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COVID-19 is the highly communicable disease which is being announced as pandemic by WHO. The disease has already impacted the economies of big nations like China, Italy, United states etc and now this disease is hitting our developing country i.e. India too. COVID-19 or Corona virus is human to human spread disease and thus social distancing is the only measure which everyone can take to minimize its spread. National lockdown is the measure taken by Government to create distance among people. But what will be the probable impact of this lockdown on different sectors of our country. This paper aims to analyze impact of COVID-19 on the educational sector of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point for any government is to understand, on the basis of the epidemic curve, the right temporal instant to set up a lockdown and then to remove it. Different strategies are being adopted with distinct shades of intensity. USA and Europe tend to introduce restrictions of considerable temporal length. They vary in time: a severe lockdown may be reached and then gradually relaxed. An interesting alternative is the Australian model where short and sharp responses have repeatedly tackled the virus and allowed people a return to near normalcy. After a few positive cases are detected, a lockdown is immediately set. In this paper we show that the Australian model can be generalized and given a rigorous mathematical analysis, casting strategies of the type short-term pain for collective gain in the context of sliding-mode control , an important branch of nonlinear control theory. This allows us to gain important insights regarding how to implement short-term lockdowns, obtaining a better understanding of their merits and possible limitations. Effects of vaccines administration in improving the control law's effectiveness are also illustrated. Our model predicts the duration of the severe lockdown to be set to maintain e.g. the number of people in intensive care under a certain threshold. After tuning our strategy exploiting data collected in Italy, it turns out that COVID-19 epidemic could be e.g. controlled by alternating one or two weeks of complete lockdown with one or two months of freedom, respectively. Control strategies of this kind, where the lockdown's duration is well circumscribed, could be important also to alleviate coronavirus impact on economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A mathematical model is developed for COVID-19 pandemic. • The parameters of the model are estimated using basis functions. • It's possible to fit the model to real data by time-varying estimation of parameters. • The time-varying parameters result in COVID-19 Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) model. • The LPV model is useful for stability assessment and controller design. Current outbreaks of the COIVD-19 pandemic demonstrate a global threat. In this paper, a conceptual model is developed for the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the people in society are divided into Susceptible, Exposed, Minor infected (Those who need to be quarantined at home), Hospitalized (Those who are in need of hospitalization), Intensive infected (ventilator-in-need infected), Recovered and Deceased. In this paper, first, the model that is briefly called SEMHIRD for a sample country (Italy as an example) is considered. Then, exploiting the real data of the country, the parameters of the model are obtained by assuming some basis functions on the collected data and solving linear least square problems in each window of data to estimate the time-varying parameters of the model. Thus, the parameters are updated every few days, and the system behavior is modeled according to the changes in the parameters. Then, the Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) Model of COVID19 is derived, and its stability analysis is presented. In the end, the influence of different levels of social distancing and quarantine on the variation of severely infected and hospitalized people is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic initially hit Italy at the end of February 2020. In the following two years, there were about 13 million diagnosed cases and more than 150000 deaths. For this period, we have performed a study that evaluates and compares the impacts on public health of the SARSCoV-2 waves at the national and regional levels. Based on contagion trends, we considered four pandemic waves. For each wave, we also analyzed a restricted time interval of one month around the peak. We found an underestimation of diagnosed cases and a saturation of available intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the first wave. The second wave had a more significant impact on public health, highlighting that the system of physical distancing measures was less effective than the lockdown implemented during the first wave. Instead, during the first three peaks, the incidence of ICU bed occupancy was superimposable. In general, odds ratios of case fatality rate showed a more significant risk for males than females from the age of thirty onwards. We verified that regional responses to the health emergency were not homogeneous. In particular, in contrast with the national temporal trend, some regions showed a significant increase in the incidence of deaths. Furthermore, we found positive correlations between availability and occupancy of hospital beds from the second wave onward. In contrast, a significant correlation was verified for ICU bed occupancy and deaths only during the second peak. In light of what happened, it would be desirable to plan an increase in public health funds for new emergencies and issue a rigorous plan to face pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The FLURESP project is a public health research funded by the European Commission, with the objective to design a methodological framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of existing public health measures against human influenza pandemics. A dataset has been specifically collected in the frame of the Italian health system. As most of interventions against human influenza are relavant against other respiratory diseases pandemics, potential interests in COVID-19 are discussed. Methods: Ten public health measures against human influenza pandemics pandemic were selected to be also relevant to other respiratory virus pandemics such as COVID 19: individual (hand washing, using masks), border control (quarantine, fever screening, border closure), community infection (school closure, class dismissal, social distancing, limitation of public transport), reduction of secondary infections (implementation of antibiotic therapy guidelines), pneumococcal vaccination for at-risk people, development of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity, implementation of life support equipments in ICU, screening interventions, vaccination programs targeting health professional and targeting general population. Results: Using mortality reduction as effectiveness criteria, the most cost-effective strategies are "reduction of secondary infections" and "implementation of life support equipment in ICU". The least cost-effective option whatever the level of pandemic events are screening interventions and mass vaccination. Conclusions: A number of intervention strategies against human influenza pandemics appears relevant against every respiratory virus, including the COVID-19 event. Measures against pandemics should be considered according to their expected effectiveness but also their costs for the society because they impose substantial burden to the population, confirming the interest of considering cost-effectiveness of public health measures to enlighten decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic nature of COVID-19 has caused major changes in health, economy, and society globally. Albeit to a lesser extent, contingent access to shops and places to socialize the imposition of social distancing and the use of indoor masks is measures still in force today (more than a year after the start of the pandemic), with repercussions on economic, social, and psychological levels. The fear of contagion, in fact, has led us to be increasingly suspicious and to isolate ourselves from the remainder of the community. This has had repercussions on the perception of loneliness, with significant psychological consequences, such as the development of stress, anxiety, and, in extreme cases, depressive symptoms. Starting from these assumptions, this research was developed with the aim of deepening the perceptions that the participants have of their own mental health, loneliness, fear linked to contagion, and attitudes toward imposed social distancing. In particular, we wanted to analyze whether there is a relationship between perceived fear and the perceived level of mental health, loneliness, and attitude toward social distancing. Finally, we wanted to analyze whether there are differences related to gender, age, marital status, current working mode, and educational qualifications. The research, performed after the diffusion of the vaccination in Italy, lasted 14 days. The participants were 500 Italians who voluntarily joined the study and were recruited with random cascade sampling. The research followed a quantitative approach. The analyzed data, from participants residing throughout the national territory, allow us to return the picture of the perceptions that Italians have of the fear of contagion, of their level of mental health, of loneliness and of their attitude toward social distancing. In particular, the data show that fear of COVID-19 is an emotional state experienced by the entire population and that young people have suffered more from loneliness and have been less inclined to accept the imposed social distancing. The data that emerged should make policymakers reflect on the need to find functional strategies to combat COVID-19 or other health emergency crises whose effects do not affect the psychological wellbeing of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This qualitative study explores the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, travel restrictions and quarantine, on lived experiences during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand (TH), Malaysia (MY), Italy (IT) and the United Kingdom (UK). A total of 86 interviews (TH: n = 28; MY: n = 18; IT: n = 20; UK: n = 20) were conducted with members of the public, including healthcare workers (n = 13). Participants across countries held strong views on government imposed NPIs, with many feeling measures lacked clarity. Most participants reported primarily negative impacts of NPIs on their lives, including through separation, isolation and grief over missed milestones; work-related challenges and income loss; and poor mental health and wellbeing. Nonetheless, many also experienced inadvertent positive consequences, including more time at home to focus on what they most valued in life; a greater sense of connectedness; and benefits to working life. Commonly employed coping strategies focused on financial coping (e.g. reducing spending); psycho-emotional coping (e.g. engaging in spiritual practices); social coping and connectedness (e.g., maintaining relationships remotely); reducing and mitigating risks (e.g., changing food shopping routines); and limiting exposure to the news (e.g., checking news only occasionally). Importantly, the extent to which participants' lived experiences were positive or negative, and their ability to cope was underpinned by individual, social and economic factors, with the analysis indicating some salient differences across countries and participants. In order to mitigate negative and unequal impacts of NPIs, COVID-19 policies will benefit from paying closer attention to the social, cultural and psychological—not just biological—vulnerabilities to, and consequences of public health measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15–47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine. Vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 are allowing the progressive release of physical distancing restrictions in many countries. Here, the authors assess the impact of the vaccination program in Italy and evaluate possible prospects for reopening the society while at the same time keeping COVID-19 under control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply optimal control theory to a generalized SEIR-type model. The proposed system has three controls, representing social distancing, preventive means, and treatment measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze such optimal control problem with respect to real data transmission in Italy. Our results show the appropriateness of the model, in particular with respect to the number of quarantined/hospitalized (confirmed and infected) and recovered individuals. Considering the Pontryagin controls, we show how in a perfect world one could have drastically diminish the number of susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined/hospitalized, and death individuals, by increasing the population of insusceptible/protected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To counter the second COVID-19 wave in autumn 2020, the Italian government introduced a system of physical distancing measures organized in progressively restrictive tiers (coded as yellow, orange, and red) imposed on a regional basis according to real-time epidemiological risk assessments. We leverage the data from the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system and publicly available mobility data to evaluate the impact of the three-tiered regional restriction system on human activities, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalization burden in Italy. The individuals' attendance to locations outside the residential settings was progressively reduced with tiers, but less than during the national lockdown against the first COVID-19 wave in the spring. The reproduction number R(t) decreased below the epidemic threshold in 85 out of 107 provinces after the introduction of the tier system, reaching average values of about 0.95-1.02 in the yellow tier, 0.80-0.93 in the orange tier and 0.74-0.83 in the red tier. We estimate that the reduced transmissibility resulted in averting about 36% of the hospitalizations between November 6 and November 25, 2020. These results are instrumental to inform public health efforts aimed at preventing future resurgence of cases. Italy introduced a system of tiered SARS-CoV-2 control measures in November 2020. Here, the authors quantify the effect of these measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and hospitalisation, and find reductions across all tiers with the greatest impacts associated with the most restrictive level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]