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Predicting epidemic evolution is essential for making informed decisions and guiding the implementation of necessary countermeasures. Computational models are vital tools that provide insights into illness progression and enable early detection, proactive intervention, and targeted preventive measures. This paper introduces Sybil, a framework that integrates machine learning and variant-aware compartmental models, leveraging a fusion of data-centric and analytic methodologies. To validate and evaluate Sybil's forecasts, we employed COVID-19 data from several European and U.S. states. The dataset included the number of new and recovered cases, fatalities, and variant presence over time. We evaluate the forecasting precision of Sybil in periods in which there is a change in the trend of the pandemic evolution or a new variant appears. Results demonstrate that Sybil outperforms conventional data-centric approaches, being able to forecast accurately the changes in the trend, the magnitude of these changes, and the future prevalence of new variants., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in approximately 5 million deaths around the world with unprecedented consequences in people's daily routines and in the global economy. Despite vast increases in time and money spent on COVID-19-related research, there is still limited information about the factors at the country level that affected COVID-19 transmission and fatality in EU. The paper focuses on the identification of these risk factors using a machine learning (ML) predictive pipeline and an associated explainability analysis. To achieve this, a hybrid dataset was created employing publicly available sources comprising heterogeneous parameters from the majority of EU countries, e.g., mobility measures, policy responses, vaccinations, and demographics/generic country-level parameters. Data pre-processing and data exploration techniques were initially applied to normalize the available data and decrease the feature dimensionality of the data problem considered. Then, a linear ε-Support Vector Machine (ε-SVM) model was employed to implement the regression task of predicting the number of deaths for each one of the three first pandemic waves (with mean square error of 0.027 for wave 1 and less than 0.02 for waves 2 and 3). Post hoc explainability analysis was finally applied to uncover the rationale behind the decision-making mechanisms of the ML pipeline and thus enhance our understanding with respect to the contribution of the selected country-level parameters to the prediction of COVID-19 deaths in EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug side effects (DSEs) or adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major concern in the healthcare industry, accounting for a significant number of annual deaths in Europe alone. Identifying and predicting DSEs early in the drug development process is crucial to mitigate their impact on public health and reduce the time and costs associated with drug development. Objective: In this study, our primary objective is to predict multiple drug side effects using 2D chemical structures, especially for COVID-19, departing from the conventional approach of relying on 1D chemical structures. We aim to develop a novel model for DSE prediction that leverages the CNN-based transfer learning architecture of ResNet152V2. Motivation: The motivation behind this research stems from the need to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of DSE prediction, enabling the pharmaceutical industry to identify potential drug candidates with fewer adverse effects. By utilizing 2D chemical structures and employing data augmentation techniques, we seek to revolutionize the field of drug side-effect prediction. Novelty: This study introduces several novel aspects. The proposed study is the first of its kind to use 2D chemical structures for predicting drug side effects, departing from the conventional 1D approaches. Secondly, we employ data augmentation with both conventional and diffusion-based models (Pix2Pix), a unique strategy in the field. These innovations set the stage for a more advanced and accurate approach to DSE prediction. Results: Our proposed model, named CHEM2SIDE, achieved an impressive average training accuracy of 0.78. Moreover, the average validation and test accuracy, precision, and recall were all at 0.73. When evaluated for COVID-19 drugs, our model exhibited an accuracy of 0.72, a precision of 0.79, a recall of 0.72, and an F1 score of 0.73. Comparative assessments against established transfer learning and machine learning models (VGG16, MobileNetV2, DenseNet121, and KNN) showcased the exceptional performance of CHEM2SIDE, marking a significant advancement in drug side-effect prediction. Conclusions: Our study introduces a groundbreaking approach to predicting drug side effects by using 2D chemical structures and incorporating data augmentation. The CHEM2SIDE model demonstrates remarkable accuracy and outperforms existing models, offering a promising solution to the challenges posed by DSEs in drug development. This research holds great potential for improving drug safety and reducing the associated time and costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic and other severe health care disruptions endanger individuals to miss essential care. Machine learning models that predict which patients are at greatest risk of missing care visits can help health administrators prioritize retentions efforts towards patients with the most need. Such approaches may be especially useful for efficiently targeting interventions for health systems overburdened during states of emergency. Methods: We use data on missed health care visits from over 55,500 respondents of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) COVID-19 surveys (June – August 2020 and June – August 2021) with longitudinal data from waves 1–8 (April 2004 – March 2020). We compare the performance of four machine learning algorithms (stepwise selection, lasso, random forest, and neural networks) to predict missed health care visits during the first COVID-19 survey based on common patient characteristics available to most health care providers. We test the prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the selected models for the first COVID-19 survey by employing 5-fold cross-validation, and test the out-of-sample performance of the models by applying them to the data from the second COVID-19 survey. Results: Within our sample, 15.5% of the respondents reported any missed essential health care visit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. All four machine learning methods perform similarly in their predictive power. All models have an area under the curve (AUC) of around 0.61, outperforming random prediction. This performance is sustained for data from the second COVID-19 wave one year later, with an AUC of 0.59 for men and 0.61 for women. When classifying all men (women) with a predicted risk of 0.135 (0.170) or higher as being at risk of missing care, the neural network model correctly identifies 59% (58%) of the individuals with missed care visits, and 57% (58%) of the individuals without missed care visits. As the sensitivity and specificity of the models are strongly related to the risk threshold used to classify individuals, the models can be calibrated depending on users' resource constraints and targeting approach. Conclusions: Pandemics such as COVID-19 require rapid and efficient responses to reduce disruptions in health care. Based on characteristics available to health administrators or insurance providers, simple machine learning algorithms can be used to efficiently target efforts to reduce missed essential care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]