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In recent decades, developing countries have experienced an increase in the impact of natural disasters due to ongoing climate change and the sustained expansion of urban areas. The intrinsic vulnerability of settlements, due to poverty and poor governance, as well as the lack of tools for urban occupation planning and mitigation protocols, has made such impacts particularly severe. Cuenca (Ecuador) is a significant example of a city that in recent decades has experienced considerable population growth (i.e. exposure) and an associated increase in loss due to landslide occurrence. Despite such effects, updated urban planning tools are absent, so an evaluation of multitemporal exposure to landslides and related risks is required. In this perspective, a potential urban planning tool is presented based on updated data depicting the spatial distribution of landslides and their predisposing factors, as well as population change between 2010 and 2020. In addition, a multitemporal analysis accounting for changes in exposure between 2010 and 2020 and an estimation of relative landside risk was carried out. Due to the absence of spatially distributed population data, energy supply contract data have been used as a proxy of the population. The results show that the current higher exposure and related relative risk are estimated for parishes (parroquias) located in the southern sector of the study area (i.e. Turi, Santa Ana, Tarqui, Nulti, Baños and Paccha). Moreover, the exposure multitemporal analysis indicates that most parishes located in the hilly areas bounding the city centre (i.e. Sayausi, San Joaquin, Tarqui, Sidcay, Baños, Ricaurte, Paccha and Chiquintad) are experiencing sustained population growth and will be potentially exposed to an increased risk with a consistently growing trend. The obtained relative risk map can be considered a valuable tool for guiding land planning, land management, occupation restriction and early warning strategy adoption in the area. The methodological approach used, which accounts for landslide susceptibility and population variation through proxy data analysis, has the potential to be applied in a similar context of growing population cities in low- to mid-income countries, where data usually needed for a comprehensive landslide risk analysis are non-existing or only partially available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides represent a severe geohazard in many countries. The availability of inventories depicting the spatial and temporal distribution of landslides is crucial for assessing landslide susceptibility and risk for territorial planning or investigating landscape evolution. Nevertheless, these inventories are usually affected by limitations due to their nonpublic availability and inhomogeneities in characterization and mapping. Such problems are fully recognizable by the analysis of the multiple landslide inventories of the Campania region, which is one of the Italian regions with the highest exposure to landslide hazard and risk. On this basis, a revised Landslide Inventory of the Campania region (LaICa), resulting from the processing of multiple existing landslide inventories, has been reconstructed. It aims to (i) provide a new geodatabase that is able to overcome issues derived from the coexistence of multiple inventories and (ii) provide a methodological paradigm able to support the reorganization of existing official inventories. The implication of LaICa, with its 83,284 records, will possibly improve the assessment of landslide susceptibility and then reassess the related risk. Measurement(s) landslide Technology Type(s) Data Set [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of timing and potential locations of rainfallinduced shallow landslides through mathematical models represents a challenge for the assessment of landslide hazard, especially in cases with limited or not available data. In fact, modeling slope hydrological response and stability requires accurate estimates of unsaturated/saturated hydraulic and geotechnical properties of materials involved in landsliding, as well as climate and topography. Such aspect is relevant for the prediction of location and timing of landslide events, which is greatly needed to reduce their catastrophic effects in terms of economic losses and casualties. To such a scope, we present the comparison of results of two physics-based models applied to the assessment of susceptibility to shallow rainfall-induced landslides in Valtellina region (northern Italy). The analyses were carried out considering effects of availability, resolution and type of data concerning spatial distribution, thickness and properties of soils coverings. For such a scope, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) and the Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modeling Experiment (CHRyME) models were considered. The study emphasizes issues in performing distributed numerical slope stability modeling depending on the availability of spatially distributed soil properties which hamper the quality of physic-based models. Further analyses aimed at the probabilistic assessment of landslide spatial distribution, related to a specific value of rainfall threshold, can be considered as potentially applicable to multi-scale landslide hazard mapping and extendable to other similar mountainous frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents a sinkhole susceptibility and risk assessment mapping in Guidonia-Bagni di Tivoli plain (Italy), a travertine sinkhole-prone area where sudden occurrences of sinkholes have happened in past and recent times. We collected a point-like sinkhole inventory and we considered a series of different sinkholecontrolling and precursory factors over the study area, related to its geo-litho-hydrological setting and to its terrain deformational scenario, i.e. ground motion rates derived from InSAR COSMOSkyMed imagery. A sinkhole susceptibility map was produced through a machine learning model, namely Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). Results highlight that the most determining factors for sinkhole formation are the lithology, the travertine thickness, groundwater and the land use. The sinkhole susceptibility map was then combined with data on vulnerability and elements-at-risk economic exposure in order to provide a sinkhole risk map of the area. The outcomes show that areas at higher risk covers about 2% of the total study area and primarily relies on the zoning of the main urban fabric. In particular, it is worth to highlight that 5% of the whole road-network pavement and 27% of all the residential buildings fall into High and Very High risk classes. Overall, results of this work demonstrate capabilities of machine learning models to assess sinkhole susceptibility for predicting potential sinkhole areas, and provide a sinkhole risk map, along with information on urban environment, as a useful tool for urban planning and geohazard risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new open-source and physically based model for Spatial Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides (SPRIn-SL) through the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software. SPRIn-SL consists of a set of shell scripts developed using the Python language that can be directly run from the QGIS processing toolbox through a user-friendly graphical interface. The tool implements the infinite slope method by incorporating the TOPOG and the Green-Ampt models to consider groundwater flow and transient rainfall infiltration, respectively. Furthermore, DEM pre-processing procedures to extract reliable terrain morphometric features, a new statistical method for modelling soil depth and a procedure for predictive accuracy evaluation, were implemented. By using a 1-m resolution DEM, the developed model was tested in a small coastal catchment of Cinque Terre (Liguria, Italy), providing accurate outcomes, and proving to be an easy-to-use tool for landslide susceptibility zoning which can have useful implications on the risk reduction. • QGIS module written in Python for spatially predicting shallow landslides. • DEM pre-processing procedures to extract reliable morphometric predisposing factors. • A new statistical method for modelling soil depth is implemented. • High accuracy in simulating rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a test basin. • Easy-to-use physically based tool for landslide susceptibility zoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]