Search

Climate change is causing a shift in long-term weather patterns and altering parameters such as temperature, atmospheric CO2, and precipitation patterns. It is likely to be an indirect effect of greenhouse gases and their enhancement in the atmosphere largely induced by human activities. As poikilothermic animals, insects are highly dependent on environmental conditions, particularly temperature, which affects various aspects of their life. Climate change have a direct impact on insect pests by affecting their population dynamics, diurnal activity, growth rate and diapause. It may lead to a range expansion, increased overwintering survival, more generations per year, elevated risk of invasive insect species and insect-borne plant diseases, and changes in their interactions with host plants and natural predators. Indirectly, changes in climate can modify host plants and competitors, further complicating the effect on insect biology and phenology. Impact of elevated CO2 levels on their host plants can affect growth rates, fecundity, and population densities of insects. Altered precipitation patterns, such as droughts and floods, affect insect survival and diapause. Further, there is significant implications of climate change on different aspects of insect ecology, including insect distribution, behavior, and communication. The climate changes are predicted to alter the geographic ranges and migration behavior of insect species, creating new ecological niches and removing low-temperature barriers. These changes can threaten food security and increase the latitudinal and altitudinal range of crop pests. It also affects natural enemies, which can decrease the plant defense system against insect pests. Additionally, climate change can affect pheromonal communication, including production to behavioral response, in insects that rely on long-range chemical signals for communication. The review paper highlights the potential impacts of climate change on insect biological, phenological and ecological aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Agricultural production across the African continent is subjected to various effects of climate variability. One of the main staple foods in Sub-Saharan Africa is maize. However, limited scientific research has recently focused on understanding the possible effects of hydro-climatic variability on maize production. The aim of the present work was to contribute to policy and climate adaptation, thus reducing the vulnerability of maize production to climate change over Equatorial Africa. This study firstly examined long-term trends of precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (E), and potential evapotranspiration (Ep), as well as surface air temperatures, including the minimum (TMIN) and maximum (TMAX). Secondly, the relationship between maize production and these climate variables was quantified for 18 Equatorial African countries (EQCs) over 1980−2021. To assess the linear trends, Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests were used to quantify the magnitude of the hydro-climatic variable trends at the 5% significance level, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the relation of these climate parameters with the maize production. The annual mean PRE declined at 0.03 mm day−110a−1. Other climate variables increased at different rates: SM at 0.02 mmday−110a−1, E at 0.03 mm day−110a−1, Ep at 0.02 mm day−1 10a−1, TMIN and TMAX at 0.01 °C day−110a−1. A regional analysis revealed heterogeneous significant wet–dry and warm–cool trends over the EQCs. While, spatially, dry and warm climates were observed in the central to eastern areas, wet and warm conditions dominated the western regions. Generally, the correlations of maize production with the E, Ep, TMAX, and TMIN were strong (r > 0.7) and positive, while moderate (r > 0.45) correlations of maize production with PRE and SM were obvious. These country-wide analyses highlight the significance of climate change policies and offer a scientific basis for designing tailored adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on climate change in Turkey caused by energy consumption using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis. The motivation and aim are: Finding evidence of causality for the relationship between energy consumption, growing economies and climate change depending on parameters that vary over time, which are observed and argued through political implications. Temperature and precipitation are the dependent variables for climate change; energy types and Gross Domestic Product per capita are the independent variables for economic determiners. Data was collected annually from various institutions between 1980 and 2019. According to the Toda-Yamamoto test, a negative relationship is determined between renewable energy consumption and temperature in both the short and long term. The results reveal that a 1% increase in renewable energy reduces the temperature by 0.031%. The increase of renewable energy may help in decreasing temperature. Precipitation and non-renewable energy consumption have a positive relationship in both the short and long term, with a 1% increase in non-renewable energy consumption causing a 0.175% increase in precipitation, indicating a negative effect on climate change. Encouraging renewable energy consumption through government incentives can be a powerful solution to decrease the negative effects of climate change in Turkey. • This study examines the relationships between climate change and energy consumption. • It conducts an ARDL analysis and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests in a growing economy. • Renewable energy consumption has a positive effect (reduces) temperature. • Non-renewable energy consumption has a negative effect (increases) precipitation. • Renewable energy consumption is critical mitigating global warming in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical velocity distribution in the atmosphere is asymmetric with stronger upward than downward motion. This asymmetry is important for the distribution of precipitation and its extremes and for an effective static stability that has been used to represent the effects of latent heating on extratropical eddies. Idealized GCM simulations show that the asymmetry increases as the climate warms, but current moist dynamical theories based around small-amplitude modes greatly overestimate the increase in asymmetry with warming found in the simulations. Here, we first analyze the changes in asymmetry with warming using numerical inversions of a moist quasigeostrophic omega equation applied to output from the idealized GCM. The inversions show that increases in the asymmetry with warming in the GCM simulations are primarily related to decreases in moist static stability on the left-hand side of the moist omega equation, whereas the dynamical forcing on the right-hand side of the omega equation is unskewed and contributes little to the asymmetry of the vertical velocity distribution. By contrast, increases in asymmetry with warming for small-amplitude modes are related to changes in both moist static stability and dynamical forcing leading to enhanced asymmetry in warm climates. We distill these insights into a toy model of the moist omega equation that is solved for a given moist static stability and wavenumber of the dynamical forcing. In comparison to modal theory, the toy model better reproduces the slow increase of the asymmetry with climate warming in the idealized GCM simulations and over the seasonal cycle from winter to summer in reanalysis. Significance Statement: Upward velocities are stronger than downward velocities in the atmosphere, and this asymmetry is important for the distribution of precipitation because precipitation is linked to upward motion. An important and open question is what sets this asymmetry and how much it increases as the climate warms. Past work has shown that current theories greatly overestimate the increase in asymmetry with warming in idealized simulations. In this work, we develop a more complete theory and show that it is able to better reproduce the slow increase of the asymmetry with warming that is found over the seasonal cycle from winter to summer and in idealized simulations of warming climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warming is poorly understood. Here, a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a Hadley Cell parameterization is used to isolate the influence of climate feedbacks on changes in zonal‐mean precipitation‐minus‐evaporation (P − E) under greenhouse‐gas forcing. It is shown that cloud feedbacks act to narrow bands of tropical P − E and increase P − E in the deep tropics. The surface‐albedo feedback shifts the location of maximum tropical P − E and increases P − E in the polar regions. The intermodel spread in the P − E changes associated with feedbacks arises mainly from cloud feedbacks, with the lapse‐rate and surface‐albedo feedbacks playing important roles in the polar regions. The P − E change associated with cloud feedback locking in the MEBM is similar to that of a climate model with inactive cloud feedbacks. This work highlights the unique role that climate feedbacks play in causing deviations from the "wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier" paradigm. Plain Language Summary: Climate feedbacks, which act to amplify or dampen global warming, play an important role in shaping how the climate system responds to changes in greenhouse‐gas concentrations. Here, we use an idealized climate model, which makes a simplified assumption about how energy is transported in the atmosphere, to examine how climate feedbacks influence the patterns of precipitation and evaporation change under global warming. We find that the cloud feedback acts to narrow the band of rainfall on the equator known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone and that the surface‐albedo feedback acts to shift the location of maximum rainfall. We also find that the cloud feedback accounts for most of the uncertainty associated with feedbacks in regional hydrological change under warming. The idealized model with a locked cloud feedback also simulates a change in precipitation and evaporation that is similar to a comprehensive climate model with an inactive cloud feedback. Key Points: A moist energy balance model (MEBM) is used to investigate the influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warmingCloud feedbacks act to narrow and increase tropical P − E and are the dominant source of feedback uncertainty in regional hydrological changesThe MEBM with a locked cloud feedback largely replicates a climate model with an inactive cloud feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is a valuable yet scarce resource in agriculture. Optimizing crop production relies on irrigation, but within the framework of sustainable agriculture, efforts should prioritize reducing irrigation water usage. Unfortunately, climate change increases plant water requirements, consequently heightening the need for irrigation. The aim of the research was to estimate the water needs of asparagus during the fern growth period (21 June–31 August) using the Blaney–Criddle method. The study also aimed to determine trends in changing water needs and estimate precipitation deficits. Calculations were carried out for the years 1981–2020 across four provinces in central Poland. The research indicated that water needs varied between 233 mm and 242 mm, depending on the province. Over the forty-year period, all provinces displayed an increasing trend in water needs, with a rise of 3.1 mm to 6.2 mm per decade. Between 21 June and 31 August, rainfall deficits occurred with varying intensity in all provinces during normal, medium dry and very dry years. The values of water needs and rainfall deficit, calculated as a result of the research, are of key importance in the design, construction, and management of drip irrigation systems for asparagus plantations in central Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial-driven processes, including nitrification and denitrification closely related to soil nitrous oxide (N2O) production, are orchestrated by a network of enzymes and genes such as amoA genes from ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA), narG (nitrate reductase), nirS and nirK (nitrite reductase), and nosZ (N2O reductase). However, how climatic factors and agricultural practices could influence these genes and processes and, consequently, soil N2O emissions remain unclear. In this comprehensive review, we quantitatively assessed the effects of these factors on nitrogen processes and soil N2O emissions using mega-analysis (i.e., meta-meta-analysis). The results showed that global warming increased soil nitrification and denitrification rates, leading to an overall increase in soil N2O emissions by 159.7%. Elevated CO2 stimulated both nirK and nirS with a substantial increase in soil N2O emission by 40.6%. Nitrogen fertilization amplified NH4+-N and NO3−-N contents, promoting AOB, nirS, and nirK, and caused a 153.2% increase in soil N2O emission. The application of biochar enhanced AOA, nirS, and nosZ, ultimately reducing soil N2O emission by 15.8%. Exposure to microplastics mostly stimulated the denitrification process and increased soil N2O emissions by 140.4%. These findings provide valuable insights into the mechanistic underpinnings of nitrogen processes and the microbial regulation of soil N2O emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of climate warming significantly affects agroclimatic resources and agricultural production. We study the agroclimatic resources and their variability on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia). The Bashkortostan has a high agricultural potential and holds a leading position in the country in the production of grain crops, potatoes, milk, and honey. Currently, no detailed studies have been conducted for this area to assess the effects of global climate change on agro-climatic resources. World experience shows such research becomes strategically important for regions with powerful agricultural production. We used the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C, the G.T. Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, and the Ped aridity (humidification) index as agroclimatic indicators. We used data of long-term meteorological observations of 30 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2020. We revealed the long-term dynamics of the agroclimatic indicators and the spatial and temporal regularities in their distribution on the territory of Bashkortostan. There is a steady increase in the sums of average daily air temperatures above 0 and 10 °C. Against this background, aridity increases, which is especially manifested in the southern parts of the Republic of Bashkortostan. We assessed the impact of agroclimatic indicators on the main types of agricultural crops in the republic. We revealed that the greatest positive impact on the yield of oilseeds, cereals, and industrial crops is made by precipitation at the beginning (r = 0.50, r = 0.44, and r = 0.52, respectively) and in the middle of the growing season (r = 0.55, r = 0.76, and r = 0.51, respectively). Temperature and precipitation during the growing season have a complex effect on cereals. This is proven by correlations with HCS and the Ped index (r = 0.45 and r = −0.56, respectively). Aridity at the beginning of the growing season affects the yield of oilseeds and potatoes. This is confirmed by correlations with the Ped index (r = −0.49 and r = −0.52, respectively). In general, the aridity of the growing season has a significant impact on the yield of cereals (r = −0.57). Negative relationships have been found between the air temperature growing season and the yield of potatoes (r = −0.50) and cereals (r = −0.53). The results of the study were compared with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service database. We identified climate trends under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. These scenarios should be taken into account when developing plans for the adaptation of agriculture in the Republic of Bashkortostan to changes in the regional climate. Maximum decrease in precipitation is established for the RCP 6.0 scenario. This can have an extremely negative impact on crop yields. This problem is especially relevant for the southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The information presented in the study will allow for a more effective adaptation of the agricultural sector to current and future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957-2021; n 5 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m. 0.508C decade21). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature-sea ice feedbacks on theNorth Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska's climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show; 50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mt. Munkhkhairkhan is the most crucial region for understanding climate and glaciation changes in Mongolia. This study investigated the relationship between glacial area changes and the climate elements of Mt. Munkhkhairkhan in the Mongolian-Altai Mountains using a remote sensing approach, in-situ observations, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Innovative Trend Analysis Method (ITAM), Sen's slope estimator test, and statistical analysis. The study results showed that for the last 30 years, the annual average air temperature of Mt. Munkhkhairkhan has been slightly increasing. Total annual precipitation (mainly snow) in the mountain area decreased from 1990 to 2000, but since 2000, a significant increase in precipitation levels has appeared. For the last 30 years, the glacial area has decreased by 32% to 11.7 km2. Multiple regression results showed a strong correlation between Temperature, Precipitation, and Glaciers (Multiple R = 0.69, R2 = 0.48). Ruther indicated that Temperature (t = −2.332, p = 0.036) and Precipitation (t = −3.212, p = 0.007) were significant predictors in the model. Air temperature and precipitation explained 48 percent of the change in the glacier area, and R = 0.69 is a strong correlation. The glaciers and snow area in the study area have changed due to climate warming and precipitation changes and are located in arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia. This study of Mt. Munkhairkhan shows that climate change significantly impacts glaciers and snow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of zonal-mean precipitation minus evaporation (P 2 E) to global warming is investigated using a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a simple Hadley cell parameterization. The MEBM accurately emulates zonal-mean P 2 E change simulated by a suite of global climate models (GCMs) under greenhouse gas forcing. The MEBM also accounts for most of the intermodel differences in GCM P 2 E change and better emulates GCM P 2 E change when compared to the "wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier" thermodynamic mechanism. The intermodel spread in P 2 E change is attributed to intermodel differences in radiative feedbacks, which account for 60%-70%of the intermodel variance, with smaller contributions from radiative forcing and ocean heat uptake. Isolating the intermodel spread of feedbacks to specific regions shows that tropical feedbacks are the primary source of intermodel spread in zonal-mean P 2 E change. The ability of the MEBM to emulate GCM P 2 E change is further investigated using idealized feedback patterns. A less negative and narrowly peaked feedback pattern near the equator results in more atmospheric heating, which strengthens the Hadley cell circulation in the deep tropics through an enhanced poleward heat flux. This pattern also increases gross moist stability, which weakens the subtropical Hadley cell circulation. These two processes in unison increase P 2 E in the deep tropics, decrease P 2 E in the subtropics, and narrow the intertropical convergence zone. Additionally, a feedback pattern that produces polar-amplified warming partially reduces the poleward moisture flux by weakening the meridional temperature gradient. It is shown that changes to the Hadley cell circulation and the poleward moisture flux are crucial for understanding the pattern of GCM P 2 E change under warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various climatic factors and their interactions affect China's snow depth alterations. However, a measure of the relative importance of climatic factors regarding the variance in snow depth is lacking. Here, we use a heretofore largest dataset, quality‐controlled daily observations from 1,665 meteorological stations, and statistical analyses to identify proxy drivers and their contributions regarding regional variability and trends in China's snow depth and snow depth‐climate relationships from 1951 to 2019. Results show that seasonal snow depth alterations are substantial in China and caused by various climatic drivers. In winter, observed positive trends in the northwest and northeast of China mainly respond to augmentation in solid precipitation and snow accumulation in fall. For the Tibetan Plateau, the negative snow depth anomaly seems to respond to the rising air temperature below the freezing point along with some secular changes in solid precipitation and shallower fall snowpacks. All these trends in winter snow depth over the northwest, northeast, and Tibetan Plateau of China account approximately for 30% of the total interannual variance in spring snow depth in these regions. In the milder central north and south of China, snow accumulation is not evident. Besides solid precipitation and rising air temperature below the freezing point, atmospheric humidity is also notable for its effect on the interannual variance in winter snow depth in these regions. In spring and fall, however, the negative effect of warming climate on snow depth becomes remarkably more important. It seems that about 13–33% (12–50%) of the total interannual variance in the widespread decrease (insignificant perturbation), except for some weak increases in the northeast region (decreases in the Tibetan Plateau), of China's spring (fall) snow depth are caused by the rising air temperature below the freezing point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled climate models project robust wintertime wetting trend over midlatitude East Asia under global warming scenarios, but the projected change in precipitation shows large intermodel uncertainty over subtropical East Asia from southern China to southwestern Japan. Based on an ensemble of climate models participating in CMIP6, this study shows that the weakened southern branch westerly jet (SWJ) on the southern side of Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a key role in suppressing subtropical East Asian precipitation. The SWJ is deflected into southwesterly wind on the southeastern side of TP, bringing ascent and precipitation to subtropical East Asia primarily through isentropic gliding. As a result of the poleward and upward shift of the planetary-scale westerly jet under global warming, the SWJ becomes weaker and it acts to suppress subtropical East Asian precipitation by weakening the southwesterly wind and ascent. The SWJ-precipitation linkage also exists on interannual time scales, but the sensitivity of precipitation to interannual SWJ variability is systematically underestimated by the models compared with observation. The combined effects of the change in SWJ strength and the sensitivity of precipitation to SWJ explain about 40% of the intermodel spread of the projected precipitation changes. Observational constraint on the SWJ--precipitation relationship amplifies the projected drying trend and narrows the intermodel spread. It shows that the regional-averaged precipitation over subtropical East Asia decreases by 3.3% per degree of warming, and the amplitude of precipitation reduction over subtropical East Asia (southern China) is about 1.4 (3.4) times the raw projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The corresponding relationships between temperature, precipitation, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentration in a typical ombrotrophic peatland in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia, were quantitatively characterized by field sampling tests validated with simulation experiments. The PAH concentrations of peat cores in Dajiuhu peatland ranged from 262 to 977 ng·g−1, with a mean value of 536 ± 284 ng·g−1. PAHs were mainly composed of 2–3 ring PAHs, accounting for 31.7% ± 2.00% and 31.7% ± 5.00%, respectively. The concentration of PAHs in peat cores showed a significant decrease with increasing temperature, while the low molecular weight PAHs (LMW-PAHs) were more sensitive to temperature changes compared to the high molecular weight PAHs (HMW-PAHs). Besides, with the increase of quantity and velocity of leaching liquid, PAHs in peat were first transferred in the form of attached large-size particles and then gradually entered the aqueous phase. According to the IPCC projections of global warming, Dajiuhu peatland will release 956 ± 26.3 kg·°C−1 PAHs into gas phase during 2030–2052, and a conservative projection based on local temperature trends showed that 459 ± 12.6 kg·°C−1 PAHs will be released into gas phase by 2047 in Dajiuhu peatland. The projected release fluxes of PAHs in Dajiuhu peatland with precipitation volume and precipitation velocity are 381 ± 201 kg·100 mm−1 and 1052 ± 167 kg·min·mL−1, respectively, which are primarily from peat into particulate and aqueous phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms associated with fast‐moving mesoscale convective systems that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection‐permitting regional model ensemble simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo‐global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5‐8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2‐hr delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. The derecho shrinkage is attributed to lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC. By consuming energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Plain Language Summary: Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming by applying the pseudo‐global warming approach to convection‐permitting regional model simulations. The study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Compared to simulations of the derecho that was observed, the derecho would shrink and decay earlier in future environments with warming. Key Points: In convection‐permitting simulations, the June 2012 North American derecho shrinks in the first half of its lifecycle under future warmingFuture warming may potentially cause the premature decay of the derecho and reduce its destructive impact in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areasThe decay is due to strengthening of an isolated deep convection event, consuming energy and moisture and hindering the derecho development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uneven water resource distribution between different areas across the globe has been worsening. The area where the eastern margin of the Asian westerly jet area meets the low-altitude area of the transition zone (which has a temperate continental monsoon climate) is delicate and sensitive to climate change. An urgent issue is to determine the climate change pattern of this area in the past. On the basis of core samples of four tree species in four typical regions of this joint area, we built a standardized chronological table according to tree-ring width and reconstructed the cumulative precipitation from March to August series in the above area in the past 203–343 years. Since the reconstructed results corresponded well to climate events and drought and flooding periods in historical records, the reconstructed model was stable and reliable. The results were as follows: The precipitation in the study area from east to the west in the growth season has changed dramatically, and the period has gradually shortened. In the 19th century, there was a wet period in the high-latitude area. From the 19th century to the 1950s, the entire study area experienced a significant dry period that lasted for 20–45 years; the starting time of the dry period was gradually delayed from the west to the middle, and the wet period gradually grew shorter at an increasing rate. In the past half-century, this area experienced a significant drought period, and the drying rate was higher in the west and east regions than in the central region. In the past two centuries, the precipitation varied significantly in the study area, and the wet period played a dominant role, growing gradually shorter. The middle and west regions of the Asian westerly jet area and the high-latitude regions of the transition zone all experienced significant wetting or drying processes in the first half of the 19th century, and since then, all areas experienced significant drying processes under the influence of global warming, which may be intensified by the westerly circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens biodiversity in a range of ways, including changing animal body sizes. Despite numerous examples of size declines related to increasing temperatures, patterns of size change are not universal, suggesting that one or more primary mechanisms impacting size change are unknown. Precipitation is likely to influence the size different from and in conjunction with changes in temperature, yet tests of the interaction between these variables are rare. In this study, we show that a crossover interaction between temperature and precipitation impacts the body size of frogs as the climate warms. Using more than 3000 museum frog specimens from Borneo and climate records spanning more than 100 years, we found that frogs are larger in wet conditions than in dry conditions at cool temperatures, suggesting that resource availability determines body size at colder temperature. Conversely, frogs are larger in dry conditions than in wet conditions at warm temperatures, resulting in a crossover to desiccation resistance as the main determinant of body size as climates warm. Our results demonstrate that global warming can alter the impact of precipitation on life‐history traits. We suggest that increased attention be paid to such interactive effects of climate variables, to identify complex mechanisms driving climate‐induced size changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manifestations of global warming in the Arctic include amplifications of temperature increases and a general increase in precipitation. Although topography complicates the pattern of these changes in regions such as Alaska, the amplified warming and general increase in precipitation are already apparent in observational data. Changes in snow cover are complicated by the opposing effects of warming and increased precipitation. In this study, high-resolution (0.25°) outputs from simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, were analyzed for changes in snow under stabilized global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. Future changes in snowfall are characterized by a north–south gradient over Alaska and an east–west gradient over Eurasia. Increased snowfall is projected for northern Alaska, northern Canada and Siberia, while milder regions such as southern Alaska and Europe receive less snow in a warmer climate. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the land area poleward of 55°N will experience a reduction in snow. The approximate threshold of global warming for a statistically significant increase in temperature over 50% of the pan-Arctic land area is 1.5 °C. The corresponding threshold for precipitation is approximately 2.0 °C. The global warming threshold for the loss of high-elevation snow in Alaska is approximately 2.0 °C. The results imply that limiting global warming to the Paris Agreement target is necessary to prevent significant changes in winter climates in Alaska and the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is one of the most crucial climate components in boreal summer. The future potential changes in the SASM have great importance for climate change adaption and policy setting in this populous region. To understand the SASM changes and their link with the global warming of 1.58-58C above the preindustrial level, we investigate the changes in the SASM circulation and precipitation based on a large-ensemble simulation conducted with Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2). With the global mean surface temperature (GMST) increase, the large-ensemble mean of SASM circulation is projected to weaken almost linearly while the precipitation and precipitable water are projected to enhance quasi-linearly. A double anticyclone along the tropical Indian Ocean is a major anomalous circulation pattern for each additional degree of warming and is responsible for the weakening of the lower-level westerlies. The decreased upper-level land-sea thermal contrast (TCupper) is the main thermal driver for the weakening of the SASM circulation while the lower-level thermal contrast contributes little. The nonlinearly decreased TCupper is mainly related to the temperature response to the increased CO2 forcing and convection-induced latent heat release in the tropics. The increase in the SASMprecipitation is mainly due to the quasilinearly increased positive contribution of the thermodynamic component, while the dynamic component has a negative impact. Both horizontal moisture advection and moisture convergence contribute to the precipitation increase, and moisture convergence plays a dominant role. These results provide new insight that the SASM changes can be roughly scaled by the GMST changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is the world's largest bay area in terms of land area and population, which has been increasingly suffering from weather and climate extremes under global warming. It is thus desired to produce reliable high-resolution climate information at a regional scale in order to enhance resilience to climate change over the GBA. For the first time, this study develops the multi-decadal nested-grid climate projections at a convection-permitting scale for the GBA, and assesses the abilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 36-, 12- and 4 km resolutions in representing precipitation, temperature and their extremes. Our findings indicate the added value of the convection-permitting WRF model for simulating the spring and summertime precipitation as well as extreme heavy rainfall events with daily amounts larger than 30 mm over the GBA. Increasing the spatial resolution of the WRF model does not necessarily lead to a significant improvement on temperature simulations. In addition, our findings reveal that the GBA is expected to have an increasing number of heavy and extreme heavy rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century. Moreover, the GBA is projected to have a large temperature change across different seasons, and an enhanced warming will appear in autumn. The GBA is also expected to have more summer days with longer durations, thereby leading to an increasing risk of heatwaves and heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirty-year periods are treated in climatology as spans with relatively representative and stable climatic patterns, which can be used for calculating climate normals. Annual and seasonal series of circulation types were used to compare two 30-year sub-periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, the second one being strongly influenced by recent global warming. This analysis was conducted according to the objective classification of circulation types and the climatic characteristics of sunshine duration, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed as calculated for the territory of the Czech Republic during the 1961–2020 period. For both sub-periods, their statistical characteristics were calculated, and the statistical significance of differences between them was evaluated. There was a statistically significant increase in the annual frequencies of anticyclonic circulation types and a significant decrease in cyclonic circulation types during 1991–2020 compared with 1961–1990. Generally, in both 30-year periods, significant differences in means, variability, characteristics of distribution, density functions, and linear trends appear for all climatic variables analysed except precipitation. This indicates that the recent 30-year "normal" period of 1991–2020, known to be influenced more by recent climate change, is by its climatic characteristics unrepresentative of the stable climatic patterns of previous 30-year periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used CMIP6 GCMs to quantify climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across water management zones (WMZs) in Uganda. Future changes are assessed based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 over the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Both precipitation and PET are generally projected to increase across all the WMZs. Annual PET in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s will increase in the ranges 1.1–4.0%, 4.8–7.9%, 5.1–11.8%, and 5.3–17.1%, respectively. For the respective periods, annual precipitation will increase in the ranges 4.0–7.8%, 7.8–12.5%, 7.9–19.9%, and 6.9–26.3%. The lower and upper limits of these change ranges for both precipitation and PET are, respectively, derived under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Climate change will impact on PET or precipitation disproportionately across the WMZs. While the eastern WMZ (Kyoga) will experience the largest projected precipitation increase especially towards the end of the century, the southern WMZ (Victoria) exhibited the largest PET increase. Our findings are relevant for understanding hydrological impacts of climate change across Uganda, in the background of global warming. Thus, the water sector should devise and implement adaptation measures to impede future socioeconomic and environmental crises in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]