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Construction project cost overrun is a common problem in the construction industry. The cost of construction projects is thought to have increased by approximately 33% on average. Several types of research on construction project cost overrun have been conducted and these generally rely on historical data. However, whilst each project has its own project characteristics and cost trend, real-time project cost data are more reliable to forecast its own cost trend. This paper proposes a real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model to predict cost overrun risk based on project-owned cost performance data and the corrective actions if adopted. The cost overrun events occurrence in this model was assumed to follow a Poisson arrival pattern. Real-time HMM with a particle filter was used to run the simulation. One SRC building project in Taiwan was used for model validation and comparison. The posterior probabilities from the real-time HMM model were highly consistent with the cost overrun ratios of real construction projects. The proposed cost overrun prediction model could provide an early alert of cost overruns to the project manager. Based on the survey of cost overrun risk and significantly influential factors, we propose effective cost management plans to alleviate the frequency of project cost overrun. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One common problem in the construction industry is project cost overrun. Cost overrun can have significant impacts on financial profitability, project completion, project quality, and stakeholder satisfaction. The average percentage of construction project overrun can vary widely depending on the project type, size, complexity, and location. Many approaches can be adopted to prevent or mitigate project cost overrun, and one of them is a more accurate cost estimate and prediction. Several studies on the construction project cost overrun estimation and prediction have been conducted based on historical data; nevertheless, each project has its project characteristics and cost trend. Real-time, project-specific cost data are more reliable for forecasting the cost trend of the project itself. There are many influence factors that may interdependently affect the construction project cost overrun. This paper proposes a real-time predict cost overrun risk prediction model based on the influence factors and their interdependence as well as the corrective actions if adopted. This study used a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to formulate problem architecture and to use the input–output hidden Markov method (I/O HMM) with particle filter (PF) to run inference. Six building and mass rapid transit projects in Taiwan were used as model validation and comparison. The posterior probabilities from the DBN-based cost overrun risk prediction model were highly consistent with the cost overrun ratios of real construction projects. Moreover, it is superior to other prediction models in terms of accuracy. The proposed model could provide project managers with an early alert for cost overrun. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the critical factors of project success is the interface management. Past project interface management mainly relies on knowledge and experience of the project managers. The existing studies of project interface management also mainly focused on the definition and the classification of project interfaces. There is no workable and flexible framework for construction interface problem identification and solutions. This study conducted an analogic study of contradiction matrix at Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) to develop such a framework. This research collected around six hundred interface management cases from civil works and building projects. For comparison, this research defined an experimental group (TRIZ case) and a control group (experience-oriented solution case) based on the concept of clinical experiments in medical science to evaluate and improve the rationality of the matrix. Subsequently, based upon the theory of information retrieval (IR), this research conducted statistical evaluation and TRIZ features remedies to develop generalized construction interface problem identification and solutions. For solving project management interface problems, the TRIZ-analogic construction interface problem identification and solutions framework provides a systematic approach to develop more robust solutions for interface problems in construction engineering rather than just simply relying on intuitive experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]