Search

Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts on society. Being able to simulate worst-case scenarios of such events for present and future climates is hence crucial for short and long-term adaptation. In this paper, we are interested in low-probability cold events, whose probability is deemed to decrease with climate change. Large ensembles of simulations allow to better analyse the mechanisms and characteristics of such events, but can require a lot of computational resources. Rather than simulating very large ensembles of normal climate trajectories, rare event algorithms allow sampling the tail of distributions more efficiently. Such algorithms have been applied to simulate extreme heat waves. They have emphasized the role of atmospheric circulation in such extremes. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of extreme cold spells simulated by a rare event algorithm. We focus first on winter cold temperatures that have occurred in France from 1950 to 2021. We investigate winter mean temperatures in France (December, January, and February) and identify a record-shattering event in 1963. We find that, although the frequency of extreme cold spells decreases with time, their intensity is stationary. We applied a stochastic weather generator approach with importance sampling, to simulate the coldest winters that could occur in a factual and counterfactual climate. We hence simulated ensembles of worst winter cold spells that are consistent with reanalyses. We find that a few simulations reach colder temperatures than the record-shattering event of 1963. The atmospheric circulation that prevails during those events is analyzed and compared to the observed circulation during the record-breaking events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the socio-political implications of sceptical metaphors in French discourse about the climate crisis. Existing literature has demonstrated the prevalence of religion metaphors in English sceptical discourse. Yet, in France, religious references in language use are limited as such references have been considered "anti-revolutionary" since the storming of the Bastille, in 1789. I thus ask to what extent sceptical metaphors in French climate crisis discourse differ from English sceptical metaphors. To this aim, I conduct a corpus-based study relying on texts published in the extreme-right wing French newspaper "Valeurs Actuelles". The metaphors identified in this corpus are analysed so as to uncover the mini-narratives related to sceptical metaphor scenarios. Consistent with existing literature, the analysis establishes the prevalence of the religion scenario. However, the research highlights significant argumentative exploitations: metaphor users define the source concept according to cultural viewpoints on religion and ideological understanding of the religious lexicon. I demonstrate that religion metaphors prevail because associated source concepts (environmentalism as islam) are not conceived as being part of the domain of religion, according to these (extreme-right-wing) discourse producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An increase in fire weather is expected in a warming climate, but its translation to fire activity (fire numbers and sizes) remains largely unknown. Additionally, disentangling the extent to which geographic and seasonal extensions as well as intensification contribute to future fire activity remain largely unknown. Aims: We aimed to assess the impact of future climate change on fire activity in southeastern France and estimate changes in spatial and seasonal distributions. Methods: We projected future fire activities using a Bayesian modelling framework combined with ensemble climate simulations. Changes in numbers of escaped fires (>1 ha), large fires (>100 ha) and burned area were studied for different emission scenarios or degrees of global warming. Key results: Fire activity could increase by up to +180% for +4°C of global warming, with large expansions of fire-prone regions and long seasonal lengthenings. Overall, changes will be dominated by intensification within the historical fire niche, representing two-thirds of additional future fire activity, half of this occurring during the high fire season. Conclusions: This study confirms that major changes in fire niches would be expected in Euro-Mediterranean regions. Implications: Long-term strategic policies for adapting prevention and suppression resources and ecosystems are needed to account for such changes. Projections of fire activity in southeastern France show that very large increases in fire metrics arise mostly from an intensification in the already fire-prone region during the core of the current fire season and only to a lower degree from an expansion of the fire-prone region and lengthening of the season. (This paper is part of a Special Issue that includes papers on research presented at the IX International Conference on Forest Fire Research, Coimbra, Portugal, November 2022.) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments worldwide are increasingly concerned about ensuring a balance between economic and environmental well being. Global economies, particularly developing ones, emphasize the importance of achieving escofriendly growth to maintain the levels of the ecological footprint while achieving higher economic growth. The ecological footprint is a comprehensive indicator of environmental degradation. It is used to assess the state of the environment because it reflects the impact of all human activities on nature. This study contributes to the literature by offering a novel analytical approach for solving complex interactions of ecological footprint antecedents, advancing the theoretical reasoning behind how government policy combines to explain the ecological footprint from some G7 countries (France, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and Germany) from 1996 to 2020. To establish a composite score of environmental footprint, we used complexity theory as well as fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and necessary condition analysis (NCA). Our analysis revealed that low expenditures on environmental protection and waste management, low taxes on transport, and high energy use are sufficient conditions to be included in the causal configurations for a high ecological footprint. Additionally, the sufficient solution, which has the highest coverage score that produces a low ecological footprint relies on high expenditure on environmental protection and high taxes on transportation. In this framework, Japan, Italy, and France have more effective government policies in terms of reducing the ecological footprint., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Dynamic LCIA has been developed in the past 12 years almost exclusively for climate change impact assessment, and especially the Global Warming Potential (GWP) indicator. Recently, discussions have taken place in France on the issue of integrating, a dynamic GWP indicator in the 2020 regulation (noted RE2020) on new buildings. This regulation uses a combination of static and dynamic indicators. Discussions to produce a standard on a dynamic GWP indicator could be soon launched at European level. This close perspective of using dynamic indicator into regulation recalls the importance using scientifically sound indicators. Therefore, this article re-examines the fundamentals concepts of the dynamic GWP indicator on which the future regulation is based. Method: Three basic principles of LCA are recalled: (i) no inventory flow should be omitted from an assessment, (ii) all impacts of all substances contributing to an impact category should have the same Time Horizon of the Impact (THI) in the indicator used for that impact category, and (iii) the time horizon of the impact has no reason to change as a function of time. It is then shown that the current and common version of the dynamic GWP (Levasseur et al. 2010) does not respect these principles. A new expression of dynamic GWP is provided in order to respect the three basic principles. Results: Both dynamic GWP indicators are compared according to their meaning and according to the decrease that they quantify compared to static GWP. The initial dynamic GWP indicator (Levasseur et al. 2010) sets a fixed Time of Observation Duration (TOD), chosen subjectively, after which nor flows nor impacts on climate change are assessed. The new dynamic GWP sets a TOD according to the life cycle duration (LCD) and the THI that avoids any flow omission and guarantees the full account of the impact of all flows. THI and LCD have independent values, but both time entities are related chronologically: THI has to be considered to account for the full effect for the very last emission of the product's life cycle. Thus, the total observation duration (TOD) to consider for any dynamic approach is TOD = LCD + THI. The initial dynamic indicator overestimates the effect of temporary carbon storage of around 25% at the time 50 years. The raised issue is not only an implementation issue due to the choice of TOD, it is a conceptual issue, because even in the case of TOD > LCD, the value of THI would still be variable according to the moment of emissions. Finally, the notation between dynamic and static GWP is not harmonised which can lead to confusion. Conclusion: The initial GWP indicator (Levasseur et al. 2010) represents an assessment of the impact within a subjectively chosen observation period and neither the flows nor the effects of these flows on climate change are taken into account beyond this limit. The new equation provided for the dynamic indicator takes into account the totality of the flows and the entireness of their impact according to the value of THI; it thus represents only and exclusively the effect of delaying emissions compared to the static GWP. This new method is totally applicable for the regulation, as only new FRE2020(t) coefficients, produced in this paper, have to be changed. At a time when the dynamic GWP indicator is being considered as a regulatory tool on a French or even European scale, it seems crucial to consider its scientific relevance, because using the wrong method could lead to an overestimation of the possible beneficial effects of temporary carbon storage in the construction sector as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether farmers adapt their pesticide use to cope with weather shocks. Using a unique, exhaustive dataset detailing all active substance purchases per zip code in France between 2014 and 2019, we econometrically explain abnormal pesticide purchase deviations by weather shocks. We identify heterogeneous weather impacts across pesticide types, seasons and locations. Because our analyses suggest limited year-to-year pesticide storage and farmers' adaptation along other margins, we interpret our estimates as true weather impacts on pesticide use. Our preferred estimates suggest that, ceteris paribus , farmers increase pesticide use by seven to fifteen per cent in 2050 under a RCP4.5 climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Antipode is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Oilseeds & Fats, Crops & Lipids (OCL) is the property of EDP Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of the study is to estimate the nexus between energy insecurity and energy poverty with the role of climate change and other environmental concerns. We used DEA like WP methods and properties of MCDA, a most common form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate the nexus between constructs. This paper presents a measurement and analysis of G7 countries' energy, economic, social, and environmental performance associated with energy poverty indexes. The study used the multiple, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators, including energy economics and environmental consideration of energy poverty. The net energy consumption of al G7 economies is equal to 34 percent of the entire world along with the net estimate GDP score of around 50 percent. Using DEA modelling and estimation technique, our research presented valuable insights for readers, theorists and policy makers on energy, environment, energy poverty and climate change mitigation. For this reasons, all these indicators combined in a mathematical composite indicator to measure energy, economic, social, and environmental performance index (EPI). Results show that Canada has the highest EPII score, which shows that Canada's capacity to deal with energy self-sufficiency, economic development, and environmental performance is greater than the other G7 countries. France and Italy rank second and third. Japan comes next with 0.50 EPI scores, while the USA has the lowest average EPI score environment vulnerable even though have higher economic development among the G7 group countries. We suggest a policy framework to strengthen the subject matter of the study., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Extreme droughts have a strong impact on agricultural production. In France, the 2003 drought generated records of yield losses at a national scale for grassland (more than 30%) and for cereals (more than 10% for soft winter wheat and winter barley). These extreme events raise the question of farm resilience in the future. Studying them makes it possible to adapt risk management policy to climate change. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to analyze the frequency and the intensity of extreme drought in 2050 and their impact on crop yield losses (grassland and cereals) in France. We used the DOWKI (Drought and Overwhelmed Water Key Indicator) meteorological index based on a cumulative water anomaly, which can explain droughts and their consequences on agricultural yield losses at a departmental scale. Then, using the ARPEGE-Climat Model developed by Meteo-France, DOWKI was projected in 2050 and grassland, soft winter wheat, and winter barley yield losses were simulated. The results compare the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts between the climate in 2000 and 2050. Our results show that the frequency of extreme droughts (at least as intense as in 2003) doubled in 2050. In addition, the yield losses due to 10-year droughts increased by 35% for grassland and by more than 70% for cereals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By the end of the 1990s in France, the first labels have been created to distinguish the singularity of 20th-century architecture. However, a large part of its building stock suffers from energy deficiencies, and most of them need major retrofitting to align with today's habitability standards. If current technologies offer a wide array of devices that meet performance demands, their implementation does not always comply with heritage protection goals. As part of a transdisciplinary research project, our team studies the acceptability and feasibility of the renovation of various buildings of the 20th-century, using "the ventilated double-skin". The goal is to set renovation protocols that incorporate architectural and cultural evaluation in the technical analysis of energy and comfort needs. In this paper, we present our methodology and first results and aim to highlight the importance of complementary approaches to help inform sustainable interventions on this unique heritage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revue du Financier is the property of Societe Cybel and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The sedimentary sequence of La Narce du Béage Basin is one of the few natural archives covering the last 18 ka cal. BP in the French Massif Central. This paper focuses on the palaeoecological reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes affecting this shallow periglacial lake from the Late-Glacial to the Early Holocene. After field surveys and geophysical mapping, two cores (cores A and D) were extracted and dated. Plant macrofossils, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and diatom assemblages were compared within the cores to study vegetation, temperature, pH, water level and ice cover changes through time. During the Oldest Dryas (18–14.75 ka cal. BP), climatic conditions were the coldest with a short ice-free season allowing the development of periphytic diatoms only (ecologically comparable to Arctic ones). A cold and dry steppe landscape – exposed to severe erosion – comprised an herbaceous and shrub flora (e.g. Artemisia , Chenopodiaceae, Helianthemum, Ephedra, Hippophaë, Juniperus). Animal presence is suggested by coprophilous fungi. Periphytic diatoms and allochtonous pollen (Cedrus) underline windy conditions, and the possible erosion of neo-formed soils. Then, during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.75–12.7 ka cal. BP), the ice-free season increased and some trees/shrubs (Salix, Betula and Juniperus) established locally within open grasslands. During the Younger Dryas (12.7–11.7 ka cal. BP) cooler conditions favoured steppe taxa again (Helianthemum, Achillea, Artemisia , Caryophyllaceae, Ranunculaceae) and erosion increased. The ice cover on the lake prevailed even if the conditions were not as cold as during the Oldest Dryas. During the Preboreal (11.7–10 ka cal. BP) Isoëtes echinospora and I. lacustris developed in the eulittoral zone of the lake, which was surrounded by a swamp forest (with Betula nana and B. pubescens). Pinus sylvestris, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana and trees from the Quercetum mixtum rapidly established in the uplands. Occurrences of Gaeumannomyces and Xylomyces fungi – both phytopathogens on broadleaved trees – and decreasing herb values indirectly hint at a close forest canopy. At the beginning of the Boreal (10 ka cal. BP), aquatic and semi-aquatic taxa developed on open water due to longer ice-free seasons (diatoms, micro-algae, Alisma plantago-aquatica, Potamogeton, Typha). The final terrestrialization towards a mire occurred as a consequence of the Holocene warming and related to water chemistry changes (acidification, eutrophication). • During the last deglaciation, a very shallow lake established as demonstrated by palaeoecological data, such as epiphytic diatoms, living on rocks. • Late-Glacial steppe landscape with severe erosion, open grassland and possible mega-herbivore presence. Arctic-like conditions. • Development of shrubs or trees during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial and reduced ice-free season. • Dry and cold conditions persisted from the Younger Dryas to the Early Preboreal. Oligotrophic flora (Isoetids) established in the eulittoral zone. • During the post-glacial warming, the lake tended to acidify. Peat flora and organic matter accumulated and led to the terrestrialization of the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Overheating regulations and calculation methods in 26 European countries were compared. • Most of the existing calculation methods are outdated and do not fit climate-proof buildings. • France requires a mixed-mode operation of naturally ventilated households. • The UK developed a heatwave-based calculation approach. • Comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated calculation approaches are needed. With the ongoing significance of overheating calculations in the residential building sector, building codes such as the European Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) are essential for harmonizing the indicators and performance thresholds. This paper investigates Europe's overheating calculation methods, indicators, and thresholds and evaluates their ability to address climate change and heat events. e study aims to identify the suitability of existing overheating calculation methods and propose recommendations for the EPBD. The study results provide a cross-sectional overview of twenty-six European countries. The most influential overheating calculation criteria are listed the best approaches are ranked. The paper provides a thorough comparative assessment and recommendations to align current calculations with climate-sensitive metrics. The results suggest a framework and key performance indicators that are comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated to calculate overheating and modify the EU's next building energy efficiency regulations. The results can help policymakers and building professionals to develop the next overheating calculation framework and approach for the future development of climate-proof and resilient residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

France is one of the countries that have made commendable progress towards accomplishing sustainable development goals but still struggles with combating environmental challenges. Decarbonizing the energy sector by deploying clean energy and reducing fossil fuels in the energy mix are essential steps. The study uses annual time series data from 1980 to 2021 and employs the ridge regression estimation technique to estimate a twice-differentiable transcendental production function, which approximates the second-order Taylor series to explore the potential for such decarbonization for France. The study finds that substitution possibilities exist between clean energy and fossil fuels, with substantial substitution possibilities coming from nuclear energy. Nuclear energy and renewables are found to be complements that can be deployed concurrently, but since nuclear energy already constitutes a significant proportion of clean energy for France, the study recommends increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the overall energy mix as the most plausible path to decarbonization. Other complementary sustainable energy policies are recommended in the body of the paper. • The substitution elasticities between clean energy and fossil fuels were estimated. • A second-order Taylor series trans-log production function was specified. • Substitutability is found between clean energy and fossil fuels. • Nuclear energy currently dominates France's clean energy mix. • Increasing renewables in the clean energy mix is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The French coast facing the Bay of Biscay (North-East Atlantic) is characterised by the presence of small macrotidal and turbid estuaries, including the Charente, which is geographically located between the two large estuaries of the Gironde and the Loire (south-west France). Multi-year, multi-site and high-frequency water quality surveys have shown that the Loire and, to a lesser extent, the Gironde suffer from summer hypoxia. These observations raised the question of the possible occurrence of hypoxia, particularly in one of these small estuaries, the Charente, which flows into the Bay of Marennes-Oléron, the first oyster-farming area in France. Unlike its two large neighbours, the Charente estuary is not continuously monitored, although it is subject to similar climatic changes and anthropogenic pressures, making it impossible to assess potential risks to the ecosystem. Here we present a first study of dissolved oxygen in the Charente estuary based on a combination of longitudinal studies along the estuary axis and instrumented sites to determine the intensity and spatial extent of deoxygenation. Temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity sensors were deployed at several sites during the summers of 2018, 2019 and 2020 to record temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen every 15 min. The high-frequency dataset is compared with a long-term low-frequency dataset (1975–2022; 8–12 measurements per year) to determine whether or not there is a deterioration in the oxygenation of the Charente estuary. The high-frequency dataset shows a high variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) with a clear influence of the tidal cycle. During summer, DO concentrations are often below 5 mgL-1 and sometimes even below 2 mgL-1 , indicating the presence of a summer estuarine oxygen minimum zone with an extension along the estuarine axis of about 20–25 km. Temperature is the main factor controlling DO in the Charente estuary, which limits preventive management strategies and, in the context of global warming, raises questions about the long-term suitability of estuarine conditions for the needs of the biological communities, particularly migratory fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate impacts of deep enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have been understudied in the academic literature. Using life-cycle analysis (LCA) conducted in accordance with ISO 14040 and ISO 14044 standards, this paper explores the climate change impacts of two deep EGS. The first study was in Reykjanes, Iceland, where a single well, IDDP-2/DEEPEGS, was drilled to a depth of 4.6 km for the purposes of additional electricity production from an existing power plant. The second study involved two wells with side-tracks (depth > 5000 m), drilled to serve a new heat and power co-generation plant located on an old oil field site in Vendenheim, France. Climate change impacts for the sites were estimated in the range 1.6–17.4 gCO2e/kWh and 6.9–13.9 gCO2e/kWh for Reykjanes and Vendenheim, respectively. Although the EGS projects are very different, both outcomes are low when compared to non-renewable alternatives and akin to best-in-class renewable alternatives. The main impact at the Reykjanes demonstration site were the greenhouse gas emissions released from the borehole, an effect that could be avoided by carbon capture and storage/mineralisation/utilisation. In the case of Vendenheim, further reductions in emissions could be achieved via more extensive adoption of circular economy principles in design and procurement. • First two life-cycle assessments of deep enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). • Climate change impacts for Reykjanes estimated in the range 1.6–17.4 gCO2e/kWh. • Climate change impacts for Vendenheim estimated in the range 6.9–13.9 gCO2e/kWh. • Emissions reductions at Reykjanes achievable through carbon capture and storage. • Circular economy design/procurement principles could reduce emissions at Vendenheim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain exposed to flooding and erosion enhanced by SLR. Here, we quantify the exposure of the coastal land heritage portfolio of the French Conservatoire du littoral (Cdl). We find that 30% (~40%) of the Cdl lands owned (projected to be owned) are located below the contemporary highest tide level. Nearly 10% additional surface exposure is projected by 2100 under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) and 2150 for the moderate scenario (SSP2-4.5). The increase in exposure is largest along the West Mediterranean coast of France. We also find that Cdl land exposure increases more rapidly for SLR in the range of 0–1 m than for SLR in the range 2–4 m. Thus, near-future uncertainty on SLR has the largest impact on Cdl land exposure evolution and related land acquisition planning. Concerning erosion, we find that nearly 1% of Cdl land could be lost in 2100 if observed historical trends continue. Adding the SLR effect could lead to more than 3% land loss. Our study confirms previous findings that Cdl needs to consider land losses due to SLR in its land acquisition strategy and start acquiring land farther from the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2018, TROPOMI on-board Sentinel-5P provides unprecedented images of NO2 tropospheric columns at a relatively high spatial resolution with a daily revisit. This study aims at assessing the potential of the TROPOMI-PAL data to estimate the national to urban NO x emissions in France from 2019 to 2021, using the variational mode of the recent Community Inversion Framework coupled to the CHIMERE regional transport model at a spatial resolution of 10×10 km2. The seasonal to inter-annual variations of the NO x French emissions are analyzed. A specific attention is paid to the current capability to quantify strong anomalies in the NO x emissions at intra-annual scales such as the ones due to the COVID-19 pandemic, by using TROPOMI NO2 observations. The inversions lead to a decrease of the average emissions over 2019–2021 compared to 2016 of -3 % at national scale, which is lower than the decrease of -14 % between these years in the estimates of the French Technical Center for Air Pollution and Climate Change (CITEPA). This may be linked especially to the limited level of constraint brought by the TROPOMI data, due to the observation coverage and the ratio between the current level of errors in the observation and the chemistry-transport model, and the NO2 signal from the French anthropogenic sources. Focusing on local analysis and selecting the days during which the TROPOMI coverage is good over a specific local source, we compute the reductions in the NO x anthropogenic emission estimates by the inversions from spring 2019 to spring 2020. These reductions are particularly pronounced for the largest French urban areas (e.g., -26 % from April 2019 to April 2020 in the Paris urban area) and along major roadways, consistently with the reduction in the intensity of vehicle traffic reported during the lockdown period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agro-climatic indicators (AgcIs) provide a suitable tool to evaluate the implications of climate change on agriculture by simplifying plant–climate interactions. However, developing reliable AgcIs requires high-quality historical climate datasets. Consequently, reanalysis products (RPs) are frequently used as a potential reference dataset for observed climate in agricultural studies. This study aims to compare five RPs (ERA5, ERA5-Land, SCOPE Climate, FYRE Climate, and RFHR) at reproducing observed AgcIs over France. The RPs are evaluated against the SYNOP meteorological data over the 1996–2012 period, focusing on six AgcIs specific to apple, maize, and vine crops. The findings show that RPs perform well in reproducing temperature-based AgcIs, with some slight discrepancies in areas with complex topography. However, all RPs tend to overestimate precipitation amounts and to underestimate dry days, leading to a poor performance in reproducing precipitation-based AgcIs. This study emphasizes the need for a thorough evaluation of the RPs in developing both temperature-based and precipitation-based AgcIs, especially if findings are intended to support operational agricultural decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South of France is a biodiversity hotspot within Europe. Here, we present a comprehensive review of surveys conducted in the Cent Fonts aquifer, an overlooked subterranean biodiversity hotspot embedded in a region rich in stygobiotic species and threatened by climate change and water abstraction projects. Key studies, spanning from 1950 to 2006, show a progression in survey methods and results, although troglobiotic species remain poorly documented. With 43 stygobiotic species recorded, the Cent Fonts is the richest stygobiont hotspot in France. Most species are regional endemics, a quarter of which are considered vulnerable by the IUCN. The Cent Fonts also hosts several relict species and is the type locality of four species. Such a high biological value clearly deserves to be preserved. Our analysis warns of a possible decline in biodiversity, as eight of the species recorded in the 20th century were absent from the 2006 survey, suggesting potential threats of unknown origin. The capture of the Cent Font springs for water abstraction is discussed as a potential threat to this ecosystem and its unique biodiversity. Three new species of stygobiotic molluscs are described, one of which was collected in the Cent Fonts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insecticide toxicity may strongly vary with temperature, and interspecific differences have been commonly reported for this relationship. A differential influence of temperature on insecticide toxicity between pests and their natural enemies may have important consequences on biological control in a global warming context. This study aimed to investigate cross effects between temperature and three insecticides—i.e., chlorantraniliprole, emamectin and spinosad—on the mortality of a major pest in orchards, Cydia pomonella L., and two of its natural enemies in southern France, the predatory earwig Forficula auricularia L. and the introduced parasitoid Mastrus ridens Horstmann. We observed a decreased efficiency of emamectin and spinosad with increasing temperature on mortality of codling moth, while no influence of temperature on chlorantraniliprole efficacy was observed. Increasing temperatures increased the toxicity of spinosad and chlorantraniliprole against M. ridens and only for emamectin on F. auricularia. This study provides essential insight to make recommendations for using these insecticides in combination with two natural enemies to control the codling moth in prevision of global warming. Our results suggest that the use of spinosad may become sub-optimal under higher temperatures. In contrast, chlorantraniliprole should be suitable under warmer climatic conditions to control C. pomonella and the less detrimental against F. auricularia and M. ridens. To conserve the use of biological control strategies relying on F. auricularia, alternating use of emamectin during early spring, when its toxicity is the lowest on this natural enemy, chlorantraniliprole during summer could limit resistance risks in codling moth populations and reduce the insecticides' impact on the populations of natural enemies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Plants, People, Planet is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Organizational sustainability is a multi-facet paradigm widely used to address perennial business challenges such as climate change, industrial waste, the economies of scale and social well-being, etc. In the last three decades, extensive research has been performed on ecological or economic sustainability, ignoring the third pillar of sustainability. Given the importance of humans and society-a center-stage of inclusive development-this paper aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to examine the growth of organizational social sustainability (OSS) from 2000 to 2021 during MDG & SDG periods. A total of 1566 publications are analyzed using Scopus and the Web of Science (WoS) database. Citation networks, bibliographic coupling, and thematic mapping have explored influential work, intellectual structure, and research gaps. The study findings demonstrated that most publications are during the SDG period, with Sustainability as the most productive journal and the USA as the most contributing country. The top 10 active institutions are from Australia, France, and Spain. The top contributing authors are from France, but the USA is at the top in citations. Contributions are lacking from large portions of Africa. Keyword analysis showed that "social sustainability," "sustainable development," "environmental sustainability," "sustainable supply change management," "circular economy," and "social life cycle assessment" are the main topics. Keyword analysis and thematic mapping show that despite increased publications in the field of organizational social sustainability, OSS research is still far from focusing on the stakeholders' benefits, satisfaction, and subjective well-being. Moreover, quantitative assessment of OSS based on sustainability standards such as Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) and Value Reporting Foundation (VRF) standards was found scant in the given field. The present research concluded with scope and opportunity for future research in the area of OSS. • Bibliometric analysis to examine organizational social sustainability during MDG & SDG periods. • Scopus & WoS data used in R Studio & Vosviewer. • Citation networks, bibliographic coupling, and thematic mapping have explored influential work, intellectual structure. • Global Reporting Initiatives and Value Reporting Foundation standards was found scant in the given field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stem cracks are becoming a major problem affecting timber quality and its economic value; their frequency may increase with increasing frequency and severity of drought stress due to climate change. Several major conifer species are affected, but such damage was mentioned for the first time in France for hybrid larch (Larix x eurolepis) in 1993. Even though a link was made with severe drought some years ago, it was believed, at that time, that the rapid growth of hybrids might be the cause. Our study is intended to disentangle the role of growth versus drought in the appearance of cracks, based on observations in two field genetic trials. Summer drought was clearly identified as the main trigger of longitudinal cracks. Roughly 5–15 years of age seems to be the critical period during which the occurrence of most of the cracks was observed. Wood formed during this period corresponds to juvenile wood, well-known for its weaknesses. Nevertheless, some trees escaped cracking damage: compared to trees with cracks, these looked slender (higher HD ratio), had wider rings and greater grain angle in the early years but similar wood density. Fast growth has often been cited as enhancing crack occurrence. This conclusion is corroborated by our observations that, within a given variety or family, trees with cracks were consistently larger than trees without cracks. Nevertheless, this conclusion should be qualified by the additional observation that, across varieties/families, the faster growing material were not necessarily the most prone to cracks, highlighting the crucial role of the genetic background of the material planted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex and interconnected water challenges linked to global climate change and natural and anthropogenic water resources pressure have become major challenges in the 21st century. The Garonne River and its accompanying alluvial aquifers are considered the most important source for agricultural activities in the Garonne Valley, Nouvelle-Aquitaine Region, southwest France. The water is used for irrigation in summer and to reduce frost damage in spring. The alluvial shallow aquifer is recharged by rainfall, lateral inflow from the hillside, and seepage from the riverbed during the flood periods. The aquifer maintains the flow of the river during dry periods. Moreover, the potential recharge of this aquifer is particularly sensitive to annual climatic fluctuations and consequently affects surrounding ecosystems and related socio-economic activities. The increasing impacts of climate change have increased the concern about the availability of these resources. Various adaptation strategies have been considered to mitigate and adapt to the new situation in southwest France. The artificial recharge of the alluvial aquifer is one such regional adaptation strategy to adapt to climate change. The study has two main objectives: to assess the natural and anthropogenic influence on the groundwater chemistry, and to model water infiltration, and understand the aquifer response and, consequently, the effects on river baseflow. The TAG (Technopole Agen-Garonne) project aims to increase the economic wealth of the region while respecting the region's agricultural traditions. Runoff water from the TAG zone is collected in retention basins and is a potential source to recharge the shallow alluvial aquifer. Sampling campaigns were carried out during the summer of 2019 to collect groundwater samples from several observation wells. Groundwater levels were measured in 132 wells/boreholes to determine the groundwater level fluctuations and create piezometric maps. Piper, spatial distribution, and ionic ratio plots were used to determine the dominant hydrochemical processes and to delineate the hydrochemical facies in the study area. The groundwater chemistry is controlled by silicate weathering and anthropogenic influence. Groundwater quality appears to be affected by the river water in the wells located in the low plain area. The measurements showed that the groundwater levels in the wells located near the river increase more than 2 m after a flood event. The artificial recharge has increased the groundwater level by more than 1 m close to the infiltration basin after a rainstorm. Similarly, a three-dimensional (3D) groundwater model shows a similar magnitude aquifer response to the induced infiltration. The modeling-obtained result shows that the infiltrated water would take about 4 months to reach the Garonne River, which is an appropriate time to maintain the river's low-flow and thermal buffering capacity, and thus the functioning of its ecosystems during dry periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of Nature-Based Solutions for climate change adaptation (NBaS) is being increasingly acknowledged, very few studies investigate the status of these solutions in higher education syllabi. In an effort to bridge this gap, this study assessed the position of the NBaS notion in French Master's programs. Based on a survey questionnaire, several interviews and a text mining analysis of the Master's contents, this paper identified, localised and analysed the French Masters that presented links with NBaS related concepts. This analysis revealed that the notion of NBaS is far from being mastered. This might be caused by a conceptual misunderstanding of definitions. While text mining revealed that the building blocks of the NBaS framework are present, much still needs to be done for connecting them together. A combined analysis of the findings derived from this study led to recommendations to better introduce NBaS in Masters programs in the future. • The term of Nature-Based (adaptation) Solution is far for being well mastered. • Based on the existing definition, the concept should also be better explained. • Few courses are actually dedicated to climate change and how to adapt to it. • The complexity of the environments across scales has to be taken into account. • NBaS require a transition from silo approaches to multidisciplinary frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change-induced stresses on coastal water resources include water use restrictions, saline intrusions, and permanently modifying or damaging regional resources. Groundwater in coastal regions is often the only freshwater resource available, so an in-depth understanding of the aquifer, and the aquifer's response to climate change, is essential for decision-makers. In this study, we focus on the coastal aquifer of Roussillon (southern France) by developing and investigating a steady-state groundwater flow model (MODFLOW 6) and calibrated with PEST++ on a Python interface (FloPy and PyEmu). Model input and boundary conditions are constrained by various scenarios of climate projections by 2080, with model results predicting the aquifer's response (and associated uncertainty) to these external forcings. Using simple assumptions of intrusion estimates, model results highlight both strong climatic and anthropogenic impacts on the water table. These include aquifer drawdowns reaching several meters locally, and the seawater interface advancing locally several hundred meters inland and rising by several meters. Intrusions of this magnitude risk endangering exploited water wells and their sustainability. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of properly characterizing the geology and its heterogeneity for understanding aquifers at risk because poor predictions may lead to inappropriate decisions, putting critical resources at risk, particularly in coastal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple reservoir operation is of paramount importance due to tradeoffs in water supply and their cost functions. Understanding this complexity is important for optimizing water supply and increasing synergies gained from the joint operation. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a conceptual framework for addressing the effects of climate change on water security under the operating rules of the multiple reservoir system in northern France. A dynamic programming approach (DP) was employed to find the cost–benefit analysis that best fit with the objectives of reservoir operation, while the space rule was applied to balance the available space in each reservoir of a parallel system. A finite-horizon optimal regulation was then adopted for determining daily reservoir storage based on probability-based rule curves. The results indicated that the predicted inflow during the drawdown–refill cycle period to the Marne and Pannecière reservoirs would be the largest and lowest, respectively. The proposed upper rule curves during high-flow conditions suggested that the release from Aube reservoir should be postponed from July to August until September. At 50- and 100-year return periods, quite a high release rate from Seine and Marne reservoirs was observed during the dry season. A decrease in future water supply from Pannecière reservoir was found during summer, while the withdrawal in November could cause excessive water in the Seine tributary and Paris City. Under low-flow conditions in all return periods, the proposed lower rule curves recommended that the reservoir storage should go below the current operating rule, with a clear difference in July (the largest in Marne and the smallest in Pannecière) and almost no difference in November. Moreover, the web-based support system IRMaRA was developed for revising operating rules of four main reservoirs located in the Seine River Basin. The novelty of this modeling framework would contribute to the practice of deriving optimal operating rules for a multi-reservoir system by the probability-based rule curve method. Based on the evaluation of the effects of applying the estimated reservoir storage capacity under different return periods, both less overflow and water shortage represented by different levels of quantity and severity can be expected compared to the existing target storage at specified control points. Finally, the obtained finding revealed that the application of dynamic programming for reservoir optimization would help in developing a robust operating policy for tackling the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to address environmental, social, global, and economic challenges. The SDGs were a continuation of the Millennium Development Goals and assumed a common vision for the year 2030. Efforts to achieve the SDGs must be carried out in an integrated manner, respecting the three pillars of sustainable development, which are economic, social, and environmental. This review analyses the viability of Sustainable Development Goal 17 (SDG 17), which aims to build global partnerships for development. It makes specific reference to multi-stakeholder collaboration between all sectors of society. While the first sixteen SDGs are dedicated to concrete actions, SDG 17 Partnerships for Development coordinates and facilitates the implementation of the other goals. SDG 17 promotes the "right way" of collaboration between different actors through the formation of multi-stakeholder partnerships, which are essential to foster sustainable development. Although SDG 17 has its multiple advantages, it also does have its limitations, such as the present absence of a lessons-learned repository to share and understand how multi-stakeholder partnerships can prove more effective in promoting the successful implementation of the rest of the SDGs, as well as that SDG 17 seems to be regarded as more appropriate to the achievement of the economic pillar of sustainability at the moment, rather than being applied more widely. In this review, we analyze two case studies located in the south-western part of France, from which one can observe the great number of stakeholders, some non-human, even inanimate, present even in relatively minor projects and how due consideration of the interests of all of them in a manner following due process (albeit lengthy) enables decisions to be reached correctly and approved projects implemented soundly. One of the projects was rejected and did not proceed, while the other was approved and is going ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rain-fed pastoral systems are tightly connected to meteorological conditions. It is, therefore, likely that climate change, including changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, precipitation and patterns of climate extremes, will greatly affect pastoral systems. However, exact impacts on the productivity and carbon dynamics of these systems are still poorly understood, particularly over longtime scales. The present study assesses the potential effects of future climatic conditions on productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of mowed and rotationally grazed grasslands in France. We used the CenW ecosystem model to simulate carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in response to changes in environmental drivers and management practices. We first evaluated model responses to individual changes in each key meteorological variable to get better insights into the role and importance of each individual variable. Then, we used 3 sets of meteorological variables corresponding to 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for long-term model runs from 1975 to 2100. Finally, we used the same three RCPs to analyze the responses of modelled grasslands to extreme climate events. We found that increasing temperature slightly increased grasslands productivities but strongly reduced SOC stocks. A reduction in precipitation led to reductions of biomass and milk production but increased SOC. Conversely, doubling CO2 concentration strongly increased biomass and milk production and marginally reduced SOC. These SOC trends were unexpected. They arose because both increasing precipitation and CO2 increased photosynthetic carbon gain, but they had an even greater effect on the proportion of biomass that could be grazed. The amount of carbon remaining on site and able to contribute to SOC formation was actually reduced under both higher precipitation and CO2. The simulations under the three RCPs indicated that grassland productivity was increased, but that required higher N fertilizer application rates and also led to substantial SOC losses. We thus conclude that, while milk productivity may continue at current rates under climate change, or even increase slightly, there could be some soil C losses over the 21st century. In addition, under the highest-emission scenario, the increasing importance of extreme climate conditions (heat waves and droughts) might render conditions at our site in some years as unsuitable for milk production. It highlights the importance of tailoring farming practices to achieve the dual goals of maintaining agricultural production while safeguarding soil C stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infection with the necrotrophic fungus Diplodia sapinea (Fr.) Fuckel is among the economically and ecologically most devastating diseases of conifers in the northern hemisphere and is accelerated by global climate change. This study aims to characterize the changes mediated by D. sapinea infection on its pine host (Pinus sylvestris L.) that lead to the death of its needles. For this purpose, we performed an indoor infection experiment and inoculated shoot tips of pine seedlings with virulent D. sapinea. The consequences for foliar traits, including the phytohormone profile, were characterized at both the metabolite and transcriptome level. Our results showed that D. sapinea infection strongly affected foliar levels of most phytohormones and impaired a multitude of other metabolic and structural foliar traits, such as reactive oxygen species scavenging. Transcriptome analysis revealed that these changes are partially mediated via modified gene expression by fungal exposure. Diplodia sapinea appears to overcome the defense reactions of its pine host by reprogramming gene expression and post-transcriptional controls that determine essential foliar metabolic traits such as the phytohormone profile, cell wall composition and antioxidative system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due To the effects of climate change, tourist locations such as glacial landscapes are increasingly becoming last-chance tourism (LCT) destinations. LCT is paradoxical: although visitors to such locations possess high environmental awareness, their travel generates greenhouse gas emissions that threaten these destinations. However, visiting LCT destinations and observing glacial landscapes threatened by climate change may positively affect pro-environmental behaviour. This article aims to explore how experiencing receding glaciers can influence intentions to adopt pro-environmental behaviour. A quantitative survey of 284 visitors to a major glacier tourism site in France (Montenvers-mer-de-Glace) was caried out to test the influence of landscape, emotions, satisfaction, and LCT-related motivations on intentions to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. The results show that landscapes perceived as symbolic of climate change, LCT motivations, and overall satisfaction positively influenced pro-environmental behaviour intentions. To further encourage such intentions, stakeholders should promote practices based on education and experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damage in grapevine and fruit trees in France, in regions where young leaves had already unfolded due to unusually warm temperatures in the preceding month (March 2021). We analysed with observations and 172 climate model simulations how human-induced climate change affected this event over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that, without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April or later in spring would have been even lower by 1.2 ∘ C (0.75 to 1.7 ∘ C). However, climate change also caused an earlier occurrence of bud burst that we characterized in this study by a growing degree day index value. This shift leaves young leaves exposed to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights, an effect that overcompensates the warming effect. Extreme cold temperatures occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are now 2 ∘ C colder (0.5 to 3.3 ∘ C) than in preindustrial conditions, according to observations. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change with each of the five climate model ensembles used here simulating a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of 0.41 ∘ C (0.22 to 0.60 ∘ C) since preindustrial conditions. The 2021 growing-period frost event has become 50 % more likely (10 %–110 %). Models accurately simulate the observed warming in extreme lowest spring temperatures but underestimate the observed trends in growing-period frost intensities, a fact that yet remains to be explained. Model ensembles all simulate a further intensification of yearly minimum temperatures occurring in the growing period for future decades and a significant probability increase for such events of about 30 % (20 %–40 %) in a climate with global warming of 2 ∘ C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, large-scale modelling tools are needed for anticipating the expected impacts of climate change on hydrosystems and for planning mitigation measures. We developed a spatially-distributed model for the MARTHE (Modélisation d'Aquifères avec un maillage Rectangulaire, Transport et HydrodynamiquE; Modelling Aquifers with Rectangular cells, Transport and Hydrodynamics) hydrogeological modelling computer code as a preliminary tool for France, and carried out a first evaluation over a 10-year period, comparing observed and modelled time series of groundwater levels and river flows. Then, prospective hydrological simulations were undertaken using five regionalized climate simulations. The evaluation results show varying performance depending upon the regions and variables considered, but they provide encouraging perspectives. Future hydrological projections anticipate increased recharge by +15% on average over France, accompanied by increases in wetter/drier groundwater extreme events in the north/south by the 2070–2099 period compared to the 1976–2005 reference period. Based on these results, the MARTHE model can be considered a promising template for the construction of a nation-wide hydrological model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars cite right-wing authoritarian and business-elite influences in their explanations of populist mobilization against climate reforms. The Yellow Vest movement in France, initially sparked by opposition to a carbon tax, defies the generalizations offered by scholars, the media, and politicians alike. This populist movement emerged from below rather than from elite sponsorship and was motivated by social justice concerns. Through in-depth interviews with 31 Yellow Vest activists as well as supplementary primary texts and data, I uncover how the activists frame carbon taxation and climate change within their political struggle. The findings are four-fold: 1) the Yellow Vests are concerned about global climate change and feel their anti-climate depictions in the media are rooted in a government strategy to divide and discredit the movement; 2) they view the government's taxing them in order to fight climate change as corrupt and unfair; 3) they argue that the carbon tax is additionally unjust due to their precarity, which has increased over several decades; 4) they want to fight climate change on their own terms and argue for more direct forms of democracy to equalize decision making. I conclude with a framework for understanding how and why popular movements oppose climate reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Related species often engage in abutting or overlapping contact zones with various strengths of interspecific competition. Biotic interactions such as these preclude the registration of the full profile of environmental variables that would describe the otherwise larger species ranges. Here, I advocate to forego full range species distribution modelling and instead focus on the ecography of the contact zone, for example with 'two-species distribution models' (TSDMs), in which presence data are contrasted against the background of environmental data. The newts Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus meet in the west of France. A countrywide TSDM suggests that the contact zone of the species is located at a climatic gradient, in line with their north-eastern vs. south-western ranges. The species are also ecologically segregated by elevation and forestation, which is in line with a documented movement of the contact zone caused by hedgerow removal in lowland areas. Hindcasts for the Holocene suggest that the species contact zone was positioned at either the same place as at present or more to the south, depending on the amount of forestation. A forecast under climate warming predicts a fast movement to the north, but this scenario is deemed unrealistic. One reason is that recent habitat loss compromises dispersal and range expansion. Other species pairs to which TSDMs have been applied are listed for comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological transition may represent both a catastrophe and a great opportunity for employment and work. Accordingly, the idea of a "triple dividend" is sometimes recalled: if properly carried out, the ecological transition could not only make it possible to deal with climate change and threats to biodiversity, but it will also lead to the creation of many useful jobs and make it possible to change the way work is organised. Although associations and unions have these issues in their sights, these remain for the moment insufficiently developed and equipped. In this article, I will first explore the diverse impact of ecological transition processes on employment (1), then move on to explore the actions of trade unions and associations in favour of a just transition (2) and finally discuss how ecological conversion can be an opportunity for new perspectives on changing work to emerge (3). I will particularly focus on the France case which, in turn, can be extended to other contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Viticulture and wine production are facing climate change. While it can be a challenge in some regions, it is an opportunity for others. The aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess climatic characteristics and potential for viticulture of new areas, through spatial analyses of data from temperature-based grapevine models (the Grapevine Flowering Veraison model -GFV and the Grapevine Sugar Ripeness model -GSR) during current and future periods. A deadline for veraison was set on the 1st of September for dry wine and on the 15th of September for sparkling wine. Different sugar levels were targeted for the production of different wine styles (170 g·L-1 for sparkling wine, 190 g·L-1 and 200 g·L-1 dry white and red wines, respectively) on the 15th of October. The methodology was applied over the region of Brittany (France) to assess the potential to produce different wine styles from 6 grapevine varieties ('Sauvignon blanc', 'Chardonnay', 'Chenin', 'Pinot noir', 'Cabernet franc' and 'Cabernet-Sauvignon'). Observed data from the Météo-France weather stations network and an 8-km gridded climate model data from the 2014 EUROCORDEX simulation set (CNRM-CM5/RCA4 climate model) were used over the past (1950-2020) and future periods (2031-2060 and 2071-2100) under two GHG emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Climatic conditions of this region seem to be increasingly suitable in the future depending on climate scenario, time period projections and targeted types of wine. The methodology can be applied to any emerging winegrowing region with the ability to adjust variety choices, time lines and sugar levels thresholds as desired to meet the needs of a specific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest dieback due to climate change has severe consequences for the sensitive environments of mountain forests which provide important ecosystem services for local communities, lowlands inhabitants, and visitors. However, this phenomenon is sometimes hard to identify for the lay public as it can manifest as a slow-onset phenomenon with rather inconspicuous signals or as large-scale disturbances like in the case of bark beetle outbreaks. The aim of this contribution is to analyze whether lay people perceive climate change-induced forest dieback in the landscape or not and what kind of damage they identify. To address this issue, we carried out a cross-comparison case-study in two mountain areas in France and Germany. To analyze the data, we introduce an innovative variable clustering approach to identify different groups of respondents based on their perception of climate change and forest dieback. Five groups of respondents—illustrating different degrees of worry—were identified in each case study: the non-alarmist, the carefree, the least informed, the worried, and the alarmist. These results show that both phenomena are not perceived as distant but as happening here and now; and that their perceptions are influenced by local contexts and personal experiences. We finally show that public perception of forest dieback has influenced the agenda setting on the enactment of new forest policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early in the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. Many studies have demonstrated that D. pictus competes against native species with similar breeding strategies, pointing out abiotic conditions as the main driver tipping the balance in favor of one or another species. This study aims to assess the impact of the spread of D. pictus on native Iberian Discoglossus and other native species, analyzing the potential roles of long-distance dispersal and long-term climate warming in the Iberian Peninsula. The study area covers the western Mediterranean region, including all Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa, Sicily, the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and targeted species in the Iberian Peninsula, including endemic Discoglossus species. Future projections of climatic change suggest that climatic suitability will increase for all species, both inside and outside the Natura 2000 network, with the only exception being a moderate and widespread decrease for Pelodytes punctatus. However, these positive trends are reversed within Natura 2000 sites where most species are explicitly targeted, jeopardizing the effectiveness of protected areas in a long-distance dispersal scenario. Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of D. pictus for sensitive native species, we examined the impact of long-term climate warming on the basis of niche overlap analysis, taking into account abiotic factors. The study area covered the distribution ranges of all genus Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa (659,784 km2), Sicily (27,711 km2), the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France (699,546 km2). Niche overlap was measured from species environmental spaces extracted via PCA, including climate and relief environmental variables. Current and future climatic suitability for each species was assessed in an ensemble-forecasting framework of species distribution models, built using contemporary species data and climate predictors and projected to 2070′s climatic conditions. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and native and endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. In this context, all species will experience an increase in climatic suitability over the next decades, with the only exception being Pelodytes punctatus, which could be negatively affected by synergies between global warming and cohabitation with D. pictus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The French pavilion at the 2004 Venice Biennale of Architecture took up the theme of sustainable design through a "prospective game" that challenged participating architects to imagine an urban neighborhood's transformation in response to economic, social, and environmental constraints over the following 30 years. The exhibition paradoxically appeared to proclaim French sustainable know-how at a time when French architects viewed the profession as lagging behind their European neighbors in terms of ecological approaches. By framing sustainability as avant-garde, experimental design, the pavilion reconciled "French" and "sustainable" architecture. Examining this exhibit and its impact contributes to an understanding of French self-fashioning of national identity around culture. Moreover, this case demonstrates how cultural elements of identity influence responses to global challenges such as climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater levels (GWLs) very often fluctuate over a wide range of timescales (intra-annual, annual, multi-annual, and decadal). In many instances, aquifers act as low-pass filters, dampening the high-frequency variability and amplifying low-frequency variations (from multi-annual to decadal timescales) which basically originate from large-scale climate variability. Within the aim of better understanding and ultimately anticipating groundwater droughts and floods, it appears crucial to evaluate whether (and how much) the very high or very low GWLs are resulting from such low-frequency variability (LFV), which was the main objective of the study presented here. As an example, we focused on exceedance and non-exceedance of the 80 % and 20 % GWL percentiles respectively, in the Paris Basin aquifers over the 1976–2019 period. GWL time series were extracted from a database consisting of relatively undisturbed GWL time series regarding anthropogenic influence (water abstraction by either continuous or periodic pumping) over metropolitan France. Based on this dataset, our approach consisted in exploring the effect of GWL low-frequency components on threshold exceedance and non-exceedance by successively filtering out low-frequency components of GWL signals using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). Multi-annual (∼7 -year) and decadal (∼17 -year) variabilities were found to be the predominant LFVs in GWL signals, in accordance with previous studies in the northern France area. By filtering out these components (either independently or jointly), it is possible to (i) examine the proportion of high-level (HL) and low-level (LL) occurrences generated by these variabilities and (ii) estimate the contribution of each of these variabilities in explaining the occurrence of major historical events associated with well-recognized societal impacts. A typology of GWL variations in Paris Basin aquifers was first determined by quantifying the variance distribution across timescales. Four GWL variation types could be found according to the predominance of annual, multi-annual, or/and decadal variabilities in these signals: decadal-dominant (type iD), multi-annual- and decadal-dominant (type iMD), annual-dominant (type cA), and annual- and multi-annual-dominant (type cAM). We observed a clear dependence of high and low GWL on LFV for aquifers exhibiting these four GWL variation types. In addition, the respective contribution of multi-annual and decadal variabilities in the threshold exceedance varied according to the event. In numerous aquifers, it also appeared that the sensitivity to LFV was higher for LLs than HLs. A similar analysis was conducted on the only available long-term GWL time series which covered a hundred years. This allowed us to highlight the potential influence of multidecadal variability on HLs and LLs too. This study underlined the key role of LFV in the occurrence of HLs and LLs. Since LFV originates from large-scale stochastic climate variability as demonstrated in many previous studies in the Paris Basin or nearby regions, our results point out that (i) poor representation of LFV in general circulation model (GCM) outputs used afterwards for developing hydrological projections can result in strong uncertainty in the assessment of future groundwater extremes (GWEs), and (ii) potential changes in the amplitude of LFV, be they natural or induced by global climate change, may lead to substantial changes in the occurrence and severity of GWEs for the next decades. Finally, this study also stresses the fact that due to the stochastic nature of LFV, no deterministic prediction of future GWEs for the mid- or long-term horizons can be achieved, even though LFV may look periodic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ever larger areas of the world, climate change is increasing water demand while shrinking water supplies. As a result, many efforts are underway to define whether any given water project decreases or further increases water users' vulnerability to climate change, especially in the agricultural sector. A number of challenges in making these assessments have been routinely discussed, including a lack of yardsticks, varying local circumstances, and the role of subjective judgment. However, their common assumption is that maladaptation constitutes, at least in theory, a phenomenon that can ultimately be fully objectified and agreed upon through scientific data. By contrast, our qualitative comparative analysis advances a non-positivist conception of maladaptation. By comparing three water projects aiming at climate change adaptation in South Africa (Western Cape), Spain (Andalusia) and France (Occitanie), we argue that qualifying (mal)adaptation is an inescapably political process as much as a scientific endeavour. As a consequence, we advocate for putting more scholarly emphasis on the governance of adaptation projects, especially the capacity of governance arrangements to produce legitimate compromises between multiple policy domains and actors; to enhance higher level conflict management when necessary; and to ensure regular policy evaluation with an effective bearing on subsequent policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on CMIP6 climate simulations, updated global and regional observations, and recently introduced statistical methods, we provide an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. Following the IPCC AR6 and recent global-scale studies, we combine model results with observations to constrain climate change at the regional scale. Over mainland France, the forced warming in 2020 with respect to 1900–1930 is assessed to be 1.66 [1.41 to 1.90] ∘ C, i.e., in the upper range of the CMIP6 estimates, and is almost entirely human-induced. A refined view of the seasonality of this past warming is provided through updated daily climate normals. Projected warming in response to an intermediate emission scenario is assessed to be 3.8 ∘ C (2.9 to 4.8 ∘ C) in 2100 and rises up to 6.7 [5.2 to 8.2] ∘ C in a very high emission scenario, i.e., substantially higher than in previous ensembles of global and regional simulations. Winter warming and summer warming are expected to be about 15 % lower than and 30 % higher than the annual mean warming, respectively, for all scenarios and time periods. This work highlights the importance of combining various lines of evidence, including model and observed data, to deliver the most reliable climate information. This refined regional assessment can feed adaptation planning for a range of activities and provides additional rationale for urgent climate action. Code is made available to facilitate replication over other areas or political entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nineteenth-century France was characterised by theoretical and fictional speculations about planet management, climate change, and anthropogenic power. In this context, Verne's novels strike us as more contemporary than ever. The purpose of his Sans dessus dessous (1889) is a scalar critique that highlights the catastrophic potential of engineering Earth: When terraforming is premised upon extraplanetary sight, it becomes an objectifying instance of 'anthropoforming' that mechanically forms Earth in the image of mankind. Reading Sans dessus dessous today evaluates the historical specificity of terraforming while illuminating how ecological crises become the opportune moment for privatising the engineering of Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Bird and tree species distributions will shift along with future climatic conditions through direct effects related to species responses to bioclimatic variables. In addition, tree species composition changes should indirectly drive changes in forest bird habitats. Here, we predicted the effects of climate changes on the amount of reachable habitat for forest birds and teased apart the role of the indirect effects. Location: France. Methods: We projected tree and bird species distributions (2020 and 2050) using generalized additive models which accounted for climatic conditions at a large scale (France) and local environmental conditions at regional scale. The projections combined two scenarios of climate changes (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) and two scenarios of forest management (increase in either deciduous or coniferous stands). We modelled the amount of reachable habitat with landscape graphs and the equivalent connectivity index (EC) for five birds associated to the main forest types of the study area. To differentiate the sources of EC change between 2020 and 2050, we compared two future landscape graphs including only the indirect effect, or the direct and indirect effects of climate changes. Results: For birds with low and intermediate thermal maxima, climate‐based distributions were nearly stable over time (absence of direct effects), EC change was only attributed to indirect effects. In contrast, for bird species with high thermal maximum, EC change was mostly driven by direct effects (more favourable climatic conditions) and little by indirect effects. Main conclusions: Using an innovative modelling framework that bind species distribution and connectivity models with climate and land use changes in forest, we showed that EC dynamics could be completely due to climate‐driven changes in tree species composition. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the indirect effects of climate changes, especially in forests where major shifts in tree species composition are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments into wind power generation may be hampered by the uncertainty of future revenues caused by the natural variability of the wind resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the regulatory risks. We quantify the uncertainty of the economic value of wind farms in France, Germany, and Denmark, and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to ensure the profitability of wind farms under present and future climates. To this end, we built a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices. Our study reveals that support mechanisms are needed for current market conditions and the current climate, as well as under future climate conditions according to several scenarios for climate change and energy transition. The cost of support mechanisms during a 15-year period is evaluated to EUR 3.8 to EUR 11.5 billion per year in France, from EUR 15.5 to EUR 26.5 billion per year in Germany, and from EUR 1.2 to EUR 3.3 billion per year in Denmark, depending on the scenario considered and the level of penetration of wind energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]