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The establishment of the green belt and road is an inevitable choice to conform to and lead the green and low-carbon cycle development and an inherent requirement for sustainable development. Therefore, we establish an evaluation system of green development oriented to carbon neutrality, and calculate the green development level (GDL) of the provinces along the belt and road in China from 2003 to 2018 by using a three-dimensional evaluation model. In addition, this paper employs the Obstacle Degree Model to identify the main obstacle factors that affect GDL, and provides targeted and differentiated countermeasures and suggestions for improving the regional GDL. Our results suggested that the overall GDL has improved, but not obvious, with a low level. The GDL and coordination degree between different regions exist certain differences, and its spatial pattern is characterized by "high in southeast and northeast, low in southwest and northwest". From a regional perspective, innovation capacity is the key factor that affects the green development of the region in southeast, northeast, northwest and southwest China. Driving economic green transformation and promoting industrial energy conservation and emission reduction through technological innovation are the internal driving forces to achieve regional green sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Carbon neutrality" refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions directly or indirectly produced by a country, business, product, activity or individual over a period of time. Through afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, etc., to offset the carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions generated by itself, to achieve positive and negative offset, to achieve relative "zero emissions", which belongs to the same term as "carbon peaking" in energy saving and emission reduction. "Carbon" means carbon dioxide, and "neutralization" means a positive and negative balance. The carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emitted is offset by afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, which is called "carbon neutrality". Goal decomposition is the process of gradually completing the overall goal according to multiple fields to form a goal system. Target decomposition should be carried out according to the principle of integration and integration. That is, the overall goal is decomposed into sub-goals of different levels and departments, and the synthesis of each sub-goal reflects the overall goal and ensures the realization of the overall goal. This paper aims to study the decomposition of building carbon neutrality goals to sustainable energy development strategies, combining energy conservation and emission reduction with the building industry to reduce environmental pollution and energy waste. Based on the theory of sustainable development, combined with the development characteristics of China's new energy industry, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the sustainable development of the new energy industry from the three systems of economy, society and ecology. Using the new growth theory and the dissipative structure theory, the restricting effect of the depletion of basic energy on economic development and the influence on the alternation of industrial structure are discussed. The experimental results of this paper show that the building energy consumption intensity will reach 1.43tC/10,000 yuan, 1.25tC/10,000 yuan in the ideal scenario, and 1.1tC/10,000 yuan in the low-carbon scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With ecological civilization becoming an increasingly high profile topic, terms such as carbon neutrality and carbon markets have entered the research landscape. Carbon prices are the core of carbon markets. After analyzing the eight carbon trading markets in China, this paper finds that carbon prices are poorly balanced, i.e., they vary widely between pilots. Regional carbon prices show a discrete distribution, and regions with better carbon market development do not have a spatial demonstration effect on neighboring regions. Therefore, in the initial stage of China's unified carbon trading market, the mandatory control threshold amount should be lowered to allow more enterprises can participate in emission reduction. Reliance on nonclean energy should be weakened, investment in environmental protection and emission reduction should be strengthened, the proportion of carbon offset in forestry should be increased, and a carbon tax should be gradually introduced. The paper's overall aim is to bridge regional barriers and narrow differences to achieve a smooth transition from pilot regions to national and global carbon markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming responsibility for emission reduction is an important part of participating in the global governance of climate change. Countries with a carbon neutrality target now cover about 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carrying out fairness evaluations of their carbon neutrality targets provide a strong basis for the global carbon inventory. In this paper, the target years of carbon neutrality for major countries and regions under the global target of 2 °C and 1.5 °C are studied using the burden sharing model. On this basis, this paper simulates the possible pathways of carbon neutrality and evaluates the ambition of emission reduction targets in terms of annual emission reduction, per capita emission, and cumulative per capita emission. The results show that, from the perspective of equity, most of the developing countries cannot meet the global goal of 1.5 °C. The United States and the European Union nations could achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 by continuing their annual emission reductions under their existing NDC targets. However, to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China's annual emission reduction rate from 2030 to 2050 will be 6.7%, and the annual amount of emission reduction accounts for 51% of the global amount under the 1.5 °C target. Meanwhile, China would become the main force behind global cumulative emissions in the following decades. Thus, the emission reduction pathways China chooses will have an important impact on global climate mitigation progress. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper proposes that developed countries and developing countries should explore bilateral or multilateral cooperation in technology and finance in the field of climate change. Under the great pressure to achieve carbon neutrality, China needs to carry out research on the overall emission reduction pathways as soon as possible and clarify the paths at the scale of sectors, industries, provinces, and time stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The essential to achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality target in China lies in the performance of the construction industry. Decoupling economic development from CO2 emissions is the main strategy for reducing emissions in the construction industry. This paper is based on panel data for China and its 30 provinces during 2009–2019. A Tapio decoupling model is constructed to analyze the decoupling state of economic development and CO2 emissions in the construction industry. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is constructed to continue the decomposition of the drivers of the decoupling state and CO2 emissions. The results show that (1) the economic development level of most provinces is positively correlated with their CO2 emissions; (2) Beijing and Jiangsu reach the ideal strong decoupling state, and Heilongjiang has the worst decoupling state. The same type of decoupling state shows a certain aggregation phenomenon in space; (3) economic output plays a critical role in promoting CO2 emissions and decoupling of the construction industry in China and the provinces. The main driver of decoupling is indirect carbon intensity; (4) energy intensity has a greater impact on CO2 emissions reduction in regions with more developed economic levels. Understanding the drivers of the decoupling state in China's construction industry provides a valuable basis for energy efficiency and emission reduction efforts in China and other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy conservation and efficiency enhancement are the options to achieve carbon neutrality in coal‐fired power plants. Wet electrostatic precipitator (WESP) is an important pollutant removal and energy consumption equipment in coal‐fired power plants, which emits a large amount of CO2 indirectly and has a great potential for emission reduction. In this paper, the emission reduction characteristics of multiple pollutants and energy consumption were analyzed by collecting 158 datasets of WESP. The results showed that WESP was effective at removing PM, PM2.5, SO3, droplets, and Hg with the following concentrations at the outlet: 1–10, 3, 1–5, 15, and 5 µg/m3, respectively. The emission factors of different pollutants were sorted in the descending order of size as droplets (average value 51.59 g/MWh), PM (19.15 g/MWh), SO3 (17.32 g/MWh), PM2.5 (8.21 g/MWh), and Hg (9.74 mg/MWh). Specific power/water/alkali consumptions were found as 0.5–2.5×10–4 kWh/m3, 10 × 106 t/m3, and 0.06–9.79 ×10–8 t/m3, respectively. These consumptions were negatively correlated with the inlet concentration of PM/SO3. The average annual emission of CO2 per unit installed capacity by the application of WESP was found to be 13.88 t/MW. It was estimated that the CO2 annual emissions by using WESP in coal‐fired power plants in China were 1.68×106 t. The CO2 annual emission reduction of 7.33×105 t could be achieved through grade 2 energy efficiency WESP (7.83 t/MW) of GB/T 37484‐2019. A further reduction of 3.18×105 t could be achieved if it could be controlled at grade 1 (5.20 t/MW). This study can provide a valuable reference for the subsequent operation of ultra‐low emission units to conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality lays out a grand blueprint for carbon emission reduction and climate governance in China. How to reduce energy consumption is the key to achieving this goal. The economic development and energy consumption show a very large gap at the provincial level, and this paper divides China into six regions (North, Northeast, East, Mid-South, Southwest, and Northwest) and analyzes the dynamic changes and reveals the driving factors that have affected CO2 emission changes from 1997 to 2017. Then, the driving forces including energy intensity, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic activity, and population scale were discussed employing the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) based on provincial panel data. The results show that CO2 emissions from energy consumption show an upward trend, from 4145 Mt in 1997 to 13,250 Mt in 2017, with an annual average growth rate of 1.06%; coal consumption is the main source of CO2 emission. The regions with the highest proportion of CO2 emissions are the East and North, which account for 50% of total emissions. China's CO2 emissions from energy consumption, coal consumption, and output have shown significant spatial autocorrelation at the provincial scale. According to coal consumption, energy consumption CO2 emissions are divided into three stages: phase I (1997–2002), the increase in CO2 emissions in six regions was attributed to significant and positive impacts of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale, the effects of which exceeded those of the energy structure and energy efficiency; phase II (2003–2012), the economic activity effect on CO2 emissions was highest in the East region, followed by the North and Mid-South regions; phase III (2013–2017), the East, Mid-South, and Southwest regions of China were dominated by the positive effects of energy intensity, economic activity, and population scale. The major driver of CO2 emissions is economic activity; the energy efficiency effect is an important inhibitory factor. Regional economic development and energy consumption in China are unbalanced; we conclude that differentiated emission reduction measures should be of particular concern for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a speech at the UN General Assembly on September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that China would peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. China has issued a series of documents on the carbon peaking and neutrality goals, which have become hot issues in society. The concept of carbon peaking is relatively easy to understand, but for that of carbon neutrality, there are some misunderstandings, such as mixed use of different terms and ambiguous scope, classification, and relationships between related concepts, which not only directly affect the implementation of the 'dual carbon' goals in China, but also impede China􀆳s participation in global climate governance and international climate cooperation towards the goal of carbon neutrality. This paper attempts to trace the origin and evolution of the concept of carbon neutrality. It sorts out the different expressions of the carbon neutrality goal, compares the differences and correlations between related concepts, and discusses the key elements and implications of the concept of carbon neutrality. The discussion leads to the following conclusions: ① The concept of carbon neutrality was introduced to the field of global climate governance after carbon trading and carbon offsetting had been proposed in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. ② The concept of carbon neutrality has both narrow and broad senses. Narrowly speaking, it refers to carbon dioxide neutrality, while in a broad sense, it is a collective term for related concepts such as carbon dioxide neutrality, greenhouse gas neutrality, climate neutrality, net zero carbon dioxide emissions, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions. In the international community, the expression 'net zero' is more widely used. ③ To understand the concept of carbon neutrality, four elements need to be grasped: the balance between the source and removal of anthropogenic emissions; multiple implementation entities and their carbon accounting boundaries; the scope of emissions (covering merely carbon dioxide or all greenhouse gases); and carbon neutralization paths including carbon emission reduction, carbon removal, carbon offsets, etc. ④ Clarifying the concept of carbon neutrality is the basis for efficiently implementing the 'dual carbon' goals and promoting international cooperation. The terms used in the legal documents and IPCC guidelines and reports approved in the UNFCCC negotiations are internationally accepted concepts and norms. They are recognized by various governments and serve as an important foundation for scientific research as well as the cognitive basis for international negotiations and actions. The definition and interpretation of the concept of carbon neutrality should be consistent with the international community as much as possible to form a unified understanding that is not only conducive to promoting international cooperation towards carbon neutrality, but also to China' s implementation of the Paris Agreement and advancement of work towards the 'dual carbon' goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has set an ambitious national determined contributions target to peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 and aims to be carbon neutral by 2060. One of China's top energy consumers and CO 2 contributors, the steel industry accounts for 13% of the country's total consumption and 15% of CO 2 emissions. In response to the present global warming trend, there is an urgent need to cut energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to promote low-carbon growth. This paper attempts to provide a detailed analysis of the steel industry's CO 2 emission reduction path to carbon neutrality. Further efforts in terms of industrial structure, material efficiency, energy efficiency, and low- or zero-carbon technologies are required to achieve a low-carbon transition. Given that decarbonization is a significant priority in the steel industry in many countries, this study focuses on the goals and technological paths of low-carbon emissions projects to optimize existing technology priorities and propose development directions. Deep decarbonization is also projected to be achieved by combining CCUS and hydrogen metallurgy technologies. The steel industry requires collaborative efforts to standardize CO 2 emission accounting methodologies and establish a carbon trading system to strengthen carbon emission management. • The steel industry is one of the key contributors to carbon neutrality which needs to accelerate decarbonization. • Reducing energy consumption and CO 2 emissions to keep up with the current global warming trend are reviewed. • This paper selects low-carbon emission projects to optimize current technology priorities and provide development directions. • Policy recommendations and next steps for low-carbon transition are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading, a market-incentive environmental regulation, plays a critical role in leading China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To improve the national carbon emission trading in China, we analyze the effects of the policy in pilot provinces and pilot A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2016. Particularly, to explore the pilot policy's environmental and financial impacts, this paper applies a difference-in-difference method. After the robustness check, the results confirm the carbon emission trading pilot's significantly positive impact at both firm- and province-level regarding carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, corporate innovation seems to partially mediate the relationship between the policy and corporate carbon emission reduction. Plus, the policy promotes firms' market-based financial performance but such impact on accounting-based financial performance is insignificant. Ultimately, the operational mechanism of the policy is proved to be effective. In this paper, industry- and firm-level carbon emissions databases are established via environmental extended input-output table, which fill the research gap of China's firm-level carbon emissions. To ensure the reliability of results, the list of covered firms is sorted out manually in accordance with the disclosed data of seven carbon trading markets. Our results are meaningful for avoid productivity reduction and mechanism re-design in the context of the national carbon emission trading launched in 2021. Specifically, encouraging firms to further improve their productivity and competitiveness by innovation could eventually achieve a win-win situation between economic performance and environmental merits in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for China to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. This paper separately adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique and the Mean Impact Value (MIV) method to analyze the impact of driving factors on the CO 2 emissions of ISI in the historical and future dimensions. Furthermore, this paper establishes the extreme learning machine model optimized by the bat algorithm (BA-BP) to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of ISI in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the low-speed, medium-speed and high-speed development scenarios considering the constraints of carbon neutrality targets. The results reveal that: (1) Production capacity and energy efficiency are important drivers of CO 2 emissions in ISI; (2) The emission reduction situation is not optimistic under the BAU scenario, and it is difficult to accomplish the carbon neutrality goals by 2060; (3) Under the most ideal emission reduction pathway (corresponding to the high-speed development scenario), ISI will reach its peak in 2022 with the peak value of 2143.42 MtCO 2. Compared to the peak year, the CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 654.69 MtCO 2 and 1558.61 MtCO 2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, the achievement of short-term and long-term emission reduction targets depends on production capacity decline and technological progress, respectively. The optimal emission reduction pathway provides a reference for ISI to formulate periodic emission reduction targets. • The improved extreme learning machine is employed to predict the carbon emissions. • The emission reduction pathways are explored under the carbon neutrality target. • Controlling production capacity is a crucial reduction strategy. • The energy rebound effect is supposed to be weakened. • The application of advanced technologies will greatly promote emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the first to propose the deployment of direct air capture (DAC) systems at large airports to provide solutions for achieving carbon neutrality in aviation transportation. Here, an estimating model for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the landing and take-off (LTO) phase of large airports was developed, and the suitability of deploying DAC systems at airports was evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This study found that the annual CO2 emissions of 52 large airports in the LTO phase are about 23 Mt, accounting for about 23% of the total CO2 emissions of civil aviation in China. The four dimensions of airport transportation conditions, meteorological conditions, space resources, and security levels had a decreasing impact on the deployment of DAC systems in that order. The airports with suitable DAC systems are mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Airport Cluster. This study provides a theoretical basis for the deployment of DAC systems at airports, which provides new CO2 emission reduction solutions for the aviation transportation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality and improve emission reduction efficiency, capturing carbon dioxide from the air on a large scale and promoting the application and innovation of carbon capture technology (CCUS) are the most important goals. This study undertakes an annual and comprehensive evaluation of the policy and the technological innovation efficiency (TIE) of 10 listed companies in China using the DEA model and the Malmquist index analysis method. The number of relevant laws and policies is significant, but they are not well coordinated. The static evaluation results indicate that the complete factor production rate is low, generally lower than 0.9, and the technical innovation efficiency is weak, mainly because of technological backwardness. The dynamic evaluation results indicate that the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) each year are primarily affected by changes in technological progress. This suggests that most domestic enterprises are still exploring technological innovation (TI) and operational business models. Finally, this study proposes measures to improve the TIE of carbon capture technology enterprises in China, including giving full play to the role of the government, expanding effective investment, and improving innovational ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has announced its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, which will have a profound impact on its energy and economic systems. During this process, the power sector will play a key role in helping the country on its road towards carbon neutrality. This study develops a multi-regional power dispatch and capacity expansion model to combine long-term capacity expansion with short-term power dispatch. The model is built to optimise the carbon-neutral transition pathway from the perspective of economics, focussing on power system stability and reliability under high penetrations of renewables. Using the case study of North China, the cost-effective methods for power system transitions under the targets of reaching peak emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 are discussed under different scenarios. We find that the future power supply system will rely heavily on renewable energy which will account for more than 89% of power generation. Inner Mongolia will produce more than 84% of power in the North China region. The inter-regional power transmission capacity will be five times higher than its current level. Policy choices will lead to different transition pathways as the early-stage installation decisions will have a lock-in effect on the following carbon emission reduction strategies and determine the importance of technologies adopted in achieving carbon neutrality. Although the transition to a low-carbon economy will result in an increase in cost by 17–19%, it will bring huge climate benefits to the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is an indispensable part of the carbon removal technologies to achieve carbon neutrality for China. Our study focuses on China's CCUS pathways, and draws out three key conclusions: (1) in terms of the greenhouse gases emission reductions required to achieve carbon neutrality and based on current technology projections, the CO2 emission reductions to be achieved by CCUS are 0.6 ∼ 1.4 billion tonnes and 1 ∼ 1.8 billion tonnes in 2050 and 2060, respectively; (2) from the perspective of source-sink matching in China, the emission reduction potential provided by CCUS can basically meet the demand of carbon neutrality target (0.6 ∼ 2.1 billion tonnes of CO2); (3) with the development of technologies, the cost of CCUS in China has a great potential to be reduced in the future. It is expected that by 2030, the technical cost of the whole CCUS process (according to 250 kilometers transportation) in China will be 310 ∼ 770 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2, and by 2060, it will gradually drop to 140 ∼ 410 Chinese Yuan per tonne of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of bio‐ethylene is a promising way to replace fossil‐based ethylene production, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and working towards China's carbon neutrality goals. This study elaborates on five bio‐ethylene technological pathways: first‐ and second‐generation bioethanol dehydration, direct and indirect thermochemical synthesis, and methanol‐to‐olefins (MTO). It retrieves information about them from commercial patents and the scientific literature, and comprehensively assesses their potential for application in large‐scale ethylene production in China. The techno‐economic feasibility of these five technological pathways is discussed in terms of feedstock availability, investment level, technological development level, and political issues such as the carbon neutrality goal to which China's government is committed. Overall, two pathways (indirect thermochemical synthesis and MTO) exhibited competitive minimum ethylene selling prices at 5243 yuan/t (822 USD t–1) and 6767 yuan/t (1061 USD t–1), respectively, of which both are lower than the average ethylene market price of 7000 yuan/t (1098 USD t–1). In comparison with the conventional fossil‐derived ethylene, bio‐ethylene could decrease carbon emission by 3.2%–15.1% under a scenario of 20% bio‐ethylene substitution in 2019, showing promising potential for decarbonizing the ethylene industry and contributing to the achievement of China's carbon neutrality goals. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influencing factors of carbon prices in China's carbon market are analysed. • The influencing factors and historical data are combined to predict the carbon price. • The EEMD-BP-ELM model and the CHINAGEM-E model are constructed and combined. Carbon price is one of the core indicators of the carbon market. Making accurate predictions of carbon prices based on insight into the volatility characteristics of the carbon market will not only provide a scientific basis for investors and regulators to make decisions and greatly promote emission reduction, but also effectively promote the healthy development of the carbon financial market. Based on the historical carbon price data of the national carbon market, this paper constructs the EEMD-BP-ELM model to predict the high and low frequency components of China's future carbon price. On this basis, according to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, the CHINAGEM-E model is used to predict the trend component of the carbon price under the baseline and the 2060 carbon neutral scenarios. Finally, the trend component is combined with the high and low frequency components to obtain the price range from 2022 to 2060. We find that under the baseline scenario, China's carbon price range in 2060 is [343, 785] CNY/tCO2, while under the 2060 carbon neutral scenario, this price range is [1543, 3531] CNY/tCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Constructing a new welfare function considering economy, equity and ecology. • Optimizing carbon emission pathways from multiple perspectives. • Focusing on the emission pathways in China achieving the ambitious targets. With the increasing climate warming, reducing carbon emissions has gradually become a consensus around the world. However, the process of carbon emission reduction will inevitably lead to the transformation of economic structure, industrial structure and energy structure, which will bring huge changes in economic output, employment and other aspects, thus affecting the overall social welfare and equity. Therefore, it is particularly important for each country to determine a scientific and effective carbon emission pathway which take into account both social development and climate targets. As the largest carbon emitter, China has put forward the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this regard, the corresponding carbon emission reduction scenarios are designed according to the new situation of China's emission reduction in this paper, firstly. Furthermore, under the premise of maximizing social welfare, an optimization model which integrating economic growth-equity-environment is developed to determine China's emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Besides quantitatively showing the future total amount and peak value of carbon emissions under different scenarios, the results can also identify its evolution pathway over time. Therein, the peak under most scenarios will concentrate in 2025–2030, which is about 10.7 to 11.8 billion tons. With the increasingly stringent constraints on carbon emission reduction, the cost of emission reduction will increase correspondingly, but the overall social welfare will increase slightly. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission reduction and enlightenments on policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide an up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's iron and steel sector. • Conventional technology is estimated to reduce emissions by only 54%. • Innovative technological retrofitting is the key to net-zero emission pathway. As a hard-to-abate sector, the iron and steel industry is responsible for 22% of China's total carbon emissions and therefore plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking and neutrality target. Nearly 90% of China's iron and steel output is produced with coal-based blast furnaces, which results in high carbon emission intensity. To peak China's carbon emissions and achieve the carbon neutrality target, it is essential to accelerate the application of breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based steel-making. This paper estimates the future CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry in pathways that consider the influence of different technology portfolios, technology maturity, decarbonization of power systems, and future steel production output. The results show that using currently available technology, China's iron and steel industry can reduce CO 2 emissions by more than 50%. However, it cannot achieve the neutrality target without using innovative technologies. By combining conventional strategies with net-zero emission technologies such as CCS and hydrogen metallurgy, approximately 80–90% emission reduction can be achieved, thus leading to a carbon neutrality pathway, which can meet the 1.5°C targets of the carbon budget limit either. In the future, carbon emissions' reduction potential will be influenced by the decarbonization of power systems and the diffusion rate of innovative technologies. To achieve carbon neutrality, it is essential to act sooner and faster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China’s economy, but also demonstrated China’s further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change. Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal (1949-2049), it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints. More specifically, the optimization and realignment of energy structure, industrial structure, production and consumption structure, the rational planning of afforestation, and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China’s economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading system (ETS) is a cost-effective way towards achieving the carbon neutrality goal. Based on the gaps in the research on carbon allowance allocation vis-à-vis the carbon neutrality target, this study examines how to allocate carbon allowances equitably and effectively among Chinese provinces. Different from the previous research that mainly considers responsibility, ability, and potential of equity dimensions, this paper proposes a composite indicator allocation approach based on the equity of history, demand, contribution, and guarantee, and it also employs the entropy method and expert survey method to obtain the indicator weight values in different scenarios. Results show that the carbon allowances of some provinces, such as the forest-rich province of Yunnan, vary significantly in five scenarios, but little differences are observed for some provinces, such as the high historical emissions province of Shanxi. More provinces achieve data envelopment analysis efficiency in the preferred scenario. Compared with the objective scenario, the required emission reduction in the preferred gross domestic product (GDP) scenario is 231 million tonnes less, and the emission reduction cost is 190 billion yuan less. It is suggested that the Chinese government should adopt the allocation scheme in preference for the GDP scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CCUS retrofitting China's power plants potentially reduce 5.5–38.5 gt CO 2 by 2060. • The impact of CCUS deployment time and transport distance is quantified. • Great opportunities for CCUS clusters in five major basins are suggested. • Priority provinces with low-cost opportunities for CO 2 transportation are identified. China's carbon neutrality target before 2060 requires a significant CO 2 emissions reduction for the power industry. The application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) can significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions while avoiding stranded assets loss; however, its contribution to carbon neutrality remains unclear. Based on a CCUS source-sink matching analysis, this paper investigates the role of CO 2 emissions reduction of existing CFPPs in realizing China's carbon neutrality. This research yielded several important findings. (1) During 2020–2060, China's existing 584 CFPPs (670 GW) will totally lock in associated CO 2 emissions of 60.87 Gt CO 2 , and have the CCUS retrofitting potential of 136–560 GW, contributing to the cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction of 5.46–38.48 Gt depending on different deployment time (2025, 2030, and 2035) and maximum transport distance (100 km, 250 km, and 800 km); (2) The best window for retrofitting China's existing CFPPs is quite short and will soon be closed, because the cumulative mitigation potential will drop by 3.76–17.14 Gt (over 40%) if the deployment time is delayed by 10 years from 2025; (3) The geographical consistency of matched CFPPs and storage sites provides great opportunities for the development of CCUS clusters in Bohai Bay Basin, South Huabei Basin, Subei Basin, Songliao Basin, and Junggar Basin; (4) Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui, Hebei, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Tianjin are identified as the highest priority for large-scale CCUS deployment considering that they have low-cost opportunities for CO 2 transportation; (5) CFPPs in Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Jilin are more sensitive to the injection rate capacity of nearby storage sites; (6) 300 km are highly suggested to be the upper limit of transport distance especially for those CFPPs targeting deep saline aquifers (DSA) sites. This study provides low-cost CCUS opportunities for provinces and even power plants, as well as support government policymaking, especially in the appropriate length of onshore pipelines and the locations of CCUS hubs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]