Search

The establishment of the green belt and road is an inevitable choice to conform to and lead the green and low-carbon cycle development and an inherent requirement for sustainable development. Therefore, we establish an evaluation system of green development oriented to carbon neutrality, and calculate the green development level (GDL) of the provinces along the belt and road in China from 2003 to 2018 by using a three-dimensional evaluation model. In addition, this paper employs the Obstacle Degree Model to identify the main obstacle factors that affect GDL, and provides targeted and differentiated countermeasures and suggestions for improving the regional GDL. Our results suggested that the overall GDL has improved, but not obvious, with a low level. The GDL and coordination degree between different regions exist certain differences, and its spatial pattern is characterized by "high in southeast and northeast, low in southwest and northwest". From a regional perspective, innovation capacity is the key factor that affects the green development of the region in southeast, northeast, northwest and southwest China. Driving economic green transformation and promoting industrial energy conservation and emission reduction through technological innovation are the internal driving forces to achieve regional green sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has set an ambitious national determined contributions target to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 and aims to be carbon neutral by 2060. One of China's top energy consumers and CO 2 contributors, the steel industry accounts for 13% of the country's total consumption and 15% of CO 2 emissions. In response to the present global warming trend, there is an urgent need to cut energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to promote low-carbon growth. This paper attempts to provide a detailed analysis of the steel industry's CO 2 emission reduction path to carbon neutrality. Further efforts in terms of industrial structure, material efficiency, energy efficiency, and low- or zero-carbon technologies are required to achieve a low-carbon transition. Given that decarbonization is a significant priority in the steel industry in many countries, this study focuses on the goals and technological paths of low-carbon emissions projects to optimize existing technology priorities and propose development directions. Deep decarbonization is also projected to be achieved by combining CCUS and hydrogen metallurgy technologies. The steel industry requires collaborative efforts to standardize CO 2 emission accounting methodologies and establish a carbon trading system to strengthen carbon emission management. • The steel industry is one of the key contributors to carbon neutrality which needs to accelerate decarbonization. • Reducing energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to keep up with the current global warming trend are reviewed. • This paper selects low-carbon emission projects to optimize current technology priorities and provide development directions. • Policy recommendations and next steps for low-carbon transition are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading, a market-incentive environmental regulation, plays a critical role in leading China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To improve the national carbon emission trading in China, we analyze the effects of the policy in pilot provinces and pilot A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2016. Particularly, to explore the pilot policy's environmental and financial impacts, this paper applies a difference-in-difference method. After the robustness check, the results confirm the carbon emission trading pilot's significantly positive impact at both firm- and province-level regarding carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, corporate innovation seems to partially mediate the relationship between the policy and corporate carbon emission reduction. Plus, the policy promotes firms' market-based financial performance but such impact on accounting-based financial performance is insignificant. Ultimately, the operational mechanism of the policy is proved to be effective. In this paper, industry- and firm-level carbon emissions databases are established via environmental extended input-output table, which fill the research gap of China's firm-level carbon emissions. To ensure the reliability of results, the list of covered firms is sorted out manually in accordance with the disclosed data of seven carbon trading markets. Our results are meaningful for avoid productivity reduction and mechanism re-design in the context of the national carbon emission trading launched in 2021. Specifically, encouraging firms to further improve their productivity and competitiveness by innovation could eventually achieve a win-win situation between economic performance and environmental merits in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for China to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. This paper separately adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique and the Mean Impact Value (MIV) method to analyze the impact of driving factors on the CO 2 emissions of ISI in the historical and future dimensions. Furthermore, this paper establishes the extreme learning machine model optimized by the bat algorithm (BA-BP) to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of ISI in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the low-speed, medium-speed and high-speed development scenarios considering the constraints of carbon neutrality targets. The results reveal that: (1) Production capacity and energy efficiency are important drivers of CO 2 emissions in ISI; (2) The emission reduction situation is not optimistic under the BAU scenario, and it is difficult to accomplish the carbon neutrality goals by 2060; (3) Under the most ideal emission reduction pathway (corresponding to the high-speed development scenario), ISI will reach its peak in 2022 with the peak value of 2143.42 MtCO 2. Compared to the peak year, the CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 654.69 MtCO 2 and 1558.61 MtCO 2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, the achievement of short-term and long-term emission reduction targets depends on production capacity decline and technological progress, respectively. The optimal emission reduction pathway provides a reference for ISI to formulate periodic emission reduction targets. • The improved extreme learning machine is employed to predict the carbon emissions. • The emission reduction pathways are explored under the carbon neutrality target. • Controlling production capacity is a crucial reduction strategy. • The energy rebound effect is supposed to be weakened. • The application of advanced technologies will greatly promote emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the first to propose the deployment of direct air capture (DAC) systems at large airports to provide solutions for achieving carbon neutrality in aviation transportation. Here, an estimating model for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the landing and take-off (LTO) phase of large airports was developed, and the suitability of deploying DAC systems at airports was evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This study found that the annual CO2 emissions of 52 large airports in the LTO phase are about 23 Mt, accounting for about 23% of the total CO2 emissions of civil aviation in China. The four dimensions of airport transportation conditions, meteorological conditions, space resources, and security levels had a decreasing impact on the deployment of DAC systems in that order. The airports with suitable DAC systems are mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Airport Cluster. This study provides a theoretical basis for the deployment of DAC systems at airports, which provides new CO2 emission reduction solutions for the aviation transportation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality and improve emission reduction efficiency, capturing carbon dioxide from the air on a large scale and promoting the application and innovation of carbon capture technology (CCUS) are the most important goals. This study undertakes an annual and comprehensive evaluation of the policy and the technological innovation efficiency (TIE) of 10 listed companies in China using the DEA model and the Malmquist index analysis method. The number of relevant laws and policies is significant, but they are not well coordinated. The static evaluation results indicate that the complete factor production rate is low, generally lower than 0.9, and the technical innovation efficiency is weak, mainly because of technological backwardness. The dynamic evaluation results indicate that the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) each year are primarily affected by changes in technological progress. This suggests that most domestic enterprises are still exploring technological innovation (TI) and operational business models. Finally, this study proposes measures to improve the TIE of carbon capture technology enterprises in China, including giving full play to the role of the government, expanding effective investment, and improving innovational ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is an indispensable part of the carbon removal technologies to achieve carbon neutrality for China. Our study focuses on China's CCUS pathways, and draws out three key conclusions: (1) in terms of the greenhouse gases emission reductions required to achieve carbon neutrality and based on current technology projections, the CO2 emission reductions to be achieved by CCUS are 0.6 ∼ 1.4 billion tonnes and 1 ∼ 1.8 billion tonnes in 2050 and 2060, respectively; (2) from the perspective of source-sink matching in China, the emission reduction potential provided by CCUS can basically meet the demand of carbon neutrality target (0.6 ∼ 2.1 billion tonnes of CO2); (3) with the development of technologies, the cost of CCUS in China has a great potential to be reduced in the future. It is expected that by 2030, the technical cost of the whole CCUS process (according to 250 kilometers transportation) in China will be 310 ∼ 770 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2, and by 2060, it will gradually drop to 140 ∼ 410 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influencing factors of carbon prices in China's carbon market are analysed. • The influencing factors and historical data are combined to predict the carbon price. • The EEMD-BP-ELM model and the CHINAGEM-E model are constructed and combined. Carbon price is one of the core indicators of the carbon market. Making accurate predictions of carbon prices based on insight into the volatility characteristics of the carbon market will not only provide a scientific basis for investors and regulators to make decisions and greatly promote emission reduction, but also effectively promote the healthy development of the carbon financial market. Based on the historical carbon price data of the national carbon market, this paper constructs the EEMD-BP-ELM model to predict the high and low frequency components of China's future carbon price. On this basis, according to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, the CHINAGEM-E model is used to predict the trend component of the carbon price under the baseline and the 2060 carbon neutral scenarios. Finally, the trend component is combined with the high and low frequency components to obtain the price range from 2022 to 2060. We find that under the baseline scenario, China's carbon price range in 2060 is [343, 785] CNY/tCO2, while under the 2060 carbon neutral scenario, this price range is [1543, 3531] CNY/tCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Constructing a new welfare function considering economy, equity and ecology. • Optimizing carbon emission pathways from multiple perspectives. • Focusing on the emission pathways in China achieving the ambitious targets. With the increasing climate warming, reducing carbon emissions has gradually become a consensus around the world. However, the process of carbon emission reduction will inevitably lead to the transformation of economic structure, industrial structure and energy structure, which will bring huge changes in economic output, employment and other aspects, thus affecting the overall social welfare and equity. Therefore, it is particularly important for each country to determine a scientific and effective carbon emission pathway which take into account both social development and climate targets. As the largest carbon emitter, China has put forward the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this regard, the corresponding carbon emission reduction scenarios are designed according to the new situation of China's emission reduction in this paper, firstly. Furthermore, under the premise of maximizing social welfare, an optimization model which integrating economic growth-equity-environment is developed to determine China's emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Besides quantitatively showing the future total amount and peak value of carbon emissions under different scenarios, the results can also identify its evolution pathway over time. Therein, the peak under most scenarios will concentrate in 2025–2030, which is about 10.7 to 11.8 billion tons. With the increasingly stringent constraints on carbon emission reduction, the cost of emission reduction will increase correspondingly, but the overall social welfare will increase slightly. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission reduction and enlightenments on policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide an up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's iron and steel sector. • Conventional technology is estimated to reduce emissions by only 54%. • Innovative technological retrofitting is the key to net-zero emission pathway. As a hard-to-abate sector, the iron and steel industry is responsible for 22% of China's total carbon emissions and therefore plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking and neutrality target. Nearly 90% of China's iron and steel output is produced with coal-based blast furnaces, which results in high carbon emission intensity. To peak China's carbon emissions and achieve the carbon neutrality target, it is essential to accelerate the application of breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based steel-making. This paper estimates the future CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry in pathways that consider the influence of different technology portfolios, technology maturity, decarbonization of power systems, and future steel production output. The results show that using currently available technology, China's iron and steel industry can reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 50%. However, it cannot achieve the neutrality target without using innovative technologies. By combining conventional strategies with net-zero emission technologies such as CCS and hydrogen metallurgy, approximately 80–90% emission reduction can be achieved, thus leading to a carbon neutrality pathway, which can meet the 1.5°C targets of the carbon budget limit either. In the future, carbon emissions' reduction potential will be influenced by the decarbonization of power systems and the diffusion rate of innovative technologies. To achieve carbon neutrality, it is essential to act sooner and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China’s economy, but also demonstrated China’s further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change. Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal (1949-2049), it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints. More specifically, the optimization and realignment of energy structure, industrial structure, production and consumption structure, the rational planning of afforestation, and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China’s economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading system (ETS) is a cost-effective way towards achieving the carbon neutrality goal. Based on the gaps in the research on carbon allowance allocation vis-à-vis the carbon neutrality target, this study examines how to allocate carbon allowances equitably and effectively among Chinese provinces. Different from the previous research that mainly considers responsibility, ability, and potential of equity dimensions, this paper proposes a composite indicator allocation approach based on the equity of history, demand, contribution, and guarantee, and it also employs the entropy method and expert survey method to obtain the indicator weight values in different scenarios. Results show that the carbon allowances of some provinces, such as the forest-rich province of Yunnan, vary significantly in five scenarios, but little differences are observed for some provinces, such as the high historical emissions province of Shanxi. More provinces achieve data envelopment analysis efficiency in the preferred scenario. Compared with the objective scenario, the required emission reduction in the preferred gross domestic product (GDP) scenario is 231 million tonnes less, and the emission reduction cost is 190 billion yuan less. It is suggested that the Chinese government should adopt the allocation scheme in preference for the GDP scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]