1. Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
- Author
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Ma, Shizhao, Chen, Yi, Lai, Xiulan, Lan, Guanghua, Ruan, Yuhua, Shen, Zhiyong, Zhu, Qiuying, and Tang, Shuai
- Subjects
BASIC reproduction number ,AIDS ,HIV ,AIDS prevention ,AIDS education ,ANTIRETROVIRAL agents ,EPIDEMICS - Abstract
To control the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China, Guangxi government launched the 5-year Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP, Phase I: 2010-2014, Phase II: 2015-2020). In the project, three measures are implemented, such as great improvements of the coverage of HIV/AIDS education, promotion of HIV voluntary counseling and testing, and enhancement of antiretroviral treatment. In this paper, we explore the effects of the three measures of GACP by construction of a Susceptible-Infected-Diagnosed-Treated population compartments model and via evaluation of the basic reproduction number derived from the model. A computational framework is developed for estimating the model parameters based on the HIV surveillance data, with application of the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method and Nonlinear Least Squares method. By estimating the new infections and evaluating the basic reproduction number, we find that the implementation of the three measures of GACP has a significant effect on controlling the rise of HIV/AIDS cases and the epidemic trend. Compared with HIV voluntary counseling and testing, strengthening HIV/AIDS education and expanding the coverage of antiretroviral treatment show a greater impact on HIV/AIDS epidemic control, which provides a reference project for other provinces with a similar epidemic situation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. At the same time, our research fills the current research gap for the evaluation of large-scale AIDS prevention and control projects in developing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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