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Summary: The expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is a familiar tool for computing the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in hidden Markov and semi‐Markov models. This paper carries out a detailed study on the influence that the initial values of the parameters impose on the results produced by the algorithm. We compare random starts and partitional and model‐based strategies for choosing the initial values for the EM algorithm in the case of multivariate Gaussian emission distributions (EDs) and assess the performance of each strategy with different assessment criteria. Several data generation settings are considered with varying number of latent states, of variables as well as of the level of fuzziness in the data, and discussion on how each factor influences the obtained results is provided. Simulation results show that different initialization strategies may lead to different log‐likelihood values and, accordingly, to different estimated partitions. A clear indication of which strategies should be preferred is given. We further include two real‐data examples, widely analysed in the hidden semi‐Markov model literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multivariate contaminated normal (MCN) distribution represents a simple heavy-tailed generalization of the multivariate normal (MN) distribution to model elliptical contoured scatters in the presence of mild outliers (also referred to as 'bad' points herein) and automatically detect bad points. The price of these advantages is two additional parameters: proportion of good observations and degree of contamination. However, in a multivariate setting, only one proportion of good observations and only one degree of contamination may be limiting. To overcome this limitation, we propose a multiple scaled contaminated normal (MSCN) distribution. Among its parameters, we have an orthogonal matrix Γ. In the space spanned by the vectors (principal components) of Γ, there is a proportion of good observations and a degree of contamination for each component. Moreover, each observation has a posterior probability of being good with respect to each principal component. Thanks to this probability, the method provides directional robust estimates of the parameters of the nested MN and automatic directional detection of bad points. The term 'directional' is added to specify that the method works separately for each principal component. Mixtures of MSCN distributions are also proposed, and an expectation-maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Real and simulated data are considered to show the usefulness of our mixture with respect to well-established mixtures of symmetric distributions with heavy tails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and its nested models. These include widely used parametric choices like the multivariate normal, skew‐t$$ t $$, Laplace, and several others. We also introduce the multiple‐choice LASSO, a novel penalized method for choosing among alternative constraints on the same parameter. A hierarchical multiple‐choice Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized likelihood is optimized to perform simultaneous model selection and inference within the GH family. We illustrate our approach through a simulation study and a real data example. The methodology proposed in this paper has been implemented in R functions which are available as supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose the family of dimension-wise scaled normal mixtures (DSNMs) to model the joint distribution of a d -variate random variable with real-valued components. Each member of the family generalizes the multivariate normal (MN) distribution in two directions. Firstly, the DSNM has a more general type of symmetry with respect to the elliptical symmetry of the MN distribution. Secondly, the univariate marginals have similar heavy-tailed normal scale mixture distributions with (possibly) different tailedness parameters; as a consequence of practical interest, the DSNM allows for a different excess kurtosis on each dimension. These peculiarities are obtained in an MN scale mixture framework by introducing a d -variate mixing random variable with independent and similar components acting separately for each dimension. We examine several properties of DSNMs, such as the joint density function, hierarchical and stochastic representations, relations with other families of symmetric distributions, type of symmetry, marginal and conditional distributions, no correlation implying independence, moment generating function, and moments of practical interest. For illustrative purposes, we describe two members of the DSNM family obtained in the case of components of the mixing random vector being either uniform or shifted exponential; these are examples of mixing distributions that guarantee a closed-form expression for the joint density of the DSNM. For the two DSNMs analyzed in detail, we introduce parsimony by allowing the d tailedness parameters to be tied across dimensions, and describe algorithms, based on the expectation–maximization (EM) principle, to estimate the parameters by maximum likelihood. We use real data from the financial and biometrical fields to appreciate the advantages of our DSNMs over other symmetric heavy-tailed distributions available in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]