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Among our findings: * Small firms tend to pledge real estate collateral,medium-sized firms tend to pledge accounts receivablesand blanket liens, and large firms tend raise unsecuredfinancing. Economic Brief We identify the firm-level and aggregate effects ofcollateral price shocks on business lending andinvestment -- also known as the collateral channel-- using detailed bank-firm-loan level data that allow usto observe the pledging of real estate collateral and tocontrol for credit demand and supply conditions. Results We identify the firm-level effects of the collateralchannel conditioning on firm-level demand factors andbank-level supply conditions using detailedbank-firm-loan level data. Instead, most large firms use debt contractsthat are unsecured or based on earnings-based collateral,whose recovery value depends on the continuation value ofthe firm rather than specific assets. [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates whether business cycles cause financial cycles or vice versa. We also assess whether the US plays a leading role in causing the domestic business and financial cycles of other countries. The literature has established that business and financial cycles are linked through several channels such as credit constraints, the real effects of financial information and the reversal of overoptimistic expectations. Our analysis evaluates the direction of Granger causality using a novel approach based on the mixed-frequency vector autoregression model for the G7 countries. Our approach exploits the fact that real economic activity measured by industrial production is observed at a higher frequency than aggregate credit. We find strong evidence of bidirectional causality between the business and financial cycles, especially in recessions. Furthermore, the US is a global leader since the US business cycle significantly affects other countries' business cycles, especially in terms of expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests potential determinants of the development of the insurance sector. Using a rich dataset for 24 European countries spanning two decades, we identify a set of macrofinancial factors that are the most robust predictors of growth of gross premiums in the life and non-life insurance sectors. We show that both life and non-life premiums co-move with the business cycle and are positively related to higher savings and a more developed financial system. In addition, we provide new evidence on the role of market concentration and price effects. We find that market concentration matters only for life insurance, whereas the price channel is significant only for non-life insurance. From a policy perspective, our empirical estimates can be used to refine the existing macroprudential stress tests of the insurance sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a large developing country, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and its relationship to trade have always been subjects of extensive scrutiny in academic circles. With the continuous advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI), the pace of overseas expansion by Chinese firms has accelerated. This paper theoretically constructs a firm heterogeneity model of China's OFDI and bilateral trade, and conducts research based on panel data of China's OFDI in countries along the BRI from 2003 to 2019. The results show that China's OFDI can substantially enhance the potential for bilateral trade, and this conclusion remains robust after overcoming endogeneity and economic fluctuations. In a heterogeneity test, China's OFDI in countries along the "Land Silk Road" is shown to have a greater effect on trade potential than in countries along the "Maritime Silk Road." In the controlled test, China's OFDI to BRI countries has a greater role in upgrading trade potential than investment in other trading powerhouses. China's OFDI can promote the economic development of host countries along the BRI by strengthening the potential for bilateral trade. The results of this study are not only conducive to the "going global" of Chinese enterprises but also of practical significance for host countries to achieve high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Equity research in experimental psychology reveals investors' overreactions to bad news events. This study of asymmetric price structures in equity markets investigates whether such behavior predicts stock returns in an emerging market of India. Design/methodology/approach: The research decomposes Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex returns into Extremely Positive Returns (EPR) and Extremely Negative Returns (ENR) based on extreme values at first and then tests their lead–lag relations. Findings: The empirical finding is consistent with the existing evidence of asymmetric news effects on stock returns in India. In precise, ENR robustly predicts one-month-ahead EPR for the sample period from January 1991 to March 2020. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation ratios and business cycle variables. Practical implications: The paper explains the rationale of extreme value modeling in price forecasting. Investors can find additional utility gains from market cycle information while predicting extreme returns in Indian stock market. Originality/value: The paper is unique to understand business cycle effects in extreme return reversals in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the future of the Stability and Growth Pact (hereafter SGP). Although Neoclassical economic models argue that strict fiscal and monetary rules minimize moral hazard and crowding out, in practice many governments adopt fiscal expansion (in recent years in the form of non-standard monetary measures) to mitigate market failures, consequently rethinking monetary rules and targets. Government spending and countercyclical policies are essential tools for soothing business cycles and other market failures. To this end, we empirically test whether current and past forms of the SGP have led to greater convergence, while we critically assess and investigate a possible SGP reform. By adopting more flexible rules, in terms of government spending and fiscal expansion, the Economic and Monetary Union (hereafter EMU) could yield multiple positive spillover effects in long-term economic growth under specific terms and conditions, such as green conditionalities. We conclude that to mitigate the triple crisis threat (economic, environmental and health), what is mostly needed are reforms in the form of fiscal federalism, such as common debt issuance (Eurobonds) that enhance the ability of the EMU to tackle the consequences of the aforementioned crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper experimentally investigates the provision of real-time feedback about school assignments during the preference reporting period in three widely employed mechanisms: deferred acceptance, top trading cycles, and the Boston mechanism. Adaptive models predict that greater sensitivity to tentative assignments during the reporting period will produce more equilibrium assignments in all three mechanisms. Consistent with adaptive predictions, real-time assignment feedback consistently increased equilibrium assignments but did not increase truthful reporting. These findings suggest that providing feedback about assignments during the preference reporting period could help student assignment mechanisms more reliably achieve policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we employ a model using spatially lagged explanatory variables (SLX) to model poverty in the rural South – a region with large pockets of counties with persistent and high poverty. The SLX model allows for separation of spillovers from non-metro counties versus those from metro counties, something missing from the existing literature. We employ various economic and demographic variables to model poverty rates pre- and post-Great Recession. We also estimate separate models for non-metro counties and metro counties. There were no significant impacts from the local metro county before the recession and no significant local impacts in non-metro counties after the recession. Before the recession, factors from surrounding metro counties contributed greater impact on both non-metro and metro poverty. After the recession, there were more significant factors from surrounding non-metro counties that displayed a greater impact. The results suggest that poverty is unique across space and time. Poverty reduction programs should not only adopt a discretionary strategy that accounts for geographical variation, but also consider the timing of business cycles. Our research suggests a universal, all-encompassing strategy toward poverty may be less than ideal in the rural south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us--for the first time--to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession, inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men's earnings changes are on average smaller than women's but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men's earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right-skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self-employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs' income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic, and less dependent on average past income than workers' income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In examining an economic fluctuation, researchers often refer to the theories of impaired access to capital which mostly explain, from the perspective of bank lending supplies, a shock in firm's access to investment would decrease its capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period. However, some studies show that this is not always the case. A demand shock theory can explain the decrease in firm's capital expenditures and net debt issuance during crisis period, but there should be no causal link between the two. This is because firms naturally do not invest during crisis period because of a decrease in investment wealth during crisis period. This paper aims to examine these theories with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach: The change in firms' capital expenditure and net debt issuance is analyzed using a non-parametric difference-in-difference and matching estimator across four firm-dimensions to see whether the implications of the supply shock theory apply to the current crisis or if that firms naturally do not invest during the crisis. In addition, this paper provides the result of panel regression to confirm the causal link between firms' investment funds and capital expenditure, with an addition of consumer confidence index to accommodate the implications of the demand shock theory. Findings: The results of this paper show that the implications of the supply shock theory cannot explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. Rather, the results suggest that firms naturally do not want to invest during the crisis and that the demand shock can better explain the economic fluctuation during the Covid-19 crisis. This is confirmed by the result of panel regression which shows that only consumer confidence index has a significant positive relationship with firms' capital expenditure. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the theory of impaired access to capital with respect to the Covid-19 crisis in Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By employing data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets for the period of 2019–2020, this paper examines the relationship between the degree of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on firms’ cash-holdings levels in China. We find that firms that are severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have higher current cash holdings levels, suggesting that the more positive (negative) the management tone in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic impact, the lower (higher) the firm’s current cash holdings. However, future corporate cash holdings decrease considerably irrespective of the corporate sentiment towards COVID-19. The positive sentiment of each firm’s management team towards the supply chain and the government policies results in a relative reduction of current cash holdings, whereas the severe impact on operating performance, especially the impact of the outbreak on the supply chain, demand, production and operations, and government policies, reduces the firm’ s future cash holdings. In addition, the impact of the pandemic has increased the current cash holdings of state-owned enterprises and reduced the future cash holdings of non-state-owned enterprises. Meanwhile, companies located in a city with a higher density of population or companies that experience relatively higher competition in the industry tend to undergo a severer impact on their current and future cash holdings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this study sheds the light on stimulating the vitality of enterprise investment and promoting the domestic economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business entities conduct operations and implement the strategy in a turbulent business environment. The modern business environment is characterized by rapid change and unpredictability of trends caused by both systemic factors (development of the digital economy) and non-systemic shocks (COVID-19 pandemic, sharp fluctuations in commodity prices, Russian armed aggression in Ukraine). That causes threats to companies` financial security of companies. This paper aims to highlight the features of supporting financial security at the micro-level in the context of the digital economy's development and to formulate proposals for ensuring companies` financial security, taking into account the challenges of the exogenous and endogenous environment. The paper presents issues of the digital economy's development, its impact on macro-and microlevel economic processes, and cause-and-effect relationships with the state of companies` financial security. The influence mechanism of high-tech companies` development in the context of financial security at the micro and macro levels is revealed with a special focus on the area of changes in capital expenditures and economic cycle phases. Emphasis is placed on the importance of using contemporary tools to analyze the essence and consequences of the phenomena inherent in the digital economy in the context of ensuring companies` financial security. As a result of the analysis, a model for managing a company's financial security under digital economy conditions is developed. The proposed model covers both micro- and macro-blocks of ensuring financial security. The importance of a combination of qualitative and qualitative methods for assessing a company's financial security under conditions of the digital economy is emphasized. Within the framework of the model, a process approach to ensuring financial security at the company level is highlighted. The results of the paper may be used by state and local authorities to develop the principles of financial security management at the micro level under digital economy conditions, as well as by representatives of the scientific community to study the issues of companies` financial security under conditions of the digital society development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the convergence among the European countries, including both Eurozone as well as non-Eurozone economies, is investigated in this paper. To do so, we construct correlation-based networks and study them by employing the Threshold Weighted-Minimum Dominating Set (TW–MDS) algorithm and analyzing standard quantitative performance graph theory metrics. Each country is represented by a network node, while the edges represent the cross-correlations calculated for a specific macroeconomic variable, for a given time window. To study the intertemporal evolution of the network's interconnections, we examine its structure in three consecutive time intervals: 1999–2004, 2005–2010 and 2011–2019. The empirical findings provide a mixed pattern. The European countries exhibit a common behavior over time for some macroeconomic variables, but not for all of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springer Nature became a formidable market leader in academic publishing after a 2015 merger. In 2018, Springer Nature made an initial public offering (IPO) attempt to reduce company debt and fortify company value. Three media sources (Reuters, Bloomberg and Nasdaq) indicated that there was a second IPO attempt in 2020, but neither of those IPO attempts reached fruition. This paper summarizes the main events surrounding those IPOs and offers some possible discussion points about them, including economic and market fluctuations. This case also highlights the highly competitive nature of the commercial publishing landscape in a non‐profit academic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The factors of industry environment risks to enterprise financial activities are considered; seven kinds of industry environment risks influencing enterprise financial activities are chosen as state variables. The eighth paper is "Nonlinear Effect Analysis of Electricity Price on Household Electricity Consumption" by Zhang and Wen; they investigated the scenario effect of per capita income and regional differences in urbanization development on the relationship between electricity sales price and urban household electricity consumption. Accurate energy forecasting is essential to achieve greater efficiency and reliability in power system operation and security, energy pricing problems, and scheduling and planning of energy supply systems, among other areas. [Extracted from the article]

• Cyclicality in aggregate productivity predicts the efficiency of resources reallocation. • Aggregate productivity growth originates from within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and due to entry and exit. • We exploit the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. • The contributions to aggregate productivity growth from within-plant and net-entry effects are procyclical. • Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. • The exporting sectors during 2008-09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. • The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. • The positive contribution from the net-entry exit effect of plants during the economic downturn validates the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection'. Understanding the cyclicality in aggregate productivity helps answer whether the economy allocates resources efficiently or not. The paper analyses the sources of aggregate productivity growth, such as direct efficiency gain within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and gains due to entry and exit during economic fluctuations. In particular, we exploit the economic shock of the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. The rise and fall of within-plant and net-entry effects during the economic fluctuations explains the pro-cyclicality of productivity growth. Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. Negative external shock to exporting sectors during 2008–09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. Nonetheless, the positive effect from the net-entry exit of plants during the economic downturn makes the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection' valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of interest-bearing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) presents central banks with an additional instrument for implementing monetary policy. This article develops a Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian model, incorporating financial frictions, to investigate the transmission mechanism and wealth distribution effects of digital currency interest rate from two distinct perspectives: (i) the interaction between the central bank and financial intermediaries and (ii) the substitution dynamics between cash and digital currency. By comparing models that include and exclude financial intermediaries, our research uncovers that in a society where CBDC is fully implemented, the reverse actions of financial intermediaries can hinder the efficacy of the central bank's monetary policy and result in elevated costs associated with policy formulation. Additionally, the leverage effect of financial intermediaries exacerbates wealth inequality and contributes to the expansion of investment, thereby promoting an increase in economic output. Comparing societies where CBDC entirely replaces cash with those where CBDC coexists alongside cash, this paper demonstrates that the presence of cash mitigates significant economic fluctuations triggered by CBDC, while the complete elimination of cash amplifies wealth inequality. Consequently, it is crucial for the central bank to account for the behavior of financial intermediaries when adjusting digital currency interest rate and explore the development of an appropriate interest rate mechanism tailored to digital currency. Simultaneously, maintaining cash circulation for a specific period can act as an economic stabilizer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the blot in A Gambler’s Anatomy exists in a long line of deep metaphors in Lethem’s work, an ancestor of “Lack” in As She Climbed Across the Table (1997) and the giant hole in the center of Manhattan in Chronic City. In the context of this story, which casts Stolarsky as the pantomimic capitalist villain, it can be interpreted as an ideological blind spot which prevents the protagonist from recognizing his entrapment in a cycle of economic dependency. Its removal should signal an awakening, therefore, but Lethem resists this move. Instead, Bruno is forced to don a mask and is ensnared within a Stolarsky empire which seems to have no outer limits. Even the anti-capitalist riot in which Bruno becomes involved might well have been orchestrated by the arch-capitalist himself. A Gambler’s Anatomy, then, represents Lethem’s most committed critique of corporate power and asks whether it is even possible to step outside its structures and demands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper finds new evidence of using public housing upgrading programs for political rent-seeking motives. We merged datasets comprising public housing upgrading programs, resale public housing transactions, electoral division boundaries, and general election events in Singapore from 2010 to 2016. We find evidence of significant increases in public housing upgrading programs in the ruling party constituencies one quarter before general elections. Due to resource constraints, the probability of blocks being selected for future upgrading programs diminishes with the upgrading announcements in neighboring housing blocks. The negative externality is felt more by residents of affected housing blocks in the opposition constituencies, causing price declines of 1.9 % more than housing blocks in the ruling party constituencies. The preferential treatment in the upgrading program selection process for the ruling party constituencies over the opposition constituencies widens the housing price gap between the two constituencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (SBVAR). Ten structural shocks (three external and seven domestic shocks) are identified using a triangular factorization. The main results are (i) the measured bank liquidity creation (as a share of total assets) is procyclical and negatively correlated with the liquidity coverage ratio in the banking sector; (ii) external shocks (the US monetary policy, Chinese economic activity, and changes in the global commodity market) have statistically significant and economically major effects on the liquidity creation. Lending rate, NPL ratio, foreign exchange reserves, and competition in the banking sector are key domestic determinants of liquidity creation; (iii) liquidity creation's main components respond differently to the US federal funds rate and lending rate shocks. External and financial shocks have contributed to the liquidity creation passing through movements in (illiquid assets + liquid liabilities) component; (iv) monetary policy can be an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument in stabilizing the economic and financial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a logistic oscillator model is presented to analyze the economic cycles of five selected economies: Mexico, Brazil, Canada, China and the United States. This selection was made taking as reference their level of economic development and their geographical position. The proposed model is an extension of the production Phillip's model (1959), which considers autonomous expenses dependent on time. It should be noted that the logistic oscillator combines the dynamics of a forced damped oscillator, whose restoring force incorporates Verhulst's logistic equation. The data used are the production levels of The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at nominal prices of the mentioned nations. The results obtained show terms of no economic damping with explosive tendency. China shows greater nondamping with an explosive trend, as does Mexico. The countries with the greatest oscillatory behavior are Brazil and Canada. Additionally, those showing exponential dynamics are China and the USA. The fitting of the logistic oscillator to the data is significant given the level of the determination coefficient. Therefore, the results indicate that the model can be useful in formulating economic policy criteria, since it allows one to predict the evolution of the economic cycle in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper shows that newspaper articles contain signals that can materially improve real‐time nowcasts of real GDP growth for the Euro area. Using articles from 15 popular European newspapers, which are machine translated into English, we create sentiment metrics that update daily and assess their value for nowcasting, comparing with competitive and rigorous benchmarks. We find that newspaper text is especially helpful early in the quarter before other indicators are available. We also find that general‐purpose sentiment measures perform better than more economics‐focused ones in response to unanticipated events and nonlinear supervised models can help capture extreme movements in growth but require sufficient training data to be effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Quantile regression methods are increasingly used to forecast tail risks and uncertainties in macroeconomic outcomes. This paper reconsiders how to construct predictive densities from quantile regressions. We compare a popular two‐step approach that fits a specific parametric density to the quantile forecasts with a nonparametric alternative that lets the "data speak." Simulation evidence and an application revisiting GDP growth uncertainties in the United States demonstrate the flexibility of the nonparametric approach when constructing density forecasts from both frequentist and Bayesian quantile regressions. They identify its ability to unmask deviations from symmetrical and unimodal densities. The dominant macroeconomic narrative becomes one of the evolution, over the business cycle, of multimodalities rather than asymmetries in the predictive distribution of GDP growth when conditioned on financial conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the uncertainty in households' expectations regarding macroeconomic outcomes, namely inflation and the rate of nationwide home price growth. We document that people extrapolate from the instability of their personal and local environment when assessing the future volatility of these macroeconomic variables. Consequently, there are within-person spillovers in subjective uncertainty regarding different economic outcomes. This extrapolative behavior is more pronounced among lower-numeracy individuals, and it persists throughout the business cycle. People with more uncertain macroeconomic expectations are more likely to engage in precautionary behaviors regarding consumption and equity market exposure and are more concerned about credit market access. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00820. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID‐19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non‐parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecasts using past data histories embedded into a symbolic space. Then, the forecasts are converted into probability statements, which are weighted by the forecast probabilities of their respective symbols. Using GDP data from G7, our proposal outperforms other parametric approaches in classifying future national business cycle phases, especially including data from 2020 in the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions surrounding the labour wedge and the tax wedge in the United States are complicated by the fact that, historically, there is a lack of coherent relationship between the series of hours worked (based on standard measurements) and that of the tax wedge. This has been cited as grounds for discounting the tax wedge as a viable explanation for the behaviour of the labour wedge. In this paper, I explore an alternative measurement of labour hours in the United States in a bid to clear up some of the morass surrounding the tax wedge and hours worked. In the process, I show that, the labour wedge is rather more aligned with available labour hours over the business cycle than it does actual hours worked. Moreover, cyclical properties of the available hours series, however puzzling, are explained by the presence of a government transfer scheme which I introduce in the household side of the market. Also, the presence of the transfer scheme alters the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) between consumption and leisure, and by doing so, reverses the cyclical properties of the tax wedge. This puts the tax wedge in alignment with the labour wedge over the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the issuance of the Notice on Further Optimizing the Implementation of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Measures on December 7, 2022, employees have returned to work and production after completing remote home office. In the process, employees face infection with COVID-19, which has an impact on their mentality and work behavior. Due to the lack of research on this content at present. In order to reveal the influence of employees' psychological stress on their work and life after the epidemic, this paper collects data by combining interview with open random survey and open questionnaire published by Credamo research platform, and then analyzes the relationship between employees' psychology and behavior by combining the collected interviews and questionnaires with demographic variables. The results showed that the individual characteristics of employees had an impact on work attitude and behavior. During the process of recovering from remote office to on-site office, employees will strengthen personal protection. Most employees will choose to respond to the call of the state and cooperate with the requirements of the enterprise to work seriously even if they are worried about possible infection in the work, due to the multiple factors such as improving work efficiency and work quality, social and economic pressure of life, but there will be a low-profile reaction for a period of time. At the same time, some employees choose to face the challenges with a positive attitude after feeling the economic fluctuations and enterprise crisis, showing the improvement of psychological resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of fiscal policy over business cycles has been a source of major controversy despite the growing empirical literature and international experience. This paper proposes an analytical framework that allows us to analyze the transmission channels of fiscal policy, updating the most recent findings after the pandemic. In this way, it aims to contribute to a more detailed understanding of some of the main mechanisms by which fiscal policy affects the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spain has experienced a history of chronically high and intractable unemployment. The Job Guarantee has been theorized as a policy proposal that aims to produce tight full employment and enhances macroeconomic and price stability. This paper provides an overview of some of the explanations to the causes of unemployment and the performance of traditional active labor management policies. A simulation of a job guarantee programme for the historic 1999–2019 period is provided using an econometric model of the Spanish economy. In addition to eradicating unemployment, we find that the job guarantee programme attenuates the economic cycle, sustains higher real incomes, and does not compromise price stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey is one of the highest donors in the world, who also receives substantial amount of aids from various entities and countries. This paper aims to investigate the on going nexus between economic growth (EG) and foreign aid (AID) in Turkey; utilizing yearly data between 1960 and 2022 by employing wavelet analysis tools: namely the power spectrum, wavelet coherence, wavelet cohesion and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) causality approach, which provides information of both long‐run and short‐run linkages for separate subperiods of time and frequencies. Our results reveal that; (a) the result of the power spectrum indicates that at different frequency and period, there is evidence of significant variation in EG and AID; (b) the outcome of the wavelet coherence confirms that there is comovement at varying frequencies and varying periods between EG and AID, with AID leading; (c) the outcome of the wavelet cohesion shows a positive/negative connection in the short and medium term, but a negative connection in the long term; (d) the result of the CWT causality approach confirmed the 'feedback hypothesis' at the aggregate level, in‐phase and out‐phase condition. As a result, policymakers should be more effective in supporting EG at high frequencies and only under the rule of the economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with Kalecki's 1935 business cycle model, where a finite time lag in the investment dynamics is assumed. The time lag is the gestation period elapsing between orders for capital goods and deliveries of finished industrial equipment. Including the actual mainstream theory, the economic literature agrees on the consequences that time lag has on the economic activity. It is a cause of persistent economic fluctuations. Following some recent research lines on this model, here we restate the Kalecki approach, assuming sigmoidal functions in addition to Kalecki's linear treatment and further considering a non-constant capital depreciation. Never made until now, this last assumption is such that to yield, in place of a delayed differential equation, a Volterra delayed integro-differential equation. Taken the time delay and the rate of capital depreciation as critical parameters, a qualitative study of that equation is carried out. We proved that with a small-time lag stable equilibria arise. But, when the delay increases, equilibria are destabilized through Hopf bifurcations and stability switches occur. Consequently, a variety of cyclical behaviors appear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of announced government fiscal measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we build a new panel dataset of fiscal announcements by type, such as above-the line, below-the-line, and contingent liabilities for a wide sample of 136 advanced and developing countries between January 2020 and May 2021. Then, using this newly constructed dataset, we show, using both static and dynamic panel analyses, how various types of fiscal announcements affect alternative proxies of economic activity and across different income groups. We also evaluate how these effects vary depending on the country's initial conditions (degree of public indebtedness or the business cycle positioning). Fiscal announcements also matter in terms of external credibility since they have an effect on government bond spreads. Ultimately, our findings suggest why it might be critical to consider the "news" effect of a fiscal measure by type rather than at the aggregated level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky's financing regime classifications to a panel of nonfinancial corporations. First, we map Minsky's definitions of hedge, speculative and Ponzi finance onto firm-level data to describe the evolution of Minskian regimes. We highlight striking growth in the share of Ponzi firms in the post-1970 US, concentrated among small corporations. This secular growth in the incidence of Ponzi firms is consistent with the possibility of a long wave of increasingly fragile finance in the US economy. Second, we explore the possibility of short-run Minskian dynamics at a business cycle frequency. Using linear probability models relating firms' probability of being Ponzi to the aggregate output gap, which captures short-term macroeconomic fluctuations exogenous to individual firms, we find that the relationship between aggregate downturns and the probability of being Ponzi is statistically significant, but very small (almost zero). This result is corroborated by quantile regressions using a continuous measure of financial fragility, the interest coverage ratio, which identify almost zero effects of short-term fluctuations on financial fragility across the interest coverage distribution. Together, these results speak to an important question in the theoretical literature on financial fragility regarding the duration of Minskian cycles, and lend support, in particular, to the contention that Minskian dynamics may take the form of long waves, but do not operate at business cycle frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous managerial and corporate finance perspectives suggest mutual tax advantages when depreciation is transferred from an asset's user to a lessor, creating a perceived loss of tax revenue for the government. This study delves deeper into the lease versus buy decision and its ramifications on government tax revenue. It goes beyond tax rate discrepancies, exploring how factors like lessor‐lessee borrowing rate differences, asset lifespan, depreciation, and lease payment schedules impact tax revenues, both analytically and numerically. The paper establishes a strong theoretical foundation, emphasizing positive‐sum games involving lessees, lessors, and governments in individual deals. Government benefits from leasing vary across asset classes, market structures, depreciation timelines, credit quality, tax credits, and business cycles. The proposal is that the aggregate impact at the federal level could be positive, negative, or neutral across all leasing deals. These insights surpass conventional knowledge, offering valuable perspectives for finance and accounting educators, students, practitioners, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new family of mechanisms for one-sided matching markets, denoted pick-an-object (PAO) mechanisms. When implementing an allocation rule via PAO, agents are asked to pick an object from individualized menus. These choices may be rejected later on, and these agents are presented with new menus. When the procedure ends, agents are assigned the last object they picked. We characterize the allocation rules that can be sequentialized by PAO mechanisms and the ones that can be implemented in a robust truthful equilibrium. We justify the use of PAO as opposed to direct mechanisms by showing that its equilibrium behavior is closely related to the one in obviously strategy-proof (OSP) mechanisms, but implements commonly used rules, such as Gale-Shapley DA and top trading cycles, which are not OSP implementable. We run laboratory experiments comparing truthful behavior when using PAO, OSP, and direct mechanisms to implement different rules. These indicate that agents are more likely to behave in line with the theoretical prediction under PAO and OSP implementations than their direct counterparts. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: This research is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72033006]. R. Hakimov was supported by the Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung [Project 100018_189152]. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4908. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by Rajan's study and existing economic reform theories (especially the lobby theory), we highlight income inequality as a driver of financial liberalisations. However, no evidence yet supports this idea. To verify this liberalisation‐induced‐by‐inequality hypothesis, the nexus of income inequality and financial liberalisations is formalised and empirically investigated in this paper. We utilise an ordered logit model with two‐way fixed effects and panel data from 91 countries to conduct the analyses. The baseline empirical results indicate that income inequality is a positive and significant determinant of financial liberalisations in aggregate and three component indicators. The results for three component indicators remain stable after a series of robustness checks, including mitigating the potential endogeneity via IV‐2SLS, Lewbel instrumental variable technique and difference within group, assessing the bias from the unobservable variables, considering the persistent and learning effects of liberalisations and the interaction effects, alternating the measures of income inequality, reducing business cycle, and using financial reforms rather financial liberalisation as independent variable. The results for aggregate liberalisations are slightly unstable in models with persistent and learning effects. Thus, liberalisation‐induced‐by‐inequality hypothesis is generally confirmed. In addition, the impacts of income inequality on financial liberalisations are widely heterogeneous across countries, the rate of change in income inequality and wealth inequality could also predict the occurrence of financial liberalisations, and the evidence that income inequality makes the poor easier access credits (i.e., Rajan's hypothesis) is found. Finally, the role is investigated of financial liberalisations in shaping banking stability, and we find that financial liberalisations can enhance growth and lower financial risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on dynamic general equilibrium models that incorporate noncompliant behaviors. It organizes contributions according to selected dimensions that denote important pillars of the macroeconomic literature and that are relevant to explaining the nature and role of non‐compliant behaviors. These pillars are business cycles, macroeconomic policies, labor markets, income inequality, and financial factors. Starting with studies from the early 2000s, when general equilibrium models first began to include noncompliant behaviors, our study provides a temporal excursus on the evolution of the phenomenon in this literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs an open-economy factor-augmented VAR model to assess the dynamic effects of global shocks on emerging market economies and to quantify their relative importance in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. An unexpected favourable shock to global demand and supply has a strong and positive effect on emerging markets, whereas an unanticipated rise in global interest rates and commodity prices leads to a significant decline in aggregate activity. Variance decomposition analysis implies that more than 80% of the variation in emerging market output growth can be attributed to the global shocks. In particular, the global demand shock is the most critical, explaining roughly 30% of the fluctuation in output growth. The global supply shock is closely associated with the medium-to-long-term variation in output growth, explaining about 17%, whereas the monetary policy and commodity price shocks are relatively relevant for the short-term variation, explaining about 20% respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relative significance of oil supply, oil demand, and monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic variations. We analyze impulse response functions and variance decomposition to assess the relative importance of these shocks. Using a Bayesian structural VAR framework and the penalty function approach, we identify the shocks of interest. We find that oil supply shocks explain less than 3% of the variation in output, but have a relatively larger impact on inflation, accounting for around 13% of the inflation variation. Oil demand shocks explain 3% of output variation, but contribute significantly to inflation variation (around 16%). In contrast, monetary policy shocks have a greater influence on output, explaining approximately 13% of the observed variation. Monetary policy shocks are also the most influential source of inflation variation, contributing over 24% to the overall variation. Based on historical variance decomposition, we find that the recent inflation surge is attributable to both monetary expansion and oil supply factors. Overall, the study highlights the dominance of monetary policy shocks in explaining US macroeconomic fluctuations, with oil supply and demand shocks playing secondary roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a historical perspective on the concept of essentiality of money and monetary theory. It traces the evolution of monetary theory from classical theory to the division between microeconomics and macroeconomics. The article also discusses the different perspectives of the New Keynesian School and the New Monetarist School on the essential functions of money. It explains the role of money in facilitating economic activity and explores the various forms of money throughout history. The article concludes by emphasizing the significance of essential money and the need for a more comprehensive understanding of its functions in the modern economy. [Extracted from the article]

As the global semiconductor industry has entered a new round of rapid growth, it has also entered a golden cycle of economic growth. Semiconductor companies increase their intrinsic value through financing, industry mergers and acquisitions, and venture capital searches. At the same time, market investors pay more attention to the intrinsic value of companies when looking for good investment targets. Therefore, the systematic risk assessment of the global semiconductor market has become a common concern of market investors and corporate management. In this context, this paper found a method that can assess the systemic risk of the semiconductor global market, which is to use the K-means algorithm based on deep feature fusion. This paper analyzed the algorithm in depth, analyzed the quantum space of tensors, and used the definition of cluster fusion to obtain the relationship between the projection matrices U and V. Experiments were carried out on the improved algorithm, and market research was conducted on a multinational semiconductor company A, which mainly included the basic statistics of the rate of return and the ACF and PACF coefficients of the rate of return series. Finally, the stock risk comparison of company A and company B in the same period was carried out. The experimental results showed that comparing the three items of compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, and active rate coefficient, the highest compound growth rate was 0.41, which came from Category 2, the highest variation coefficient was 2.31, which came from Category 10, and the highest active rate coefficient was 1.78, which came from Category 9. The experimental content was completed well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the development of social economy and the gradual improvement and optimization of the financial and economic system, China's financial structure is constantly changing and evolving. Financial institutions are the interrelations and connections between the various parts of the economy as a whole. They represent the role and achievements of the financial economy. Research shows that the transformation and evolution of financial structure promotes economic development and management efficiency. Therefore, under the background of the continuous evolution of financial structure, this article explores the factors of the evolution of financial structure on economic growth and management efficiency. The results of the experiment are as follows: (1) this article investigates developments of the evolution of financial structure, economic development, and management efficiency, determines the research direction of the experiment, provides background support for the subject research of this paper, and explores the influencing factors according to the impact mechanism on economic development and management efficiency and (2) put the evolution background of the financial structure in the degree of economic development and management efficiency. By using the economic growth calculation algorithm and management efficiency calculation algorithm, calculate the change trend of the range of economic growth and the fluctuation of the degree of management efficiency under the background of the evolution of the financial structure. The experimental results show that under the background of the evolution of the financial structure, the total development of the national economy has been effectively broken through, and the management mode of enterprises has been improved to effectively improve the management efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts the method of the random matrix to conduct an in-depth study and analysis of the management of macroeconomic multivariate statistics and regionalization, and to design its management strategy based on a random matrix. A combination of theoretical and applied research, combined with the experience of other cities, is used to study regional economic management using literature analysis, comparative analysis, and deductive induction by summarizing the results achieved in community management, studying its experience, exploring the significance of community management in ETDZs for social development, analyzing the current obstacles and contradictions affecting community management in Suqian ETDZ, and proposing relevant countermeasures for the problems arising therein to enrich the relevant theories and thus promote the level of community management in ETDZs to a higher level. Macroeconomic uncertainty refers to the changes that cannot be accurately observed, analyzed, and foreseen, i.e., the deviation of the expected value of the economy from the actual value. Not all macroeconomic fluctuations belong to the category of macroeconomic uncertainty, only unpredictable economic fluctuations are uncertain. It can be seen from the above that there is a corresponding relationship between the financial income correlation matrix and the random correlation matrix, and both are affected by the same random factors. The importance of uncertainty for macroeconomic policy making is undeniable, and its quantification is a key step. In this paper, we propose an econometric model to eliminate expectations and compare the advantages and disadvantages of different measurement models; we measure a system of fourteen macroeconomic indicators to reflect macroeconomic uncertainty and provide quantitative measurement results for the correct understanding of macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy making. Factor analysis is used to analyze these six comprehensive aspects to obtain the six-dimensional comprehensive scores of each province and city, and the scores are normalized and visualized. Based on a certain understanding of the economic equilibrium structure of each province and city in China, and a certain control of the overall development of each region itself at this stage, the future economic development trend is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how the internal–external composition of government debt affects the government's borrowing policy, sovereign risk, and welfare in a small open economy. To this end, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous default risk that includes both external and domestic debt. I calibrate the model to Argentina, and I show that the model closely reproduces key empirical moments. Moreover, I highlight the existence of an externality that distorts debt composition: Domestic debt levels are inefficiently low and default risk is inefficiently high. The welfare loss associated with the externality is roughly 0.7% when it is measured in permanent units of consumption. A Pigouvian subsidy that incentivizes domestic purchases of government bonds restores efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Excessive credit expansions have an important role in the generation and amplification of business cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Macroprudential policies can be beneficial in restraining excessive credit growth and safeguarding financial stability. Despite recent theoretical advances in understanding of the benefits of macroprudential policies, empirical evidence on their effect on the credit cycle is still scarce. Purpose of the article: This paper studies the effectiveness of macroprudential measures in the sample of major EM economies focusing on the broad credit measure and using an empirical framework which aims to alleviate several concerns in the previous literature. We examine the effectiveness of four categories of measures which are granular enough to provide relevant policy perspectives, whilst mitigating data sparsity issues. By exploiting both time-series and crosscountry variation in the tightness of macroprudential regulation in the construction of policy variables we also mitigate some of the common reverse causality concerns. Methods: We use panel data and employ several (fixed effect, bias corrected LSDV and dynamic interactive fixed effect) estimators to ensure that the results are not sensitive with respect to the estimation method while, together with our construction of the policy variables, alleviating other endogeneity concerns. Findings & value added: We uncover the heterogeneity in the effects of macroprudential measures on the credit cycle. While measures related to bank capital and credit activity are found to be effective in leaning-against the credit cycle, the measures targeting bank liquidity and FX exposures fail to have statistically significant effect. Our results provide the rationale for mixed evidence in the empirical literature studying the effectiveness of the broadly defined macroprudential measures. From the policy perspective, our findings provide evidence that the measures which address excessive credit expansion and strengthen the resilience of the financial system are effective in the EM economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to a fuller understanding of macroeconomic outcomes to financial market disturbances and the central bank's role in financial stability. Our two major contributions are conceptual and econometric. Conceptually, we introduce phases of the business cycle and econometrically we employ Bayesian VARs. We document that a shock that increases credit to non-financial sector leads to a persistent decline in economic activity. In addition, we examine whether the behavior of financial variables is useful in signaling the 2007–2009 recession. The answer is positive as our BVAR generates early warning signals pointing to a sustained slowdown in growth. We propose that the expansion phase of the business cycle can be subdivided into an early and a late expansion. Based on this distinction, we show that if the Fed had raised the policy rate when the economy moved from the early to late expansion, it could have mitigated the severity of the 2007–2009 recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]