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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability affecting global weather and climate. However, limited observational records hinder our understanding of the evolution of natural ENSO variability and its driving mechanisms. In this study, ENSO variations from 665 to 749 CE (Common Era) were investigated using monthly sea surface temperature (SST) records of the northern South China Sea derived from coral strontium to calcium ratios of sub‐fossil Porites obtained at the Xisha Islands. The results suggested the existence of cold conditions in this period relative to the twentieth century. No change in SST seasonality for the CE was found that is in agreement with the orbitally controlled insolation seasonality at that time. ENSO variability during 665–749 CE was enhanced by 39% than that during 1980–2014 CE and exhibited fluctuations. A persistent dampened ENSO variability with frequent El Niño events from 665 to 700 CE was followed by a rapid increase in variability to a level double that of the present. The frequency of La Niña events increased during this time. The abrupt transformation of ENSO activity at 700 CE was attributed to the increased natural radiative forcing induced by intense solar irradiance and weak volcanism. This paper demonstrates that ENSO variability can be influenced by external forcings, such as changes in solar and volcanic activity, and not only by the internal dynamics of the climate system. Plain Language Summary: Reconstructing the amplitude and frequency of historical El Niño and La Niña events will allow us to better understand the driving mechanisms of their evolution and improve predictions of ENSO under anthropogenic climate change. This study reconstructed monthly sea surface temperature (SST) from 665 to 749 CE using a continuous sub‐fossil coral Sr/Ca record from Xisha Islands. We demonstrated that the northern South China Sea and its adjacent area experienced cold conditions during this period, with no change in SST seasonality relative to the present. Our results also revealed that ENSO variability during 665–749 CE exhibited significant fluctuations from a state with dampened ENSO to one with amplified ENSO, accompanied by a transition from frequent El Niño to La Niña anomalies. The abrupt increase in ENSO variability after 700 CE was triggered by the increased solar irradiance and weak volcanic eruptions. This suggests that in addition to the internal dynamics of the climate system, ENSO variability is also influenced by external forcings. Key Points: Cooler conditions and similar sea surface temperature seasonality compared to the present characterized 665–749 CEEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability during 665–749 CE was 39% higher than that during 1980–2014 CEEnhanced solar activity triggered an abrupt increase in ENSO variability at 700 CE [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the dual effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities, coral reefs in the South China Sea (SCS) are at serious risk of degradation. Galaxea fascicularis is a widely distributed species in the SCS, and the study of its genetics, survival, and adaptability is conducive to further understanding the future characteristics of coral reefs in the SCS. In this study, 146 G. fascicularis samples were selected from 9 survey stations across 12 latitudes in the SCS, and 8 pairs of microsatellite markers were used to characterize their genetic diversity and structure. The results showed moderate genetic diversity index values (A r = 3.444–4.147, H e = 0.634–0.782, H o = 0.367–0.586). The AMOVA results and pairwise F ST values showed a moderate level of genetic differentiation (Φ ST = 0.119, P < 0.05) among G. fascicularis populations in the SCS, whereas its genetic structure showed high genetic differentiation (F ST = 0.062–0.225) among relatively high-latitude populations (n = 3) and low genetic differentiation (F ST = 0.012–0.064) in low-latitude populations (n = 6). The living environment of relatively high-latitude populations is disturbed by high-intensity human activities, leading to the specialization of local populations. Mantel test results showed a significant positive correlation between genetic differentiation among G. fascicularis populations and sea surface temperature (SST) variance (R2 = 0.4885; Mantel test, p = 0.010 < 0.05) in addition to geographical distance (R2 = 0.1134; Mantel, test p = 0.040 < 0.05), indicating that SST and geographical isolation were primary factors affecting the genetic structure of this species in the SCS. The lower genetic diversity and limited gene flow of G. fascicularis indicate limited genetic adaptation, and corresponding vulnerability may be more pronounced under future environmental changes. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and restoration of coral reefs in the SCS. [Display omitted] • Galaxea fascicularis show moderate genetic diversity and differentiation in South China Sea. • Under climate change, the local degradation risk of G. fascicularis in SCS is high. • Genetic structure of G. fascicularis is shaped by SSTs and geographical isolation. • Higher latitude populations of G. fascicularis are specialized to human activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with other ocean basins, annual resolution long-term series of sea-level records in the South China Sea (SCS) are still rare. Here we first analyzed the correlation mechanism between the oxygen stable isotopes (δ18O) of Porites coral and instrumental sea-level, sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall of the SCS, and NINO 3.4 SST during 1980–2015 CE (Common Era); and we then quantitatively reconstructed sea-level at an annual resolution based on the coral δ18O in the SCS. The results show that the sea-level fell slightly (−0.73 ± 0.27 mm/yr) during 1850–1900 CE; then has continuously risen (1.31 ± 0.06 mm/yr) with a total increase of 152 ± 7 mm from 1900 to 2015 CE. On the inter-annual timescale, ENSO by mediating the overflow effect of seawater in the Western Pacific Warm Pool and the location of storm genesis in the western Pacific, indirectly affects sea-level, rainfall and SSS, which is finally reflected in changes in coral δ18O in the SCS. On the long-term timescale, especially since the 1900s, the gradual increase in SST and glaciers and ice sheets meltwater injected into the ocean due to the continuous warming mainly caused by human activities has not only promoted the rise of sea-level, but also caused a gradual negative bias of δ18O seawater (i.e. a gradual decrease of SSS), these processes are faithfully recorded by coral δ18O. Compared with SST, SSS or δ18O seawater may play a more important role in promoting the negative bias of coral δ18O in the SCS. Our study not only provides a better understanding of sea-level history and relationship mechanism around the SCS during 1850–2015 CE, but also may have the potential to provide a valuable proxy for the accurate quantitative reconstruction of sea-level at an annual resolution over a longer time scale for recent past periods. • On the interannual timescale, ENSO is the main driver of coral δ18O via its indirect effects on seawater δ18O in the SCS • On the long-term timescale, SST and injection of meltwater are the main driver of changes in coral δ18O and sea-level • Both SSS and SST are bridges between coral δ18O and sea-level • Coral δ18O is an ideal proxy to indicate sea-level, which has risen by 152 ± 7 mm in total from 1900 to 2015 CE in the SCS [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and sea-level rise (SLR) induced by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can cause coral bleaching, death, and submergence of the world's coral reefs. Adopting the GIS and RS methods, we modeled how these two stressors combine to influence the future growth of the atolls and table reefs of three archipelagoes in the South China Sea (SCS), based on geomorphic and ecological zones. A large-scale survey of the coral communities in Xisha Islands in 2014, Dongsha Islands in 2014–2016 and Nansha Islands in 2007 provided zone-specific process datasets on the range of reef accretion rates. Sea surface temperature and extreme (minimum and maximum) SLR data above 1985–2005 levels by 2100 in the SCS were derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model projected that: (1) the Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands may have a better growth status, because the reef flat biotic sparse zone may be recolonized with hard coral and become a biotic dense zone; (2) the southern Nansha Islands reefs have a risk of stopping growing due to their earlier annual bleaching years. The increasing of water depths of these reefs is stronger in the RCP with more emissions. Our approach offers insights into the best-case and worst-case impacts of two global environmental pressures on potential future reef growth under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most influential climatic phenomenon on an interannual timescale. Studying the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and ENSO events during typical geological periods is helpful for understanding the trends of ENSO activities in the future, especially under the background of global warming. Here we quantitatively reconstructed a 115-year history of SST and ENSO activity around 282 ka during Marine Isotope Stage 8 (MIS8) by using the growth rate of Porites corals from Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. The results show that the average coral growth rate (6.0 ± 1.0 mm/yr (1σ)) around 282 ka was only 56.1% of the modern average value (10.7 ± 0.9 mm/yr; 1937–2014 CE), and the average SST (26.0 ± 0.3 °C (1σ)) was 0.7 ± 0.4 °C and 1.1 ± 0.4 °C lower than that in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1520–1676 CE; 26.7 ± 0.2 °C) and the present (1937–2014; 27.1 ± 0.2 °C), respectively. The reconstructed results show that there was significant ENSO activity with moderate intensity or above at 282 ka, while the frequency of ENSO activity at that time was lower than that of the LIA and the present. This seems to indicate that the frequency of moderate intensity ENSO activity increases with rising SST. Given the current rapid warming, the future trend of ENSO activities deserves close attention. • The growth rate of Porites coral is a reliable paleoenvironmental proxy. • The coral growth rate at 282 ka was only equivalent to 56.1% of the present. • Coral–SST at 282 ka was 0.7 °C and 1.1 °C lower than the LIA and present, respectively. • The ENSO frequency at 282 ka was lower than the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient enrichment is a widely recognized threat to coastal coral reefs. Yet its impact on open ocean reefs is largely unknown due to the lack of long-term observations at remote sites and the entanglement of various environmental factors affecting coral growth. Here we determined growth rates and the carbonate chemistry of calcifying fluid (CF) of massive corals over the last 550 years at a remote South China Sea reef ecosystem. We show that large growth variations cannot be fully explained by changes in seawater pH or temperature due to the antiphase relationship between growth rate and pH cf as well as small sea surface temperature variations before the 1960s. Instead, coral growth rate decreases proportionally with past seabird populations over the past centuries. We suggest that excess nutrient loads through monsoon pumping and seabird migration played an important role in controlling coral growth at this remote reef ecosystem. Specifically, episodic eutrophication as indicated by a ∼ 3 per mil increase in coral δ13C has depressed coral growth by ∼30% during 15th to 18th centuries, which is comparable to the modern decline. Thus, accurate projections of future coral growth for remote reefs under ongoing human activities and climate change needs to take into account the history of past nutrient inputs into these ecosystems under pre-anthropogenic conditions, which has been overlooked previously due to a lack of historical observations. • Coral cores from an open ocean reef that grew from ∼1450 to present were analyzed. • Temperature affects multi-decadal variability in coral calcifying fluid DIC but not pH. • Reef-water pH modified by monsoon controls calcifying fluid pH and [CO 3 2−] • Eutrophication caused by monsoon and seabirds depressed coral growth during the Little Ice Age • An analog to the responses of corals to the projected rise in anthropogenic nutrient inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]