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As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of global warming on the southern polar regions necessitates careful monitoring of glacier deformations and their movements, as well as an understanding of atmospheric physics. For this purpose, the yearly movements of UNAVCO stations-South Pole Station (AMU2) (winter-summer) and other stations in the South Pole region have been observed in this paper for about a fifteen-year period (2006–2021). In addition, the area differences of the Antarctic continent due to seasonal changes (winter-summer) between 1980 and 2021 were investigated in this study. Moreover, the height values of the stations on the Antarctic continent were observed seasonally. The subglacial lakes in the Antarctic continent cause the differences in the height values as a result of the seasonal changes. A decrease in sea ice of 0.91 million km² for the winter season and 0.55 million km² for the summer season during a 41-year period has been determined for four sectors of the Antarctic continent. The temperature changes on the Antarctic continent in the summer and winter seasons (2005–2022) were also evaluated in this paper. Air temperature increases was apparent especially in the Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctic and West Antarctic coasts. The Weddell Sea and the Amundsen Sea regions have had the most sea ice loss, each with 1.24 million km². On the other hand, it can be observed that the East Antarctic sector has expanded by 0.32 million km². [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The periods of warming and cooling of the weather on Earth followed one another with great irregularity and caused significant variations in air temperature but allowed the existence of life and especially of the human species. In this paper we have analysed the variation of air temperature in Oltenia in the period 1961-2021. A number of our other works have analysed the variability of the climate in this part of Romania. After the warm period of 1945-1955, a gradual cooling of the weather followed in summers and during the period 1966-1984 (for 20 years). In summers, no thermal maximum of ≥40°C was registered. The period 2000-2021 (22 years) was the warmest of all the meteorological observations in Oltenia and many annual, monthly and daily climate records were surpassed. At the same time, during the analysed interval, the melting rate of the ice in the polar areas intensified a lot and exceptional thermal maxima were registered. The heat waves during the summers were more and more intense, more frequent and longer in duration. The paper is useful to all those interested in climate variability in Oltenia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melting polar and alpine ice sheets in response to global warming pose ecological and societal risks but will also hamper our ability to reconstruct past climate and atmospheric composition across the globe. Since polar ice caps are crucial environmental archives but highly sensitive to ongoing climate warming, the Arctic and Antarctic research community is increasingly faced with melt-affected ice cores, which are already common in alpine settings of the lower latitudes. Here, we review the characteristics and effects of near-surface melting on ice-core records, focusing on a polar readership and making recommendations for melt-prone study regions. This review first covers melt layer formation, identification and quantification of melt, and structural characteristics of melt features. Subsequently, it discusses effects of melting on records of chemical impurities, i.e. major ions, trace elements, black carbon, and organic species as well as stable water isotopic signatures, gas records, and applications of melt layers as environmental proxies. Melting occurs during positive surface energy balance events, which are shaped by global to local meteorological forcing, regional orography, glacier surface conditions and subsurface characteristics. Meltwater flow ranges from homogeneous wetting to spatially heterogeneous preferential flow paths and is determined by temperature, thermal conductivity and stratigraphy of the snowpack. Melt layers and lenses are the most common consequent features in ice cores and are usually recorded manually or using line scanning. Chemical ice-core proxy records of water-soluble species are generally less preserved than insoluble particles such as black carbon or mineral dust due to their strong elution behaviour during percolation. However, high solubility in ice as observed for ions like F - , Cl - , NH 4+ or ultra-trace elements can counteract the high mobility of these species due to burial in the ice interior. Stable water isotope records like δ18 O are often preserved but appear smoothed if significant amounts of meltwater are involved. Melt-affected ice cores are further faced with questions about the permeability of the firn column for gas movement, and gas concentrations can be increased through dissolution and in situ production. Noble gas ratios can be useful tools for identifying melt-affected profile sections in deep ice. Despite challenges for ice-core climate reconstruction based on chemical records, melt layers are a proxy of warm temperatures above freezing, which is most sensitive in the dry snow and percolation zone. Bringing together insights from snow physics, firn hydrology, and ice-core proxy research, we aim to foster a more comprehensive understanding of ice cores as climate and environmental archives, provide a reference on how to approach melt-affected records, and raise awareness of the limitations and potential of melt layers in ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of - 144 ± 27 Gt a -1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE ;). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a -1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of - 0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid warming and human exploitation threaten boreal forests. Understanding links among vegetation, climate, and people in this vast biome requires highly resolved long‐term records that integrate regional inputs. We developed an 850‐year pollen‐based record of supraregional vegetation change using a southern Greenland ice core and atmospheric modeling that identified the boreal and mixed‐conifer forests of eastern Canada as the dominant pollen source regions. Conifer pollen increased ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice Age. A subsequent decline began ∼1650 CE and a statistically significant pollen change after 1760 CE suggests ecological consequences of the Little Ice Age cooling and initial human exploitation that persisted until recent decades. These supraregional changes are broadly consistent with local records and demonstrate intensification of human impacts on northern forests, suggesting a shift from a climate‐modulated to an increasingly human‐controlled system during recent centuries. Plain Language Summary: Understanding the consequences of climate warming and human exploitation for northern forests requires long‐term regional records of this sparsely populated region. We present a first 850‐year vegetation record from a low‐elevation ice core in Southern Greenland. The ice core integrates pollen from Eastern Canadian forests and other boreal forests, providing temporal precision and regional coverage not available from previous paleoecological investigations. We show that climate change drove changes in the abundances of coniferous species during the Little Ice Age. Subsequent warming coincided with the onset of timber exploitation that brought a shift from a climate‐controlled to an increasingly human‐controlled system. Current warming trends likely will further alter vegetation distribution, productivity, and disturbance regimes of northern forests, but they will be moderated by the legacy of human impacts. Key Points: Atmospheric model FLEXPART identifies boreal and mixed‐conifer forests in Canada as pollen source area for Southern Greenland ice corePollen in Greenland ice track conifer pollen increases ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice AgeConifer pollen declines ∼1650 CE coincident with cold LIA climate and initial commercial forest exploitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Holocene (MH) is the most recent typical climate period and a subject of great interest in global paleocultural research. Following the latest Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4) protocol and using a fully coupled climate model, we simulated the climate during both the MH and the preindustrial (PI) periods and quantified the effects of Earth orbital parameters (ORBs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on climate differences, focusing on the simulated differences in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between these two periods. Compared to the PI simulation, the ORB effect in the MH simulation led to seasonal enhancement of temperature, consistent with previous findings. In the MH simulation, the ORB effect led to a markedly warmer climate in the mid–high latitudes and increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, which were partially offset by the cooling effect of the lower GHGs. The AMOC in the MH simulation was about 4 % stronger than that in the PI simulation. The ORB effect led to 6 % enhancement of the AMOC in the MH simulation, which was, however, partly neutralized by the GHG effect. Transient simulation from the MH to the PI further demonstrated the opposite effects of ORBs and GHGs on the evolution of the AMOC during the past 6000 years. The simulated stronger AMOC in the MH was mainly due to the thinner sea ice in the polar oceans caused by the ORB effect, which reduced the freshwater flux export to the subpolar Atlantic and resulted in a more saline North Atlantic. This study may help us quantitatively understand the roles of different external forcing factors in Earth's climate evolution since the MH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate feedbacks between subsurface continental shelf ocean temperatures and Antarctic glacial melt using a coupled climate model. The model was forced with SSP5‐8.5 and an uncoupled projection of basal melt and calving fluxes. SSP5‐8.5 forcing with fixed pre‐industrial glacial melt warms all continental shelves, such that historically "cool" and "fresh" shelves transition to "warm." Additional glacial melt, added at depth, cools the Eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen seas, suggesting a negative feedback on basal melt—a novel result for a coarse resolution coupled model. From the Weddell Sea, along East Antarctica, and into the western Ross Sea—where continental shelves transition to a "warm" state—additional glacial melt increases temperatures at the continental shelf sea floor, suggesting a positive feedback. The sign of the glacial melt–subsurface temperature feedback is critically dependent on continental shelf properties, climate state, and the vertical distribution of glacial melt inputs. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic ice shelves lose mass as freshwater—primarily from melting at their base and when icebergs break off. We know that the rate at which Antarctic ice shelves are losing mass is increasing and we expect this freshwater input into the ocean to increase further in a warmer world. Most climate models do not include a representation of this changing freshwater input, and its climatic impacts are uncertain. One particularly important climate impact is how the additional freshwater changes the subsurface ocean temperature. If freshwater warms/cools the coastal ocean it could increase/decrease melt in a positive/negative feedback loop. But existing studies disagree about this effect and even about the sign of the feedback. We added a timeseries of freshwater input to a climate model and ran experiments with strong climate warming to investigate this feedback. The sign of the feedback varies by region. Where climate change drives a cold coastal ocean to transition to a new warmer state, we find that freshwater causes a strong additional warming (a positive feedback). Where the coastal ocean is already warm in the present day and warms in future, freshwater reduces this warming (a negative feedback). To achieve the negative feedback freshwater must be added at depth. Key Points: A glacial melt projection is added to a 1° coupled climate model under SSP5‐8.5 to investigate ocean temperature feedbacksAdditional glacial melt cools the Eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen seas at depth, but warms elsewhereThe addition of glacial melt at depth is necessary to generate the cooling response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melting is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica and is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melting. Enhanced surface melt will impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, the current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in terms of the uncertainties in quantifying surface melt and understanding the driving processes of surface melt in past, present and future contexts. Here, we construct a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed positive degree-day (PDD) model, forced with 2 m air temperature reanalysis data and spatially parameterized by minimizing the error with respect to satellite estimates and surface energy balance (SEB) model outputs on each computing cell over the period 1979 to 2022. We evaluate the PDD model by performing a goodness-of-fit test and cross-validation. We assess the accuracy of our parameterization method, based on the performance of the PDD model when considering all computing cells as a whole, independently of the time window chosen for parameterization. We conduct a sensitivity experiment by adding ±10 % to the training data (satellite estimates and SEB model outputs) used for PDD parameterization and a sensitivity experiment by adding constant temperature perturbations (+1 , +2 , +3 , +4 and +5 ∘ C) to the 2 m air temperature field to force the PDD model. We find that the PDD melt extent and amounts change analogously to the variations in the training data with steady statistically significant correlations and that the PDD melt amounts increase nonlinearly with the temperature perturbations, demonstrating the consistency of our parameterization and the applicability of the PDD model to warmer climate scenarios. Within the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few ice cores from the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) extend back in time further than a few hundred years. The WAIS is believed to be susceptible to collapse as a result of anthropogenic climate change and may have at least partially collapsed during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Understanding the stability of the WAIS during warm periods such as the LIG and Holocene is important. As part of the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project, the British Antarctic Survey's (BAS) Rapid Access Isotope Drill (RAID) was deployed in 2020 on Sherman Island in the Abbot Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. We drilled a 323 m deep borehole, with discrete samples of ice chippings collected that cover the entire depth range of the drilled ice. The samples were analysed for stable water isotope composition and major ion content at BAS from 2020–2022. Using annual layer counting of chemical records, volcanic horizon identification and ice modelling, an age scale for the record of 1724 discrete samples is presented. The Sherman Island ice record extends back to greater than 1240 years, providing the oldest, continuous ice-derived palaeoclimate records in the coastal Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea sectors to date. We demonstrate the potential for recovery of a complete Holocene climate record from Sherman Island in the future and confidence in the ability of RAID samples to contain sufficiently resolved records for meaningful climatic interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of global warming, the area of the polar pack ice is diminishing, making merchant travel more practical. Even if Arctic ice thickness reduced in the summer, fractured ice is still presenting operational risks to the future navigation. The intricate process of ship-ice interaction includes stochastic ice loading on the vessel hull. In order to properly construct a vessel, the severe bow forces that arise must be accurately anticipated using statistical extrapolation techniques. This study examines the severe bow forces that an oil tanker encounters when sailing in the Arctic Ocean. Two stages are taken in the analysis. Then, using the FEM program ANSYS/LS-DYNA, the oil tanker bow force distribution is estimated. Second, in order to estimate the bow force levels connected with extended return periods, the average conditional exceedance rate approach is used to anticipate severe bow forces. The vessel's itinerary was planned to take advantage of the weaker ice. As a result, the Arctic Ocean passage took a meandering route rather than a linear one. As a result, the ship route data that was investigated was inaccurate with regard to the ice thickness data encountered by a vessel yet skewed with regard to the ice thickness distribution in the region. This research intends to demonstrate the effective application of an exact reliability approach to an oil tanker with severe bow forces on a particular route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonlinear trends (i.e. quadratic trends, usually defined as accelerations) in Antarctic ice mass loss due primarily to the complex climate warming forcing regimes have induced large uncertainty to future sea level projection. Here, we quantify the nonlinear and spatially varying mass losses in the Antarctic ice sheet during the last two decades using the satellite gravimetry data collected by Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor GRACE Follow-On. We use a regional inversion methodology to generate the mass change time-series over Antarctica. Our findings reveal that seven regions have evidenced significant nonlinear mass change. These regions are all concentrated along the coast of Antarctica and show spatially heterogeneous mass balance nonlinear trend patterns. Among them, the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) and the Dronning Maud Land (DML) are found to be particularly sensitive to short-term climate variability. The GRACE-inferred nonlinear mass balance signal can be confirmed by independent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations, and the difference between the nonlinear vertical deformation trends estimated by GRACE and GPS, especially in ASE, is likely due to the imperfect correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect. For Antarctic ice sheet as a whole, GRACE satellite gravimetry indicates an ice mass loss of −101.3 ± 18.0 Gt yr−1, with an accelerated loss of −6.4 ± 1.3 Gt yr−2 during 2002–2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several large‐scale components of the climate system may undergo a rapid transition as critical conditions are exceeded. These tipping elements are also dynamically coupled, allowing for a global domino effect under global warming. Here we focus on such cascading events involving the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), the West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Using a conceptual model, we study the combined tipping behavior due to three dominant feedbacks: the marine ice sheet instability for the WAIS, the height‐surface mass balance feedback for the GIS and the salt‐advection feedback for the AMOC. We show that, in a realistic parameter range of the model, a tipping of the WAIS can inhibit cascading events by preserving the AMOC stability. Plain Language Summary: In the climate system, the interaction of specific components known as tipping elements are thought to be able to induce a global domino effect, or cascading tipping. In this study, we present a conceptual model containing the most strongly interacting components, namely the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctica Ice Sheet. We find that the stability of this system as a whole is strongly modified when interactions are included. Especially, while a Greenland Ice Sheet collapse destabilizes the AMOC, the model shows that a collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet might prevent a global cascading event by stabilizing the AMOC. Key Points: A conceptual model of interacting Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Greenland Ice Sheet and West Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) is presentedInteractions between these tipping elements strongly modifies the stability of the whole systemA collapse of the WAIS can prevent tipping of the AMOC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar sea ice is one of the Earth's climate components that has been significantly affected by the recent trend of global warming. While the sea ice area in the Arctic has been decreasing at a rate of about 4 % per decade, the multi-year ice (MYI), also called perennial ice, is decreasing at a faster rate of 10 %–15 % per decade. On the other hand, the sea ice area in the Antarctic region was slowly increasing at a rate of about 1.5 % per decade until 2014, and since then it has fluctuated without a clear trend. However, no data about ice type areas are available from that region, particularly for MYI. Due to differences in the physical and crystalline structural properties of sea ice and snow between the two polar regions, it has become difficult to identify ice types in the Antarctic. Until recently,no satellite retrieval scheme was ready to monitor the distribution and temporal development of Antarctic ice types, particularly MYI, throughout the freezing season and on timescales of several years. In this study, we have adapted a method for retrieving Arctic sea ice types and partial concentrations using microwave satellite observations to fit the Antarctic sea ice conditions. The core of the retrieval method is a mathematical scheme that needs empirical distributions of the microwave brightness temperature and backscatter input parameters for the different ice types. The first circumpolar, long-term time series of Antarctic sea ice types (MYI, first-year ice, and young ice) is being established, and so far covers the years 2013–2021. Qualitative comparison with (a) synthetic aperture radar data, (b) charts of the development stage of the sea ice, and (c) the Antarctic polynya distribution data show that the retrieved ice types, in particular the MYI, are reasonable. Although there are still some shortcomings, the new retrieval allows insight into the interannual evolution and dynamics of Antarctic sea ice types for the first time. The current time series can in principle be extended backwards to start in the year 2002 and can be continued with current and future sensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming will soon reach the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C/2°C temperature increase above pre‐industrial levels. Under a business‐as‐usual scenario, the time to reach these targets varies widely among climate models. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6, we show that a 2°C global warming is determined by Southern Ocean (SO) state closely tied with a low‐level cloud (LLC) amount feedback strength during reference (1861–1900) period; climate models with cold SO tend to accompany more low‐level cloudiness and Antarctic sea ice concentration due to a strong LLC amount feedback. Consequently, initially cold SO models tend to simulate a fast global warming by absorbing more downward shortwave radiation compared to initially warm SO models because more LLC disappears due to a strong LLC amount feedback during the 2°C rise. Our results demonstrate that climate models that correctly simulate initial SO state can improve 2°C warming projections with reduced uncertainties. Plain Language Summary: In December 2015 at Paris, United Nations agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre‐industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. It naturally leads to a question as to when these targets will reach. However, under a business‐as‐usual scenario, the time to reach these targets varies widely among climate models. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6, we show that a 2°C global warming is closely related to the late 19th century condition of Southern Ocean (SO) state such that the initially cold SO climate models actually produced fast warming rate and vice versa. This is because these initially cold SO climate models that mostly accompany more low‐level cloudiness and Antarctic sea ice concentration, could actually absorb more downward shortwave radiation by reducing cloudiness and sea‐ice during a warming progress compared to initially warm SO models. Finally, our results demonstrate that climate models that correctly simulate initial SO state can improve 2°C warming projections with reduced uncertainties. Key Points: Inter‐model diversity of the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C/2°C warming is considerable in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project type climate modelsA 2°C global warming is determined by Southern Ocean (SO) state closely tied with a low‐level cloud (LLC) amount feedback strength during the reference periodClimate models with cold SO tend to accompany more low‐level cloudiness and Antarctic SIC due to a strong LLC amount feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is low confidence in projections of Antarctic sea ice area (SIA), due to deficiencies in climate model sea ice processes. Ensemble regression techniques can help to reduce this uncertainty. We investigate relationships between SIA climatology and 21st century change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐model ensemble. In summer, under a strong forcing scenario, each model loses the majority of its sea ice. Therefore, models with greater historical SIA exhibit greater reductions, so the observed climatology of SIA strongly constrains projections. Ensemble spread in historical summer SIA is smaller than in CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5), and CMIP6 gives a more robust constraint on future SIA. In winter, by 2100 under a strong forcing scenario, 40% of SIA disappears on average, and ensemble spread in historical mean SIA explains approximately half the spread in projected change. A greater winter ice loss in CMIP6 than CMIP5 is explained by the higher climate sensitivities of some CMIP6 models. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic sea ice area is important for ecosystems, human activity, and for the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean. However, major climate change assessments such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report have placed little confidence in projections of Antarctic sea ice area. This is because climate models struggle to simulate many aspects of sea ice area as observed by satellites. However, not all models should be treated equally. Models with relatively more sea ice area in the recent past project greater losses in the future, especially in summer. This suggests that models with historical sea ice area closest to what we have observed may be more reliable in their future simulations. We use this information in a simple statistical model to show that, firstly, the newest climate models largely show near‐total sea ice loss in summer by the end of the 21st century, which was not universally true for older climate models. Secondly, newer climate models lose more winter sea ice than their predecessors in the same time period, which is related to the known greater global warming response to given greenhouse gas concentrations in the newer models. Key Points: We compare Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 5 and the CMIP, phase 6 (CMIP6) projections of Antarctic sea ice loss, assessing drivers of uncertainty and the robustness of projectionsUnder strong forcing, CMIP6 models lose most Antarctic summer sea ice by 2100, so projections are constrained by historical climatologyIncreased winter sea ice loss in CMIP6 is related to increased equilibrium climate sensitivity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyse the possible consequences using the parallel ice sheet model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice mélange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding-line retreat and triggers marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyse marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constrained parameter that determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound of the calving rate, which is given by the ice mélange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Because the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-mélange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Polar regions are more sensitive to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration than the rest of the world. This phenomenon is known as the Polar Amplification and is related to many nonlinear, complex coupled ocean-atmosphere processes with effects beyond high latitudes. Aiming to account for the Polar Amplification, this study used global climate simulations to investigate the effects of three different global warming thresholds (1.5, 2 and 3 °C) in the warming and sea ice conditions of both poles. Our results shown high climate sensitivity in the Arctic and Antarctica as a response to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The warming signal is not symmetric in the two poles: the Arctic warms faster than Antarctica in all climate scenarios. Global warming crosses the minimum (maximum) future scenarios thresholds of +1.5 °C (+3 °C) around 2024 (2063). The equivalent Arctic (Antarctic) warming for these years is 3.6 (1.5) °C and (3.2) 6.6 °C, respectively. Although limited, Global Climate models used here are important tools to help on better understand the projected effects of climate change in high latitudes. One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]