Search

Copyright of Virtual Archaeology Review is the property of Virtual Archaeology Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In a recent paper, we extended a previous study on the solar solar influence to the generation of the March 2012 heatwave in the northeastern USA. In the present study we check the possible relationship of solar activity with the early March 2012 bad weather in northeast Thrace, Greece. To this end, we examined data from various remote sensing instrumentation monitoring the Sun (SDO satellite), Interplanetary space (ACE satellite), the Earth's magnetosphere (Earth-based measurements, NOAA-19 satellite), the top of the clouds (Terra and Aqua satellites), and the near ground atmosphere. Our comparative data analysis suggests that: (i) the winter-like weather (rainfall, fast winds, decreased temperature) in Thrace started on 6 March 2012, the same day as the heatwave started in USA, (ii) during the March 2012 winter-like event in Thrace (6–15 March), the ACE satellite recorded enhanced fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while SOHO and PAMELA recorded solar protons at very high energies (>500 MeV), (iii) Between 3–31 March, the temperature in Alexandoupoli and the ACE/EPAM solar high energy (1.88–4.70 MeV) proton flux were strongly anticorelated (r = −0.75, p = 0.5). (iv) Thrace experienced particularly intense cyclonic circulation, during periods of magnetic storms on 8–10 and 12–13 March, which occurred after the arrival at ACE of two interplanetary shock waves, on March 8 and March 11, respectively, (v) at the beginning of the two above mentioned periods large atmospheric electric fields were recorded, with values ranging between ~−2000 V/m and ~1800 V/m on 8 March, (vi) the winter-like weather on 8–10 March 2012 occurred after the detection of the main SEP event related with a coronal mass ejection released in interplanetary space as a result of intense solar flare activity observed by SDO on 7 March 2012, (vi) the 8–10 March weather was related with a deep drop of ~63 °C in the cloud top temperature measured by MODIS/Terra, which favors strong precipitation. Finally, we analyzed data from the electric power network in Thrace (~41°N) and we found, for the first time sudden voltage changes of ~3.5 kV in the electric grid in Greece, during the decay phase of the March 2012 storm series. We discuss the winter-like March 2012 event in Thrace regarding the influence of solar cosmic rays on the low troposphere mediated by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Finally, we infer that the novel finding of the geomagnetic effects on the electric power grid in Thrace may open a new window into space weather applications research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide acceptance that Climate Change (CC) is a reality, often taking extreme forms, has led to the development of strategies to mitigate climate change and the need to adapt to the new climate conditions. Greece has already developed a National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (NSACC), which has started to be implemented in 2016 in the 13 regions of the state by implementing relevant projects. The Primary Sector of Agriculture (PSA) is one of the most vulnerable sectors to CC in Greece. This analysis describes the main points of the national strategy for mitigation and adaptation, focusing on the adaptation strategy for the PSA. Most of the information included in the analysis comes from a multidisciplinary study organized by the Bank of Greece (BoG), which was used as a guide for the formulation of the NSACC. The analysis includes a comprehensive summary of the PSA adaptation policy to CC, an assessment of climate evolution in Greece with emphasis on the characteristics related to the PSA, estimations of the CC impact on plant and animal production, and the whole organization of the national effort for adaptation to CC. The entire organization of the work followed the framework of the BoG study and the methodologies used in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to numerous reports, the year 2023 is considered the hottest year on record, as a series of natural disasters have struck especially in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. These calamities, such as vegetation fires and floods like the recent ones in Greece, are not just a localised threat, but one that goes beyond the perimeter of countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, as these uncommon occurrences of nature are also being observed in other parts of the world. Considering that this sort of threat is highly unpredictable and requires specific measures, this paper aims to assess the effects of the recent natural disasters in Southern Europe and to identify measures taken by Greece to counter and mitigate the effects of the mentioned calamities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU's ambition to establish economy-wide climate neutrality by 2050 requires challenging transformations in many economic activities. This paper aims to investigate the nexus of structural changes and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) in an important sector of the livestock system, namely pig farming, during the period of 2010–2020 and to discuss the main directions of GHGE reduction. The academic novelty of this contribution is characterised by a combination of the shift-share and cluster analysis that allows for the investigation of the evolution phenomenon, applying the sustainability prism in order to understand the nexus between pig farming and the livestock system, as well as combining the national and EU levels. Results suggest that the steep decline in the number of holdings and a moderate reduction in livestock units (LSUs) on farms do not bring tangible GHGE reduction results. The cluster analysis confirms that pig farming systems in pre-2004 member states, except for Finland and Greece, demonstrated positive developments or a lower decline in holdings with pigs and live swine LSUs compared to other countries, while in the dominant share of post-2003 member states, the GHGE reduction rate was higher. This research identifies a reduction in the pig population, improvement in feed production and the development of related supply chains, and changes in manure management and utilisation as the main directions of GHGE reduction; however, the identified clusters are related with different potentials of GHGE reduction when applying the aforementioned measures. Recommendations include the development and support of actions that focus on GHGE reduction from swine manure and contribute to the establishment of a circular economy in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The considerable relevant size of the tourism sector for some economies, together with this sector's vulnerability to CC, renders this study an insightful aid to tourism demand forecasting. The paper applies a pooled mean group (PMG) model to identify climate parameters that affect tourism demand. Then, it continues with an input–output table analysis to show the transmission effects of CC on each component of the tourism sector. The PMG model imposes homogeneity on the long-run coefficients and while less restrictive, it is more efficient than other methods of the same family. The estimated gravity equation enables comparisons of the baseline scenario with various different scenarios of CC and finds how tourist arrivals could be affected up to 2080. Our results suggest that there is mostly a positive relationship of the squared difference of temperature and precipitation between Greece and tourist origin countries. Our findings also suggest that CC could lead to a fall in Greek GDP between 1.79 and 2.61%. We believe that our findings will help design appropriate policy actions that may offset or alleviate these negative future negative impacts of CC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to study wet–cold compound events (WCCEs) in Greece for the wet and cold season November–April since these events may affect directly human activities for short or longer periods, as no similar research has been conducted for the country studying the past and future development of these compound events. WCCEs are divided into two different daily compound events, maximum temperature– (TX) accumulated precipitation (RR) and minimum temperature– (TN) accumulated precipitation (RR), using fixed thresholds (RR over 20 mm d -1 and temperature under 0 ∘ C). Observational data from the Hellenic National Meteorology Service (HNMS) and simulation data from reanalysis and EURO-CORDEX models were used in the study for the historical period 1980–2004. The ensemble mean of the simulation datasets from projection models was employed for the near future period (2025–2049) to study the impact of climate change on the occurrence of WCCEs under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Following data processing and validation of the models, the potential changes in the distribution of WCCEs in the future were investigated based on the projected and historical simulations. WCCEs determined by fixed thresholds were mostly found over high altitudes with TN–RR events exhibiting a future tendency to reduce particularly under the RCP 8.5 scenario and TX–RR exhibiting similar reduction of probabilities for both scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management & Innovation is the property of Wyzsza Szkola Biznesu-National Louis University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high spatial resolution (5 × 5 km2), a detailed assessment of key climatic hazards is performed that allows for: (a) the analysis of hazard dynamics and their evolution due to climate change and (b) direct comparisons and spatial prioritization across Greece. The high geographical complexity of Greece requires that a large number of diverse hazards (heatwaves—TX, cold spells—TN, torrential rainfall—RR, snowstorms, and windstorms), need to be considered in order to correctly capture the country's susceptibility to climate extremes. The current key findings include the dominance of cold-temperature extremes in mountainous regions and warm extremes over the coasts and plains. Extreme rainfall has been observed in the eastern mainland coasts and windstorms over Crete and the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Projections of the near future reveal more warm extremes in northern areas becoming more dominant all over the country by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the recent decades due to the uncontrolled waste of natural resources and climate change, the terms Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), sustain- ability and environmental accounting have permeated everyday life, hugely affecting the way in which the business world now operates. This essentially means that any company interested in its viability should strictly devise its strategic planning considering three main pillars. These are economic development, ecological balance and social progress. Guided by these three pillars, combining appropriate new technologies and dissemination of information, the awareness of global public opinion is influenced by direct information related to the negative effects and practices arising from the company activities. In the context of this philosophy, the importance of environmental accounting and corporate social responsibility, which are dealt with in this paper, is clear. These two concepts are inextricably linked to various forms of actions and interventions in the social scene, mainly on part of the companies that operate in an environment burdened by the reckless use of natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In deltaic areas, riverine and coastal waters interact; hence, these highly dynamic environments are particularly sensitive to climate change. This adds to existing anthropogenic pressures from irrigated agriculture, industrial infrastructure, urbanization, and touristic activities. The paper investigates the estimated future variations in the dynamics of surface and coastal water resources at a Mediterranean deltaic environment for the twenty-first century. Therefore, an Integrated Deltaic Risk Index (IDRI) is proposed as a vulnerability assessment tool to identify climate change impact (CCI) on the study area. For this purpose, three regional climate models (RCM) are used with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for short-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) future periods. Extensive numerical modeling of river hydrology, storm surges, coastal inundation, water scarcity, and heat stress on irrigated agriculture is combined with available atmospheric data to estimate CCI on the Nestos river delta (Greece). The IDRI integrates modeling results about (i) freshwater availability covering agricultural demands for three water consumption scenarios, i.e., a reference (REF), a climate change (CC), and an extended irrigation (EXT) scenario, combining river discharges and hydropower dam operation; (ii) inundated coastal areas due to storm surges; and (iii) heat stress on cultivated crops. Sustainable practices on irrigated agriculture and established river basin management plans are also considered for the water demands under combinatory scenarios. The differentiations of model outputs driven by various RCM/RCP combinations are investigated. Increased deltaic vulnerability is found under the RCP8.5 scenario especially for the long-term future period. The projected IDRI demonstrates the need for integrated water resources management when compared with risk indexing of individual water processes in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to study wet-cold compound events (WCCEs) over Greece for the wet and cold season November-April. WCCEs are divided in two different compound events (TX-RR) and (TN-RR) and two different approaches using fixed (RR over 20 mm/day and Temperature under 0 °C) and percentile (RR over 95th and Temperature under 5th) thresholds. Observational data from the Hellenic National Meteorology Service (HNMS) and simulation data from reanalysis and EUROCORDEX models were used in the study for the historical period 1980-2004. Simulation datasets from projection models were employed for the near future period (2025-2049) to study the impact of climate change on the occurrence of WCCEs under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Following data processing and validation of the models, the potential changes in the distribution of WCCEs in the future were investigated based the projected and historical simulations. WCCEs determined by fixed thresholds were mostly found over high altitudes with a future tendency to reduce particularly under RCP 8.5. On the other hand, WCCEs obtained with percentile thresholds, were distributed mostly in Eastern Greece and Crete while their changes differed significantly among models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study assesses the direct effects of climate change by 2060, including extreme events, on the productivity of regional crop farming and livestock in Greece, and the broader socio-economic effects on the agri-food and other sectors. Different approaches (i.e., agronomic models, statistical regression models, and equations linking thermal stress to livestock output) were combined to estimate the effects on productivity from changes in the average values of climatic parameters, and subsequently the direct economic effects from this long-term climate change. Recorded damages from extreme events together with climatic thresholds per event and crop were combined to estimate the direct economic effects of these extremes. The broader socio-economic effects were then estimated through input–output analysis. Under average levels of future extreme events, the total direct economic losses for Greek agriculture due to climate change will be significant, from EUR 437 million/year to EUR 1 billion/year. These losses approximately double when indirect effects on other sectors using agricultural products as inputs (e.g., food and beverage, hotels, and restaurants) are considered, and escalate further under a tenfold impact of extreme events. Losses in the GDP and employment are moderate at the national level, but significant in regions where the contribution of agriculture is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Basin is severely impacted by anthropogenic changes affecting both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods. The region is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, with floods being considered the most important, due both to their frequency and impacts. Koiliaris watershed (northwest of Crete Island, Greece) represents a relevant case study as past land-use changes via deforestation and intense cultivation practices induce soil organic matter losses, making soils susceptible to water erosion and desertification. The restoration of native riparian forests has been identified as the most effective nature-based solution (NBS) for the area. Through modeling, our study assessed the effectiveness of this NBS in addressing flood risk and erosion while providing additional ecosystem services (carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation). A cost–benefit analysis has been then implemented to also investigate the sustainability of the investment from an economic point of view. Our results show the NBS would be successful in ensuring a better flow of targeted ecosystem services compared to the business-as-usual conditions. The associated investment would result in economic sustainability and associated costs would be paid back in five years. Though site-specific, our study provides lessons learned for dealing with future land-restoration challenges in the Mediterranean to cope with climate change-related challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on coastal aquifers, focusing on the influence of the components of the water cycle on seawater intrusion, and the evolution of the phenomenon in the future. The simulation of coastal water resources was performed using an integrated modeling system (IMS), designed for agricultural coastal watersheds, which consists of inter-connected models of surface hydrology (UTHBAL), groundwater hydrology (MODFLOW), and seawater intrusion (SEAWAT). Climatic models for the adverse impact scenario (RCP8.5) and the medium impact scenario (RCP4.5) of climate change were used. Transient boundary head conditions were set to the coastal boundary, to dynamically represent the rise in sea level due to climate change. The response of groundwater in the coastal Almyros Basin, located in central Greece, was simulated from 1991 to 2100. The findings indicate that seawater intrusion will be advanced in the future, in both climate change scenarios. The models show varying patterns in groundwater recharge, with varying uncertainty projected into the future, and sensitivity to time in the fluctuation of the components of the water cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to significantly affect countries in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, causing higher-than-average temperature increases, considerable reductions in rainfall and water runoff, and extreme events such as heatwaves. These pose severe threats to local energy systems, requiring a reliable and quantitative risk analysis. A methodological approach is thus proposed which covers both energy supply and demand, utilizing the latest climate projections under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and an appropriate scale for each energy form. For energy supply technologies, risks are assessed through statistical regression models and/or mathematical equations correlating climatic parameters with energy productivity. To analyze climate risks for energy demand, bottom–up models were developed, integrating both behavioral and policy aspects which are often considered in a very limited way. The results show that climate change will mainly affect electricity generation from hydroelectric and thermal power plants, with variations depending on the plants' locations and uncertainties associated with precipitation and runoff changes. The climate risks for solar and wind energy were found to be low. Energy consumption will also be affected, but the range of risks depends on the ambition and the effectiveness of measures for upgrading the thermal performance of buildings and the intensity of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change presents a pressing challenge to regional development, impacting economies, environments, and societies across the globe. Europe, with its diverse regions and commitment to sustainability, serves as a unique case study for exploring the integration of climate change strategies into regional policy and planning. The purpose of this study is to analyze the integration of climate change strategies into policy and planning for regional development in Europe, especially in Greece. Data was collected from 270 environmental experts across Greece using a questionnaire. The results highlight the significance of regional economic growth (gross regional product), infrastructure quality, educational attainment, and a conducive business environment as key measures of regional development. Opportunities arising from climate change strategy integration are explored, revealing economic benefits, environmental opportunities, social enhancements, and technological advancements. These opportunities not only mitigate climate change's adverse impacts but also foster innovation, economic growth, and community resilience. Successful integration can position regions as global leaders in sustainability and innovation. Correlation and regression analyses reveal that opportunities for integration and common climate change strategies positively influence regional development, while barriers exhibit a counterintuitive positive relationship. However, several barriers hinder integration efforts, including institutional fragmentation, resource constraints, conflicting political and economic priorities, and insufficient stakeholder engagement. This study sheds light on the intricate relationship between climate change, policy integration, and regional development in Greece. It supports the potential for regions to drive sustainability and innovation while navigating the challenges of climate change, ultimately contributing to a more resilient and prosperous future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and rising temperatures have led to an increase in extreme weather and climate reports at regional, hemispheric and international scales, especially in terms of heat. The worrying increase in the number of global climate-related disasters, such as widespread fires in Australia in 2019-2020, those in Greece in 2021, volcanic eruptions in 2021, earthquakes, landslides and floods, the three main greenhouse gases greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen oxides - which reached a record level in 2020 and 2021, despite the reduction of human activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic, draws attention to the effects that may influence the development of the planet. The paper aims to highlight how climate change affects sustainable development, adaptation and vulnerability of people, ecosystems, agriculture and cities in relation to environmental issues. The article presents economic impact considerations and possible ways to mitigate climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex interplay between land use planning, water resource management, and the effects of global climate change continues to attract global attention. This study assessed the connection between land use planning, water resources, and global climate change. Data were collected using an online questionnaire that was emailed to 320 professionals in the land and environmental sectors in Greece and Europe. The results showed a significant relationship between land use planning, water resources, and their policies with global climate change. It was also revealed that proper land use planning can guide the establishment of waste management systems that minimize methane emissions, and that land use planning influences agricultural practices, which, in turn, impact greenhouse gas emissions. It was also revealed that changes in precipitation patterns can lead to an increased frequency and severity of droughts, and that changes in water temperature and flow can lead to habitat loss. This study also confirmed that strong policy support helps in the conservation of land and water resources, and stakeholder engagement promotes a shared planning process, leading to commonly agreed-upon spatial measures. This study recommends that governments and policymakers should integrate climate change, land use, and water management policies to ensure a coherent and effective approach towards sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firefighters are severely impacted by climate events, yet they are an underexamined population with regard to climate change research. This systematic review aims to synthesize the existing literature on the psychological effects of wildfire events on firefighters and to discuss some of the major gaps in disaster research relating to first responders and their mental health. A thorough search of the existing literature through June 2023 on the topic of wildfires and first responder psychological health was conducted through the databases PubMed, PsychINFO, and Embase. This search yielded 13 final studies which met the exclusion and inclusion criteria for this review. The final studies consisted of populations that responded to wildfire events from four different countries (two from Israel, one from Canada, two from Greece, and eight from Australia). The data gathered by this review suggest that firefighters may experience many environmental and occupational exposures during wildfire suppression, which are linked to an increased risk of PTSD and other psychological symptoms even months after the event. This review brings to light the need for further research of the compounded effect of the environmental and psychological exposures of first responders and the potential psychological effects of those exposures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present review article provides an overview about the timberlines of the Greek high mountains. It informs about the existing tree species and about the altitude, physiognomy and dynamics of the timberline ecotones. Subsequently, it gives an interpretation of the human influence and the geo-ecological factors, which may have caused the altitudinal limit of tree growth in Greece. A latitudinal and local change in timberline-forming tree species creates high heterogeneity between the research areas and makes this their most remarkable feature. Moreover, in Greece there is no rise in timberline altitude from north to south. In some areas, fir-dieback causes a local decline in timberline altitude, which is the predominant dynamic process. An anthropogenic depression of the forest line is certainly common. Yet, a natural forest cover reaching up to the peak zones of the Greek high mountains is unthinkable. The identified timberline-forming factors and the prevailing site conditions speak against this. In accordance with the Mediterranean climate regime, it is obvious that not only the climatic conditions of winter (frost, snow) determine the limits of tree growth. The (macro- and micro) climatic impacts of summer (drought, high insolation) play a highly important role as well. Against this background, the climate-ecological hindrances to the establishment of trees, i.e. the germination and the survival of seedlings, are identified as key-factors for understanding the Hellenic timberlines ("regeneration hypothesis"). Against the background of global warming, suggestions for further research on the ecology and dynamics of the Greek high mountain timberlines are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impervious land expansion is linked to ecosystem fragmentation and degradation, posing threats to nature conservation and multiplying climate change impacts. This is particularly true on the Mediterranean coast, where persistent urbanization is coupled with tourism development, further intensifying coastal erosion, flood risk, heat stress and biodiversity loss, while decreasing carbon sequestration. In this research, high-resolution imperviousness data were analyzed through a geospatial methodology to detect patterns and processes in a heavily burdened Mediterranean coastal area, namely Greece. The methodology was structured on a set of GIS tools, analyzing the distribution of new impervious cover between 2006 and 2018, to evaluate pressures exerted on coastal territories and on the environmental protection network. The results revealed relatively slow rates of impervious land expansion at a nationwide scale, mostly attributed to the economic recession period in Greece. However, certain locations exhibited continuing artificialization of land even within Natura 2000 areas, while future pressures on coastal territories are expected to increase due to the restarting of construction activity and the continuing dynamic of the mass tourism sector. The conclusions imply that controlling for imperviousness is important in order to develop spatial planning policies for climate resilience, which should be decisively enforced in the Mediterranean to prevent a business-as-usual scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South European and Mediterranean countries traditionally suffer from water scarcity, especially the regions around the Mediterranean. In Cyclades, the effects of drought have historically been observed and tackled with small-scale applications, with the most efficient method being rainwater harvesting (RWH). RWH is an inherent aspect of the local population's culture and architecture, since most houses have built-in water tanks and flat roofs to harvest as much rainwater as possible. In recent decades, the increase in local population and tourism have added additional stress to the limited water resources of the Cycladic islands. To overcome water shortages, most of the islands are equipped with desalination plants. Despite the use of these plants, RWH is still a vital source of water that is free and has zero carbon footprint. Thus, it is important to compare, assess and quantify the performance of this traditional water conserving method as a key water source for the islands' water resources management, today and for the coming decades. In this research, we investigate and quantify the future performance of rainwater harvesting applications and their contribution to continuous, sustainable, and climate-resilient water supply. The results show a decrease in rainwater harvesting potential in most of the islands, as well as the negative effect of touristic activity on per capita water availability on the islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture is the main and, in some cases, the only, source of income and employment in rural areas. The change in the conditions under which agriculture is practiced has various effects on the agricultural economy but also on the social structure of rural areas. Climate change has multiple effects on agricultural production, necessitating the reorganization of agricultural production in some cases. These effects of climate change will also impact the economic and social aspects of farms in rural areas. This paper attempts to identify these effects by measuring the socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the region of Central Macedonia in Greece. For this reason, a multicriteria model was developed to simulate these impacts by estimating a set of seven social and economic indicators. The model was implemented to the average farm which was estimated from the main cultivations of the region. A scenario analysis was also used in combination with the multicriteria model. The multicriteria model suggests modifications are needed in the average farm crop plan of the region as a result of the climate change impact. The scenarios results show that climate change will negatively affect all the social and economic indicators and will continue to affect them over the years. These results can be used by policymakers to understand the economic and social impacts of climate change in the region to plan their future policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although beef production is one of the most valuable drivers of the global livestock economy, it is considered the main contributor to GHG emissions derived from livestock. This study's objectives were to estimate the GHG emissions (expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents; CO2-eq) from the beef sector in Greece at the national and prefecture levels during the period 2011–2021 and to explore potential mitigation scenarios. The Tier 1 and 2 methodologies were implemented to estimate the GHG emissions. The total estimated emissions increased over the study period. Although both methodologies captured similar trends in the changes in GHG emissions, the Tier 2 estimations revealed lower emissions and fluctuations due to the different and more precise computational approaches. At the prefecture level, fluctuations in emissions were also noted. However, specific regions showed higher increases in emissions. The observed increase in emissions, in terms of either absolute values (Gg CO2-eq) or intensities (Kg CO2-eq/Kg produced beef carcass), is of utmost importance, and further mitigation strategies should be considered. The regression analysis showed a good predictive ability for emissions, using the number of livestock animals as the input. The equations derived from this analysis could be further used as first-approach tools for capturing future emissions at the national level before proceeding with more elaborate approaches. The different scenarios examined in response to the sector's challenges showed moderate changes in GHG emissions. Depending on national priorities, such scenarios could serve as pilot case studies, which may assist stakeholders in improving the sustainability of the sector in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reviews the impacts of climate change on Greek forests, analysing factors such as climate trends, forest management, biodiversity, genetics, insects, and wildfires, using data from the Scopus and Mendeley databases and official reports. By utilising our current understanding and allocating necessary efforts and resources, we actively address climate change consequences on forests. This study focuses on climate change and extreme weather outcomes on forests. Greek mountain forests at 520–1310 m experience decreasing annual mean and minimum temperatures (−0.015 and −0.027 °C yr–1) but increasing maximum temperatures (+0.014 °C yr–1), especially in Southern Greece (+0.047 °C yr–1). Recent findings reveal forests migrating to higher altitudes with favourable conditions, correlating with water availability, temperature, and tree growth, necessitating further research on forest productivity. A decline in fir tree-ring growth (Average Tree Ring Width Index < 0.6) is observed in mainland Greece, indicating temperature's effect on growth. Effective forest tree conservation requires prioritising biodiversity monitoring, considering climate change impacts on phenology and addressing the absence of strategies to protect and enhance genetic diversity. Climate change influenced 70 forestry pests' ranges, notably among Greek insect pests. Annual burned areas from forest fires data indicate a consistent long-term increasing trend, underscoring fire prevention prioritization and exploring fire risk, behaviour, and climate change. The study highlights two to four significant knowledge gaps, and one to three key challenges pertaining to the six research areas. Finally, it promotes partnerships for informed decision-making and better outcomes by integrating Indigenous knowledge, scientific understanding, and collaboration among research, policy, and local management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of implementing the European Flood Directive in Greece, a large set of rainfall data was compiled with the principal aim of constructing rainfall intensity–timescale–return period relationships for the entire country. This set included ground rainfall data as well as non-conventional data from reanalyses and satellites. Given the European declaration of climate emergency, along with the establishment of a ministry of climate crisis in Greece, this dataset was also investigated from a climatic perspective using the longest of the data records to assess whether or not they support the climate crisis doctrine. Monte Carlo simulations, along with stationary Hurst–Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic dynamics, were also employed to compare data with theoretical expectations. Rainfall extremes are proven to conform with the statistical expectations under stationarity. The only notable climatic events found are the clustering (reflecting HK dynamics) of water abundance in the 1960s and dry years around 1990, followed by a recovery from drought conditions in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomena of climate change transcend all national and regional boundaries. To address this complex challenge, wemust determine the areas of the country of interest, in this case, Greece, that have been most adversely affected by climate. Greece is surrounded by water, and a significant part of its GDP is derived fromthe marine andmaritime industries, including tourism. Since the start of the IntelComp project, a Preparatory Living Lab (PLL) has been planned and delivered, feeding into the development of the IntelComp platform and the Living Lab on Climate Change Adaptation. The study's results lead to the conclusion that one of themost important challenges in tackling climate change is the decarbonisation challenge, specifically the shift to renewable energy sources and the investments that must be made. Several EU and national policy frameworks, including the European Green Deal, the Climate Law, the National Long-term Strategy for 2050 (on the Climate and Energy), highlight the decarbonisation as one of themajor challenges in the climate change pledge. This will be the primary subject of the IntelComp climate change case study. PLLs also led to the identification of policy questions and useful data sources to aid the IntelComp project's launch. While previous research on co-production has primarily focused on involving citizens through public participation processes in order to gain their support, trust, and insights in structured decision-making processes, our approach opens a new channel for incorporating external knowledge into problem-solving processes. The IntelComp project will aid in policy development by providing pertinent tools co-developed with the final users that will provide insights and analysis in the field of STI (Science, Technology, Innovation) encompassing all of the Energy areas mentioned above. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land subsidence in coastal and delta cities often results in infrastructure and residential building damages, while also increasing the area's flooding vulnerability. The coastal cities of Messolonghi and Aitolikon are typical examples, as they are built on top of old stream deposits near the coast. In the last several years, the gradual subsidence of the sites, combined with the impact of climate change, resulted in multiple floods. The rush of seawater over the lowlands has also been reported. Persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) is a remote-sensing technique that can provide a reliable and cost-effective solution, as it can be used to identify and monitor soil displacements. In this study, a novel parallelized PSI (P-PSI) processing chain, developed by the Operational Unit Center for Earth Observation Research and Satellite Remote Sensing (BEYOND) of the National Observatory of Athens, as well as the Copernicus EGMS product were used to identify these displacements. The results were examined in correlation with other potential factors such as the overexploitation of the underground water, the natural compaction of the clay soil layers, the primary and secondary consolidation due to the external construction loading, the oxidation of the organic soils, tidal gauge data, precipitation data, and ground truth data. In Messolonghi, various deformation rates were recorded, with maximum mean values of −5 mm/year in the eastern part, whereas in Aitolikon, the maximum values were around −4.5 mm/year. The displacements were mostly attributed to the primary consolidation due to the building loads. Deformation patterns and their correlation with precipitation could also be witnessed. It was evident that the increased precipitation rates and sea level rise played a leading role in the constant flooding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of the present study were (a) to evaluate the importance of climate-related variables in the vaccination patterns applied in sheep and goat farms in Greece and (b) to assess potential interactions between these factors and previously established important health management- and human resources-related factors applied in the farms. Vaccination patterns against chlamydial abortion, clostridial infections, contagious agalactia, contagious ecthyma, foot-rot, paratuberculosis, pneumonia or staphylococcal mastitis were assessed. Climatic variables (2010–2019 and 2018–2019) were obtained for 444 locations with small ruminant farms throughout Greece. Patterns of vaccine administration in the farms were obtained through interviews with farmers. The following nine outcomes were considered: 'vaccination against chlamydial abortion', 'vaccination against clostridial infections', 'vaccination against contagious agalactia', 'vaccination against contagious ecthyma', 'vaccination against foot-rot', 'vaccination against paratuberculosis', 'vaccination against bacterial pneumonia', 'vaccination against staphylococcal mastitis' and 'total number of optional vaccines administered'. Univariable and multivariable analyses were first performed to establish associations of each of the above outcomes with climatic variables. Then, the same approach was employed to assess the importance of climatic variables against health management- and human resources-related factors in the administration of vaccines in the farms of the study. Climatic variables had a higher association with vaccinations against infections in sheep flocks (26 associations) than in goat herds (9 associations) (p = 0.002) and in farms with semi-extensive or extensive management (32 associations) than in farms with intensive or semi-intensive management (8 associations) (p < 0.0001). In 26 cases (38.8% of all analyses evaluated), the climatic variables overshadowed the management- and human resources-related variables assessed as significant predictors for vaccination. In most cases, these referred to sheep flocks (nine cases) and farms with semi-extensive or extensive management (eight cases). For all eight infections, there were changes in the climatic variables found to be significant predictors from the 10-year dataset to the 2-year dataset. The results indicated that, in some cases, climate factors overshadowed factors traditionally considered for the formulation of vaccination programs. This points out the significance of taking into account climate conditions in the health management of small ruminant farms. Future studies can be focused on formulating vaccination programs in accordance with climate factors and also on setting the optimum season(s) for vaccination of animals based on the circulation of the pathogens, the risks for the development of diseases and the stage within the annual production cycle of the animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's changing climate may have different effects around the planet. Regional changes in temperature and precipitation extremes are associated with damaging natural hazards. Decreases in precipitation are expected to occur in some places at mid-latitudes, for instance the Mediterranean, which has been classified as a climate change hotspot. Droughts are among the most damaging natural hazards with severe consequences in the socio-economic sectors, the environment, and living beings. In contrast, extreme heavy precipitation events may become more frequent. This study aims to project changes in precipitation extremes and assess drought variability and change across Greece. A better knowledge of the potential changes in drought variability under climate change is vital for managing potential risks and impacts associated with dry conditions. The spatiotemporal characteristics of heavy precipitation and drought events in Greece are investigated using extreme precipitation indices such as consecutive wet/dry days, total wet-day precipitation, fraction of total wet-day rainfall, maximum daily precipitation, and heavy precipitation days. The standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index are also calculated to assess seasonal dryness variability. The analysis is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution simulations from EURO-CORDEX, under two different representative concentration pathway scenarios. The results show that the region is subject to future dry conditions. Total annual precipitation is found to decrease in most of the country, with western and southern parts tending to be the most vulnerable areas. The annual precipitation is estimated to decrease by 5–20% and 5–25% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) toward the period 2041–2070 and by 10–25% and 15–40% (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) toward 2071–2100. Drought-related indices reveal positive trends, particularly under the high greenhouse-gas emission scenario, with the number of consecutive dry days increasing by 20–50% and 40–80% (during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively). On the contrary, extreme precipitation events tend to decrease in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well-established eco-hydrological model that has been extensively applied to watersheds across the globe. This work reviews over two decades (2002–2022) of SWAT studies conducted on Mediterranean watersheds. A total of 260 articles have been identified since the earliest documented use of the model in a Mediterranean catchment back in 2002; of which 62% were carried out in Greece, Italy, or Spain. SWAT applications increased significantly in recent years since 86% of the reviewed papers were published in the past decade. A major objective for most of the reviewed works was to check the applicability of SWAT to specific watersheds. A great number of publications included procedures of calibration and validation and reported performance results. SWAT applications in the Mediterranean region mainly cover water resources quantity and quality assessment and hydrologic and environmental impacts evaluation of land use and climate changes. Nevertheless, a tendency towards a multi-purpose use of SWAT is revealed. The numerous examples of SWAT combined with other tools and techniques outline the model's flexibility. Several studies performed constructive comparisons between Mediterranean watersheds' responses or compared SWAT to other models or methods. The effects of inputs on SWAT outputs and innovative model modifications and improvements were also the focus of some of the surveyed articles. However, a significant number of studies reported difficulties regarding data availability, as these are either scarce, have poor resolution or are not freely available. Therefore, it is highly recommended to identify and develop accurate model inputs and testing data to optimize the SWAT performance. [Display omitted] • SWAT review on Mediterranean hydro-climatic studies. • Lack of SWAT assessment on Mediterranean catchments. • A comparison of data from different Mediterranean basins. • Enhancing data availability for SWAT applications. • Developing a comprehensive knowledge of Mediterranean watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of climate change on Greek agriculture, by evaluating and refining the current policy measures and interventions to address them through the lens and funding opportunities of the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023–2027. To this end, we conducted a diagnostic analysis of the current strategic framework in Greece and provided policy recommendations around five key areas: education, consulting services, agri-food cooperation, coupling of innovation, and digitalization, as well as risk management on climate change. Overall, we found that the national strategic framework is consistent with the objectives and priorities of European policies regarding the environment and the climate, but targeted actions are needed to enable the management of the Greek agricultural sector while addressing the risks of climate change, environmental degradation, and the excessive use of natural resources. The findings highlight the importance of much-needed revisions in national strategic planning. We have suggested key interventions and actions for dealing with climate change with regards to Greek agriculture and the overarching goals of the new CAP to promote sustainability, knowledge, and innovation in the agri-food sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expected global climate change is allegedly becoming more intense, and the impacts on water resources are being tracked in various hydroclimatic regimes. The present research investigates a hydrologically important area of Greece, where four natural lakes are concentrated. It aims to quantify any potential long-term trends in lake water area, precipitation, and temperature timeseries. Water area timeseries spanning four decades are estimated by the mNDWI from Landsat satellite imagery and used as an index of each lake's water storage. Precipitation and temperature measurements are obtained from the open access datasets Hydroscope and ERA5-Land, respectively. All of the timeseries were tested seasonally and annually with the Pettitt and Mann–Kendal tests for statistically significant breakpoints and trends detection. No timeseries analysis resulted in a statistically significant (at 0.05 or 0.1 levels) annual or seasonal trend. The hydroclimatic regime over the past forty years in western Greece is found to have been relatively stable. Land use was also assessed to have been relatively unchanging, converging to the overall stability of the local water regime. However, the findings of this research should not be interpreted as a reassurance against climate change, but as a call to further research for the detailed regional and local assessment of climate change and hydroclimatic variability with acknowledged statistical approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strongly affected by the escalating impacts of climate change, wildfires have been increasing in frequency and severity around the world. The primary aim of this study was the development of specific territorial measures—estimating the optimal locations of firefighting resources—to enhance the spatial resilience to wildfires in the fire-prone region of Chalkidiki Prefecture in northern Greece. These measures focus on the resistance to wildfires and the adaptation of strategies to wildfire management, based on the estimation of burn probability, including the effect of anthropogenic factors on fire ignition. The proposed location schemes of firefighting resources such as vehicles consider both the susceptibility to fire and the influence of the topography on travel simulation, highlighting the impact of road slope on the initial firefighting attack. The spatial scheme, as well as the number of required firefighting forces is totally differentiated due to slope impact. When we ignore the topography effect, a minimum number of fire vehicles is required to achieve the maximization of coverage (99.2% of the entire study area) giving priority to the most susceptible regions (that is, employing 18 of 24 available fire vehicles). But when we adopt more realistic conditions that integrate the slope effect with travel time, the model finds an optimal solution that requires more resources (that is, employing all 24 available fire vehicles) to maximize the coverage of the most vulnerable regions within 27 min. This process achieves 80% of total coverage. The proposed methodology is characterized by a high degree of flexibility, and provides optimized solutions to decision makers, while considering key factors that greatly affect the effectiveness of the initial firefighting attack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Centaurea subsection Phalolepis has been thoroughly analyzed in previous studies using microsatellites in four centers of speciation: Anatolia, Greece, the Italian Peninsula and the Iberian Peninsula. Evidence suggests a correlation between taxon diversity and mountains. This group constituted a good case study for examining the mountain–geobiodiversity hypothesis (MGH), which explains the possible reasons for the many radiations occurring in mountains across the world. We combined all the datasets and carried out analyses of their genetic structure to confirm the species of subsect. Phalolepis are grouped according to a geographic pattern. We then checked whether climatic fluctuations favored the "species pump" hypothesis in the mountains by using the Climatic Stability Index (CSI). Finally, the relief of the terrain was tested against the rate of allopatric speciation by region by means of Terrain Ruggedness Index and environmental gradients through our new Climate Niche Breadth Index. Our results supported the MGH hypothesis and confirmed that the main triggers, namely altitudinal zonation, climatic oscillations and rugged terrain, must be present for the development of a radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Geoadria is the property of Geoadria and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park is a floristic diversity and endemism hotspot in Greece and one of the main areas where Greek endemic taxa, preliminary assessed as critically endangered and threatened under the IUCN Criteria A and B, are mainly concentrated. The climate and land-cover change impacts on rare and endemic species distributions is more prominent in regional biodiversity hotspots. The main aims of the current study were: (a) to investigate how climate and land-cover change may alter the distribution of four single mountain endemics and three very rare Peloponnesian endemic taxa of the National Park via a species distribution modelling approach, and (b) to estimate the current and future extinction risk of the aforementioned taxa based on the IUCN Criteria A and B, in order to investigate the need for designing an effective plant micro-reserve network and to support decision making on spatial planning efforts and conservation research for a sustainable, integrated management. Most of the taxa analyzed are expected to continue to be considered as critically endangered based on both Criteria A and B under all land-cover/land-use scenarios, GCM/RCP and time-period combinations, while two, namely Alchemilla aroanica and Silene conglomeratica, are projected to become extinct in most future climate change scenarios. When land-cover/land-use data were included in the analyses, these negative effects were less pronounced. However, Silene conglomeratica, the rarest mountain endemic found in the study area, is still expected to face substantial range decline. Our results highlight the urgent need for the establishment of micro-reserves for these taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have demonstrated the tourism industry to be especially sensitive to weather and climate variability. Snow-related tourism, being largely dependent on climatic resources, is particularly affected by climate change. Our study provides a new index to reflect the climatic suitability of a given destination for snow-related tourism activities, focusing on resorts with usually limited snowfall. The proposed Skiing Utility Index (SUI) is based purely on the weather preferences of skiers, extracted by questionnaires distributed at the Parnassos ski center (Greece). The index incorporates four different weather variables considered to be the most influential for this type of tourism. The ideal temperature for skiing was found to be close to 0 °C, the ideal wind speed between 0–3.3 m/s, the ideal cloud cover between 0–25% and the snowfall duration between 1–2 h, with the latter found to be the most important variable for skiing. For each climatic variable, a mean utility score profile was developed from all respondents. Following, a utility function was fitted via linear regression to the above-mentioned utility score. All four utility functions were aggregated into one total SUI score. When combined with climate projections, the SUI can support the assessment of climate change risks for snow-related tourism destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frost incidents comprise significant extreme weather events owing to climate change, possibly endangering the agricultural sector of the already impacted south-eastern European area. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation of the frost conditions under the climate regime for eleven countries was conducted by calculating relevant frost agroclimatic indicators under three time horizons (1985 to 2015, 2005 to 2035 and 2015 to 2045). The Frost Days (FD), Free of Frost Days (FFD), Last Spring Frost (LSF) and First Autumn Frost (FAF) were estimated daily over a grid of 25 × 25 km. We demonstrated that the FD will be reduced according to the balanced A1B emissions scenario over the entire examined area with the mountainous and continental regions being most affected. From 2005 to 2035, a higher LSF reduction is expected over Greece and Albania and the earlier FAF in high altitude areas. All examined regions are projected to face delayed FAF, from 2015 to 2045. In general, all countries will face an increase in the growing season duration owing to the increase of the FFD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, unsustainable water use by the tourism sector, and short-term-based decisions by policymakers create additional stress on limited water resources in arid and semi-arid tourism destinations. Non-conventional water resources are playing an important role in making additional water available for these destinations, and the use of desalination plants has gradually increased. However, they can create additional externalities on the environment that can compromise the sustainability of the tourist destination. The decisions of key stakeholders and cooperation among them hold vital importance for the sustainability of tourism and the availability of water resources. Mykonos Island (Greece) is a globally recognized tourist destination in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The island has suffered significant water-scarcity problems in recent years, in particular during the peak tourist season, and desalination plants are being built to reduce stress on the water supply. The first objective of this work was to analyze the perceptions of hospitality stakeholders regarding water shortages and climate change in Mykonos. A second objective was to assess whether the same hospitality stakeholders feel that desalination plants are the solution to water scarcity in island-tourism destinations such as Mykonos. The results show that (i) hospitality stakeholders have significant awareness regarding water-scarcity problems and the impacts of climate change on tourism activity, (ii) they do not view desalination plants as the only solution to water scarcity, and (iii) they perceive a significant lack of coordination among actors who participate in the decision-making process. These results provide clues regarding the importance of awareness, coordination, and cooperation of each actor involved in the decision-making process and can be of interest to policymakers and public authorities in tourism destinations facing water-scarcity problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential correlation between fir tree-ring width (Abies borisii regis Mattf.) variability and the respective variability of the main climatic parameters in the region of University Forest of Pertouli (central Greece) are being analyzed in the current study, taking into consideration a 60-year period (1961–2020). Correlation and response function analyses were applied to examine the climate–tree-growth relationship. Precipitation was found to be the most crucial and driving factor that most intensively influences the tree growth of A. borisii-regis trees under Mediterranean climate conditions. It was evident that this species is characterized by drought sensitivity and even a short and mild drought event could significantly influence adversely its growth and productivity. June, May and July precipitation present the higher and statistically significant correlation of monthly precipitation with tree-ring width, affecting the ring-width variability by 31.2%. Temperature (mean, max or min) does not seem to highly influence the tree growth, despite the obvious and statistically significant trend increase that has been recorded in the last decades within the frame of climate change. June maximum temperature presents a strong negative correlation with tree-ring width, while April maximum temperature is positively correlated with tree-ring width. The combined impact of precipitation and max temperatures on tree-ring growth is 38.5%. Snow did not reveal any statistically significant correlation to tree-ring width, independent of the height of monthly snow accumulation. A. borisii-regis grown in high altitudes in the Mediterranean region demonstrate high adaptability to the recorded temperature increase and could potentially be able to adapt in future to even warmer climate conditions. The constructed tree-ring chronology could be utilized towards the implementation of further dendroclimatological analyses and climate reconstruction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The most important honeydew-producing insect in Greece is Marchalina hellenica (Coccoidea: Marchalinidae), which is a parasite on pine trees. The current work is part of an ongoing research project aiming to provide knowledge on honeydew-producing insects and the impact of critical factors (climate, beekeeping manipulations, honeydew-producing insect phenology) on honeydew honey production. Empirical evidence indicates that among the weather factors, the most important one, at least for spring honeydew secretions, appears to be temperature and, more specifically, the existence of cold winter days. Presently, we investigate the effect of cold periods in February on the life cycle of Marchalina hellenica. Our primary goal is to help beekeepers plan the timely exploitation of honeydew secretions of pine trees. Such a potential will be beneficial for beekeepers, the rural economy, and forest protection. It should be noted that current results highlight the impact of climate change in the field of entomology, and they indicate that the life cycle of Marchalina hellenica is expected to be drastically shorter. Climate change is considered a major factor affecting honeybees' behavior and productivity with major consequences in both honey and agricultural production. Many research studies have expressed serious concerns about the mass losses of bee colonies and the role of bees as pollinators, while others have underlined important issues for the impact of the increase in temperature on honeybee abundance and honey yields. In the present work, we draw our attention to Marchalina hellenica, which is the most important honeydew-producing insect in Greece. A statistically significant forecasting model for the effect of cold periods in February on the life cycle of the insect is constructed, with the aid of the Cumulative Logit Model and the theory of runs. The forecasting model may help beekeepers plan the timely exploitation of honeydew secretions of pine trees, which will be beneficial for beekeepers, the rural economy, and forest protection. The new suggested model also indicates that, in view of the climate change scenarios seen in the literature, the life cycle of M. hellenica is expected to be drastically shorter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]