps located within the inner sectors; and the lowest values are detected on summit tabular surfaces. The achieved results were compared with historical maps and seismic data derived from local and national archives and catalogues, respectively. These analyses allowed us to define the role played by litho-structural and tectonic features on landslide occurrence and distribution, and their interplay in driving landscape evolution over centuries. Finally, this work represents a valuable scientific tool to support geomorphological studies for landslide hazard assessment and proper territorial planning in any other small insular areas, showing similar geological–geomorphological features and landscape values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides triggered by heavy rainfall pose significant threats to human settlements and infrastructure in temperate and equatorial climate regions. This study focuses on the development of the Open Landslide Project (OLP), an open source landslide inventory aimed at facilitating geostatistical analyses and landslide risk management. Using a multidisciplinary approach and open source, multisatellite imagery data, more than 3000 landslides triggered by the extreme rainfall of autumn 2019 in northwestern Italy were systematically mapped. The inventory creation process followed well-defined criteria and underwent rigorous validation to ensure accuracy and reliability. The dataset's suitability was confirmed through multivariate correlation and Double Pareto probably density function. The OLP inventory effectiveness in assessing landslide risks was proved by the development of a landslide susceptibility model using binary logistic regression. The analysis of rainfall and lithology revealed that regions with lower rainfall levels experienced a higher occurrence of landslides compared to areas with higher peak rainfall. This was attributed to the response of the lithological composition to rainfalls. The findings of this research contribute to the understanding and management of landslide risks in anthropized climate regions. The OLP has proven to be a valuable resource for future geostatistical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Italian territory is subject to a high level of hydrogeological instability that periodically results in the loss of lives, buildings and productive activities. Therefore, the recognition of areas susceptible to hydrogeological instability is the basis for preparing countermeasures. In this context, landslide susceptibility in the mid-Adriatic slope was analyzed using a statistical method, the weight of evidence (WoE), which uses information from several independent sources to provide sufficient evidence to predict possible system developments. Only flows, slides, debris flows and mud flows were considered, with a total of 14,927 landslides obtained from the IFFI (Inventory of Franous Phenomena in Italy) database. Seven climatic–environmental factors were used for mapping landslide susceptibility in the study area: slope, aspect, extreme precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), CORINE land cover (CLC), and topographic wetness index (TWI). The introduction of these factors into the model resulted in rasters that allowed calculation by GIS-type software of a susceptibility map. The result was validated by the ROC curve method, using a group of landslides, equal to 20% of the total, not used in the modeling. The performance of the model, i.e., the ability to predict the presence or absence of a landslide movement correctly, was 0.75, indicating a moderately accurate model, which nevertheless appears innovative for two reasons: the first is that it analyzes an inhomogeneous area of more than 9000 km2, which is very large compared to similar analyses, and the second reason is the causal factors used, which have high weights for some classes despite the heterogeneity of the area. This research has enabled the simultaneous introduction of unconventional factors for landslide susceptibility analysis, which, however, could be successfully used at larger scales in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides represent a severe geohazard in many countries. The availability of inventories depicting the spatial and temporal distribution of landslides is crucial for assessing landslide susceptibility and risk for territorial planning or investigating landscape evolution. Nevertheless, these inventories are usually affected by limitations due to their nonpublic availability and inhomogeneities in characterization and mapping. Such problems are fully recognizable by the analysis of the multiple landslide inventories of the Campania region, which is one of the Italian regions with the highest exposure to landslide hazard and risk. On this basis, a revised Landslide Inventory of the Campania region (LaICa), resulting from the processing of multiple existing landslide inventories, has been reconstructed. It aims to (i) provide a new geodatabase that is able to overcome issues derived from the coexistence of multiple inventories and (ii) provide a methodological paradigm able to support the reorganization of existing official inventories. The implication of LaICa, with its 83,284 records, will possibly improve the assessment of landslide susceptibility and then reassess the related risk. Measurement(s) landslide Technology Type(s) Data Set [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steep slopes covered by loose unsaturated pyroclastic deposits widely dispersed in Campania, Southern Italy, are often subjected to shallow landslides that turn into fast debris flows causing a large amount of damage and many casualties, triggered by heavy and persistent precipitation. The slope of Cervinara, located around 40 km northeast of Naples, was involved in a destructive flowslide between 15 and 16 December 1999, triggered by a rain event of 325 mm in 48 h. Hydrometeorological monitoring activities have been carried out near the landslide scarp of 1999 since 2017 to assess the water balance and to identify major hydrological processes involving the cover and the shallow groundwater system developing in the upper part of the underlying limestone fractured bedrock. Since 1 December 2022, a remotely accessible low-cost network has been installed to expand the field hydrological monitoring. The use of a network of low-cost capacitive sensors, communicating within the domain of Internet of Things (IoT) technology, aiming at dispersed monitoring of soil moisture, has been tested. Specifically, the tested prototype network allows measurements of the soil water content at two different points, communicating through a Wi-Fi-based IoT system using ESP32 boards. The ThingSpeakTM IoT platform has been used for remote field data visualization. Based on the obtained results, the prototype of this IoT-based low-cost network shows the potential to expand the amount of hydrological data, suitable for setting up early warning systems in landslide-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are the most frequent and diffuse natural hazards in Italy causing the greatest number of fatalities and damage to urban areas. The integration of natural hazard information and social media data could improve warning systems to enhance the awareness of disaster managers and citizens about emergency events. The news about landslide events in newspapers or crowdsourcing platforms allows fast observation, surveying and classification. Currently, few studies have been produced on the combination of social media data and traditional sensors. This gap indicates that it is unclear how their integration can effectively provide emergency managers with appropriate knowledge. In this work, rainfall, human lives, and earmarked fund data sources were correlated to "landslide news". Analysis was applied to obtain information about temporal (2010–2019) and spatial (regional and warning hydrological zone scale) distribution. The temporal distribution of the data shows a continuous increase from 2015 until 2019 for both landslide and rainfall events. The number of people involved and the amount of earmarked funds do not exhibit any clear trend. The spatial distribution displays good correlation between "landslide news", traditional sensors (e.g., pluviometers) and possible effects in term of fatalities. In addition, the cost of soil protection, in monetary terms, indicates the effects of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Italy is characterized by complex orography. The territorial response to heavy precipitation may activate different processes in terms of hydrogeological hazards. Floods, flash floods, and wet mass movements are the main ground effects triggered by heavy or persistent rainfall. The main aim of this work is to present a unique tool that is based on a distributed hydrological model, able to predict different rainfall-induced phenomena, and essential for the civil protection early warning activity. The Cetemps Hydrological Model is applied to the detection of hydrologically stressed areas over a spatial domain covering the central part of Italy during a weather event that occurred in 2014. The validation of three hydrological stress indices is proposed over a geographical area of approximately 64,500 km2 that includes catchments of varying size and physiography. The indices were used to identify areas subject to floods, flash floods, or landslides. Main results showed very high accuracies (~90%) for all proposed indices, with flood false alarms growing downstream to larger basins, but very close to zero in most cases. The three indices can give complementary information about the predominant phenomenon and are able to distinguish fluvial floods from pluvial floods. Nevertheless, the results were influenced by the presence of artificial reservoirs that regulated flood wave propagation, therefore, indices timing slightly worsen downstream in larger basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research in Umbria, Italy, has shown that landslide susceptibility is controlled by a process called path-dependency, which describes how past landslides control the locations of future landslides. To date, landslide path-dependency has only been characterised in Italy. This raises the question of whether this process occurs in other geomorphic settings, and thus whether path-dependency should be more universally included in landslide susceptibility assessments. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to investigate and quantify landslide path dependency in the Nepal Himalaya. This is achieved by applying several path dependent metrics to three monsoon-triggered landslide inventories for the central-eastern Nepal Himalaya. These inventories were developed at two different spatial and temporal resolutions. As such, we aim not just to quantify landslide path-dependency, but also to assess whether path dependency characteristics are resolution-dependent. We find strong evidence that landslide path dependency is occurring in Nepal, with all three inventories having more overlap between past and new landslides than expected from a random distribution, and a tentative observation that the expected degree of overlap between landslides decreases with time. Finally, whilst path-dependency is observable across both of the investigated inventory resolutions, we find that the rates and magnitudes of the quantified path dependent metrics are sensitive to inventory length, study region size and the size/type of landslides mapped. Overall, our results corroborate the path-dependency observations from Italy, confirming that this process does occur in other geomorphic settings, and thus suggesting that path-dependency should be explicitly and universally considered in landslide susceptibility approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]