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This paper examines how climate change and the environment have been incorporated into Spain's security documents and policymaking. We have examined forty-plus documents issued by Spain's National Security Department to identify the evolution of the climate and environmental discourse. A keyword filter helped to single out the eleven most environmentally relevant documents, which have been qualitatively analysed to better understand the context in which environmental language is used. In our work we identify how both common practices of security analysts and policy-makers different level policies have been strongly influenced by environmental knowledge, and, therefore, incorporated new considerations into security policies as well as. Our findings suggest that climate is not the only challenge incorporated into security documents. Other environmental issues such as desertification, access to water, energy transition or loss of biodiversity are also included, which implies that they are part of a broader concept of national security more in line with the new challenges of the twentity-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Iberian Peninsula is a climate change hotspot, where the temperature is increasing faster than the global annual mean surface temperature, with the largest reduction of precipitation. Consequently, freshwater availability is expected to decrease substantially. In this context, freshwater systems are especially vulnerable in terms of meeting the water demands and ecosystem requirements we know today. In this paper, we present an extension of the eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS) method to explore trade-offs in agricultural and ecologic metrics at the catchment scale across a range of unknown future hydrological and climate states. The extended EEDS method evaluates current water resource management rules focusing on agricultural and ecologic objectives, identifies climate hazards that make the system fail and assesses climate risk in three time horizons for the design of adaptation measures. The case study is the Serpis River basin, Spain, where 72% of available water is used for agricultural purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to identify whether the interdependencies between climate action and social policies in the urban context are visible and, if so, in what areas and through what framings. Using a content analysis approach, it compares framings of the news on social policies in Barcelona over the course of a year. The results show that climate action is constructed discursively as an isolated issue, with its own logics and complexities, and with few references to other social policy areas. It also reveals that references to climate change in other social policy areas do not operate as framings. The paper claims that discursive strategies that separate climate change policy from other social policy areas can invisibilise the connections that operate between these policies, links that are key for pursuing the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, especially in the urban context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the future patterns of precipitation behaviour in unique geographical areas, largely determined by their orography and local scale, can help lay the foundations for a new precipitation model for the design of the city's main urban drainage infrastructures (intensity-duration-frequency curves, mathematical functions that relate precipitation intensity to duration and frequency of occurrence, hereafter IDF, for the short-, medium- and long-term future). This will definitely contribute to the improvement of the city's resilience to the effects of climate change. In this paper, the projections of a subset of climate change models from both the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; with a total of 5 simulations) and Euro-CORDEX (for a set of 51 simulations) have been adjusted to the municipality of Alicante (in the southeast of Spain), using the Climadjust tool (climadjust.com). These projections contain different climatic variables. The rainfall variable has been used to derive a new framework of boundary conditions to help design more resilient infrastructure for torrential rainfall events and urban flooding. The projections corresponding to three climate change scenarios (CMIP6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5; and Euro-CORDEX: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are considered with daily resolution and, by applying statistical techniques of temporal disaggregation (by means of a cascade model), hourly (and sub-hourly, reaching 30-min resolution) disaggregation. The results at hourly and 30-min resolutions are used to construct IDF curves of future climate, grouped into short-term (years 2015 to 2040), medium-term (years 2041 to 2070) and long-term (years 2071 to 2100) sub-scenarios. The selected future climate IDFs for an adverse climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) show increases in rainfall intensities, higher the shorter the rainfall duration, for return periods greater than or equal to 25 years, whereas for return periods under 25 years the current IDFs can be representative of future scenarios. Current calculations and future projection of the torrentiality index for severe climate change scenarios, as well as the climate change factors, show an increase in the frequency and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall. This fact corroborates the hypotheses of greater general torrentiality in future rainfall in this specific area of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long‐known, widely documented inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature ("temperature‐size rule") has recently led to predictions of body size decline following current climatic warming ("size shrinking effect"). For keystone pollinators such as wild bees, body shrinking in response to warming can have significant effects on pollination processes but there is still little direct evidence of the phenomenon because adequate tests require controlling for confounding factors linked to climate change (e.g., habitat change). This paper assesses the shrinking effect in a community of solitary bees from well‐preserved habitats in the core of a large nature reserve experiencing climatic warming without disturbances or habitat changes. Long‐term variation in mean body mass was evaluated using data from 1704 individual bees (137 species, 27 genera, 6 families) sampled over 1990–2023. Climate warmed at a fast rate during this period, annual mean of daily maximum temperature increasing 0.069°C/year on average during 2000–2020. Changes in bee body mass verified expectations from the size shrinking effect. The mean individual body mass of the community of solitary bees declined significantly, irrespective of whether the analysis referred to the full species sample or only to the subset of species that were sampled in both the old (1990–1997) and recent (2022–2023) periods. On average, body mass declined ~0.7%·year−1, or an estimated average cumulative reduction of ~20 mg per individual bee from 1990 to 2023. Proportional size reduction was greatest among large‐bodied species, ranging from around −0.6%·year−1 for the smallest species to −0.9%·year−1 for the largest ones. Declining rate was steeper for cavity‐nesting than ground‐nesting species. The pollination and mating systems of bee‐pollinated plants in the study region are probably undergoing significant alterations as a consequence of supra‐annual decline in bee body mass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities play increasingly recognised roles in global climate change responses: as change laboratories, spaces of opportunity, and as administrative and economic hubs that concentrate human and financial resources and needs. They host high climate mitigation potential and acute climate adaptation vulnerabilities. Scholarship flags conventional urban planning approaches to limit global warming to 1.5°C as inadequate. Yet urban sustainability transitions literature features few examples of functioning alternative governance and planning paradigms. This paper assesses one such approach, new municipalism: social movements centred on a democratic transformation of the local economy and state. We combine attention to urban sustainability transitions and new municipalism research to interrogate whether and how the latter can facilitate the provision of leadership and institutional arrangements that enable urban transformation to sustainability. Our desk study considers two prominent examples of new municipalism in Spain, where Barcelona en Comú and Ahora Madrid arose as anti-austerity movements to combat neoliberal urban agendas during the 2010s. We find that the praxis of collective decision-making associated with new municipalism does offer inclusive, innovative policy pathways and the potential to implement experimental knowledge and learning in complex real-world settings at the urban scale. We argue, however, that powerful neoliberal mechanisms impose structural constraints on the very push for deep political change that new municipalist movements embody. By linking transformative climate governance needs with new municipalism movements and wider political economic structuring forces, we explicate the tensions and contested dynamics of institutionalising progressive social movements in the multi-scalar governance of urban sustainability transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change represents an important cause of subsidence, especially in coastal cities affected by changes in surface water level and water table. This paper presents a complementary study of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) for the early detection of subsidence and sinkhole phenomena. The methodology was applied to a coastal urban area in Galicia, northwest Spain (humid region), showing apparent signs of subsidence and building settlement during the last two years. Two different InSAR methods are compared for the period from June 2021 to March 2022: PSI (Persistent Scatterer Interferometry) and SBAS (Small Baseline Subsets), and the average deformation velocities obtained resulted in −3.0 mm/yr and −4.1 mm/yr, respectively. Additional GPR data were collected in January 2022 to validate the InSAR results, which detected subsidence in agreement with the persistent scatters obtained from the PSI method. This is crucial information to plan preventive maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdisciplinary research is gathering increasing support from sustainability scholars, however, there is little dialogue between scholarship on interdisciplinarity and interdisciplinary environmental science education. The aim of this paper is to take stock of the insights of studies of interdisciplinary research to inform environmental research and education. We take as our case study a research centre in Spain, which created an interdisciplinary PhD programme on climate change. The analysis is based on 18 interviews with PhD students and supervisors. We focus on: (i) the need to train experts while redefining expertise outside of disciplinary boundaries; (ii) the practical and institutional challenges of interdisciplinarity in the context of PhD training; and (iii) the challenges of assessing the quality across disciplines. Our results show that conflicts with institutional requirements lead to a tendency to abandon interdisciplinary aspects and to the training of experts narrowly centred on the specific problem they analyse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) is responsible for the elaboration of downscaled climate projections over Spain to feed the Second National Plan of Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC‐2) and this is the last of three papers aimed to evaluate and intercompare five empirical/statistical downscaling (ESD) methods developed at AEMET: (a) Analog, (b) Regression, (c) Artificial Neural Networks, (d) Support Vector Machines and (e) Kernel Ridge Regression, in order to decide which methods and under what configurations are more suitable for that purpose. Following the framework established by the EU COST Action VALUE, in this experiment we test the transferability of these methods to future climate conditions with the use of regional climate models (RCMs) as pseudo observations. We evaluate the marginal aspects of the distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures and daily accumulated precipitation, over mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, analysed by season. For maximum/minimum temperatures all methods display certain transferability issues, being remarkable for Support Vector Machines and Kernel Ridge Regression. For precipitation all methods appear to suffer from transferability difficulties as well, although conclusions are not as clear as for temperature, probably due to the fact that precipitation does not present such a marked signal of change. This study has revealed how an analysis over a historical period is not enough to fully evaluate ESD methods, so we propose that some type of analysis of transferability should be added in a standard procedure of a complete evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generating and disseminating specific climate change knowledge is critical for sub-national policymakers. It allows them to address regional particularities, balance mitigation and adaptation policies, and deliver transparent governance. In this paper, we show how knowledge maps can be used in this endeavour. We examined a case study in Galicia, a region in Spain with a recently approved climate change strategy, where physical, geographic and socio-economic features shape region-specific scientific knowledge. The practical methodology used in this study can be generalized to aid other sub-national governments in adapting their local actions to the general policy frameworks designed by national and international initiatives. Therefore, our work illustrates how sub-national policymakers and researchers can collaborate to identify and prioritize key knowledge areas to face the regional challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, our work can uncover imbalances in the body of knowledge on mitigation and adaptation that could lead to biases in policymaking. Finally, we show how a knowledge map can guide policymakers in allocating public resources to support research in a meaningful and impactful way, depending on the demand for the research and the challenges stemming from climate change. Key policy insights Sub-national policymakers often lack the availability of specific and useful knowledge on climate change and its consequences. A widely accepted climate change knowledge framework is necessary because knowledge structure in scientific circles differs greatly from its conception in the political arena. The quality of sub-national governance influences the collaboration between policymakers and researchers and the efficiency of the knowledge system in targeting climate change challenges specifically linked to the region at stake. A knowledge mapping process, such as the one elaborated here can usefully engage decision-makers, researchers, and other stakeholders to advance evidence-based policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an innovative framework is introduced for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures, with a primary emphasis on modeling future climate conditions. The framework encompasses several key components: the development of a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis; a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy; and the integration of a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structure sites. These advancements are designed to effectively manage multiple climate scenarios and models within the context of high uncertainty. The methodology is applied and validated for a coastal structure located on the Mediterranean coast in Spain. Focusing on compound wave and sea-level events, the projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme conditions, exacerbating coastal impacts such as wave overtopping. For instance, the present-day 500-year coastal flooding level would be associated with a return period of 50 years by mid-century under a stabilization scenario and would be further reduced to 25 years under a high-emission global warming scenario, resulting in important consequences for structure performance if no adaptation is implemented. • Develops a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures. • It develops a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis. • It encompasses a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy. • It integrates a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structures sites. • It has been applied and validated for a coastal structure in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has intensified the effects of habitat fragmentation in many ecosystems, particularly exacerbated in riparian habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify keystone connectivity spots to ensure long-term conservation and sustainable management of riparian systems as they play a crucial role for landscape connectivity. This paper aims to identify critical areas for connectivity under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 and to group these critical areas by similar connectivity in keystone spots for sustainable management. A set of analyses comprising climate analysis, drainage network analysis, configuration of potential riparian habitats, riparian habitat connectivity, data clustering, and statistical analysis within a Spanish river basin (NW Spain) were applied. The node and link connectivity would be reduced under the two climate change scenarios (≈2.5 % and 4.4 % reduction, respectively), intensifying riparian habitat fragmentation. Furthermore, 51 different clusters (critical areas) were obtained and classified in five classes (keystone spots) with similar connectivity across the different scenarios of climate change. Each keystone spot obtained by hierarchical classification was associated with one or more climate scenarios. One of these keystone spots was especially susceptible to the worst climate change scenario. Key riparian connectivity spots will be crucial for the management and restoration of highly threatened riparian systems and to ensure long-term biodiversity conservation. • Connectivity importance was reduced under different climate change scenarios. • Critical area detection for connectivity conservation is threatened by climate change. • Critical areas were classified with similar connectivity keystone spots against climate change. • Keystone spots with high PC index will be priority for conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparative studies of urban adaptation have evaluated the progress, means and scope of adaptation planning. Practice on the ground shows that the local politics of climate adaptation advance through various strategies to align different interests and spheres of action or disrupt mainstream practices, which translates into a wide range of interventions. This paper focuses on understanding the dynamics and tools that enable the institutionalisation of adaptation practices in local governments, i.e. the means through which adaptation practices, beyond plans and policies, are embedded in the routines of urban governance. It presents a framework to analyse the institutionalisation of adaptation that maps stages and tools with the potential to deliver adaptation in urban areas. Adaptation is framed as a learning process involving overlapping phases of recognition (of needs, capacities and actors), groundwork (knowledge generation) and action on the ground (change). The framework compares three Spanish local government initiatives (Bilbao, Barcelona and Madrid). The analysis shows that adaptation can be effectively incorporated into standard rules, norms and practices using combinations of tools and spatial and temporal scales. The coupled stages of recognition, groundwork and action highlight the importance of long-term learning processes to engage with the temporal dimensions of adaptation governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine renewable energies can play a key role by reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and, therefore, mitigating climate change. Among them, it is expected that wave energy will experience rapid growth in the upcoming decades. Thus, it is important to know how wave climate will change and how suitable the wave energy converters (WECs) will be to the new wave conditions. This paper aims to evaluate the capability of four different WECs—a WaveRoller type device (WRTD), Atargis, AquaBuoy and RM5—to extract wave energy on the Northwest coast of Spain (NWCS). The analysis was performed using the high-resolution wave data obtained from the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model over the near future winters (2026–2045). The energy output (P E), the power load factor (ε), the normalized capture width (NC w) and the operational time (OT) were analyzed. According to these parameters, among the devices that work for intermediate-deep waters, Atargis would be the best option (P E = 1400 ± 56 kW, ε = 55.4 ± 2.2%, NC w = 35.5 ± 4.1% and OT = 84.5 ± 3.3%). The WRTD would also be a good option for shallow nearshore areas with P E = 427 ± 248 kW, ε = 12.8 ± 7.4%, NC w = 48.9 ± 9.6% and OT = 88.7 ± 18.9%. A combination of Atargis and WRTDs is proposed to make up the future wave energy farms on the NWCS. • Dynamical downscaling using SWAN to simulate near-shore wave conditions. • Wave energy converters suitability is analyzed in the context of climate change. • Atargis is the most suitable device to future sea conditions in intermediate waters. • WaveRoller type devices can constitute future wave farms for shallow waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to increase the number of days with meteorological conditions conducive to uncontrollable wildfires. Thus, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of wildfire-prone regions to minimize the adverse impacts of these wildfires by creating resilient landscapes. In this paper we develop a participatory multi-criteria evaluation to identify and map landscape values and prioritize areas according to these values in the Montseny Biophere Reserve (Catalonia, NE Spain). Then, we draft a wildfire management strategy to protect the areas that have been prioritized through selected fuel reduction sectors that would reduce wildfire intensity. Finally, we emphasize the added value of a participatory multi-criteria evaluation in the adaptation to and management of expected megafires. We find that the integration of landscape values through participatory multi-criteria evaluation has the potential to alter wildfire management strategies by adding fuel reduction sectors and changing their implementation order. However, the implementation of the planned fuel reduction treatments faces socioeconomic and institutional barriers that call for a deeper engagement with transdisciplinary project design and transformative science. • A participatory multi-criteria evaluation approach is applied to develop a fire management strategy. • The prioritized areas to protect against wildfires are those containing a great number and diversity of landscape values. • The fire management strategy is based on spatially targeted fuel reduction treatments. • The outcome of the evaluation determines where and in which order fuel reduction treatments should be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well-established eco-hydrological model that has been extensively applied to watersheds across the globe. This work reviews over two decades (2002–2022) of SWAT studies conducted on Mediterranean watersheds. A total of 260 articles have been identified since the earliest documented use of the model in a Mediterranean catchment back in 2002; of which 62% were carried out in Greece, Italy, or Spain. SWAT applications increased significantly in recent years since 86% of the reviewed papers were published in the past decade. A major objective for most of the reviewed works was to check the applicability of SWAT to specific watersheds. A great number of publications included procedures of calibration and validation and reported performance results. SWAT applications in the Mediterranean region mainly cover water resources quantity and quality assessment and hydrologic and environmental impacts evaluation of land use and climate changes. Nevertheless, a tendency towards a multi-purpose use of SWAT is revealed. The numerous examples of SWAT combined with other tools and techniques outline the model's flexibility. Several studies performed constructive comparisons between Mediterranean watersheds' responses or compared SWAT to other models or methods. The effects of inputs on SWAT outputs and innovative model modifications and improvements were also the focus of some of the surveyed articles. However, a significant number of studies reported difficulties regarding data availability, as these are either scarce, have poor resolution or are not freely available. Therefore, it is highly recommended to identify and develop accurate model inputs and testing data to optimize the SWAT performance. [Display omitted] • SWAT review on Mediterranean hydro-climatic studies. • Lack of SWAT assessment on Mediterranean catchments. • A comparison of data from different Mediterranean basins. • Enhancing data availability for SWAT applications. • Developing a comprehensive knowledge of Mediterranean watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wine is the main economic resource in the 'Area of Jerez', located in the south of Spain. It is one of the most important wine tourism destinations in the world. However, its sustainable production process, so strongly influenced by climatic conditions, can be clearly affected by the phenomenon of global warming. The ageing process of "Sherry wine" takes place in buildings known as 'Cathedral warehouses', an example of Nearly-Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs). For centuries, they have been used to provide specific ecological conditions for biological ageing without any type of mechanical heating/cooling system. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on this production model. For this, the annual thermal behavior of a representative winery was monitored during several years. The first energy simulation model of this type of buildings was developed and validated (daily R2 = 99%; hourly R2 = 97%). Finally, the model was simulated by modifying the outdoor climatic conditions (9 years training data sets) for a climate change scenario, applying the 'morphing' method for the transformation of the weather data. The results show that, by the middle of this century, the average outdoor temperature will increase by 2.3 °C (in summer up to 3.6 °C). As a consequence, the temperature in the ageing zone would exceed the comfort limit for 19% of the year, (up to 34% in hot years). For 2080, the prediction is even worse (average value of 27%). As a result, the microorganisms responsible for this unique process could not maintain their activity. This fact will force the sector to face a harsh reconversion through the adoption of new mechanisms and strategies, which endangers the economic sustainability of an entire region dedicated to this practice. Beyond the specific case, the work highlights the need to evaluate the future behavior of NZEBs through simulation. [Display omitted] • Assess the impact of climate change in a Near Zero Energy Building. • "Cathedral warehouses" will lose their usefulness by the middle of this century. • Comfort limits will be exceeded 19% of the year, interrupting biological ageing. • The economic sustainability of an entire region would be endangered. • The need to evaluate the future behavior of Near Zero Energy Building is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation in and around estuaries, to ensure the future resilience of both the natural environment and the communities that are located alongside is an increasingly pressing need. As part of an adaptation planning program for the Basque estuaries (northern Spain, south-eastern Bay of Biscay), a modelling system to simulate the morphological response of the Oka estuary to climate change has been developed. Existing knowledge was used as the basis to frame this pilot modelling examining both the short-term change (storm, seasonal, annual) and the longer-term changes (decades to eons). In this paper, we focus on the long-term response and consideration of the output from the process model is limited to the data that was extracted to help parameterize the long-term model. The latter was then used to examine the response of the estuary to the past changes over a historical time scale, where observations from foraminiferal analysis and saltmarsh response were used to establish the predictive validity of the model. Forcing the model with a linear rate of sea level rise representative of the 20th century, the estuary keeps pace with sea level rise in agreement with the observations. An 18.6-year periodic variability was identified over the saltmarshes, by including the effect of the nodal tide, with the last deposition maximum occurring in 2020. The effect of the opening of a saltmarsh that was drained at the beginning of the 18th century was investigated using a simplified schematization and showed sedimentation rates of up to one order of magnitude larger than in natural marsh, in general agreement with the rates obtained in previous studies. To predict the future response of the estuary, simulations with an exponential sea level rise were performed using scenarios obtained from the latest IPCC projections. The estuary fails to keep pace with sea level rise in any of the scenarios considered. The attendant increase in the hydroperiod over the saltmarshes is also likely impact to saltmarsh species productivity and distribution. Despite the simplifications inherent to the model, and the simplifications made in the representation of the estuary and forcing conditions, the methods presented here provide additional insights into long-term behaviour that complement information obtained from more detailed, but short-term, process models. The combined modelling approach allows adaptation measures to climate change to be considered over longer timescales. • Adaptation to climate change is a problem faced by estuaries around the world. • An approach to study adaptation options for the Basque coast (Spain) is proposed. • With a linear rate of sea level rise, the Oka estuary keeps pace with sea level rise. • The Oka estuary fails to keep pace with future projections of sea level rise. • Saltmarsh enclosure and re-opening change the morphological response of the estuary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the feasibility and robustness of an index-based insurance scheme against hydrological droughts under climate change. To this end, we develop a grand ensemble that samples both modeling and scenario uncertainty in the estimation of the insurance risk premium, so to reveal potential unfavorable surprises and minimize regret in the design of the proposed insurance scheme. The grand ensemble combines four microeconomic models and seven GAMLSS models, which are run for three alternative climate change scenarios: stationary climate/no climate change, RCP 2.6, and RCP 8.5. Methods are illustrated with an application to the Cega River Sub-basin (CRS) in central Spain. Results indicate that for a conventional deductible of 30%, the proposed index-based insurance scheme would be actuarially feasible and affordable under all models for the stationary climate scenario (i.e., robust). For climate change scenarios RCP 2.6 and 8.5 and a 30% deductible, the suggested index-based insurance would be actuarially feasible under most models, albeit some outliers point towards potential unfavorable surprises. Lower deductibles decrease feasibility, particularly for deductibles <10%. • For a deductible of 30% and stationary climate, the proposed index-based insurance is actuarially feasible under all models. • Under climate change (RCPs 2.6, 8.5), the insurance is feasible for all deductibles and the median model (except PMAUP WGP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020–2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5. • We simulate forest, climate, and wildfire dynamics under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. • We forecast wildfire hazard in terms of crown fire potential and rate of spread. • Current management practices will not be able to surmount the increased hazard. • Management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pleistocene fluvial incision acceleration resulting in narrow and deeply entrenched valleys has been widely described and is generally attributed to uplift rate increase or greater climatic severity. In this paper, the long-term downcutting pattern of the Upper Ebro River and driving mechanisms are assessed, and we reconstruct the valley incision recorded by an outstanding sequence of 22 river terraces. Dating of 8 fluvial levels by means of the ESR, TCN, and OSL techniques, spanning the last 1.2 Ma, reveals a long-term incision deceleration pattern. The estimated age-incision model indicates a decrease in the incision rates, showing a long-term deceleration during the final Early Pleistocene (from 0.42 to 0.18 m/ka), and a tendency towards a steady state or base level stabilization from the Middle Pleistocene (0.15–0.03 m/ka) to the Late Pleistocene (0.03 m/ka). This incision pattern does not support climate change as a long-term incision-acceleration driver by itself, demonstrating the need for base level lowering effects to have operated. Upper Ebro deceleration incision is explained by the headward attenuation of the incision wave induced by the opening of the Ebro Cenozoic Basin in a geodynamic context characterized by an absence of significant uplift over the last million years. This trend could have changed the aggressor-victim roles of the rivers involved in fluvial captures at the drainage divide. The documented incision deceleration pattern differs from that reported for other valleys in the Iberian Peninsula, suggesting that the degree of maturity of the fluvial systems depends on their relative position with respect to the capture point, in addition to tectonic and lithostructural factors. In the Late Pleistocene-Holocene, a short-lived incision rate increase is recorded, corresponding to the last terrace dissection phase, during the transition from the last glacial MIS 2 to the interglacial MIS 1. • Incision acceleration is widely reported during Pleistocene valley entrenchment. • However, the Upper Ebro valley contains a complex sequence of fluvial terraces • which were dated within the last 1.2 Ma using ESR, TCN and OSL techniques • and indicate an incision deceleration pattern. • This suggests that the river incision is tending to a steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The specific contribution of GUAs to the SDGs has been analysed. • Green urban areas contribute directly to the achievement of SDG11, SDG15 and SDG13. • Equity in sustainable development has been assessed at a sub-neighbourhood level. • Equity requires an adequate location, size, quantity and quality of GUA. The Agenda for Sustainable Development 2030 of United Nations is made up of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that humanity will have to meet by 2030. In achieving the SDGs, green urban areas (GUA) play a fundamental role at the local level as they provide recreational and bioclimatic regulatory functions and act as a carbon sink, as well. Specifically, the GUAs contribute directly to three SDGs: SDG 11 Sustainable cities and communities, SDG 13 Climate Action and SDG 15 Life on land. This paper evaluates direct contribution of GUA to this SDGs with high spatial resolution in the case study of the city of Valencia (Spain). The evaluation carried out has made it possible to make a diagnosis of the quantity and accessibility of GUA at sub-neighbourhood level. The results for SDG 11 show that only 9.23% of the population do not have desirable access to GUA and 2.73% live in areas without easy walking distance access to GUA. On the other hand, the evaluation of SDG 15 shows that each inhabitant has at their disposal 10 m2 of GUA, below the average of cities of more than 250,000 inhabitants in Spain. The high spatial resolution of the evaluation has also made it possible to identify the city areas with the worst access to GUA and the least amount of GUA per inhabitant. In consequence, the results allow determining zones with high potential to improve. Additionally, the quantification of the CO 2 fixed by the GUA carried out for the evaluation of SDG 13, shows that the fixed carbon is equivalent to 0.04% of total gross GHG emissions of the city and is 36% higher than the total GHG emissions of the annual fuel consumption of the total fleet in the city. Finally, the monitoring of the indicators applied allows evaluating the evolution of the GUA to improve the sustainable development of the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyse the distribution and temporal evolution of convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region of Spain. To accomplish this goal, we used 148 sets of 5-min rainfall rate data from the 1989–2015 period. The selected regions were the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation (CHJ) and the Internal Basins of Catalonia (CIC), which cover most of the autonomous communities of Catalonia and the Valencian Community (east Spain). The average 5-min intensity threshold of 35 mm/h and the β parameter, defined as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period, were used to characterise convective precipitation. Convective episodes were categorised as "very convective", "moderately convective", and "slightly convective" based on the β value. After quality control, the series of 129 stations were clustered into homogeneous precipitation zones that also include β as one of the variables of characterisation. The results show that convective precipitation can contribute to total annual precipitation by up to 16% on average, but it is generated by a very small percentage of convective events (between 3% and 6% across all the stations) in comparison with the total number of rainfall episodes. In this sense, moderately convective events are the most common, with a predominantly unimodal monthly distribution of β, with summer the most convective season. Trends show a significant increase in precipitation, convective precipitation, and convective episodes in the CHJ. On the other hand, a positive trend of convective events is predominant in the CIC region, despite an overall precipitation decrease in the analysed period. These results are relevant given that extreme daily rainfall does not show a positive or significant trend, and they are in line with the impact of climate change on increased atmospheric instability and water vapour in the atmosphere. They highlight the need to work with sub-daily precipitation series in the case of the Mediterranean, which is mainly affected by flash floods. • The contribution of convective precipitation in the East of Spain exceeds 10% annually and can reach 100% in late summer. • Convective precipitation is caused by less than 5% of annual rain episodes that are associated to heavy rains. • Orography (height, orientation, and distance to the sea) plays the major role in triggering convective precipitation. • There is a predominant increase of convective precipitation resulting from a strengthening of thermodynamic conditions. • SST has increased 0,3ºC more than air temperature in the Mediterranean region that results in increasing potential instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]