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Preprints allow researchers to make their findings available to the scientific community before they have undergone peer review. Studies on preprints within bioRxiv have been largely focused on article metadata and how often these preprints are downloaded, cited, published, and discussed online. A missing element that has yet to be examined is the language contained within the bioRxiv preprint repository. We sought to compare and contrast linguistic features within bioRxiv preprints to published biomedical text as a whole as this is an excellent opportunity to examine how peer review changes these documents. The most prevalent features that changed appear to be associated with typesetting and mentions of supporting information sections or additional files. In addition to text comparison, we created document embeddings derived from a preprint-trained word2vec model. We found that these embeddings are able to parse out different scientific approaches and concepts, link unannotated preprint–peer-reviewed article pairs, and identify journals that publish linguistically similar papers to a given preprint. We also used these embeddings to examine factors associated with the time elapsed between the posting of a first preprint and the appearance of a peer-reviewed publication. We found that preprints with more versions posted and more textual changes took longer to publish. Lastly, we constructed a web application (https://greenelab.github.io/preprint-similarity-search/) that allows users to identify which journals and articles that are most linguistically similar to a bioRxiv or medRxiv preprint as well as observe where the preprint would be positioned within a published article landscape., Preprints allow researchers to make their findings available to the scientific community before they have undergone peer review This study analyzes the full text content of the bioRxiv preprint repository, identifying field-specific patterns and changes that occur during publication, and providing a search tool that can identify the published papers that are most similar to a given bioRxiv or medRxiv preprint.

To better prevent the potential risks in Internet-based Supply Chain Financing (SCF) products, this paper optimizes and evaluates the Internet-based SCF-oriented Credit Risk Evaluation (CRE) method. Firstly, this paper summarizes 12 risk factors of SCF business, establishes a Risk Assessment Index System (RAIS) with good consistency and stability; then, the principles of Backpropagation (BP) Neural Network (NN) is expounded together with Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) model. Consequently, a CRE model is implemented by the NN tools in MATLAB based on the collection of multiple groups of SCF-oriented risk assessment samples. Subsequently, the assessment samples are trained and tested. Finally, the SCF-oriented CRE model is proposed and verified. The results show that the BP-GA model has presented high prediction consistency with the actual classification. According to the comparison of classification results of SVM, BP model, and BP-GA model, the classification accuracy of test samples of the proposed Internet-based SCF-oriented CRE system using BP-GA model reaches 97.19%; the Type I and Type II error rate of the CRE system based on BP-GA model is 7.2% and 14.21%, respectively. Therefore, a suitable SCF-oriented CRE method is put forward for China’s commercial banks along with scientific and feasible suggestions to manage SCF-oriented credit risks more reasonably and effectively.

PurposeThe aim of the paper is to identify management practices that are characteristic for SMEs that achieve market success measured by their business performance in last their years of their operation analyze the relationships between management practices applied in small and medium-sized enterprises and their success measured by their business performance drawing on the data from 2710 SMEs operating on the Polish market.Approach/Methodology/DesignA cluster analysis was used to distinguish homogenous SME groups in view of their management practices. We examined differences between groups in terms of their business performance. The HINoV algorithm allowed six variables to be selected out of 32 management practices chosen initially for testing, with these variables providing the basis for grouping. Modal values and medians were calculated for 17 business performance measures in the three clusters produced. The subsequent analysis of those findings was focused on capturing significant differences.FindingsIn the group of 2710 Polish SMEs, it was possible to verify that there existed an association between management practices in the field of modern HRM, computer systems supporting management and the company’s economic performance, as measured by an increase in net revenue and number of customers over the last three years. In clusters where the above mentioned practices were appreciated, modal and median values of the increase reported in net revenue and number of customers were significantly higher.Practical implicationsThe research has shown that at a time marked by a shortage of highly skilled personnel one should pay particular attention to building an integrated and committed team of workers and to employee empowerment. The research has also shown that SME managers monitor only a fraction of basic business performance measures, which may prove to be a major risk to SMEs.Originality/ValuePrevious studies have been largely conducted in a fragmentary manner, i.e. they were concerned with the relationships between the application of some practices (strategic management, BPR, entrepreneurial orientation, monitoring, etc.) and selected business effectiveness measures. In this paper, the research covered SME management practices from a variety of areas which were then compared with the entrepreneurs’ assessment as to whether the company’s economic condition changed over the last three years. It is also the first attempt in post-socialist economies to identify those SME management practices that are related to better economic results.

In their Commentary paper, Villaverde and Massonis (On testing structural identifiability by a simple scaling method: relying on scaling symmetries can be misleading) have commented on our paper in which we proposed a simple scaling method to test structural identifiability. Our scaling invariance method (SIM) tests for scaling symmetries only, and Villaverde and Massonis correctly show the SIM may fail to detect identifiability problems when a model has other types of symmetries. We agree with the limitations raised by these authors but, also, we emphasize that the method is still valuable for its applicability to a wide variety of models, its simplicity, and even as a tool to introduce the problem of identifiability to investigators with little training in mathematics.

Background As the world’s largest coal producer, China was accounted for about 46% of global coal production. Among present coal mining risks, methane gas (called gas in this paper) explosion or ignition in an underground mine remains ever-present. Although many techniques have been used, gas accidents associated with the complex elements of underground gassy mines need more robust monitoring or warning systems to identify risks. This paper aimed to determine which single method between the PCA and Entropy methods better establishes a responsive weighted indexing measurement to improve coal mining safety. Methods Qualitative and quantitative mixed research methodologies were adopted for this research, including analysis of two case studies, correlation analysis, and comparative analysis. The literature reviewed the most-used multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, including subjective methods and objective methods. The advantages and disadvantages of each MCDM method were briefly discussed. One more round literature review was conducted to search publications between 2017 and 2019 in CNKI. Followed two case studies, correlation analysis and comparative analysis were then conducted. Research ethics was approved by the Shanxi Coking Coal Group Research Committee. Results The literature searched a total of 25,831publications and found that the PCA method was the predominant method adopted, and the Entropy method was the second most widely adopted method. Two weighting methods were compared using two case studies. For the comparative analysis of Case Study 1, the PCA method appeared to be more responsive than the Entropy. For Case Study 2, the Entropy method is more responsive than the PCA. As a result, both methods were adopted for different cases in the case study mine and finally deployed for user acceptance testing on 5 November 2020. Conclusions The findings and suggestions were provided as further scopes for further research. This research indicated that no single method could be adopted as the better option for establishing indexing measurement in all cases. The practical implication suggests that comparative analysis should always be conducted on each case and determine the appropriate weighting method to the relevant case. This research recommended that the PCA method was a dimension reduction technique that could be handy for identifying the critical variables or factors and effectively used in hazard, risk, and emergency assessment. The PCA method might also be well-applied for developing predicting and forecasting systems as it was sensitive to outliers. The Entropy method might be suitable for all the cases requiring the MCDM. There is also a need to conduct further research to probe the causal reasons why the PCA and Entropy methods were applied to each case and not the other way round. This research found that the Entropy method provides higher accuracy than the PCA method. This research also found that the Entropy method demonstrated to assess the weights of the higher dimension dataset was higher sensitivity than the lower dimensions. Finally, the comprehensive analysis indicates a need to explore a more responsive method for establishing a weighted indexing measurement for warning applications in hazard, risk, and emergency assessments.

Three-dimensional landscape patterns are an effective means to study the relationship between landscape pattern evolution and eco-environmental effects. This paper selects six districts in Xi’an as the study area to examine the spatial distribution characteristics of the three-dimensional architectural landscape in the city’s main urban area using three-dimensional information on the buildings in 2020 with the support of GIS. In this study, two new architectural landscape indices—landscape height variable coefficient and building rugosity index—were employed in landscape pattern analysis, whilst a system of rigorous and comprehensive three-dimensional architectural landscape metrics was established using principal component analysis. A mathematical model of weighted change of landscape metrics based on the objective weighting method was applied to carry out scale analysis of the landscape patterns. Spatial statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted to comprehensively study the differentiation of three-dimensional architectural landscape spatial patterns. The results show that the characteristic scale of the three-dimensional landscape pattern in Xi’an’s main urban area is around 8 km. Moreover, the three-dimensional landscape of the buildings in this area is spatially positively correlated, exhibiting a high degree of spatial autocorrelation whilst only showing small spatial differences. The layout of the architectural landscape pattern is disorderly and chaotic within the second ring, whilst the clustering of patch types occurs near the third ring. Moreover, the building density in the Beilin, Lianhu, and Xincheng districts is large, the building height types are rich, and the roughness of the underlying surface is high, such that these are key areas to be improved through urban renewal. The height, volume, density, morphological heterogeneity, and vertical roughness of the architectural landscape vary amongst functional areas within the study area. This paper is the first to apply the study of spatial heterogeneity of three-dimensional landscape patterns to Xi’an. It does so in order to provide a quantitative basis for urban landscape ecological design for urban renewal and the rational planning of built-up areas, which will promote the sustainable development of the city’s urban environment.

Enterprises acquire heterogeneous knowledge through external knowledge search and adapt to the change of external environment, which is of great significance to enterprise breakthrough innovation. This paper takes the innovation ecosystem as the boundary of the research paradigm. Based on innovation ecosystem theory, knowledge management theory and enterprise innovation theory, this paper constructs a moderated mediation model of the enterprise knowledge search, knowledge integration and breakthrough innovation under the characteristics of innovation ecosystem network. This model is tested on the survey data of 344 technology enterprise and manufacturing industries including R&D departments in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The research results show that: knowledge integration plays part of the intermediary role between knowledge search and enterprise breakthrough innovation; the larger the network scale, the stronger the network connection, the stronger the intermediary role of knowledge integration on the relationship between knowledge search and enterprise breakthrough innovation. The research results reveal the important role of the innovation ecosystem in enterprise breakthrough innovation. At the same time, the research on knowledge search and enterprise breakthrough innovation should consider the network characteristics of innovation ecosystem and the ability of enterprise knowledge integration.

With the increase of patients with retinopathy, retinopathy recognition has become a research hotspot. In this article, we describe the etiology and symptoms of three kinds of retinal diseases, including drusen(DRUSEN), choroidal neovascularization(CNV) and diabetic macular edema(DME). In addition, we also propose a hybrid attention mechanism to classify and recognize different types of retinopathy images. In particular, the hybrid attention mechanism proposed in this paper includes parallel spatial attention mechanism and channel attention mechanism. It can extract the key features in the channel dimension and spatial dimension of retinopathy images, and reduce the negative impact of background information on classification results. The experimental results show that the hybrid attention mechanism proposed in this paper can better assist the network to focus on extracting thr fetures of the retinopathy area and enhance the adaptability to the differences of different data sets. Finally, the hybrid attention mechanism achieved 96.5% and 99.76% classification accuracy on two public OCT data sets of retinopathy, respectively.

An unbiased, widely accepted estimate of the rate of occurrence of new cases of autism over time would facilitate progress in understanding the causes of autism. The same may also apply to other disorders. While incidence is a widely used measure of occurrence, birth prevalence—the proportion of each birth year cohort with the disorder—is the appropriate measure for disorders and diseases of early childhood. Studies of autism epidemiology commonly speculate that estimates showing strong increases in rate of autism cases result from an increase in diagnosis rates rather than a true increase in cases. Unfortunately, current methods are not sufficient to provide a definitive resolution to this controversy. Prominent experts have written that it is virtually impossible to solve.This paper presents a novel method, time-to-event birth prevalence estimation (TTEPE), to provide accurate estimates of birth prevalence properly adjusted for changing diagnostic factors. It addresses the shortcomings of prior methods. TTEPE is based on well-known time-to-event (survival) analysis techniques. A discrete survival process models the rates of incident diagnoses by birth year and age. Diagnostic factors drive the probability of diagnosis as a function of the year of diagnosis. TTEPE models changes in diagnostic criteria, which can modify the effective birth prevalence when new criteria take effect. TTEPE incorporates the development of diagnosable symptoms with age. General-purpose optimization software estimates all parameters, forming a non-linear regression. The paper specifies all assumptions underlying the analysis and explores potential deviations from assumptions and optional additional analyses.A simulation study shows that TTEPE produces accurate parameter estimates, including trends in both birth prevalence and the probability of diagnosis in the presence of sampling effects from finite populations. TTEPE provides high power to resolve small differences in parameter values by utilizing all available data points.

A query optimizer attempts to predict a performance metric based on the amount of time elapsed. Theoretically, this would necessitate the creation of a significant overhead on the core engine to provide the necessary query optimizing statistics. Machine learning is increasingly being used to improve query performance by incorporating regression models. To predict the response time for a query, most query performance approaches rely on DBMS optimizing statistics and the cost estimation of each operator in the query execution plan, which also focuses on resource utilization (CPU, I/O). Modeling query features is thus a critical step in developing a robust query performance prediction model. In this paper, we propose a new framework based on query feature modeling and ensemble learning to predict query performance and use this framework as a query performance predictor simulator to optimize the query features that influence query performance. In query feature modeling, we propose five dimensions used to model query features. The query features dimensions are syntax, hardware, software, data architecture, and historical performance logs. These features will be based on developing training datasets for the performance prediction model that employs the ensemble learning model. As a result, ensemble learning leverages the query performance prediction problem to deal with missing values. Handling overfitting via regularization. The section on experimental work will go over how to use the proposed framework in experimental work. The training dataset in this paper is made up of performance data logs from various real-world environments. The outcomes were compared to show the difference between the actual and expected performance of the proposed prediction model. Empirical work shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to related work.

Traffic congestion continues to be a persistent problem throughout the world. As vehicle-to-vehicle communication develops, there is an opportunity of using cooperation among close proximity vehicles to tackle the congestion problem. The intuition is that if vehicles could cooperate opportunistically when they come close enough to each other, they could, in effect, spread themselves out among alternative routes so that vehicles do not all jam up on the same roads. Our previous work proposed a decentralized multiagent based vehicular congestion management algorithm entitled Congestion Avoidance and Route Allocation using Virtual Agent Negotiation (CARAVAN), wherein the vehicles acting as intelligent agents perform cooperative route allocation using inter-vehicular communication. This paper focuses on evaluating the practical applicability of this approach by testing its robustness and performance (in terms of travel time reduction), across variations in: (a) environmental parameters such as road network topology and configuration; (b) algorithmic parameters such as vehicle agent preferences and route cost/preference multipliers; and (c) agent-related parameters such as equipped/non-equipped vehicles and compliant/non-compliant agents. Overall, the results demonstrate the adaptability and robustness of the decentralized cooperative vehicles approach to providing global travel time reduction using simple local coordination strategies.

The control system designing of Unmanned Wave Glider (UWG) is challenging since the control system is weak maneuvering, large time-lag and large disturbance, which is difficult to establish accurate mathematical model. Meanwhile, to complete marine environment monitoring in long time scale and large spatial scale autonomously, UWG asks high requirements of intelligence and reliability. This paper focuses on the “Ocean Rambler” UWG. First, the intelligent control system architecture is designed based on the cerebrum basic function combination zone theory and hierarchic control method. The hardware and software designing of the embedded motion control system are mainly discussed. A motion control system based on rational behavior model of four layers is proposed. Then, combining with the line-of sight method(LOS), a self-adapting PID guidance law is proposed to compensate the steady state error in path following of UWG caused by marine environment disturbance especially current. Based on S-surface control method, an improved S-surface heading controller is proposed to solve the heading control problem of the weak maneuvering carrier under large disturbance. Finally, the simulation experiments were carried out and the UWG completed autonomous path following and marine environment monitoring in sea trials. The simulation experiments and sea trial results prove that the proposed intelligent control system, guidance law, controller have favorable control performance, and the feasibility and reliability of the designed intelligent control system of UWG are verified.

In two experiments, we used the simple zero-sum game Rock, Paper and Scissors to study the common reinforcement-based rules of repeating choices after winning (win-stay) and shifting from previous choice options after losing (lose-shift). Participants played the game against both computer opponents who could not be exploited and computer opponents who could be exploited by making choices that would at times conflict with reinforcement. Against unexploitable opponents, participants achieved an approximation of random behavior, contrary to previous research commonly finding reinforcement biases. Against exploitable opponents, the participants learned to exploit the opponent regardless of whether optimal choices conflicted with reinforcement or not. The data suggest that learning a rule that allows one to exploit was largely determined by the outcome of the previous trial.

This paper contributes to the lack of longitudinal studies concerning online information access to corporate governance (CG) practices in the banking sector of Latin American countries. In particular, this study aims to analyze the factors that influence information transparency, both mandatory and voluntary, related to CG practices of banks that operate in Paraguay via their websites from 2016 to 2019. Findings indicate the need to improve the level of information available on websites, with disclosure of voluntary information on CG practices being more prevalent than the disclosure of mandatory information. Likewise, banks that operate in Paraguay have made scant “progress” regarding online access to their governance information over the years analyzed. Moreover, the factors “Bank size” and “listed status” positively influence the information transparency regarding CG practices of Paraguayan banks. In contrast, “leverage,” “liquidity,” “size of the audit firm,” and “credit risk rating” are factors that have a negative relation with the extent of CG disclosure.

Improving travel time prediction for public transit effectively enhances service reliability, optimizes travel structure, and alleviates traffic problems. Its greater time-variance and uncertainty make predictions for short travel times (≤35min) more subject to be influenced by random factors. It requires higher precision and is more complicated than long-term predictions. Effectively extracting and mining real-time, accurate, reliable, and low-cost multi-source data such as GPS, AFC, and IC can provide data support for travel time prediction. Kalman filter model has high accuracy in one-step prediction and can be used to calculate a large amount of data. This paper adopts the Kalman filter as a travel time prediction model for a single bus based on single-line detection: including the travel time prediction model of route (RTM) and the stop dwell time prediction model (DTM); the evaluation criteria and indexes of the models are given. The error analysis of the prediction results is carried out based on AVL data by case study. Results show that under the precondition of multi-source data, the public transportation prediction model can meet the accuracy requirement for travel time prediction and the prediction effect of the whole route is superior to that of the route segment between stops.

In order to establish natural social synchrony between two humans, two requirements need to be fulfilled. First, the coupling must be bi-directional. The two humans react to each other’s actions. Second, natural social bodily synchronization has to be intentional or unintentional. Assuming that these essential aspects of human-human interactions are present, the present paper investigates whether similar bodily synchrony emerges between an interacting human and an artificial agent such as a robot. More precisely, we investigate whether the same human unintentional rhythmic entrainment and synchronization is present in Human Robot Interaction (HRI). We also evaluate which model (e.g., an adaptive vs non adaptive robot) better reproduces such unintentional entrainment. And finally, we compare interagent coordination stability of the HRI under 1) unidirectional (robot with fixed frequency) versus bidirectional (robot with adaptive frequency) rhythmic entrainment and 2) human intentional versus unintentional coupling. Fifteen young adults made vertical arm movements in front of the NAO robot under five different conditions of intentional/unintentional and unidirectional/bidirectional interactions. Consistent with prior research investigating human-human interpersonal coordination, when humans interact with our robot, (i) unintentional entrainment was present, (ii) bi-directional coupling produced more stable in-phase un-intentional and intentional coordination, (iii) and intentional coordination was more stable than unintentional coordination. To conclude, this study provides a foundation for modeling future social robots involving unintentional and bidirectional synchronization—aspects which seem to enhance humans’ willingness to interact with robots.

Online virtual museum tours combine museum authority and an academic approach with the diversity and interactivity of online resources; such tours have become an essential resource for online scientific research and education. Many important museums around the world are developing this type of online service. Comprehensive evaluation of such tours is, however, urgently needed to ensure effectiveness. This paper establishes a heuristic evaluation scale based on the literature. Taking the online virtual tour of the Exhibition of Architecture of the Forbidden City as a case study, confirmatory factor analysis was then carried out to improve the scale. Interviews were conducted to discuss and analyze the research results. The developed evaluation scale has four dimensions: authenticity, interaction, navigation, and learning. The results from the case study showed, first, that the exhibition had visual authenticity, but the behavioral authenticity was insufficient; second, the exhibition was generally interactive, but this aspect could be improved by enriching the links; third, the lack of effective navigation design for the exhibit was the main factor affecting experience quality. Fourth, the exhibition was informative and supported learning, but needs further improvement to the quantity and quality of information provided. Finally, the interviews revealed that the online exhibition did not entirely support people of different ages and abilities, so it needs further improvement to be wholly inclusive.

Transport layer security (TLS) protocol is the most widely used security protocol in modern network communications. However, protocol vulnerabilities caused by the design of the network protocol or its implementation by programmers emerge one after another. Meanwhile, various versions of TLS protocol implementations exhibit different behavioral characteristics. Researchers are attempting to find the differences in protocol implementations based on differential testing, which is conducive to discovering the vulnerabilities. This paper provides a solution to find the differences more efficiently by targeting the TLS protocol handshake process. The differences of different implementations during the fuzzing process, such as code coverage and response data, are taken to guide the mutation of test cases, and the seeds are mutated based on the TLS protocol syntax. In addition, the definition of duplicate discrepancies is theoretically explored to investigate the root cause of the discrepancies and to reduce the number of duplicate cases that are caused by the same reason. Besides, the necessary conditions for excluding duplicate cases are further analyzed to develop the deduplication strategy. The proposed method is developed based on open-source tools, i.e., NEZHA and TLS-diff. Three types of widely used TLS protocol implementations, i.e., OpenSSL, BoringSSL, and LibreSSL, are taken for experimental testing. The experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the ability to find differences between different implementations. Under the same test scale or the same time, the amount of discrepancies increases by about 20% compared to TLS-diff, indicating the effectiveness of the deduplication strategy.

Instance segmentation is more challenging and difficult than object detection and semantic segmentation. It paves the way for the realization of a complete scene understanding, and has been widely used in robotics, automatic driving, medical care, and other aspects. However, there are some problems in instance segmentation methods, such as the low detection efficiency for low-resolution objects and the slow detection speed of images with complex backgrounds. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an instance segmentation method with multi-scale attention, which is called a Hybrid Kernel Mask R-CNN. Firstly, the hybrid convolution kernel is constructed by combining different kernels and groups, which can complement each other to extract rich information. Secondly, a multi-scale attention mechanism is designed by assign weights to different convolution kernels, which can retain more important information. After the introduction of our strategy, the network is more inclined to focus on the low-resolution objects in the image. The proposed method achieves the best accuracy over the anchor-based method. To verify the universality of the model, we test Hybrid Kernel Mask R-CNN on Balloon, xBD and COCO datasets. The test results exceed the state of art methods. And the visualization results show our method can extract low-resolution objects effectively.

Social media represent an important source of news for many users. They are, however, affected by misinformation and they might be playing a role in the growth of political polarization. In this paper, we create an agent based model to investigate how policing content and backlash on social media (i.e. conflict) can lead to an increase in polarization for both users and news sources. Our model is an advancement over previously proposed models because it allows us to study the polarization of both users and news sources, the evolution of the audience connections between users and sources, and it makes more realistic assumptions about the starting conditions of the system. We find that the tendency of users and sources to avoid policing, backlash and conflict in general can increase polarization online. Specifically polarization comes from the ease of sharing political posts, intolerance for opposing points of view causing backlash and policing, and volatility in changing one’s opinion when faced with new information. On the other hand, it seems that the integrity of a news source in trying to resist the backlash and policing has little effect.

The Monitoring and Analysis Centre for the fight against money laundering is a valid financial information body which is responsible for collecting, analysing and providing financial information and conducting international exchanges of financial information for relevant undertakings. By constructing the analysis of the monitoring of the local and foreign currency and of the data transmission subsystem in the plan for the transitional period against In the light of the above, the Commission will continue to monitor the implementation of the acquis in the light of the progress made in implementing the acquis future new systems. The purpose of this paper is to study the research and implementation of the security control of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system. This article studies the application of decision tree analysis technology in the anti-money laundering monitoring system of insurance companies to achieve the purpose of improving the anti-money laundering monitoring technology and capabilities of insurance companies. The emergence of data mining technology provides a new system solution for anti-money laundering monitoring. For insurance anti-money laundering, how to find potential money laundering cases in suspicious and large surrender transactions is key. The experimental data show that the decision tree method is the best predictor of the customer category between the insurance application and the surrender days. The decision tree analysis technology has greatly improved the security monitoring capabilities of the insurance in the anti-money laundering monitoring system. Experimental data shows that the security control capabilities of the anti-money laundering monitoring and analysis system make the accuracy of the entire model reach 95%, the accuracy of large and suspicious transactions reaches 88.6%, and the correct classification of customers is about 99.6%.

Understanding how textual information impacts financial market volatility has been one of the growing topics in financial econometric research. In this paper, we aim to examine the relationship between the volatility measure that is extracted from GARCH modelling and textual news information both publicly available and from subscription, and the performances of the two datasets are compared. We utilize a latent Dirichlet allocation method to capture the dynamic features of the textual data overtime by summarizing their statistical outputs, such as topic distributions in documents and word distributions in topics. In addition, we transform various measures representing the popularity and diversity of topics to form predictors for a rolling regression model to assess the usefulness of textual information. The proposed method captures the statistical properties of textual information over different time periods and its performance is evaluated in an out-of-sample analysis. Our results show that the topic measures are more useful for predicting our volatility proxy, the unexplained variance from the GARCH model than the simple moving average. The finding indicates that our method is helpful in extracting significant textual information to improve the prediction of stock market volatility.

Some evidence suggests that people behave more cooperatively and generously when observed or in the presence of images of eyes (termed the ‘watching eyes’ effect). Eye images are thought to trigger feelings of observation, which in turn motivate people to behave more cooperatively to earn a good reputation. However, several recent studies have failed to find evidence of the eyes effect. One possibility is that inconsistent evidence in support of the eyes effect is a product of individual differences in sensitivity or susceptibility to the cue. In fact, some evidence suggests that people who are generally more prosocial are less susceptible to situation-specific reputation-based cues of observation. In this paper, we sought to (1) replicate the eyes effect, (2) replicate the past finding that people who are dispositionally less prosocial are more responsive to observation than people who are more dispositionally more prosocial, and (3) determine if this effect extends to the watching eyes effect. Results from a pre-registered study showed that people did not give more money in a dictator game when decisions were made public or in the presence of eye images, even though participants felt more observed when decisions were public. That is, we failed to replicate the eyes effect and observation effect. An initial, but underpowered, interaction model suggests that egoists give less than prosocials in private, but not public, conditions. This suggests a direction for future research investigating if and how individual differences in prosociality influence observation effects.

In this paper, we presentautopsych, a novel online tool that allows school assessment experts, test developers, and researchers to perform routine psychometric analyses and equating of student test data and to examine the effect of student demographic and group conditions on student test performance. The app extends current open-source software by providing (1) extensive embedded result narration and summaries for written reports, (2) improved handling of partial credit data via customizable item-person Wright maps, (3) customizable item- and person-flagging systems, (4) item-response theory model constraints and controls, (5) many-facets Rasch analysis to examine item bias, (6) Rasch fixed item equating for mapping student ability across test forms, (7) tabbed spreadsheet outputs and immediate options for secondary data analysis, (8) customizable graphical color schemes, (9) extended ANOVA analysis for examining group differences, and (10) inter-rater reliability analyses for the verifying the consistency of rater scoring systems. We present the app’s architecture and functionalities and test its performance with simulated and real-world small-, medium-, and large-scale assessment data. Implications and planned future developments are also discussed.

With the development of recent years, the field of deep learning has made great progress. Compared with the traditional machine learning algorithm, deep learning can better find the rules in the data and achieve better fitting effect. In this paper, we propose a hybrid stock forecasting model based on Feature Selection, Convolutional Neural Network and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (FS-CNN-BGRU). Feature Selection (FS) can select the data with better performance for the results as the input data after data normalization. Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is responsible for feature extraction. It can extract the local features of the data, pay attention to more local information, and reduce the amount of calculation. The Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU) can process the data with time series, so that it can have better performance for the data with time series attributes. In the experiment, we used single CNN, LSTM and GRU models and mixed models CNN-LSTM, CNN-GRU and FS-CNN-BGRU (the model used in this manuscript). The results show that the performance of the hybrid model (FS-CNN-BGRU) is better than other single models, which has a certain reference value.

In the aftermath of shock events, policy responses tend to be crafted under significant time constraints and high levels of uncertainty. The extent to which individuals comply with different policy designs can further influence how effective the policy responses are and how equitably their impacts are distributed in the population. Tools which allow policymakers to model different crisis trajectories, policy responses, and behavioral scenariosex antecan provide crucial timely support in the decision-making process. Set in the context of COVID-19 shelter in place policies, in this paper we present the COVID-19 Policy Evaluation (CoPE) tool, which is an agent-based modeling framework that enables researchers and policymakers to anticipate the relative impacts of policy decisions. Specifically, this framework illuminates the extent to which policy design features and behavioral responsiveness influence the efficacy and equity of policy responses to shock events. We show that while an early policy response can be highly effective, the impact of the timing is moderated by other aspects of policy design such as duration and targeting of the policy, as well as societal aspects such as trust and compliance among the population. More importantly, we show that even policies that are more effective overall can have disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations. By disaggregating the impact of different policy design elements on different population groups, we provide an additional tool for policymakers to use in the design of targeted strategies for disproportionately affected populations.

Containers have emerged as a more portable and efficient solution than virtual machines for cloud infrastructure providing both a flexible way to build and deploy applications. The quality of service, security, performance, energy consumption, among others, are essential aspects of their deployment, management, and orchestration. Inappropriate resource allocation can lead to resource contention, entailing reduced performance, poor energy efficiency, and other potentially damaging effects. In this paper, we present a set of online job allocation strategies to optimize quality of service, energy savings, and completion time, considering contention for shared on-chip resources. We consider the job allocation as the multilevel dynamic bin-packing problem that provides a lightweight runtime solution that minimizes contention and energy consumption while maximizing utilization. The proposed strategies are based on two and three levels of scheduling policies with container selection, capacity distribution, and contention-aware allocation. The energy model considers joint execution of applications of different types on shared resources generalized by the job concentration paradigm. We provide an experimental analysis of eighty-six scheduling heuristics with scientific workloads of memory and CPU-intensive jobs. The proposed techniques outperform classical solutions in terms of quality of service, energy savings, and completion time by 21.73–43.44%, 44.06–92.11%, and 16.38–24.17%, respectively, leading to a cost-efficient resource allocation for cloud infrastructures.

Hand gesture recognition tasks based on surface electromyography (sEMG) are vital in human-computer interaction, speech detection, robot control, and rehabilitation applications. However, existing models, whether traditional machine learnings (ML) or other state-of-the-arts, are limited in the number of movements. Targeting a large number of gesture classes, more data features such as temporal information should be persisted as much as possible. In the field of sEMG-based recognitions, the recurrent convolutional neural network (RCNN) is an advanced method due to the sequential characteristic of sEMG signals. However, the invariance of the pooling layer damages important temporal information. In the all convolutional neural network (ACNN), because of the feature-mixing convolution operation, a same output can be received from completely different inputs. This paper proposes a concatenate feature fusion (CFF) strategy and a novel concatenate feature fusion recurrent convolutional neural network (CFF-RCNN). In CFF-RCNN, a max-pooling layer and a 2-stride convolutional layer are concatenated together to replace the conventional simple dimensionality reduction layer. The featurewise pooling operation serves as a signal amplitude detector without using any parameter. The feature-mixing convolution operation calculates the contextual information. Complete evaluations are made on both the accuracy and convergence speed of the CFF-RCNN. Experiments are conducted using three sEMG benchmark databases named DB1, DB2 and DB4 from the NinaPro database. With more than 50 gestures, the classification accuracies of the CFF-RCNN are 88.87% on DB1, 99.51% on DB2, and 99.29% on DB4. These accuracies are the highest compared with reported accuracies of machine learnings and other state-of-the-art methods. To achieve accuracies of 86%, 99% and 98% for the RCNN, the training time are 2353.686 s, 816.173 s and 731.771 s, respectively. However, for the CFF-RCNN to reach the same accuracies, it needs only 1727.415 s, 542.245 s and 576.734 s, corresponding to a reduction of 26.61%, 33.56% and 21.19% in training time. We concluded that the CFF-RCNN is an improved method when classifying a large number of hand gestures. The CFF strategy significantly improved model performance with higher accuracy and faster convergence as compared to traditional RCNN.

In this paper, a general class of estimators is proposed for estimating the finite population mean for sensitive variable, in the presence of measurement error and non-response in simple random sampling. Expressions for bias and mean square error up to first order of approximation, are derived. Impact of measurement errors is examined using real data sets, including the survey conducted at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. Simulated data sets are also used to observe the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison to some other estimators. We obtain the empirical bias and MSE values for the proposed and the competing estimators.

This paper presents validation of the VR Simulation Realism Scale on a Polish sample. The scale enables a self-report measurement of perceived realism of a virtual environment in four main aspects of such realism–scene realism, audience behavior realism, audience appearance realism and sound realism. However, since the development of the original scale, the VR technology significantly changed. We aimed to respond to that change and revalidate the original measure in the contemporary setting. For the purpose of scale validation, data was gathered from six studies with 720 participants in total. Five experiments and one online survey were conducted to examine psychometric properties of the scale in accordance with the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing. Evidence based on internal structure, relations to other variables and test content was obtained. The factorial structure of the original scale was tested and confirmed. The connections between realism and immersion, presence, aesthetics were verified. A suppressed relationship between realism and positive affect was discovered. Moreover, it was confirmed that scale result is dependent on the quality of VR graphics. Results of the analyses provide the evidence that the VR Simulation Realism Scale is a well-established tool that might be used both in science and in VR development. However, further research needs to be done to increase external validity and predictive power of the scale.

Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estimated parameters from the MSDR model include each state’s mean and duration, volatility and transition probabilities. Once these parameters have been estimated, we use the one-step method to predict the unobserved states’ evolution over time. This gives us unique insights into the evolution of happiness. Furthermore, as maximising happiness is a policy priority, we determine the factors that can contribute to the probability of increasing happiness levels. We empirically test these models using New Zealand’s daily happiness data for May 2019 –November 2020. The results show that New Zealand seems to have two regimes, an unhappy and happy regime. In 2019 the happy regime dominated; thus, the probability of being unhappy in the next time period (day) occurred less frequently, whereas the opposite is true for 2020. The higher frequency of time periods with a probability of being unhappy in 2020 mostly correspond to pandemic events. Lastly, we find the factors positively and significantly related to the probability of being happy after lockdown to be jobseeker support payments and international travel. On the other hand, lack of mobility is significantly and negatively related to the probability of being happy.

In 2020, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused major limitations for any aspect of social life and in specific for all events that require a gathering of people. While most events of this kind can be postponed or cancelled, democratic elections are key elements of any democratic regime and should be upheld if at all possible. Consequently, proper planning is required to establish the highest possible level of safety to both voters and scrutineers. In this paper, we present the novel and innovative way how the municipal council and district council elections in Vienna were planned and conducted using an discrete event simulation model. Key target of this process was to avoid queues in front of polling stations to reduce the risk of related infection clusters. In cooperation with a hygiene expert, we defined necessary precautions that should be met during the election in order to avoid the spread of COVID-19. In a next step, a simulation model was established and parametrized and validated using data from previous elections. Furthermore, the planned conditions were simulated to see whether excessive queues in front of any polling stations could form, as these could on the one hand act as an infection herd, and on the other hand, turn voters away. Our simulation identified some polling stations where long queues could emerge. However, splitting up these electoral branches resulted in a smooth election across all of Vienna. Looking back, the election did not lead to a significant increase of COVID-19 incidences. Therefore, it can be concluded that careful planning led to a safe election, despite the pandemic.Author summaryWhy was this study done?The ongoing COVID-19-Pandemic poses a risk for elections, as these could lead to another spread of the disease.Additional hygiene measures, which are inevitable if the election is conducted, could lead to long queues in front of the polling stations on election day.What did the researchers do and find?We describe the defined additional hygiene measures.We modeled the whole election process, including the new hygiene concept, to show where extensive queues could form on the election day.We show that thanks to the additional hygiene measures, the election actually did not cause a temporary upswing of the epidemic.What do these findings mean?Thanks to careful planning, it is possible to safely hold an election during such a pandemic.Our simulation contributed to a safe and smooth election.However, it should be stated, that these findings hold for elections in Austria, where long queues in front of polling stations are comparably rare and short.

Efficient order execution plays a crucial role in the activity of every company. In production planning it is important to find a balance between the fluctuations of orders and stability of production flow regarding the company. One of the methods of achieving this goal is heijunka (production leveling). This paper presents a study of choosing the best variant of the production planning and control system for the production of standard parts. Three variants are investigated regarding delays in order delivery. The analysis of variants was conducted using a simulation method. The method of choosing the best variant for the production system being investigated is also proposed. The results show that the best variant is a mix of production leveling and production "for stock".

With the continuing increase in online communications, virtual proximity as well as physical proximity has become a common way to connect individuals. Virtual proximity refers to the psychological closeness felt by people based on their participation in a virtual space. Hence, augmenting physical proximity with virtual types is believed to enhance connectivity within social networks, and applications that consider both types have the capability to provide new forms of interaction. However, despite the importance of their coexistence, these proximity concepts have been studied separately or are being integrated using diverse terminologies that often lead to misunderstandings. Furthermore, although some applications reflect the two proximity types (e.g., location-based services), there is no metric of comparison. This paper proposes the concept of augmented proximity (AP), which combines physical and virtual forms into a network analogous to one of mixed reality (MR). The concept provides a clear distinction between physical and virtual proximity using a single quantitative value. Using this concept, a formal taxonomy is established to compare and evaluate AP-based networks. The taxonomy consists of three dimensions that can be analyzed using graph theory, including the extent of connectivity degree, diffusion effect, and extent of perceived closeness. Furthermore, using the services underlying AP-based network, the proposed taxonomy can be applied to evaluate the suitability of the services as an indicator for comparison. The results show that one of the two services has a higher taxonomy-based value, and a reasonable basis for selecting one based on proximity is established. This study suggests that AP will play an important role as a quantitative indicator in developing and comparing applications that consider proximity in both virtual and physical modes.

Searching similar pictures for a given picture is an important task in numerous applications, including image recommendation system, image classification and image retrieval. Previous studies mainly focused on the similarities of content, which measures similarities based on visual features, such as color and shape, and few of them pay enough attention to semantics. In this paper, we propose a link-based semantic similarity search method, namely PictureSim, for effectively searching similar pictures by building a picture-tag network. The picture-tag network is built by “description” relationships between pictures and tags, in which tags and pictures are treated as nodes, and relationships between pictures and tags are regarded as edges. Then we design a TF-IDF-based model to removes the noisy links, so the traverses of these links can be reduced. We observe that “similar pictures contain similar tags, and similar tags describe similar pictures”, which is consistent with the intuition of the SimRank. Consequently, we utilize the SimRank algorithm to compute the similarity scores between pictures. Compared with content-based methods, PictureSim could effectively search similar pictures semantically. Extensive experiments on real datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the PictureSim.

This paper examines the impact of rural e-commerce development on rural households’ digital credit behavior at the micro-level by using a multivariate Probit model and propensity score matching method with rural residents in the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) database. Specifically, we examine the complementary or substitution relationship between digital credit and traditional bank credit and the impact of participation in e-commerce on the scale of digital credit of rural households. The empirical results show that there is a substitution relationship between digital credit and traditional bank credit. Participation in e-commerce has a positive impact on the scale of digital credit and the full scale of credit obtained by farmers, with an increase of $0.922 million and $37.49 million in the scale of digital credit and real credit received by farmers who participate in e-commerce, respectively, compared with those who do not participate in e-commerce. Further tests revealed that the difference in capital endowment was an essential reason for the disparity in the size of digital credit received among e-commerce farmers.