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Carbon emission issues are becoming increasingly severe, and the carbon emissions in shrinking cities, primarily characterized by population loss, are often overlooked and insufficiently studied. This paper focuses on the carbon emissions from county-level administrative units in China's three northeastern provinces from 2001 to 2017. The study scientifically identified shrinking cities and measured the differences in carbon emission characteristics between growing and shrinking cities using the Theil index. Ultimately, the paper constructs a panel spatial econometric model to analyze the factors influencing them and explore their spatial effects. (1) The total carbon emissions in the Three Northeastern Provinces exhibited an inverted U-shaped trend, increasing from 734.21 million tons in 2001 to 1731.73 million tons in 2017, with the Mann–Kendall trend test showing a significant increase; spatially, this manifests as a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. (2) The region has 138 shrinking cities, accounting for over 50%; regarding carbon emission characteristics, the Theil index has consistently remained above 0.18, indicating significant differences between the carbon emissions of growing and shrinking cities. (3) The panel spatial econometric model results show that the influencing factors of carbon emissions in shrinking cities have unique directions, intensities, and spatial effects. In shrinking cities, aside from localized GDP effects and per-capita GDP acting as a suppressant, the population size has a pronounced inhibitory effect on local and surrounding carbon emissions. The analysis reveals significant differences in the carbon emission patterns and mechanisms between growing and shrinking cities; based on these results, the paper proposes differentiated carbon control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new green decomposition model of carbon productivity that aims to further analyze the regional differences in carbon productivity and its interaction with regional industrial performance. We combine desired outputs and undesired outputs orientation, and multiple factor inputs to derive a new green decomposition theorem, establish a new green decomposition model of carbon productivity, and obtain nine effects of regional carbon productivity differences. Empirical analysis is conducted using input-output data from 29 provinces and 15 industries in China, comparing the differences in carbon productivity from both the provincial and industry perspectives and exploring the mechanism of action. This paper provides theoretical basis and empirical evidence for regional carbon productivity enhancement and economic and industrial optimization from the perspective of multi-factor inputs, as well as policy insights for regional low-carbon transition development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food consumption has resulted in great carbon emissions in recent years. China has been facing the new mitigation challenge of carbon emissions with its emerging middle-income groups, especially in urban areas. This paper analyzes and predicts carbon emissions from food consumption (CEFC) of middle-income groups in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), which has a higher emerging middle-income group and the highest economic corridor in China. Few studies address CEFC analysis from middle-income groups perspective; thus, this paper calculates urban–rural CEFC of middle-income groups spanning 2010–2018 and predicts them in 2025, 2030 and 2035 using the extended IPAT model. Results are as follows: (1) YREB's urban–rural CEFC of middle-income groups show an upward trend and present a spatial pattern of "low–high–low–high" from the western region to the eastern region. Urban CEFC of middle-income groups are significantly higher than that of rural areas; (2) rural CEFC of middle-income groups in the YREB will first increase in 2025 and then decrease in 2030 and 2035. The growing trend of urban CEFC of middle-income groups will show a significant downward from 2025 to 2035. The growing proportion of urban CEFC of middle-income groups will exhibit an objective growth in 2035. Understanding the changing trend of CEFC of middle-income groups provides governments with differentiated and forward-looking suggestions toward coordinating middle-income groups' expansion and carbon emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electric power sector is the primary contributor to carbon emissions in China. Considering the context of dual carbon goals, this paper examines carbon emissions within China's electricity sector. The research utilizes the LMDI approach for methodological rigor. The results show that the cumulative contribution of economies scale, power consumption factors and energy structure are 114.91%, 85.17% and 0.94%, which contribute to the increase of carbon emissions, the cumulative contribution of power generation efficiency and ratio of power dissipation to generation factor are -19.15% and -0.01%, which promotes the carbon reduction. The decomposition analysis highlights the significant influence of economic scale on carbon emissions in the electricity industry, among the seven factors investigated. Meanwhile, STIRPAT model, Logistic model and GM(1,1) model are used to predict carbon emissions, the average relative error between actual carbon emissions and the predicted values are 0.23%, 8.72% and 7.05%, which indicates that STIRPAT model is more suitable for medium- to long-term predictions. Based on these findings, the paper proposes practical suggestions to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the dual carbon goals of the power industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality is the only way for green low-carbon development. Technological progress is an important starting point for improving energy efficiency. Through scientific and technological innovation, improving energy efficiency is a practical way to achieve the goal of carbon neutralization. Due to the limitation of data and index selection, there is no qualitative analysis of carbon neutrality in this paper. Compared with previous studies, the paper has the following contributions: Firstly, the energy efficiency score of China's provincial level is measured with the DEA method and it is found that the average energy efficiency score of the eastern region is the highest, followed by the western region, and finally the central region. The results also show that the energy efficiency is not in accordance with the economic growth. The regions with higher energy efficiency scores are not always economically developed because of huge energy consumption supporting the economic development. Secondly, the Tobit method is used to study the impact of the reverse technology spillover effect of OFDI on China's energy efficiency. The results show that the spillover effect has a significant positive effect on the improvement of China's energy efficiency, and has a positive impact on the eastern and western regions, but has no significant impact on the western region. Finally, we put forward some policy recommendations to increase energy efficiency to approach carbon neutrality and thus promote green economic development. This paper enriches the content of energy economy, the research method is innovative, and the conclusion is more scientific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on panel data from 30 provinces from 2001 to 2018 in China, this paper explores the effects and mechanisms of green urbanization on the forestry green total factor productivity (FGTFP) in the context of carbon neutral strategy using a two-way fixed effects model and instrumental variables. The results show that: Firstly, as a sector with ecological and economic benefits, ignoring carbon sink output tends to make FGTFP overestimated. Secondly, green urbanization has a significant positive contribution effect on FGTFP, and this finding still holds after a series of robustness tests including instrumental variables. Thirdly, green urbanization can indirectly promote FGTFP by stimulating the integration of forestry and tourism and strengthening environmental regulations. Fourthly, there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of green urbanization on FGTFP, i.e., the promotion effect of green urbanization on FGTFP is more significant in non-state forest areas compared with state-owned forest areas. Based on the above conclusions, the following countermeasures are proposed: firstly, attaching importance to green urbanization and strengthening environmental constraints; secondly, relying on green urbanization to drive the integration of forestry and tourism; thirdly, actively promoting the construction of green urbanization and green development of forestry in non-state forest areas, while vigorously developing the carbon sink economy to crack the transformation dilemma of backward state forest areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is actively heeding the call and striving for a low-carbon and environmentally friendly development route as part of the general trend toward a global low-carbon economy. The rapid economic development of our nation has brought to light the issue of carbon emissions resulting from the consumption habits of residents. This paper delves into the topic by conducting a thorough analysis of the carbon emission of residents' consumption using the input-output method. Based on the survey findings, the disparity in carbon emission between urban and rural communities in Shandong Province is evident not only in terms of total emissions but also in different categories and regions. Urban residents generate a total carbon emission of approximately 70.2921 million tons, which is three times higher than that of rural residents at 23.7846 million tons. The carbon emission of both urban and rural residents is primarily attributed to their embodied carbon emission. In examining the composition of the implied carbon emission of residents' consumption in Shandong Province, urban residents' carbon emission is concentrated in three areas, namely, food, culture, education, entertainment, transportation, and communication, accounting for 21.45%, 20.88%, and 15.10%, respectively. Conversely, rural residents' carbon emission is concentrated in four areas, including clothing, food, culture, education, entertainment, transportation, and communication, accounting for 29.01%, 17.45%, 15.43%, and 13.36%, respectively. Finally, according to the characteristics of the consumption carbon emission of urban and rural residents in Shandong Province, we give corresponding emission reduction strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China faces tough challenges in the process of low-carbon transformation. To determine whether China can achieve its new 2030 carbon peaking and carbon intensity reduction commitments, accurate prediction of China's CO2 emissions is vital. In this paper, the random forest (RF) model was used to screen 26 carbon emission influencing factors, and seven indicators were selected as key variables for prediction. Subsequently, a three-layer back propagation (BP) neural network was constructed to forecast China's CO2 emissions and intensity from 2020 to 2040 under the 13th Five-Year Plan, 14th Five-Year Plan, energy optimization, technology breakthrough, and dual control scenarios. The results showed that energy structure factors have the most significant impact on China's CO2 emissions, followed by technology level, and economic development factors are no longer the main drivers. Under the 14th Five-Year Plan scenario, China can achieve its carbon peaking on time, reaching 10,434.082 Mt CO2 emissions in 2030. Although the new commitment to intensity reduction (over 65%) under this scenario cannot be achieved, the 14th Five-Year Plan can bring about 73.359 and 539.710 Mt of CO2 reduction in 2030 and 2040 respectively, compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan. Under the technology breakthrough and dual control scenarios, China will meet its new commitments ahead of schedule, with the dual control scenario being the optimal pathway for CO2 emissions to peak at 9860.08 Mt in 2025. It is necessary for Chinese policy makers to adjust their current strategic planning, such as accelerating the transformation of energy structure and increasing investment in R&D to achieve breakthroughs in green technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind power generation does not emit greenhouse gases or pollutants, but there are some carbon emissions from the manufacturing, transportation, operation, and waste disposal of wind turbines. Directly driven permanent magnet and doubly fed asynchronous wind turbines currently have the largest market share in China, but few Chinese studies have compared their differences in carbon reduction potential. This paper uses life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantitatively analyze the full life cycle carbon emissions of the two wind turbines to determine which type of wind turbine has greater carbon reduction potential, obtaining the following results. (1) The full life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of 2.5 MW directly driven permanent magnet and doubly fed asynchronous wind turbines are 8.48 and 10.43 g CO2/kWh, respectively. The direct‐driven permanent magnet wind turbine is superior in terms of carbon reduction. (2) The stage with the greatest impact and the greatest difference between the two wind turbines in the full life cycle is the production stage, during which the carbon emissions of the directly driven permanent magnet and doubly fed asynchronous wind turbines are 1.045 × 106 and 1.210 × 106 kg, respectively. (3) According to sensitivity analysis, proper waste disposal and transportation can reduce carbon emissions from wind turbines. These research findings can be used to help achieve carbon peaking and neutrality goals, as well as the technological development of wind power enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an essential energy and chemical base in China, carbon reduction in the Energy "Golden Triangle" (EGT) area is significant. This paper used the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze the drivers of carbon emissions from secondary industry energy consumption (CESEC) in EGT from 2005 to 2019 and then used the GM (1,1) method to simulate carbon emissions in 2030. Meanwhile, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development was also analyzed using the two-dimensional decoupling model to test the effectiveness of carbon reduction by the region's government. This paper showed the following: (1) CESEC in the EGT area increased from 1.89×108t to 2.617×108 t; (2) the economic output effect is the main factor influencing carbon emissions in the EGT area, followed by population effect and energy structure effect, while energy intensity effect mitigates carbon emissions; and (3) CESEC will peak at 12.362×108t in 2030, leaving an arduous task on carbon reduction. The two-dimensional decoupling condition between carbon emissions and economic growth in the EGT area is low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE) for 2005–2019. The decoupling condition in Yulin and Ningdong is concentrated in low level-expansion connection (EC-LE) and low level-weak decoupling (WD-LE). Furthermore, Erdos reached high level-expansion negative decoupling (END-HE) condition during 2015–2019. Based on the above findings, a low-carbon development strategy for EGT should consider improving emission reduction technologies for high-carbon energy sources like coal, adjusting the energy consumption structure and seeking government policy support for carbon reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transportation sector is the third largest important industry in energy consumption and carbon emissions, second only to the power and industrial sectors, and its carbon emission reduction ability will directly affect China's dual-carbon strategy progress. In order to explore the spatial correlation pattern of China's transport carbon emissions, this paper uses provincial transportation carbon emission data from 2003 to 2020 to explore the structural characteristics and evolution rules of China's transportation carbon emission spatial correlation network from the perspectives of topological structure, role characteristics, and organization mode based on social network analysis and community discovery algorithm. The results show that the topological characteristics of provincial transport carbon emission spatial correlation network show periodic fluctuations, and show significant small-world and scale-free characteristics. The spatial correlation network of carbon emissions shows a significant "core-edge" distribution, and Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong and other provinces are at the core of the network, playing the role of "intermediary" and "bridge". According to the role characteristics, the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions is divided into "main benefit", "net benefit", "broker" and "net spillover", and the spatial spillover effect among various plates is significant, among which "broker" plate plays an important role in plate linkage. The "community buzzing-carbon hub-pipeline" model identifies the organizational characteristics of "big dispersion, small agglomeration" of carbon emission spatial correlation network. The results contribute to the targets optimization and coordinated development of regional transportation carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2020, China has been dedicated to the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" in the international community, demonstrating its commitment to energy conservation and emissions control. In 2021, in response to the guidance of the State Council, all provinces in China included the creation of a low-carbon economic system as one of their key development goals. This paper aims at investigating the low-carbon economic development efficiency and the redundancy of inefficient areas of Guangdong Province by using the three-stage DEA-Malmquist index model. Panel data of 21 cities from 2011 to 2020 in Guangdong Province were selected. Results revealed that the low-carbon economic development efficiency in the whole province rises, but the growth rate has slowed down in the past three years. Pearl River Delta area is better-developed in low-carbon economy than others. It is recommended to improve the efficiency of scale, make use of environmental advantages and develop energy-saving and emission reduction technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yellow River Basin is a key ecological barrier and commercial zone in China, as well as an essential source of energy, chemicals, raw materials, and fundamental industrial foundation, the achievement of its carbon peaking is of great significance for China's high-quality development. Based on this, we decomposed the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the Yellow River Basin using the LMDI method and predicted the carbon peaking in the Yellow River Basin under different scenarios using the STIRPAT model. The results show that (1) the energy intensity effect, economic activity effect and population effect play a positive role in promoting carbon emissions during 2005–2020. The largest effect on carbon emissions is the population size effect, with a contribution rate of 65.6%. (2) The STIRPAT model predicts that the peak of scenarios "M–L", "M–M" and "M–H" will occur in 2030 at the earliest. The "M–H" scenario is the best model for controlling carbon emissions while economic and social development in the Yellow River Basin. The results of this paper can provide a theoretical basis for the development of a reasonable carbon peak attainment path in the Yellow River Basin and help policy makers to develop a corresponding high-quality development path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric power industry, as one of the main industries leading to the increase of China's carbon emissions, accounts for about 40% of the total carbon emissions. It is of great practical significance to study the influencing factors of carbon emission decoupling index in power industry and put forward relevant policy suggestions. Based on the decoupling index of China's electric power industry from 1995 to 2018, this paper explores the influence of each index on the decoupling index through the autoregressive- distributed lag model. It turns out that the policy will significantly change the rate of change of carbon emissions and the rate of economic growth, but the impact of the policy is extremely short-lived; power generation structure, environmental regulations, and total lighting value at night play a positive role in promoting the decoupling index, while thermal power fuel efficiency and power generation conversion ratio play a negative role in inhibiting the decoupling index. In addition, the influence of power generation structure, environmental regulations, and the total value of night light on decoupling index also has a lagging and cumulative effect. Therefore, we propose targeted policy recommendations for policy formulation, green development, and low carbon construction in China's power industry from different perspectives based on the findings of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy (RE), the key to realizing the low-carbon transformation of energy, is significant in reducing social carbon emissions (CEs). However, the regional differences in the impact of RE on CEs and the impact mechanism are still unclear. Clarifying the regional differences and impact mechanisms will encourage the government to formulate a development plan for RE in line with the actual situation. To explore the heterogeneous impacts and conduction paths of RE on CEs, this paper uses province-level data from 2000 to 2019 in China. Based on clarifying regional CE efficiency, panel quantile regression models are introduced to assess the differential impacts of RE at different CE efficiencies. And the conduction mechanism of the effect of RE on CE efficiency is explored through the parallel multiple mediation effect model. The results show that RE development, the accumulation of social affluence, and technological innovation can improve carbon efficiency while increasing population size and energy consumption inhibit carbon efficiency. Urbanization rate, industrial structure, and opening to the outside world affect travel alienation in regions with different levels of CE efficiency. RE development improves regional CE efficiency, which is more evident in regions with low and high efficiency. In addition, RE can increase CE efficiency indirectly through effects on population size, urbanization rate, scientific and technological innovation, and intensity of fossil energy consumption. However, it decreases CE efficiency indirectly through social enrichment. These findings will provide broader insights for improving the development of regional RE and formulating differentiated policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating carbon emissions and assessing their contribution are critical steps toward China's objective of reaching a "carbon peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060. This paper selects relevant statistical data on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2018, combines the emission coefficient method and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI) to calculate carbon emissions, and analyses the driving force of carbon emission growth using Henan Province as a case study. Based on the partial least squares regression analysis model (PLS), the contributions of inter-provincial factors of carbon emission are analyzed. Finally, a county-level downscaling estimation model of carbon emission is further formulated to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of carbon emissions and their evolution. The research results show that: 1) The effect of energy intensity is responsible for 82 percent of the increase in carbon emissions, whereas the effect of industrial structure is responsible for -8 percent of the increase in carbon emissions. 2) The proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity, which are 1.64 and 0.82, respectively, have the most evident explanatory effect on total carbon emissions; 3). Carbon emissions vary widely among counties, with high emissions in the central and northern regions and low emissions in the southern. However, their carbon emissions have constantly decreased over time. 4) The number of high-emission counties, their carbon emissions, and the degree of their discrepancies are gradually reduced. The findings serve as a foundation for relevant agencies to gain a macro-level understanding of the industrial landscape and to investigate the feasibility of carbon emission reduction programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive carbon emissions not only intensify the global climate change, but also seriously restrict the sustainable development of social economy. However, improving industrial carbon emissions efficiency is the most directly effective way to reduce emissions. Therefore, accurate measurement and analysis of carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China's industrial system is the basis for China to improve carbon emissions efficiency. Based on this, we adopted energy consumption method and input-output method to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China from 2002 to 2015. The results show that (1) If carbon emissions from cement production are ignored and only energy-related carbon emissions are considered, the calculation results of carbon emissions efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated about 30%. (2) Compared with 2002, China's industrial carbon emissions efficiency increased by about twice in 2015. Specifically, the optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in agriculture, construction, light industry and service industry is very obvious, which has increased by 5.65, 5.00, 4.69 and 4.68 times respectively; The optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in power sector, heavy industry, transportation and chemical industry was obvious, which increased by 2.55, 2.01, 1.86 and 1.47 times respectively; The carbon emissions efficiency of the fossil energy sector has decreased by 0.36 times. (3) The carbon emissions efficiency of various industries has significant differences. Among them, agriculture, service industry, light industry and construction industry are generally industries with higher carbon emissions efficiency, while power sector, fossil energy sector, transportation industry, chemical industry and heavy industry are generally industries with lower carbon emissions efficiency, especially power and fossil energy sectors. Based on these, this paper provides policy implications and scientific evidence for accurately improving carbon emissions efficiency from the perspective of carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry is the backbone of most countries, but its carbon emissions are huge and growing rapidly, constraining the achievement of global carbon-peaking and carbon-neutrality goals. China's carbon emissions are the highest in the world, and the construction industry is the largest contributor. Due to significant differences between provinces in pressure, potential, and motivation to reduce emissions, the "one-size-fits-all" emission reduction policy has failed to achieve the desired results. This paper empirically investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in China's construction industry and their decoupling relationship with economic growth relying on GIS tools and decoupling model in an attempt to provide a basis for the formulation of differentiated construction emission reduction policies and plans in China. The study shows that, firstly, the changes in carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the provincial construction industry are becoming increasingly complex, with a variety of types emerging, such as declining, "inverted U-shaped", growing, "U-shaped", and smooth fluctuating patterns. Secondly, the coefficient of variation is higher than 0.65 for a long time, indicating high spatial heterogeneity. However, spatial agglomeration and correlation are low, with only a few cluster-like agglomerations formed in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Bay, Northeast China, and Loess and Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau regions. Thirdly, most provinces have not reached peak carbon emissions from the construction industry, with 25% having reached peak and being in the plateau stage, respectively. Fourthly, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from the construction industry and economic growth, as well as their changes, is increasingly diversified, and most provinces are in a strong and weak decoupling state. Moreover, a growing number of provinces that have achieved decoupling are moving backward to re-coupling, due to the impact of economic transformation and the outbreaks of COVID-19, with the degraded regions increasingly concentrated in the northeast and northwest. Fifthly, we classify China's 30 provinces into Leader, Intermediate, and Laggard policy zones and further propose differentiated response strategies. In conclusion, studying the trends and patterns of carbon-emission changes in the construction industry in different regions, revealing their spatial differentiation and correlation, and developing a classification management strategy for low carbonized development of the construction industry help significantly improve the reliability, efficiency, and self-adaptability of policy design and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the carrier of human economic activities, the change of territorial space affects the level of regional carbon balance. Therefore, with regional carbon balance as the goal, this paper proposed a framework from the perspective of production-living-ecological space and took Henan Province of China as a study area for empirical research. First, the study area established an accounting inventory that considers nature, society, and economic activities to calculate carbon sequestration/emission. Then, the spatiotemporal pattern of carbon balance was analyzed by ArcGIS from 1995 to 2015. Later, the CA-MCE-Markov model was used to simulate the production-living-ecological space pattern in 2035, and carbon balance in three future scenarios was predicted. The study showed that from 1995 to 2015, the living space gradually expanded, and the aggregation rose while the production space decreased. Carbon sequestration (CS) was less than carbon emission (CE) and presented an unbalanced state of negative income in 1995, while CS exceeded CE and showed a positive income imbalance in 2015. In 2035, living space has the highest carbon emission capacity under natural change scenario (NC), while ecological space has the highest carbon sequestration capacity under ecological protection scenario (EP), and production space has the highest carbon sequestration capacity under food security scenario (FS). The results are crucial for understanding the carbon balance changes in territorial space and supporting regional carbon balance goals in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is an important potential technical way for coal power plants to achieve near-zero carbon emissions with the current energy structure in China being dominated by coal. However, CCUS is still at the early demonstration stage, and there are many uncertainties in the business model and policy incentives that the traditional method can no longer handle. At the same time, few studies have analyzed these issues. Taking coal-fired power plants as the research object, we adopt the system dynamics method (SD) to compare the economic feasibility, stability, and CO2 emission reduction effect of the CCUS in the vertical integration model and the CCUS operator model. Furthermore, this paper also studies the effect of different incentive policies on CCUS. Results show the following: (1) Both models are economically viable. From the stability perspective, the CCUS operator model is superior to the vertical integration model. (2) In terms of the effect of individual policies, the government's preference for subsidies to the coal-fired power plant can significantly reduce CO2 emissions. Increasing the additional government subsidy and carbon tax can accelerate the CCUS system into a relatively stable state, but beyond a certain range, the marginal CO2 capture rate, marginal CO2 emission reduction rate, and marginal profit rate of each department will be significantly reduced. The storage enterprise highly depends on the government subsidy. Low government subsidy allocation, low additional government subsidy, and a low carbon tax will lead to continuous negative profits for the storage enterprise, making the CCUS system unsustainable. (3) The impact of combination policies on CCUS is not simply the sum of the effects of individual policies. Each policy has a counteracting or reinforcing effect on the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The realization of the "double-carbon" goal will contribute to the high-quality and sustainable development of China's economy and society, while the improvement of carbon emission efficiency in Chinese provinces will lay a solid foundation for the realization of the "double-carbon" goal. In this paper, 30 Chinese provinces are selected as research cases. MatLab software is applied to build the slacks-based measure Malmquist-Luenberger (SBM-ML) model to measure carbon efficiency. By the analysis of their carbon efficiency with the fuzzy qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method, this paper aims to find new ways to improve carbon emission efficiency. Among the data of all the provinces and municipalities, there are only four are greater than 1, revealing much room for improvement in Chinese carbon emission efficiency. The carbon emission efficiency of each province and municipality is synergistically influenced by five elements: environmental regulation, urbanization rate, marketization level, consumer price index, and government environmental expenditure. Different configurations of the five elements constitute four feasible ways to improve carbon emission efficiency. The total consistency level of 0.822277 indicates that the four paths are sufficient conditions for achieving high carbon emission efficiency. The conclusions of this paper are not only helpful in accurately grasping the carbon emission efficiency in Chinese provinces but also provide theoretical support and practical guidance for improving the carbon emission efficiency in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a financial trend in China's carbon market. However, the legal and policy pathways in China have not specifically focused on carbon finance, which has led to some suspicions about the legitimacy and efficiency of the carbon market. China is following an ambiguous and complicated route in the financial market rules and specialized regime of the carbon market. Meanwhile, the EU has classified carbon emission allowances as financial instruments, and adopted financial market rules for all segments of the carbon market. On the basis of the financial regulation in the EU this paper will try to find an appropriate legal and policy pathway to carbon finance in China. Application and exemptions as regards financial market rules concerning different market participants and their behaviors will be suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover (LULC) will cause large flows of carbon sources and sinks. As the world's largest carbon emitter with a complicated LULC, China's carbon emissions have profound implications for its ecological environment and future development. In this paper, we account for the land-use changes and carbon emissions of 30 Chinese provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial correlation of carbon emissions among the study areas is explored. Four typical regions with spatial association (Beijing, Hebei, Sichuan, and Anhui) are selected, and their land-use change trends in 2025 and 2030 are simulated to predict the total carbon emissions in the future. The results show that the distribution of land-use in China is mainly cultivated and woodland, but the growth of urban built-up (UBL) land area indirectly leads to the continuous increase of carbon emissions. Total carbon emissions have increased over the past two decades, albeit at a slower growth rate, with some provinces experiencing no further growth. In the typical regional carbon emission simulation, it is found that the carbon emissions of the four provinces would show a downward trend in the future. The main reason is the reduction in indirect carbon emissions from fossil energy in UBL, while the other part is the influx of carbon sinks due to grassland, woodland, etc. We recommended that future carbon reduction measures should focus and prioritize controlling fossil energy and mitigating carbon emissions from UBL. Simultaneously, the significant contribution of forests and other land types as carbon sinks should be acknowledged to better implement China's carbon neutral commitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has brought about enormous damage, therefore, some scholars have begun to conduct in-depth research on peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. In this paper, based on the background of China's upgrading industrial structure and energy structure, we establish a delayed two-dimensional differential equation model associated with China's adjustment of industrial structure. Firstly, we analyze the existence of the equilibrium for the model. We also analyze the characteristic roots of the characteristic equation at each equilibrium point for the model, then, we analyze the stability of the equilibrium point for the model according to the characteristic root, and discuss the existence of Hopf bifurcation of the system by using bifurcation theory. Secondly, we derive the normal form of Hopf bifurcation by using the multiple time scales method. Then, through the official real data, we present the range of some parameters in the model, and determine a set of parameters by reasonable analysis. The validity of the theoretical results is verified by numerical simulations. Finally, we use the real data to forecast the time of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutralization. Eventually, we put forward some suggestions based on the current situation of carbon emission and absorption in China, such as planting trees to increase the growth rate of carbon absorption, deepening industrial reform and optimizing energy structure to reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of carbon emissions accelerates global warming and causes environmental problems. Therefore, research on emission peak and carbon neutrality is of broad interest. In this paper, based on the relationships among carbon emissions, carbon absorption and urban population growth, a delayed differential equations model is established. Then, we analyze the existence and stability of a positive equilibrium point of the system and substitute the data for simulations. Eventually, according to theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, some suggestions for China to achieve the goal of emission peak and carbon neutrality are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global economy is deteriorating, and the problem of climate anomalies is becoming more prominent. Countries around the world are actively developing. The progress by leaps and bounds of China's economy has brought huge environment, resources, and other problems, and the problem of carbon emissions is more prominent. Based on this, this paper studies the evolution analysis of county carbon emission intensity pattern. Based on the simple analysis of carbon emission research and the research progress of influencing factors, according to the economic development status, the counties in China are divided into four parts, the county carbon emission intensity analysis model is constructed, and the influencing factors are studied by using LMDI model. The results of empirical analysis show that the intensity of county carbon emissions in China has been growing, and there are many influencing factors. The increase of population and economy will lead to a certain level of carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the statement of Chinese government on energy saving in 2020 at the United Nations General Assembly, carbon neutral was widely spread as a new concept. As a big country, China has the responsibility and obligation to make its own contribution to global climate change. This paper aims to explore and find effective ways for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We identify the main factors affecting carbon emissions by STIRPAT model; combined with the scenario analysis, we divide the year 2020 to 2060 into three stages: year 2020–2030 is carbon peak stage, year 2030–2050 is rapid emission reduction stage, and year 2050–2060 is complete carbon neutralization stage. At each stage, three development models, high, medium, and low level, were established. There are a total of 27 different scenarios in three stages. A system dynamics model was established to simulate the effects of carbon emission factors and changes in carbon sinks in different scenarios. Finally, 8 paths were found which in line with Chinese current goal of achieving carbon neutrality with treating reach carbon peak in 2030 as an additional filter condition. Comparing per capita GDP levels in different scenarios, we eventually find that keeping economic development at a low level in the first stage, a high level in the second stage, and a medium level in the finally stage, the point where net carbon emissions are less than zero for the first time will appear between year 2056 and 2057. By then, the per capita GDP will reach 144,500 yuan (based on year 2000), nearly four times 2000's. In all, these findings are helpful for policymakers to implement reasonable policies to achieve carbon emission peaking and carbon neutral in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biogas resources in the Sanhu area of the Qaidam Basin have great potential, but there are few studies on biogas from shale, especially on the accumulation conditions of shale biogas. The study of biogas accumulation conditions of quaternary shale in the Sanhu area is of great significance to the theory of biogas accumulation and the guidance of exploration and development. This paper takes Quaternary shale in the Sanhu area as the research object. It is analyzed from multiple perspectives of shale hydrocarbon generation conditions, reservoir conditions, as well as hydrodynamic and structural conditions. Through the experiments of soluble organic carbon analysis and porosity and permeability analysis, the accumulation conditions of shale biogas reservoirs are clarified. The results show that the quaternary shale has a high soluble organic carbon content and high salinity formation water, which is conducive to late methane biochemical generation. Quaternary shale has the characteristics of high porosity and low permeability, mainly developing intergranular pores and intragranular pores. The large pore volume and specific surface area provide a lot of storage space for free gas and adsorbed gas, and the reservoir conditions are good. Under the structural characteristics of high in the south and low in the north and the action of formation hydrodynamics, biogas migrated from the south and deep to the north of the basin. The north slope is the main biogas-rich zone. On the whole, the quaternary shale in the Sanhu area has the characteristics of continuous hydrocarbon generation and dynamic accumulation, which has huge resource potential and exploration and development value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accompanied with the increasing complicated global value chain (GVC) networks is the carbon emission transfers among countries. Utilizing the complex network analysis alongside quadratic assignment procedure (QAP), this paper detects the community structure and influencing forces of the emission transfers under GVCs. The results imply that the bipolar structure of the network transformed gradually to tripolar owing largely to the surging of carbon emissions from China. Evidence on the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the emission transfers from high-income countries to low-income countries, and a U-shape relationship transfers in the reverse direction, suggesting that growing carbon emissions from both low- and high-income countries transferred to other high-income countries gradually. Gaps in technology, especially in patent applications, between source and destination countries played an important role therein. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has officially announced that China's carbon dioxide emissions will reach to peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Based on the carbon neutrality development of 12 provinces and cities in eastern China from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs an evaluation index system, and it uses the entropy weight method and coefficient of variation method to measure the carbon neutrality development level in the eastern China. The results show that from 2010 to 2019, the changes of carbon source level in 12 provinces and cities in the eastern China are lower than the changes in carbon sink level, and the changes of carbon source and sink level in most provinces and cities show the increasing trend. Spatially, the carbon neutral development level shows the differentiation characteristics of "low in the middle, high in the north and south." The main factors affecting the carbon neutrality level of eastern provinces and cities include policy, economic development and industrial structure, energy intensity and structure, urban development, and population size ecological environment. High-value areas are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Fujian Province. Low-value areas are mainly distributed in Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. Eastern China still needs to strengthen its emphasis on low-carbon policies. For Shandong Province, Jiangsu Province, and Hebei Province, policies should be introduced to reduce carbon sources, accelerate their industrial upgrading, and optimize their energy use structure. For Beijing City, Shanghai City, Heilongjiang Province, and Jilin Province, policies should be introduced to develop carbon sinks while maintaining their low carbon source levels. For Beijing City and Shanghai City, policies related to green and low-carbon technologies should be introduced to promote the development of carbon sink capacity through low-carbon technologies in limited urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon emission of the energy industry is mainly generated by power generation. Adjusting the power generation structure of multiple energy sources, so as to control the carbon emission of the power generation industry and measure its emission reduction space, is the key for power generation industry to achieve the goal of "dual carbon targets." This study develops a regional multi-energy generation simulation model, which is based on the core algorithm of generation dispatching approach. The established model can simulate the dispatching of all types of generating units in the region and output the data of power generation and emissions. Considering taking Shanxi Province as example, the output results under the benchmark scenario are obtained to verify the efficiency of the model. The error of renewable energy generation and other generation is less than 4%, which shows that the model has enough credibility. The results of the scenario analysis show that every 5% increase in the utilization rate of wind turbine units will increase almost 20% of the renewable energy power generation, reduce almost 15% of the thermal power and reduce at least 10% of the CO2 emissions. This proves that China's regional power generation industry has certain emission reduction potential. The proposed model has important application value for energy conservation and emission reduction of regional power generation industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely acknowledged that greenhouse gases (GHG) like carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) play a key role in the development of global climate change. 17% of China's GHG came from the agricultural industry. For China's future development, it is essential to investigate low-carbon emission paths in planting fields, as one of the key components of agriculture. In this study, the IPCC method was used to estimate the total carbon emission from cultivation in Eastern China. The Tapio decoupling model was used to study the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission. An extended STIRPAT stimulus model was established to predict the carbon emission of the planting industry in East China with three development paths. The results show that carbon emission in East China has shown a fluctuating downward trend with a peak in 1999, which has strong decoupling characteristics with economic growth. Adjusting agricultural structure and raising the mechanization rate can remarkably reduce agricultural carbon emission. Compared to 2020, carbon emission in 2035 will decrease by 12.50%, 13.68%, and 14.32% with Baseline, Low-carbon, and Enhanced Low-carbon scenarios, respectively. Effective measures such as optimizing planting structure by adjusting rice area, promoting intensive mechanization, and improving fertilizer use efficiency can reduce carbon emission actively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential risks to people's health should receive much more attention with an increasing compound pollution in urban river ecological landscape. In this paper, the concentrations of 8 heavy metals (HMs, V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Zn, As and Pb), black carbon (BC, char and soot) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in soils and river sediments collected from 72 sampling sites along the Chan-Ba River, and also were evaluated, concerning source analysis and health risks. The results indicate that the concentrations of BC and PAHs varied seasonally, and the concentration of HMs showed little seasonal variation. The concentration of BC was higher in winter than in summer, while that of PAHs was higher in summer than in winter. These pollutants were spatial heterogeneity. The concentrations of these pollutants in the middle reaches of the Ba River were much higher than those in the upper and lower reaches. These changes are attributed to the spatial-temporal distribution of local pollutant emissions and the characteristics of regional pollutant transportation and deposition. Source and cluster analysis revealed that BC, HMs and PAHs were pyrogenic (including coal and biomass combustions, vehicular emissions). The evaluation of health risk of PAHs and HMs revealed that the cancer risk for adults and children was higher than the 10-6 and lower than 10-4 implying low to moderate risk, and it is noted that there are higher potential risks of Phe and Flu at the middle reaches in summer and As at the lower reaches in Autumn. Therefore, pollution prevention and monitoring, classification management and control mechanisms in designated river basins are necessary to ensure the quality and safety of the ecological environment in the Chan & Ba River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent forest fires severely damage forest ecosystems. One potential big issue, however, is the fact that the substantial release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from biomass combustion significantly impacts the global climate system and carbon balance. This study aims to assess the emissions of major carbon-containing gases from forest fires in mainland China between 2011 and 2021. Information on wildfires was obtained with Google Earth Engine (GEE) through the integration of MODIS products and Global Forest Above Ground Biomass (AGB) produced by the Climate Change Initiative Biomass (CCI BIOMASS) Programme. Utilizing the combustible load model and consideration of carbon emission factors in different vegetation, from 2011 to 2022, mainland China consumed an estimated 35.55 Tg C (3.23 Tg C yr−1) of above-ground combustible matter, resulting in 46.94 Tg (4.27 Tg yr−1) of carbon-containing gas emissions. Among these emissions, 42.16 Tg (3.83 Tg yr−1), 4.58 Tg (0.42 Tg yr−1), and 0.20 Tg (0.02 Tg yr−1) were attributed to CO 2 , CO, and CH 4. In general, carbon emissions from forest fires in mainland China exhibited a declining pattern with fluctuations. This indicates a substantial decrease in average annual emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 by 48.38% and 88.87%, respectively, compared to the previous century (1990s). Additionally, there was an average annual decrease in biomass consumption of approximately 35.4%. When analyzing the results on regional scales using linear regression and normalization methods, it was found that 81%–84% of provinces and regions in mainland China showed a decline in forest fire carbon emissions. Nevertheless, several areas in the northwest region displayed a noticeable rising trend. Pixel analysis is utilized in this paper to perform a spatial analysis of carbon emissions and fire locations associated with forestry fires in mainland China. This analysis clarifies the impact of combustible load distribution across different fire intensities on the interannual variability of carbon emissions from wildfires, thereby offering fire management authorities valuable insights. • Estimated carbon-containing gas emissions from wildfires in Mainland China at a pixel level in 2011–2021. • Compared 11-year average annual wildfire emissions with data from the previous century. • Explored the interrelationships among wildfire points, burnt area, net primary productivity, and fuel load. • Analyzed emission trends of major carbon gases from wildfires in Mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The academia has paid much attention to the ecological protection and poverty alleviation functions of carbon sink afforestation project (CSAP), an important means to realize forestry carbon sink. However, whether CSAP can promote county industrial structural upgrading (ISU) and propel high-quality economic development remains unanswered. Based on the panel data of counties in Sichuan Province, China in 2000–2016, this paper estimates the impacts of CSAP on ISU through difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing (VTT-DID) and synthetic control method. The results show that: CSAP can improve the advanced level of county industrial structure. This finding remains valid after a series of robustness tests. Government guidance dominates the impacts of CSAP on ISU, while market regulation plays a limited role in the impact mechanism due to the presence of elite capture. Government guidance and market regulation have a positive synergistic effect. The ISU impacts of CSAP are affected by resource endowment, level of economic development, and culture difference of ethnic monitories at the county level. Mechanism analysis shows that CSAP mainly acts on county ISU by increasing capital accumulation. The research results provide a reference path for China to transform its concept of economic development, and the key evidence for the fact that CSAP is an important way to realize high-quality economic development and environment protection at the county level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the shipping industry are hot topics but now facing serious challenges. One of them is the current lack of scientific guidance on ship carbon reduction. Precise identification of carbon emission hotspot areas and ship types in ports is the key to controlling carbon emissions from ships. In this paper, a method of identifying and extracting ship carbon emission hotspots based on data field theory is proposed. Based on the theory of field in physics, the spatiotemporal aggregation pattern of ship carbon emissions in the port region is analyzed with regard to the characteristics of ship emission trajectory data. Taking Wuhan Port as an example, we successfully extracted the ship's carbon emission hotspot area based on the proposed method and analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of the ship's carbon emission hotspot in the area from several perspectives. The method proposed in this paper can be further applied to coastal ports, which is conducive to exploring the distribution of carbon emission hotspots and the spatial and temporal variation patterns of ships in China's ports. It provides scientific guidance for relevant departments to formulate and implement policies to reduce carbon emissions from ports, and promotes the early realization of the dual carbon goal of China's shipping industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is an indispensable technology to achieve carbon neutrality in China, but confined by technology and economy, the offshore CCUS in China is still in the planning stage and has not yet reached the desired scale. Offshore source-sink matching and cost analysis of CCUS is the premise and basis of offshore CCUS deployment. Thus, based on the CO 2 storage potential of offshore sedimentary basins in China, this paper conducts the offshore source-sink matching and cost analysis of CCUS in China under different constraints. The result showed that: ⅰ) the CO 2 storage capacity of China's offshore sedimentary basins is estimated to be 767.3 Gt, which is enough to meet approximately 200 years of coal power CO 2 emissions in China. ⅱ) the CO 2 storage potential could reach 721.9 Mt/a by source-sink matching under different constraints. ⅲ) early opportunities for offshore CCUS would be in the Bohai Bay and Pearl River Mouth Basin, considering the compensation effect of CO 2 -EOR. ⅳ) combined with the CCUS cost and emission reduction in China under different time nodes, it is inferred that deploying offshore CCUS in China between 2030 and 2040 commercially will be advantageous. • The CO 2 storage potential in China's offshore sedimentary basin was evaluated. • The cost of offshore CCUS was analyzed under different technology combinations. • Bohai Bay and Pearl River Mouth Basin would be early opportunities for offshore CCUS. • 2030–2040 would be the favorable time to deploy the large-scale offshore CCUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to probe collaborative environmental governance (CEG) in China's "1 + N" policy framework for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper applies the Actor-network theory (ANT) as an analytical framework to explore carbon reduction policy coordination. We then model ANT's relations with an evolutionary game theory (EGT) model to examine the evolutionarily stable strategies in CO 2 emission reduction by various actors including the central government, local governments, commercial banks, and polluting enterprises. Our objective is to examine policy coordination as the key enabler for governing success via an ANT-based mechanism design in China's institutional context. Combining the strength of ANT with a four-party EGT model, we investigate how to improve policy coordination to mobilize the actor-network for promoting CEG. Simulations are conducted to examine the effectiveness of policy coordination involving multiple policy instruments for controlling carbon emissions. The central government fulfills leadership in translating the interests of other actors and shaping the desired collaborative network. Without proper coordination, environmental policies may counteract each other. Government transfers and subsidies have direct impacts, but in the long run enhanced competitiveness and profitability of enterprises represent the intrinsic key to CEG success. From a methodology perspective, policy simulation in an EGT framework represents a novel addition to the research toolbox that expands ANT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the proposal to achieve carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as a critical negative carbon technology is receiving extensive attention and concerns around the world. Under this context, the development of CCUS and relevant literature both have been experiencing an upsurge. However, the actual scale of CCUS is still far behind our expectations, especially, the various risks and uncertainties associated with its deployment planning have not yet been addressed clearly. Therefore, this paper provides an overview of model-based CCUS deployment pathways toward carbon neutrality, as well as the associated risks of financial, technical, environmental, health and safety (EHS) aspects. On this basis, we scrutinize the potential challenges that could lead to the pace of CCUS deployment inconsistent with the need to achieve a carbon-neutral target. The results suggest that the "Golden Age" of CCUS deployment lies from 2040 to 2060 in the world, while 2030–2050 for China. Furthermore, we found that inadequate exploration in geologic storage capacity also creates a critical conundrum for CCUS deployment and optimization, apart from typical challenges including high failure rate of projects, the lack of financial support and market stimulus, as well as incomplete regulation framework and risk-sharing mechanism. Lastly, this paper points out the further potential research direction, followed by policy implications and recommendations. • A comprehensive reference for CCUS deployment towards carbon neutrality is presented. • We discuss possible risks or uncertain factors for altering CCUS deployment paths and planning layout. • Future needs to improve geological storage exploration and estimation are highlighted. Further potential research direction and policy implications for CCUS are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support high-quality carbon peaking, a scenario analysis of carbon peaking pathways according to an industrial chain perspective considering both material and part production needs exploring. As a critical segment in the aluminum industrial chain, aluminum casting industry was focused on in this paper. A bottom-up scenario analysis approach was proposed for the carbon emission simulation of China's aluminum casting industry, including: (1) a carbon emission assessment model based on material flow analysis and life-cycle assessment, (2) key influence factor selection and variation scenario prediction, (3) static and dynamic scenario analysis, and (4) driving factor decomposition analysis. Key findings are as follows: (1) China's aluminum casting industry accounted for about 1.1% of the national carbon emissions in 2020; (2) the production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions of China's aluminum casting industry in 2020; (3) carbon peaking probabilities before 2030 for the static and dynamic scenario analysis are around 60% and 35%, respectively; and (4) the carbon peaking result differences in whether considering the production stage are about 20% for the static simulation and average 40% for the dynamic simulation. These findings effectively support the formulation of a high-quality carbon peaking pathway. • A bottom-up approach of scenario analysis was proposed for carbon peaking pathways. • Carbon emission assessment model was built with corresponding inventory data. • Static and dynamic scenario analyses of carbon emissions were compared. • Decomposition and sensitivity analysis of driving factors were conducted. • Production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main contribution of this paper is a demonstration of the importance of taking into account the evolution of the generation of value added and productivity to avoid biased prospective analysis of Chinese energy-related CO 2 emissions. To that end, the paper delivers a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition analysis of carbon emissions intensity from 1995 to 2014 for a balanced panel of disaggregated Chinese economic sectors. The paper shows that similar assumptions deliver different outcomes when prospective analyses are based on energy intensity, or alternatively its factorial decomposition, in order to take into account changes in the generation of value added (e.g., productivity). Following this hypothesis, the paper suggests that China will be unable to accomplish its pledged commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change, despite strong reductions in energy intensity. Analyses based on the usual (standard) approach, by using intensity measures instead of its factorial decomposition, reach the opposite conclusion. The main lesson from this paper is that alternative designs of prospective analysis (using alternative drivers or variables) leads to different lines of reasoning and conclusions. Therefore, researchers, consultants and policy makers will underestimate CO 2 emissions if they continue to base their prospective analysis on intensity indicators. • Prospective studies provide major biased estimates of Chinese carbon emissions. • New approaches highlight the relevance of value added generation and productivity. • Energy intensity must be disaggregated to perform unbiased prospective analysis. • Alternative drivers (variables) leads us to different lines of reasoning and conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nationwide unification of carbon emission right market in China has long been proposed yet not achieved. Launching of the nationwide trading center at Shanghai was a recent great step towards this target but the regional pilots covering respective zones are still in operation. With all trading data in those markets from their inceptions, this paper investigates the development status and trend of each submarket, based on which, it is revealed that sudden replacement of regional markets by the unified nationwide trading center is infeasible at the present stage, furthermore, feasibility of market merging is analyzed and optimized route for essential unification is designed. This paper contributes to deconstruct the value of carbon emission right and interprets its properties of option value, the equivalence of which value from the perspective of financial investment and enterprise operations is explored and formally established. Applying the geometric Brownian motion and optimal stopping time to model the carbon asset operation, option value of carbon emission right is estimated and marginal return-ability of its consumption is calculated for each region. Based on the analysis regionally, market merging is simulated and optimized route for nationwide market unification is proposed with policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With further urbanization, household consumption firmly plays a key role in China's national carbon emissions. However, current research concerning carbon issues has mainly focused on urban household consumption, and few studies have paid attention to herder households, leading to a research gap in the field of low-carbon shifting related to nomadic economies. In this study, we interviewed more than one-thousand herder households in the Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China. The household carbon emissions and their influencing factors were investigated across the herder households of 15 counties. Our findings revealed the following: (1) There exist differences in the amounts of household carbon emissions and their compositions in the Sanjiangyuan region. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the emission hotspots are mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the Sanjiangyuan region. (2) At the prefecture level, average personal emissions were larger in the Hainan Prefecture (3.26 t ce/year), while they were approximately 1.36 times that of the Huangnan Prefecture (2.4 t ce/year), though with smaller personal emissions. The indirect carbon emissions of the four prefectures all occupied larger percentages of household carbon emissions that were mainly contributed by food consumption and housing. (3) Family type was the main diver influencing personal carbon emissions in the Huangnan Prefecture, Guoluo Prefecture, and Yushu Prefecture. The more people living in the household, the lower the per capita carbon emissions. However, the effect size of potential carbon reductions was weakened when the number of family members rose to over three. (4) We propose that grazing prohibitions and low-carbon dietary shifts would contribute to low-carbon herder livelihoods, especially for small-sized households that should be peer-to-peer targeted by regional government propaganda, which may help to strengthen the implementation of in-depth low-carbon promotions across the Sanjiangyuan region and even the overall Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy resin composites have poor high temperature resistance and are prone to thermal damage during service in the aerospace field. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the thermal decomposition (pyrolysis) characteristics of carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composites and reasonably predict their thermal decomposition under arbitrary temperature conditions. The kinetic analysis was conducted on the thermal decomposition of carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy resin composites (USN15000/9A16/RC33, supplied by Weihai GuangWei Composites Co., Ltd. Weihai City, Shandong Province, China) under a nitrogen environment, and an improved model of pyrolysis prediction suitable for the arbitrary temperature program was developed in this work. The results showed that the carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composites begin to degrade at about 500 K, and the peak value of the weight loss rate at the respective heating rate appears in the range of 650 K to 750 K. A single-step reaction can characterize the thermal decomposition of carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composites in a nitrogen atmosphere, and a wide variety of isoconversional approaches can be used for the calculation of the kinetic parameters. The proposed model of pyrolysis prediction can avoid numerous limitations of temperature integration, and it shows good prediction accuracy by reducing the temperature rise between sampling points. This study provides a reference for the kinetic analysis and pyrolysis prediction of carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy composites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a global context where sustainable growth is imperative, understanding carbon emissions in significant regions is essential. Henan Province, being a vital region in China for population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, plays a crucial role in this understanding. This study, rooted in the need to identify strategies that not only meet China's broader carbon neutrality objectives but also offer insights regarding global sustainability models, utilizes the STIRPAT model combined with scenario analysis. The aim was to forecast carbon emission trajectories from 2020 to 2060 across the key industries—electricity, steel, cement, transportation, coal, and chemical—that are responsible for over 80% of the total emissions in Henan. The findings suggest a varied carbon peak timeline: the steel and cement industries might achieve their peak before 2025, and the transportation, coal, and chemical sectors might achieve theirs around 2030, whereas that of the power industry could be delayed until 2033. Significantly, by 2060—a landmark year for Chinese carbon neutrality ambitions—only the electricity sector in Henan shows potential for zero emissions under an extreme scenario. This study's results underscore the importance of region-specific strategies for achieving global carbon neutrality and offer a blueprint for other populous, industrialized regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous increase in China's carbon emission reduction efforts, energy transformation and energy revolution are advancing in multiple dimensions. To optimize the energy structure and carbon emission management, researchers must conduct in-depth studies on various factors and influencing mechanisms. Based on remote sensing data, such as aerosol optical thickness and nighttime light images, and natural and socioeconomic statistical data from 2013, 2016, and 2019, this study used a multiscale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR) to study the characteristics and factors influencing energy carbon emissions and air pollution indicators in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. The energy structure and energy transformation models were characterized by analyzing the scale and spatial heterogeneity characteristics of the factors influencing energy carbon emissions and air pollution in Ningxia. The research results show that for energy carbon emissions, energy consumption has changed from a global-scale variable to a small-scale variable, and per capita disposable income became the largest impact-scale variable in 2019. Energy consumption is the most significant positive index of energy carbon emissions and air pollution, followed by per capita disposable income and river network distance. The per capita GDP is a significant negative indicator. The energy transformation in the Ningxia region shows temporal differences and regional imbalance, and the air quality, energy carbon emission index, and its influencing factors in the energy transformation industrial upgrading region have significantly changed, highlighting the achievements of China's energy transformation policy and the construction of the Ningxia new energy comprehensive demonstration zone. This study analyzes the scale and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of factors influencing energy carbon emissions and air pollution indicators and has strong practical reference significance for promoting energy transformation, energy conservation, and emission reductions according to local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon reduction effect of bio-based levulinic acid chemicals is a matter of concern. This work reports the life cycle assessment of methyl levulinate based on local biomass refineries in China. The final LCA results showed that the entire life cycle of methyl levulinate could reduce by approximately 24% of carbon emissions compared with fossil diesel of equal quality. To address the lack of effective uncertainty analysis in current LCA research on levulinic acid chemicals, this study conducted a comprehensive and detailed assessment of inventory data and utilized Taylor series expansion to obtain uncertainty of the LCA results. When connected to a localized background database, the LCA results showed high credibility. According to the sensitivity analysis and Aspen optimization results, further technical improvement schemes are proposed, including improving thermal efficiency, use of clean electricity, and use of clean methanol. Prospective analysis shows that combined implementation of the above strategies can further reduce the existing carbon emissions by more than half. Highlights: • The environmental impact of the bio-based methyl levulinate supply chain was assessed. • A detailed and transparent description of supply chain and production process was presented. • The quality of life cycle inventory data was evaluated and the uncertainty of LCA results was obtained by Taylor series expansion. • The Aspen optimization simulation was carried out based on actual factories and further energy-saving and emission reduction schemes were proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Petroleum has become a strategic resource to the national economy, and forecasting its demand is a critical step to supporting energy planning and policy-making for carbon reduction. We first conducted a characteristic analysis of end consumption for petroleum products, and the key affecting factors are identified through an extended logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. Afterwards, the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) was adopted to predict the petroleum products demand by considering the potential impacts of different policies on the identified key factors. Through comparative analysis of three scenarios including five sub-scenarios, the findings show that the dual carbon constraints are crucial to petroleum demand control. Under the enforcement of existing carbon peaking policies, the petroleum products demand will peak around 2043 at 731.5 million tons, and the impact of energy intensity-related policies is more significant than that of activity level. However, even if the existing policy efforts are continued, supporting the carbon-neutral target will not be easy. By further strengthening the constraints, the demand will peak around 2027 at 680 million tons, and the abatement contribution will come mainly from industry (manufacturing), construction, and transportation. Additional abatement technologies are necessary for the petroleum industry to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is making a challenging effort to achieve its ambitious goal of becoming carbon–neutral by 2060. Therefore, the Chinese government should develop effective policy tools to improve its carbon neutrality plan. Due to this importance, an empirical study is required to examine the comprehensive effect of the carbon neutrality policy on CO2 emissions in China. Also, the role of economic development on the environment, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the carbon neutrality-CO2 emissions nexus, has yet to be examined. Considering this gap, the present study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality policy and the economy on CO2 emissions at China's provincial and regional levels from 2006 to 2017. We use a comprehensive approach to measure the carbon neutrality policy through the source control and sink increase perspectives. This study performs the panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and the feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) regression techniques to control the heteroscedasticity and cross-sectional correlation issues. The results show that an improvement in energy efficiency and renewable energy power generation decreases the per capita CO2 emissions at the provincial level from the source control perspective. From the sink increase perspective, only green space development affects CO2 emissions reduction; the development of carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) does not. Also, this study shows that the EKC hypothesis holds true in China nationally and in the central region. Due to differing regional development patterns, the impact of carbon neutrality policy on CO2 emissions varies across regions. This study suggests specific policy implications such as increasing R&D investment per unit of GDP to support CCUS technologies at provincial and regional levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]