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A strong cooling event refers to a sharp change in the average temperature over a short period. The rapid change of temperature has important effect on human health and is highly concerned recent years. Based on the observed temperature data set from stations in Southwest China (SWC) from 1979 to 2017, this paper analyses the characteristics of the strong cooling event (SCE). The result shows that SCE occurs with the highest frequency during the time from February to May. Among them, the frequency of SCE in February exhibits an abrupt change before and after 2005 with a significant increase. Further study reveals that the change of SCE frequency in February is associated with the large‐scale background circulation patterns. After 2005, there is a cyclonic circulation anomaly in Northeast Asia and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the Tibet Plateau (TP). This pattern provides a favourable condition for the southward movement of cold air mass, thereby increasing the frequency of SCE in SWC. Furthermore, it is revealed that there is a strong correlation between the variation of SCE frequency in February and sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Northwest Pacific in January before 2005. The cold SST anomaly could favour the occurrence of extreme TD events in SWC through vertical circulation. After 2005, the correlation between SCE and Northwest Pacific SST is not significant. The sea ice in the northern Barents Sea and Kara Sea becomes the dominant impact factor. The abnormally low sea ice concentration is conducive to strengthen the meridional circulation over East Asia, leading to an increasing frequency of SCE in SWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early summer 2020, eastern China was hit by record-breaking Meiyu rainfall. The anomalous western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) played a crucial role in this event. This paper exposes the abnormal features of the WPSH and its related vertical circulations and reveals its dynamical causes in this period, from the perspective of the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC). Analyzing the anomalous spatial patterns of the three stream functions R, H, and W of the horizontal, meridional, and zonal circulations defined by the 3P-DGAC, we discovered that the WPSH described by R at 850 hPa was intensified and westward from the horizontal circulation. For the vertical circulations, the local meridional circulation along East Asia expressed by H manifested an abnormal downdraft at 20° N, which was beneficial to strengthening the WPSH. The zonal circulation in the tropical Pacific represented by W was anomalously far to the west, which was related to the westward extension of the WPSH. Then, to uncover the causes of the anomalous WPSH from the dynamics, we used the vorticity equation based on the 3P-DGAC and found that the negative relative vorticity advection anomaly over the western Pacific played a key role in this event. Due to the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent (MC), local vertical circulations at low latitudes were significantly activated. The intense local meridional circulation along East Asia carried the relative vorticity from the MC to the western Pacific and strengthened the WPSH. The ascending branch of the zonal circulation in the tropical Pacific moved westward, which may favor the westward extension of the WPSH. This study represents a promising step in revealing the three-dimensional (3D) structure and internal dynamics of anomalous WPSH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and withdrawal have critical impacts on the climate of East Asia. However, using different reanalysis data may lead to the uncertainty of the SCSSM. This study uses reanalysis datasets including JRA‐55, ERA5, NCEP‐NCAR NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐DOE NCEP‐2 to calculate onset and withdrawal dates and index of SCSSM from 1991 to 2020, analyses the uncertainty and figures out the possible reasons. Results reveal that the four reanalysis datasets have obvious uncertainty in calculating the withdrawal date of SCSSM, with the deviation being up to 3.4 pentads. Further analysis shows that large differences in thermal conditions and lead to the uncertainties. From the perspective of precipitation, Greater uncertainty exists in the relationship between monsoon retreat and September–October precipitation, NCEP1 and NCEP2 datasets show weak correlation in southern China and Indonesia. Moreover, the uncertainty can be also found in the correlations of SCSSM with global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. JRA‐55 and ERA5 show a strong correlation of with SST in several areas, and exhibit a distinct Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode with monsoon onset, while NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐2 have a weaker correlation with SST anomalies than JRA‐55 or ERA5. Comparing multiple factors comprehensively, this paper concludes that JRA‐55 may be more representative in the monsoon study, followed by ERA data. In short, depending on the specific research questions, researchers can choose appropriate data sources to study the SCSSM based on the different aspects and the uncertainty also deserve our special attention when selecting the reanalysis datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the synergistic effect of the preceding winter positive Northern Hemisphere annular mode (pNAM) and spring negative tropical North Atlantic (nTNA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on spring extreme cold events in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia (MHEA) is investigated. The results show that the co-occurrence of the two factors is unfavorable for extreme cold events during spring in the MHEA via the snow cover and atmospheric bridges. Over the Atlantic, the spring nTNA SSTA can lead to an atmospheric response that is similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation, which enhances the persistence of the pNAM and in turn amplifies the negative spring Eurasian snow cover extent (EASCE) anomaly caused by the preceding winter pNAM. Meanwhile, the spring EASCE is closely related to the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone. In addition to storing its signal in the spring EASCE, the spring nTNA SSTA can also lead to the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone via the eastward Rossby wave train. The evidence shows that the Rossby wave energy can propagate eastward to the MHEA as a result of the enhanced negative spring EASCE anomaly and Rossby wave induced by the spring nTNA SSTA, and the two factors have an obvious synergistic effect on the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone. This anomalous MHEA anticyclone becomes a barrier that can hinder the intrusion of cold air from the polar region and can increase the thickness of the atmospheric layer. The anomalous sinking motion of the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone can also lead to an increase in net radiation received at the surface and increase the air temperature through the vertical motion of air. The southerly wind over the west side of the spring MHEA anomalous anticyclone leads to horizontal warm advection. All of the above processes favor an increase in air temperature and dampen extreme cold events, implying the synergistic effect of the preceding winter pNAM and spring nTNA SSTA on spring extreme cold events in the MHEA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the East Asian (EA) region experienced escalated cost of damages associated with tropical cyclones (TC) during the mature boreal autumn (i.e., September−October). Questions arise whether such increased TC-associated cost of damages are indicative of increasing activity of TCs in EA, particularly during the mature boreal autumn. Here we show evidence of significantly increasing activity of TCs in EA from 1981 to 2019 that is mainly accompanied by an abrupt regime shift in TC passage frequency since 1998. Such trend and shift are robustly linked to the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to its negative phase in the mid-1990s. Characterized by warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific, a negative PDO phase is related to the weakening of the East Asian subtropical jetstream and the westward displacement of the WNP subtropical high, which initiates a favorable steering environment for increased TC passages into the EA region. Contrasting environmental patterns are associated in a positive PDO phase. Considering the prominence of EA in the global economy, our paper contributes additional insights on long-term tropical cyclone risk reduction and management in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 2010 to 2020, Northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperature (SST) experienced the warmest decade ever recorded, manifested in several extreme marine heatwaves, referred to as "warm blob" events, which severely affect marine ecosystems and extreme weather along the west coast of North America. While year-to-year internal climate variability has been suggested as a cause of individual events, the causes of the continuous dramatic NEP SST warming remain elusive. Here, we show that other than the greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, rapid aerosol abatement in China over the period likely plays an important role. Anomalous tropospheric warming induced by declining aerosols in China generated atmospheric teleconnections from East Asia to the NEP, featuring an intensified and southward-shifted Aleutian Low. The associated atmospheric circulation anomaly weakens the climatological westerlies in the NEP and warms the SST there by suppressing the evaporative cooling. The aerosol-induced mean warming of the NEP SST, along with internal climate variability and the GHG-induced warming, made the warm blob events more frequent and intense during 2010 to 2020. As anthropogenic aerosol emissions continue to decrease, there is likely to be an increase in NEP warm blob events, disproportionately large beyond the direct radiative effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indo-Pacific, a vast biogeographic of Earth, is influenced by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Despite its geographical importance, this region has been less studied compared to East Asia and India. Here, we present speleothem records from southern Thailand that cover the last 1500 years, including a hiatus during the Little Ice Age, providing insights into the interactions among climate dynamics, human influences, and ecological responses to climate change. Notably, our records lack the characteristic cold and warm periods observed in other regions, such as the Dark Ages Cold Period and Medieval Warm Period, which may reflect the complexity of the tropical climate system or the region's unique topography. The analysis reveals a link between ENSO multi-decadal variability and hydroclimate conditions in southern Thailand, as evidenced by speleothem δ18O. Furthermore, a comparison between speleothem δ13C and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates significant vegetation changes in the last three decades, corresponding with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and expansion of agricultural land due to human activities during the Current Warm Period. Additionally, our study suggests that an abrupt increase in sea surface temperatures may enhance vegetation growth in the Indo-Pacific by influencing atmospheric circulation and increasing precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike previous studies solely focused on the influences of low or mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events, this paper used the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC), taking the 2018 hot summer in East Asia for example, to quantitatively reveal the dynamic and synergistic effects of low and mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events. By analyzing the anomalous three-dimensional structure of atmospheric circulations in 2018 hot summer, we discovered that the local meridional circulation at low latitudes and zonal circulation at mid-latitudes both produced abnormal downdrafts in East Asia, which were consistent with the anomalous anticyclone in this region. Then, we investigated the relative vorticity advection combined with 3P-DGAC to uncover the dominant circulation patterns, and found the horizontal circulation at mid-latitudes and local meridional circulation at low latitudes were the major contributor to the anomalous anticyclone, accounting for 56% and 44% respectively. This result indicated the 2018 hot summer might be influenced by the synergistic effect of low and mid-latitudes signals. Finally, by investigating sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and mid-latitudes wave train, we considered the tripole-like SSTA pattern in the North Atlantic and positive SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension area (K-KE) as the main causes of horizontal circulation anomalies, and the anomalous meridional circulation was related to the extremely late onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). This study provided a novel way to quantitatively study synergistic effects of low and mid-latitudes signals on regional extreme events. • East Asia was hit by extreme heat event in the summer of 2018. • Horizontal circulations at mid-latitudes and meridional circulations at low latitudes contributed greatly to this event. • The combination of 3P-DGAC and dynamic variables can be applied to the study of dynamic causes of extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A historical atmospheric reanalysis from 1850 to 2015 was performed using an atmospheric general circulation model assimilating surface pressure observations archived in international databases, with perturbed observational sea surface temperatures as a lower boundary condition. Posterior spread during data assimilation provides quantitative information on the uncertainty in the historical reanalysis. The reanalysis reproduces the evolution of the three-dimensional atmosphere close to those of the operational centers. Newly archived surface pressure observations greatly reduced the uncertainties in the present reanalysis over East Asia in the early 20th century. A scheme for assimilating tropical cyclone tracks and intensities was developed. The scheme was superior to the present several reanalyses in reproducing the intensity close to the observations and the positions. The reanalysis provides possible images of atmospheric circulations before reanalyses with full-scale observations become available, and opportunities for investigating extreme events that occurred before World War II. Incorporating dynamical downscaling with a regional model that includes detailed topography and sophisticated physics is an application of historical reanalysis to reveal the details of past extreme events. Some examples of past heavy rainfall events in Japan are shown using a downscaling experiment, together with dense rainfall observations over the Japanese islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades, leading to huge socioeconomic impacts. Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions, their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020, this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers. The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades, while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern, with more severe dryness in northwestern China, Mongolia, North China, South Korea, and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia. Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry (wet) surface in North (Southwestern) China is significantly associated with anomalously high (low) temperature, less (more) precipitation, and reduced (increased) soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring, regulated by an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) and thus reduced (increased) water vapor convergence. The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves, droughts, and compound drought and heat waves (CDHWs) have received extensive attention because of their disastrous impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and society. Here, we computed the heat wave magnitude index (HWMI), drought magnitude index (DMI), and compound drought and heat wave magnitude index (CDHMI) for Yangtze River Valley (YRV) from July to August during 1961–2022. We compared the large-scale atmospheric circulation characteristics of different extreme events based on these indexes. The results show that the positive center with sink motion in East Asia provides a favorable circulation background for heat wave events. Drought events are mainly affected by the zonal wave train dominated by a significant negative anomaly in Siberia and a high-pressure anomaly upstream, and a anticyclonic water vapor with strong divergence over the Yangtze River basin. During CDHW events, both anomalous systems that affect heat waves and droughts appear and strengthen simultaneously. Specifically, in the middle and upper troposphere, the positive height anomaly center in YRV expands abnormally, and the "+–+" wave train over the northern 50° N region of East Asia becomes more obvious. Therefore, the positive anomaly and water vapor anomaly brought by the two circulation patterns at different latitudes are superimposed over the YRV, leading to severe CDHWs. At the same time, the warm positive eddy center and cold negative eddy center in high latitudes exhibit more stable positive pressure features, which are conducive to the persistent development and strengthening of CDHWs. In addition, the anomalous warm sea surface temperature in western Pacific moderating the favorable circulation patterns may also promote the occurrence of CDHWs in the YRV during the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study investigates the characteristics and factors of summer drought variations over Asia during 1950–2020 using 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI03) in July. The leading mode of Asian summer drought variations exhibits a roughly north–south contrasting distribution across 30° N with dominant interannual variability. The interannual variation of the leading mode is associated with both precipitation and temperature. In comparison, the contribution of precipitation is larger in the eastern part of the mid-latitude Asia. The Asian summer drought variations subject to both individual and combined impacts of preceding winter equatorial central-eastern Pacific (ECEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and concurrent North Atlantic (NA) tripole SST anomalies. Preceding ECEP SST anomalies induce anomalous vertical motion and precipitation over the mid-latitude Asia through large-scale divergence and convergence in previous winter and spring. The resulted soil moisture anomalies persist to summer and are conducive to anomalous summer precipitation through evaporation. The accompanying changes in cloud-radiation, surface longwave radiation and sensible heat flux induce temperature and evapotranspiration anomalies. The NA tripole SST anomalies induce anomalous vorticity forcing over the western mid-latitude NA. This contributes to a wave train that propagates from the NA to East Asia and affects wind and vertical motion over the mid-latitude Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the summer North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) has substantial socioeconomic impacts. However, state‐of‐the‐art climate models significantly disagree on the response of the NPSH to anthropogenic warming. Inter‐model spread in NPSH projections originates from models' inconsistency in simulating tropical precipitation changes. This inconsistency in precipitation changes is partly due to inter‐model spread in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes, but it can also occur independently of uncertainty in SST changes. Here, we show that both types of precipitation uncertainty influence the NPSH via the Matsuno‐Gill wave response, but their relative impact varies by region. Through the modulation of low cloud fraction, inter‐model spread of the NPSH can have a further impact on extra‐tropical land surface temperature. The teleconnection between tropical precipitation and the NPSH is examined through a series of numerical experiments. Plain Language Summary: The North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) is a semi‐permanent high‐pressure system located in the subtropical North Pacific. The variability in the summer NPSH has a significant impact on the monsoon and typhoons over East Asia and the hydroclimate of California. However, future projections of the NPSH using state‐of‐the‐art climate models remain highly uncertain. By evaluating how much individual models deviate from the multi‐model mean at different locations, we find four hot spots of high uncertainty in NPSH projections. Our analysis further reveals that the primary source of model variance in changes in the NPSH is tropical precipitation, which can be attributed to both inter‐model SST‐driven and non‐inter‐model SST‐driven factors. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the teleconnection between tropical precipitation and the NPSH is achieved through wave propagation. Key Points: Model spread in the response of the summer North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) to CO2 stems from model spread in simulating tropical processesModel spread in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes modulates the NPSH by influencing tropical precipitationModel spread in tropical precipitation changes independent of model spread in SST changes also adds to the uncertainty of the NPSH response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sustainability of human societies is contingent upon our ability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change on the global environment and humanity. Wise responses to forthcoming environmental alterations require extensive knowledge from historical precedents. However, in coastal East Asia, a region with a long history of agriculture, it is challenging to obtain paleoenvironmental proxy data without anthropogenic disturbances that can be used to assess the impact of late Holocene climate change on local communities. This study introduces a high-resolution multi-proxy sedimentary record from an isolated crater in Jeju Island, Korea, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying mid-to-late Holocene climate change and its impacts on ancient societies. Our findings suggest that hydroclimate changes were predominantly governed by sea surface temperature fluctuations in the western tropical Pacific, with low-frequency variability in solar activity and a decrease in summer insolation identified as primary drivers of temperature change. Moreover, ancient societies on the Korean peninsula were significantly affected by recurring cooling events, including the 2.8 ka event, 2.3 ka event, Late Antique Little Ice Age, maunder minimum, and others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using reanalysis data and simulations, this study revealed a pronounced negative interannual relationship between tropical southern Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian surface air temperature (SAT) during boreal spring (March–May). Results confirm that the March–May TSA–SST anomaly can be considered an independent tropical driver unrelated to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. A possible mechanism linking TSA–SST and East Asian spring SAT involves an atmospheric wave train, energy conversion, and potential vorticity (PV)–θ dynamics. The anomalous TSA–SST induces an anomalous Walker circulation, which initiates a wave train that extracts energy from a westerly jet and propagates toward East Asia. Subject to PV–θ dynamics, the East Asian PV anomaly embedded within this wave train leads to bowed isentropes and resultant notable anomalous East Asian SAT. In particular, the bootstrapping results suggest that TSA–SST anomaly can cause an approximately sevenfold increase in the occurrence probability of extreme East Asian spring SAT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat events happen frequently in East Asia, and may cause great damage to the ecosystem and society. The synergistic effect of the summer positive North Atlantic Oscillation (pNAO) and positive northwest Pacific (pNWP) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the interannual variability of the extreme heat events in the central–eastern China (CEC) is investigated in this study. The two factors act synergistically in strengthening the extreme heat events in the CEC via a series of atmospheric bridges, and the CEC is likely to experience a hotter summer when both the summer pNAO and pNWP SSTA occur. The pNWP SSTA increases the strength of pNAO via the eastward propagating Rossby wave from the western Pacific. The enhanced pNAO induces a stronger eastward Rossby wave propagation across the Eurasian continent, and leads to a strong anomalous anticyclone over the CEC. The significantly increased atmosphere thickness increases the air temperature of the layer, and favors the extreme heat events in the CEC. Besides, the pNWP SSTA also has adjacent effect on the atmospheric circulation over the CEC, which could lead to a positive geopotential height anomaly. Therefore, the summer pNAO and pNWP SSTA act synergistically in influencing the atmospheric circulation over the CEC, and thereby significantly increase the extreme heat events in the CEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In the context of global climate change, recent studies indicate a poleward migration trend of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), while little attention has been paid to the TC cyclolysis (hereafter Lysis). With respect to two different datasets, this study identifies the poleward migration of the annual-mean latitude of TC Lysis during 1979-2018, being more significant for the intensified TCs, although this trend is suppressed by the reduction in the TC frequency over the sea. It is found that the TC migration is more like a poleward translation of the overall movement rather than the expansion of a specific phase's distance span. Subsequently, the trends of several environmental parameters related to TC development are also analyzed. The large-scale sea surface temperature warming leads to the increase of potential intensity and enhances the possibility of TC poleward migration. Through controlling the TC formation in the eastern WNP tropics, the variations of vertical wind shear and horizontal winds affect TC Lysis latitude, facilitate the TC development environment around East Asia offshore and island chain areas, and steer TCs poleward migration through the southerly wind anomalies in the area north of 308N. Regarding the cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, their influence on TC Lysis latitude is mainly by adjusting the numbers of TCs rather than directly interfering with the TC movement process. The present results indicate that the northern WNP coastal region will also become a TC-prone area in the future, which needs to be treated with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predictability and variability of extratropical climate are largely associated with tropical forcing through various teleconnections. The East Asia–Pacific/Pacific-Japan (EAP/PJ) teleconnection is one of the most important factors affecting the summer climate in East Asia. In this work, we confirm the weakening relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the following summer PJ teleconnection after the late 1990s and diagnose the possible causes. The results show that compared with that of in 1981–1998, ENSO is less conducive to the formation of anomalous anticyclones in the following summer in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and the northward propagating Rossby wave train from latitudes of NWP in 2000–2017, resulting in a weaker summer PJ teleconnection. Meanwhile, variation of ENSO feature since 2000 with a suppressed variability leads to a weakened response in the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring and summer. The reduced sea surface temperature response in the tropical Indian Ocean suppresses the excitation of eastward-propagating Kelvin waves and declines the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean, which is unfavorable for generating anomalies in the NWP and motivating strong PJ teleconnection in meridional direction. Thus, the weakening relationship of ENSO-PJ after late 1990s is the result of the weakened ENSO's impact on the formation of anticyclones in the following summer in NWP and the declined Indian Ocean capacitor effect on motivating meridionals wave train over East Asia and NWP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the East Asian summer monsoon, extreme precipitation occurred frequently over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), leading to flooding and secondary disasters. Therefore, understanding the physical mechanism and seeking predictability sources of extreme precipitation in the YRB are of scientific and practical importance. The present study examines the independent and compound impacts of leading sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean on summer extreme precipitation days (EPDs) over the YRB. The Indian Ocean basin-wide uniform SST mode (the Indian Ocean Basin Mode) influences the EPDs over the YRB by inducing a Kelvin wave response and the Pacific–Japan pattern, whereas the two leading SST modes of the North Atlantic Ocean show different meridional tripole patterns with different climate impacts on East Asia. The North Atlantic SST tripole southern mode (NATS) induces quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains over mid-latitude Eurasia and the tropical waves that influence the EPDs in the YRB. The North Atlantic SST tripole northern mode (NATN) impacts the circulation anomaly over Northeast Asia through inducing different Eurasian quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains. When the IOBM and the NATS are both in the positive phase, enhanced EPDs occur over the YRB. On the one hand, the IOBM induces a Kelvin wave response, which strengthens the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). On the other hand, the NATS stimulates the mid-latitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves and results in the Northeast Asia anomalous cyclone (NEAC). The warm, moist air over the northwestern flank of the WNPAC and the cold, dry air over the southern flank of the NEAC converge in the YRB, leading to more EPDs in the region. When the IOBM and the NATN are out of phase, the Kelvin wave response in terms of the WNPAC induced by the IOBM warming is modulated by the negative phase of the NATN via quasi-stationary Rossby wave trains over mid-latitude Eurasia, resulting in more EPDs in the YRB. Based on the compound effect of different SST modes in the two ocean basins, the year-to-year EPDs over the YRB can be reconstructed reasonably well, which provides useful predictability sources for the seasonal prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a continuous and relatively stable rainy period every spring in southern China (SC). This spring precipitation process is a unique weather and climate phenomenon in East Asia. Previously, the variation characteristics and associated mechanisms of this precipitation process have been mostly discussed from the perspective of seasonal mean. Based on the observed and reanalysis datasets from 1982 to 2021, this study investigates the diversity of the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC, and focuses on the potential influence of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results show that the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC have significant differences, and the correlations between each two months are very weak. All the interannual variations of precipitation in three months are related to a similar western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC), and the southwesterlies at the western flank of WNPAC bring abundant water vapor for the precipitation in SC. However, the WNPAC is influenced by tropical SST anomalies in different regions each month. The interannual variation of precipitation in March in SC is mainly influenced by the signal of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the associated SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific regulate the WNPAC through the Pacific-East Asia (PEA) teleconnection. In contrast, the WNPAC associated with the interannual variation of precipitation in April can be affected by the SST anomalies in the northwestern equatorial Pacific through a thermally induced Rossby wave response. The interannual variation of precipitation in May is regulated by the SST anomalies around the western Maritime Continent, which stimulates the development of low-level anomalous anticyclones over the South China Sea and east of the Philippine Sea by driving anomalous meridional vertical circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has been regarded as one of the most important interdecadal factors to the interdecadal summer precipitation in eastern China, which, however, cannot keep a consistent pattern during the same positive or negative PDO phase. Because sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies vary along with PDO evolvement, the PDO impacts are investigated in terms of developing and decaying stages of its positive and negative phases, respectively. It is found that the SST cooling in mid-latitude North Pacific and SST warming in off-equator central-eastern Pacific are generally intensified from the developing stage to the decaying stage for positive PDO phase, and vice versa. Particularly, during the decaying stage of positive (negative) PDO phase, the enhanced SST warming (cooling) in northeastern tropical Pacific triggers a stronger (weaker) large-scale Walker circulation and suppresses (enhances) the convective activities in western tropical Pacific, which favors a meridional wave train like East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia. Meanwhile, the westward extended SST cooling (warming) in mid-latitude North Pacific together with the SST warming (cooling) to its south significantly increases (decreases) the meridional SST gradient and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity, conductive to the strengthened (weakened) and southward (northward) shifted East Asian subtropical westerly jet as well as an equivalent barotropic "cold trough" in western North Pacific. Because of such tropical and extratropical dynamical processes, a meridional tripole pattern of precipitation anomalies occurs in eastern China which dominates the PDO impact in the same phase and distinctly different from the dipole pattern during the developing stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) of China underwent normal precipitation during the classical Meiyu period in June–July but suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods in August. The present study revealed that the extreme heavy precipitation anomalies over the YHRB region were closely related to the combined effect of the strong western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) and East Asian middle–high latitude circulation anomalies in August 2021. Moreover, the background of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was a strong eastern-Pacific La Niña event that rapidly decayed in spring and a second La Niña emerged in late summer, accompanied by a weak tropical Indian Ocean warming and a strong tropical Atlantic warming in summer. The rapidly decaying La Niña event and the weak tropical Indian Ocean warming alone seem to be insufficient to induce the strong WNPAC in August 2021. Observational evidence and numerical experiments suggest that the rapid tropical Atlantic warming from late spring to summer observably contributed to the enhancement and westward shift of the WNPAC, and the cold SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the second La Niña event also provided favorable conditions for a strong WNPAC in August 2021. Overall, rapid tropical Atlantic warming and the development of the second La Niña contributed to the strong WNPAC in August 2021, while the maintenance mechanism of the East Asian middle–high latitude circulation anomalies that controlled cold air activity remains unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different evolutionary patterns of the East Asian trough (EAT) anomaly could cause different climate patterns over East Asia. In this study, the leading mode of month-to-month variation in winter (December–January–February) EAT during 1979/80–2018/19 is investigated using the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF). The first EEOF mode (EEOF1) shows a persistent anomalous EAT pattern throughout the three winter months, which results in persistent air temperature anomalies over East Asia. Mechanism analyses indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) negatively relates to the EEOF1, but its significant influence on the EAT is only in December. In contrast, a dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Eastern North Atlantic-Eastern Mediterranean Sea closely links with the EAT EEOF1. Further analyses indicate that the connection of the dipole SST pattern with the EAT EEOF1 depends on its persistence. When there is positive feedback between the local atmosphere and sea, the dipole SST pattern is well-sustained in the three winter months and further leads to a persistent EAT anomaly by exciting the Rossby wave train over mid-latitude Eurasia. Numerical simulations by the linear baroclinic model further validate the role of dipole SST pattern-related diabatic and vorticity forcing in air-sea interactions. In contrast, in the SST poorly-sustained years, the dipole SST pattern has a weak connection with the EAT EEOF1. Based on the aforementioned analysis, we propose a combined index using the dipole SST pattern and anomalous Northeast Atlantic cyclone in December, which could provide valuable information to predict the dipole SST pattern persistence and EAT EEOF1 in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer (July and August) of 2022, unprecedented heat wave occurred along the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) over East Asia while unprecedented flood occurred over western South Asia (WSA), which are located on the eastern and western sides of Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, by analyzing the interannual variability based on observational and reanalysis data, we show evidences that the anomalous zonal flow over subtropical Tibetan Plateau (TP) explains a major fraction the extreme events occurred in 2022. As isentropic surfaces incline eastward (westward) with altitude on the eastern (western) side of the warm center over TP in summer, anomalous easterly (westerly) flow in upper troposphere generates anomalous descent (ascent) on the eastern side of TP and anomalous ascent (descent) on the western side of TP via isentropic gliding. The anomalous easterly flow is extremely strong to reverse the climatological westerly flow over subtropical TP in 1994, 2006, 2013 and 2022. The easterly flow in 2022 is the strongest since 1979, and it generates unprecedented descent (ascent) anomaly on the eastern (western) side of TP, leading to extreme heat wave over YRV and extreme flood over WSA in 2022. The anomalously strong easterly flow over subtropical TP in 2022 is dominated by atmospheric internal variability related to mid-latitude wave train, while the cold sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian Ocean increases the probability of a reversed zonal flow over TP by reducing the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against the backdrop of global warming, the Eurasian continent and its surrounding areas have experienced ununiform warming in recent decades. Variations in the meridional thermal contrast (MTC) in East Asia and its adjacent regions have a critical influence on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM); therefore, its forcings were analyzed in this study. The results show that the MTC in East Asia and the surrounding regions showed significant decadal changes during the interval 1960–2014, with a decadal strengthening in the late 1970s and a decadal weakening in the late 1990s. Further investigation showed that internal variability was the dominant control on these two decadal changes of MTC, accounting for 135% and 78.5% of the two observed changes in the 1970s and 1990s, respectively. Based on pacemaker experiments and a method that reconstructs decadal changes in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), we found that a positive phase of the IPO tends to cause cooling in the low latitudes and warming in the mid–high latitudes and that a negative phase of the IPO tends to cause warming in the low latitudes and cooling in the mid–high latitudes, which in turn can explain 54.4% and 35.8% of the two internally generated decadal changes in the MTC, respectively. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), when in the same phase as the IPO, exhibits an opposing pattern of surface air temperature. This only had a significant influence in the late 1990s, where it explained 37.9% of the internally generated decadal changes in the MTC. Our findings highlight that internal variability, especially that relating to the IPO and the AMO, should be considered when predicting future changes in thermal conditions in East Asia and its adjacent regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of boreal winter–peaked La Niña on the following-summer precipitation in East Asia through intermediate sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies playing the role of relay in observation and numerical models. There are widespread dry conditions in both North and South China and wet conditions in coastal areas of central and eastern China. Such a pattern is mainly attributed to an anomalous low pressure over the western tropical Pacific and an anomalous anticyclone over northeast Asia. It is found that the delayed impact of La Niña on the East Asian climate is operated through intermediate SST anomalies—the Z-shape cold SST anomalies in the tropical North Pacific. There might be three ways for the SST anomalies to operate. First, they produce tropical atmospheric perturbations that can penetrate into the subtropical jet through the westerly trough over the northeast subtropical Pacific, the wave train being then excited along the jet. Second, perturbations created through the monsoon trough over the western Pacific can directly stimulate northward-propagating Rossby waves along the East Asian coast, mainly at low level. And third, perturbations over the tropical Atlantic–northwest Africa can also trigger downstream propagating waves along the subtropical jet. The observation effects of the intermediate SST anomalies and their possible impact mechanisms on atmospheric circulation are largely reproduced within numerical simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autumn precipitation in the central region of China (APCC) can considerably influence on agricultural production and human livelihood. With reanalysis data from 1979 to 2020, it revealed that APCC is significantly affected by the second mode of the meridional wind field at 200 hPa over the Eurasian continent on the interannual scale, which featured a quasi‐barotropic "+‐+" wave‐like pattern from Europe to China (EC pattern) in extratropical zone. When the EC pattern is in a positive phase, central China lags behind the downstream positive geopotential height (anticyclone) anomaly. In this context, the transport of moisture from the south and east is enhanced and the advancement of the southerly monsoon is blocked, providing sufficient water vapor to support the occurrence of APCC. Further diagnosis revealed that local ascending motion is strengthened owing to the warm advection induced by anomalous southerly and positive vorticity advection associated with the anomalous anticyclone over East Asia. Additionally, wave flux analysis and model simulation suggest that the EC pattern results from the propagation of stationary Rossby wave, which could be excited by dipole sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. These discoveries will contribute to improving the predictability of APCC. Plain Language Summary: The interannual variability of autumn precipitation in central China (APCC) is largely affected by a wave train over the Eurasian continent (EC pattern), which can influence the local moisture and dynamic uplift conditions by an anomalous anticyclone over East Asia. The North Atlantic dipole sea surface temperatur anomalies play an important role in the prediction of APCC, and could stimulate an extratropical teleconnection to shape the EC pattern over the Eurasian continent, as confirmed in the linear baroclinic model. Key Points: The autumn rainfall in central China is related to the second mode of V200 (EOF2) over the Eurasian continent on interannual timescaleEOF2 features in a "+‐+" wave‐like pattern, resulting in an anticyclone anomaly over East Asia in its positive phaseExtratropical EOF2 pattern wave train could be excited by the North Atlantic dipole sea surface temperature anomaly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern, called the Asia–Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension–North America (AKNA) pattern, is identified over the pan–North Pacific region (85°E–85°W, 25°–65°N) based on NCEP reanalysis data. The AKNA pattern is likely to influence the climate of the extratropical area of Asia and North America via two SAT dipoles and has a significant impact on the wintertime extremely cold weather along the eastern coastal regions of East Asia. Simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that wintertime sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension (KOE) region can force an equivalent barotropic atmospheric ridge downstream and weaken the Siberian high and Alaska atmospheric ridge, resulting in the formation of the AKNA pattern. This circulation pattern tends to intensify the midlatitude (40°–60°N) westerlies over East Asia, which inhibits the southward invasion of the cold air into southern East Asia. Further diagnostic analysis indicates that the KOE SSTa can modulate the variation of storm track and westerlies by affecting baroclinic instability and eddy–mean flow interaction. Moreover, the KOE SSTa can provide a favorable environment for the development of the local atmospheric ascending motion and secondary circulation across the KOE SSTa, thereby affecting variability of the free atmosphere. Significance Statement: This study aims to build a connection between the wintertime extratropical climate and the variation of the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. This work isolated a new wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) pattern over mid–high-latitude Asia and North America, which explains a considerable proportion of cold extremes over the eastern regions of East Asia. The reanalysis data and model simulations indicate that the temporal variability of the SAT pattern is influenced by the change of sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio and Oyashio Extension. These findings emphasize the important role of midlatitude air–sea interaction in the modulation of the mid–high-latitude climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemispheric summer monsoons were more intense during the mid-Holocene (MH ~ 6000 years ago) and coincided with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to the pre-industrial (PI) climate. Ancient civilizations in the Indus valley, Mesopotamia, and Egypt appear to have flourished during this period, thanks to abundant water availability. This study exploits a high-resolution variable grid global atmosphere model to understand the role of orbital forcing and ocean surface conditions in strengthening the monsoons and shifting the ITCZ northward over Africa, India, and East Asia during the MH. The combined impact of orbital forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions led to a change in monsoon rainfall of around 42, 30, 21, and 41% over Africa, East Asia, India, and northwest India (NWI) relative to the PI conditions. Changes in orbital parameters alone account for more than 36 and 26% of total rainfall increases in Africa and East Asia. Over the Indian subcontinent, the strengthening of monsoon was primarily a combined effect of SST and orbital forcing. In contrast, the SST boundary condition alone could explain the 39% of rainfall increase over NWI, where the Indus valley civilization once existed. Through moisture budget analysis, the study further illustrates the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors responsible for the changes in monsoon precipitation. The enhanced monsoon resulted in a northward shift of ITCZ by around 3°N, 1.9°N, and 2.5°N over Africa, East Asia, and India, respectively, compared to its PI position. Analogous to the precipitation changes, orbital forcing mostly mediated ITCZ changes across Africa and East Asia, but the combined impact of orbital forcing and SST was responsible for the changes over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the background of long‐term global warming, the northern hemisphere experienced an extremely hot summer in 2022 with the hottest on record for Europe and China, and the second‐hottest for North America and Asia. The hot summer concurred with a triple‐dip La Niña in the tropical Pacific. Given the extremity of the hot summer in East Asia in 2022, in this work, we examine the associated atmospheric circulation and assess the real‐time predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). Also, we identify the contributions of long‐term warming trends, sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, and an atmospheric feedback to the hot summer. The hot summer in East Asia in 2022 is due to the extremely strong and westward expanded western Pacific subtropical high. That leads to cloud cover reduction and increases in net downward shortwave radiation at the surface, and further strengthens the positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies. In contrast, the seasonal‐interannual variation of SST has a minor impact. Thus, the hot summer is mainly associated with the long‐term trend and amplified by the positive feedback among the SAT, cloud cover, and net downward shortwave radiation. NMME with the initial conditions in May 2022 predicts positive SAT anomalies in most regions of East Asia, but does not capture the observed spatial distribution pattern and amplitudes. The failure implies the challenge of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in predicting such extreme events. Plain Language Summary: In the context of global warming, the northern hemisphere experienced an extremely hot summer in 2022 with the hottest on record for Europe and China. The hot summer concurred with a triple‐dip La Niña in the tropical Pacific during 2020–2023. In this work, we examine the causes and assess the real‐time predictions and predictability of the hot summer in East Asia. The hot summer in 2022 is due to the extremely strong and westward expanded western Pacific subtropical high. For the averages in the main hot summer region in East Asia in 2022, the largest contribution is from the long‐term trend (∼50%), and for the rest 50%, half of them is from the feedback among atmospheric circulation‐surface air temperature‐cloud cover‐net downward shortwave radiation. In contrast, the seasonal‐interannual components of the global sea surface temperatures play a secondary role. Multi‐model ensemble with the initial conditions in May 2022 predicts positive surface air temperature anomalies in most regions of East Asia, especially in August. However, compared with the observations, both the spatial distribution pattern of surface air temperature anomalies and their amplitudes have distinguished biases in the North American Multimodel Ensemble predictions. The failure implies the challenge of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in predicting such extreme events. Key Points: The hot summer in East Asia in 2022 is due to the extremely strong and westward expanded western Pacific subtropical highThe hot summer is caused by the long‐term trend and amplified by positive feedback among the surface air temperature (SAT), cloud, and downward shortwave radiationNorth American Multi‐model Ensemble does not capture the observed spatial distribution pattern and amplitudes of SAT anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid‐latitudes, the strongly meandering jet stream has contributed to worldwide weather patterns and climate variations. However, the shape variations of the jet and its climatic impacts remain unclear. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit the high‐value wind speeds and identified the location, shape, and strength variations of the winter‐averaged North Pacific jet (NPJ). Particularly, this method has the advantage of objectively detecting the shape variations of the NPJ, including the area and orientation. Focused on the NPJ shape, the area and orientation variations are generally out‐of‐phase, leading to a large‐straight jet and a small‐tilted jet. The shape variation of the NPJ is highly linked to the variations in both mean and extreme temperatures in winter over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, northern East Asia and northern North America frequently suffer from warm and cold events in winter, respectively, while associated with the large‐straight NPJ, the patterns are almost opposite but with an asymmetric distribution to the small‐tilted NPJ. The distribution of the 300 hPa wind speed anomalies shows a spatial‐asymmetric feature at the exit and entrance of the NPJ. Large positive (negative) anomalies and the poleward (equatorward) shift at the NPJ exit and locations downstream (170°E−140°W) act in combination on the formation and maintenance of the large‐straight (small‐tilted) jet, which may be strongly connected with the sea surface temperature variations and synoptic‐scale transient eddy activities there. Our findings would be helpful in providing potential indicators of temperature variations. Plain Language Summary: The shape of the upper‐level jet stream is closely associated with weather and climate variations, which is not clearly understood yet. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit high‐value wind speeds and identify the location, shape, and strength variations of the North Pacific jet (NPJ). This method has the advantage of objectively detecting characteristics of the jet stream, particularly for shape variations. The shape variations of the NPJ are closely linked to the variations both in winter mean and extreme temperature, particularly over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, warm events would more frequently occur in the northern part of East Asia, while cold events would easily affect northern North America. Sea surface temperature anomalies and the increased presence of surface high and low‐pressure systems around the jet exit region may have a strong connection with the different structures of the NPJ. Our findings would be helpful in providing a potential indicator of temperature variations. Key Points: An ellipse‐fitting technique has been introduced to detect the jet stream automatically and objectivelyPrimary combinations of the North Pacific jet's (NPJ's) shape include a large‐straight and small‐tilted jetVariations in the NPJ's shape are highly linked to out‐of‐phase variations in temperature extremes over East Asia and North America [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ENSO shows great diversity in temporal evolution, exerting different climatic impacts on the global scale. Previous studies suggest that summer ENSOs can be classified into two types with different evolutions: "continuing ENSOs" persist from the previous winter and "emerging ENSOs" newly develop from late spring. In this study, we define two indices for continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August, which reflects the distinct characteristics of the two types of ENSO well. The two types of ENSO dominate the two leading modes of the SST variability in the tropical Indo–western Pacific (TIWP) and the related Asian summer monsoon anomalies. During continuing ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show positive anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific and negative ones in the New Guinea region. The warm Kelvin wave forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming propagates into the tropical western Pacific, exciting the meridional East Asia–Pacific/Pacific–Japan pattern and causing a dipole precipitation pattern in East Asia. During emerging ENSOs, the related TIWP SST anomalies show negative anomalies in the warm pool and positive ones in the western Indian Ocean. The negative SST anomalies in the warm pool induce a westward equatorial Rossby wave conducive to the suppression of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the Matsuno–Gill response to the warm pool cooling leads to negative anomalies in East Asian summer rainfall. This mechanism can be simulated well in the CMIP6 and Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere experiments. Significance Statement: ENSO displays diversity in its amplitude, spatial pattern, temporal evolution, and impact. Although previous studies have systematically investigated the diversity of ENSO spatial locations, there are few studies on the diversity of ENSO evolution and the impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. Here, we define two indices for so-called continuing and emerging ENSOs via the linear combination of the two leading modes of the evolutionary anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the prior September to August. Then, we reveal that the two leading modes of the tropical Indo–western Pacific SST variability are dominated by the two types of ENSO, respectively, and act as a bridge via which the two types of ENSO can exert different impacts on the Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs in the Central Indo-Pacific region comprise some of the most diverse and yet threatened marine habitats. While reef monitoring has grown throughout the region in recent years, studies of coral reef benthic cover remain limited in spatial and temporal scales. Here, we analysed 24,365 reef surveys performed over 37 years at 1972 sites throughout East Asia by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network using Bayesian approaches. Our results show that overall coral cover at surveyed reefs has not declined as suggested in previous studies and compared to reef regions like the Caribbean. Concurrently, macroalgal cover has not increased, with no indications of phase shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on reefs. Yet, models incorporating socio-economic and environmental variables reveal negative associations of coral cover with coastal urbanisation and sea surface temperature. The diversity of reef assemblages may have mitigated cover declines thus far, but climate change could threaten reef resilience. We recommend prioritisation of regionally coordinated, locally collaborative long-term studies for better contextualisation of monitoring data and analyses, which are essential for achieving reef conservation goals. An overview of coral reefs across East and Southeast Asia spanning >24,000 surveys in almost 2,000 sites finds that coral and macroalgal cover are surprisingly stable through time, though correlated environmental variables reveal hidden impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we developed a regional coupled model for the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asian region. The atmospheric/oceanic component of the coupled model was the Weather Research and Forecasting and the Regional Ocean Modeling System, coupled through the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupler version 7 (CPL7). An evaluation is provided through the simulation of the climatology and interannual variability of the summer monsoon climate from 1982 to 2015. The coupled model is also compared with a solely atmospheric run, which is driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) as the surface boundary. The results show that the coupled model has good capability in modeling the climate in the WNP and East Asian domain, including the climatology of summer precipitation and circulation, the subseasonal (month‐to‐month) variation in the western Pacific subtropical high and associated precipitation, and the seasonal cycle of the East Asian rain belt. One merit of this model is its ability to simulate the northward and eastward shift from early to late summer. With respect to the interannual variability, the model captures the spatial pattern of the leading mode of summer precipitation, with a north–south dipole mode in the studied region. The model also reproduces the larger SST variability in the northern part of this region. The temporal correlation coefficient between the coupled simulation and observation was 0.70 for the precipitation and 0.53 for the SST leading mode. The coupled model also captures the precipitation–SST relationship, which results from reasonably considering the air–sea coupling processes in the coupled run. Plain Language Summary: Due to the resolution of global models is relatively coarse and cannot describe the regional features, especially in the monsoon regions, regional climate model is an essential solution for regional climate simulation and projection. Compared with atmospheric alone model which is driven by prescribed sea surface temperature, regional air‐sea coupled model can describe reasonably the air‐sea coupling processes and has better performance. In this study, an regional coupled model is developed based on the Community Earth System Model coupler version 7 framework. Based on our analysis, the regional coupled model reasonably reproduced most key characteristics in the East Asian monsoon region. In addition to being used in regional climate simulation and projection, it can also be conveniently coupled with global models through the coupler 7. Thus with this useful tool in future we can develop global‐regional two‐way coupling simulation system for climate predictions and projections. Key Points: A regional coupled model is developed for East Asia and western North Pacific region based on Community Earth System Model frameworkClimatology and interannual variability of the summer monsoon climate have been evaluatedThe model can well capture the climatological northward and eastward movements of the western Pacific subtropical high from June to August [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggested that fast‐decay El Niño events are more favorable in generating the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in the decaying summer. However, we found that this is not the case for all fast‐decay El Niño events. By comparing two groups of fast‐decay El Niño events with significant and insignificant WNPAC in the following summer, we found that the westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and the subtropical central‐north Pacific cold SSTA play important roles in the generation and intensification of the WNPAC during decaying summer. Further analyses indicated that the internal atmospheric mode—North Pacific Oscillation during boreal spring can affect the formation of the cold SSTA over the subtropical central‐north Pacific and the westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold SSTA during summer. Additional effects of tropical Indian and Atlantic forcing on the maintenance of the WNPAC are also shown. Plain Language Summary: The boreal summer western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) is an important low‐level circulation over the western Pacific, which can have great impacts on the East Asia climate. Previous studies pointed out that the fast‐decay El Niño events are favorable in inducing the WNPAC in the decaying summer. However, our observational and modeling results suggested that not all the fast‐decay El Niño events can generate WNPAC in the decaying summer. By dividing fast‐decay El Niño events into two groups, one with significant WNPAC in the following summer and the other without, we found that the difference in the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) westward extension, the subtropical central‐northern Pacific cold SSTA and the tropical Indian/Atlantic warm SSTA are important in causing the diverse response of the WNPAC to the fast‐decay El Niño events during decaying summer. Further analyses indicated that the internal atmospheric mode—North Pacific Oscillation during boreal spring can affect the cold SSTA over the subtropical central‐north Pacific and the westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold SSTA during boreal summer. The tropical Indian and Atlantic warming, can also directly influence the WNPAC intensity or feedback to the equatorial and subtropical Pacific cooling to influence the WNPAC. Key Points: Fast‐decay El Niño is more favorable in generating western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in the decaying summer but this is not the case for all fast‐decay El NiñoEquatorial Pacific, subtropical Pacific cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and tropical Indian/Atlantic warm SSTA in summer are key to the diverse response of WNPACThe spring North Pacific Oscillation is important in causing the diverse equatorial and subtropical Pacific cold SSTA forcing in summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer climate displays a marked change after the late 1990s. This is principally due to a weakening of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern that was a dominant driver of precipitation variability over East Asia. Nevertheless, western Japan has frequently experienced heavy rainfall events over the past several years. Atmospheric reanalysis and observational datasets are used to investigate summer precipitation variability over East Asia in a view of interdecadal changes from 1979 to 2020. East Asian summer precipitation has increased the most in Japan, especially over and around the Southwest Islands in southern Japan, where cumulus convection has been more dominant for the characteristic of precipitation variability including mei-yu–baiu rainfall than frontal structure since the mid-2000s. Atmospheric analysis in vertical structures and convective instability indicates that moist instability is neutralized by cumulus convection over the southern East China Sea and off the Pacific coast of Japan, where recent warming in sea surface temperature (SST) along the Kuroshio exceeds the SST threshold for convection. This decadal shift in precipitation variability has a close relationship with the second precipitation mode over East Asia, which has taken the place of the PJ pattern as a leading driver of precipitation variability over western Japan in the past decade. The enhanced cumulus convection is enabled to act as a forcing mechanism for the Rossby wave train from East Asia toward North America along the westerly jet or for the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern, which possibly favors a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest areas of North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific‐Japan (PJ) pattern is the dominant teleconnection over East Asia, closely related to the summer precipitation on various time scales. However, studies on the connection between the interdecadal variations of the PJ pattern and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are still limited. This study indicates that the relationship between the PJ pattern and ENSO presents a pronounced interdecadal change around 1997/1998. The PJ pattern shows a baroclinic structure over the northwest Pacific and a barotropic structure near Japan during 1979–1997, while its baroclinic structure in the tropics weakens remarkably during 1998–2021, with a southward shift of its midlatitude barotropic structure. As a result, the connection between the PJ pattern and summer precipitation over East Asia exhibits an interdecadal transition in the late 1990s. In the slow La Niña decaying summer of 1979–1997, the cold SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) excite an eastward‐propagating Kelvin wave that enhances convection over the northwest Pacific, resulting in the formation of the PJ pattern. In contrast, the cold SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent rather than the TIO yield a zonally confined Kelvin wave in the rapid La Niña decaying summer of 1998–2021. The elongated Kelvin wave penetrating the central Pacific weakens convective anomalies over the northwest Pacific, thereby weakening the baroclinic structure of the PJ pattern in the tropics. Meanwhile, the warm SST anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) induce a northward shift of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet, with the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the KE significantly affecting summer precipitation along the Meiyu belt. Therefore, the midlatitude barotropic structure of the PJ pattern shifts southward after the late 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) is the major influencing weather system in northern China. Yet the impacts of complex terrain on the evolution of NECV remains poorly understood. This work studies the influence of subgrid orographic drag (SOD) on a heavy‐rain‐producing NECV occurred in July 2011 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A series of numerical experiments are conducted with different parameterizations of SOD including turbulent orographic form drag (TOFD), flow blocking drag (FBD), and mountain wave drag (MWD). Results show that the NECV intensity is overestimated in the absence of SOD parameterization, accompanied with too‐low geopotential height (GPH) and too‐strong horizontal winds. The parameterization of TOFD can significantly decelerate the 10‐m winds, whereas the FBD and MWD play a minor role. However, the influence of TOFD is overwhelmed by FBD and MWD in the troposphere, especially the latter. This implies that the breaking of mountain waves play a more important role in weakening the NECV than the low‐level flow blocking. The lower‐tropospheric MWD directly weakens the convergence and ascent motion of the NECV, producing an anti‐cyclonic circulation that uplifts the GPH under the constraint of quasi‐geostrophic vertical vorticity. This MWD‐induced circulation indirectly weakens the NECV in the mid‐upper troposphere by producing a warm advection that counters the low‐level cold advection to the southwest of the NECV. The findings provide useful insights into the impacts of complex terrain on the NECV and highlight the importance of topographic drag parameterization in the simulation and short‐range forecast of NECV. Plain Language Summary: Northeast China cold vortex (NECV) is a major influencing weather system in northern China which often promotes severe convective weather like heavy rainfall, hail, and tornado. Past studies have revealed the importance of atmospheric circulations (e.g., Rossby waves associated with Eurasian blocking), sea surface temperature anomalies over North Pacific, and large‐scale orography in East Asia on the evolution of NECV. However, the underlying terrain in East Asia is much complex. It is still unclear how the NECV is affected by complex terrain. This work studies a NECV case using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, focusing on the impacts of different topographic drags including turbulent orographic form drag (TOFD), mountain wave drag (MWD), and flow blocking drag (FBD) produced by complex terrain. The influence of TOFD is basically confined in the boundary layer whereas the FBD and MWD play a major role in the troposphere, especially the latter. The low‐level MWD directly weakens the NECV in the lower troposphere by inducing an anti‐cyclonic circulation. Consequently, the low‐level cold advection to the southwest of the NECV is suppressed which indirectly weakens the NECV in the mid‐upper troposphere. The findings highlight the importance of topographic drag parameterization in the simulation and short‐range forecast of NECV. Key Points: The impacts of different topographic drag on the Northeast China cold vortex are firstly studied using numerical sensitivity experimentsTurbulent orographic form drag dominates the impact on near‐surface winds, while mountain wave drag plays a major role in the troposphereLow‐level mountain wave drag directly and indirectly weakens the cold vortex in the lower and mid‐upper troposphere, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals that the relationship between autumn north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and Northeast China's winter snowfall (NECWS) undergoes a remarkable interdecadal enhancement after 2001. Previous research confirmed that the relationship between the NTA SST anomaly and atmospheric circulation experienced interdecadal changes after the 2000s and suggested various reasons for this phenomenon. During 1961–2000, the NTA SST anomaly has a significantly positive correlation with other oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and the latter modulates the former's impact on atmospheric circulations over the Eurasian continent with a cancelling effect, which results in a weaker relationship of the NTA SST anomaly and NECWS. In contrast, the warm NTA SST anomaly is relatively independent from other oceans during 2001–20, and it proves to be the forcing factor for NECWS since its solo influence on the winter atmospheric circulations initiated from the North Atlantic to East Asia is more robust, featuring the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and a downstream quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train over the mid- to high latitudes of Eurasian continent. Accordingly, together with the deepened East Asian trough and the strongly northward transported humid and warm air from the western Pacific, the local significantly enhanced ascending motions with cooling temperature favor much more NECWS. The linear baroclinic model simulates the effects of NTA and TIO SST anomalies on winter atmospheric circulations, corroborating the aforementioned results. Such results can be used for the prediction of NECWS with respect to the precursor of the autumn NTA SST anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the most dominant tropical climate mode on the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is suggested to significantly influence the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR). However, the leading mode of IEASMR remains almost untouched when the impacts of preceding ENSO events are linearly removed, suggesting the existence of alternative impact factors and predictability sources of IEASMR. After removing the impact of ENSO, the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over both the tropical Atlantic and extratropical North Atlantic are found to be related to IEASMR through atmospheric teleconnections. Positive SSTA over the tropical Atlantic could induce tropical diabatic heating, which triggers an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave train emanating from the Atlantic, going across the Eurasian continent, and ending with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia. The tropical diabatic heating could also induce western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone via tropical routes. The dipole SSTA pattern with cooling in the west and warming in the east over the extratropical North Atlantic induces local circulation anomalies through heat flux exchange, which could further perturb a Rossby wave train with a cyclonic anomaly over northeast Asia, thus modulating IEASMR. Numerical experiments with prescribed atmospheric heating associated with Atlantic SSTAs could realistically reproduce these teleconnections toward IEASMR. By adding the predictability sources of Atlantic SSTAs, the seasonal hindcast skills of IEASMR could be significantly improved over both the tropical western North Pacific and subtropical land regions such as central China and Japan. Significance Statement: The purpose of this article is to identify the alternative impact factors of the interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (IEASMR), after removing the impact of ENSO, considering the limited contribution of ENSO to the variances of IEASMR. Here, we find that the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) play a considerable role in driving IEASMR. The impact of ENSO on IEASMR is mainly confined to the tropical western North Pacific, while the Atlantic SSTAs influence rainfall over subtropical East Asia and the tropical western North Pacific through both tropical and extratropical routes. The results unravel the important roles of Atlantic SSTAs in driving ENSO-independent IEASMR, which will have a large implication for the seasonal prediction of East Asian summer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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While enhanced rainbands progressed northward in East Asia from June to August during the regular El Niño decaying summer, strengthened rainbands were only observed in the earlier summer and disappeared in August in the super El Niño composite. The cause of this distinctive feature is investigated through a combined observational and modeling study. The relative roles of the mean state and anomalous heating in causing the northward progression in the regular El Niño group are assessed through idealized numerical experiments. The result shows that the monthly evolving mean state is more important, while the anomalous forcing also plays a role. The distinctive rainfall feature in the super El Niño composite was primarily contributed by the 1982/83 and 2015/16 events, whereas the rainband evolution in 1998 resembled the regular El Niño composite. The cause of the different rainfall pattern in August among the super El Niño events is further investigated. A marked difference exists in the tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and associated anomalous precipitation patterns. A low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly appeared south of Japan in August 1983 and 2016 (1998), inducing northerly (southerly) anomalies and thus suppressed (enhanced) rainfall in eastern China. Whereas an anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNP) is a typical response to an El Niño during its mature and decaying phases, the formation of a cyclonic anomaly in the WNP resulted from anomalous enthalpy advection associated with the eastward retreat of an anomalous anticyclone triggered by a local cold SSTA belt in August 1983 and from a Pacific meridional mode (PMM)-like positive SSTA pattern in August 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on monthly rainfall station data from the National Climate Prediction Center of China Meteorological Administration, reanalysis monthly data from NCEP/NCAR including the monthly mean and long-term mean values for geopotential height, winds of multi-levels, NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) monthly Sea Surface Temperature (ERSSTV5), the causes of anomalous excessive precipitation in 2021/2022 winter over South China (SC) are investigated by Liang-Kleeman information flow, composite and wave flux methods. The results show that the winter precipitation over SC in 2021/2022 DJF is far more than normal, and the associated circulation patterns are obviously different from those induced by traditional La Niña, especially in the Atlantic and East Asia areas south to Lake Baikal. In 2021/2022 DJF, the Tibet Plateau (TP) exists anomalous cyclone with strong ascending motion, which directly affects the circulation patterns in Eastern China and thus the precipitation in SC. It is a significant causal relationship for the earlier season velocity potential at 850 hPa (related to the anomalous SST) over the tropical Atlantic to later DJF anomalous vertical motions over TP. Especially when the anomalies in tropical Atlantic leads one month before, the relationship is closest. The anomalies of the tropical Atlantic can stimulate the Rossby wave train which propagates downstream, corresponding to the abnormal cyclonic circulation over TP. In the early autumn to winter of 2021/2022, the 850 hPa potential velocity anomalies in the tropical Atlantic were significant with positive phase. The Rossby wave train excited by the potential velocity anomalies and then propagated along the great circle path and global jet stream (GJT) over South Asia (SA), formed an anomalous cyclonic with ascending motion over TP and lead more precipitation over SC in winter of 2021/2022. Winter rainfall, usually accompanying with lower temperature, will bring severely bad influence on traffic, power supply, communication, agriculture and people's lives. The results of this paper can provide a reference for further understanding the causes and mechanism of DJF rainfall over SC. • The winter precipitation over SC in 2021/2022 DJF is extremely more than normal, and the associated circulation patterns are obviously different from those induced by La Niña, especially in the Atlantic and East Asia areas south to Lake Baikal. • Strong ascending motion over TP(Tibet Plateau) affects the circulation patterns directly in eastern China and lead to the excessive precipitation in SC during 2021/2022 DJF. • The anomalies over the tropical Atlantic can stimulate the Rossby wave train and propagate downstream, and the Rossby wave trains allow energy to propagate to TP area with wave flux convergent, contributing certainly to the anomaly cyclone circulation there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the daily minimum temperature data from 199 meteorological stations in northeast China (NEC), the cold wave (CW) processes in winter from 1980 to 2020 are identified. Then, by using the reanalysis 500‐hPa geopotential height data provided by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the CWs are objectively classified into two types (abbreviated as Type 1 and Type 2) according to the corresponding atmospheric circulation through the hierarchical cluster algorithm (HCA). The relationships of the CWs with the Arctic sea sic (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) are revealed. For Type 1, the SIC in the north of the Barents Sea–Kara Sea is relatively less in the previous autumn, and a wave train propagating from the polar regions to Northeast Asia is stimulated under the ice–atmosphere interaction. This wave train further cooperates with the positive SST anomaly in the southern Indian Ocean to excite the low‐vortex circulation under the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter, which is conducive to the occurrence of Type 1. However, the relatively low SST in the western Pacific warm pool in previous autumn stimulates a northward propagating wave train along the meridian, which increases the degree of meridionality of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and thus indirectly causes the polar‐vortex‐splitting circulation under the positive AO phase, which favours the formation of Type 2. The numerical simulations can well reproduce the observational facts, further confirming the possible impact of the SIC and SST in the previous autumn on the two types of CW over the NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) substantially affects the climate in the Pacific and East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that the springtime Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) sea surface temperature zonal gradient (SSTG) could be used as a predictor of the subsequent summertime WPSH's intensity. Here, we find that the interannual variability of the springtime IPWP SSTG has greatly decreased after the late 1990s, accompanied by the weakened relationship between the springtime IPWP SSTG and the following summertime WPSH, which may reduce the efficiency of the springtime IPWP SSTG as a key predictor for the summertime WPSH in recent decades. This observed recent weakening IPWP SSTG–WPSH relationship could be largely contributed by the decadal shift of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the WPSH around the late 1990s. The ENSO regime shift from the eastern Pacific (EP) type to the central Pacific (CP) type could alter the spatial pattern of the springtime IPWP sea surface temperature (SST) dipole and further weaken the local air–sea interaction between the underlying IPWP SST and the WPSH. From another perspective of the WPSH decadal shift, the WPSH‐related first leading mode before (after) the late 1990s, characterized by a large‐scale uniform (dipole) pattern with an oscillating period of ~4–5 year (~2–3 year), tended to promote a stronger (weaker) linkage with the springtime IPWP SSTG. In addition, the recent enhancement of the tropical Atlantic SST influences is considered to possibly promote the decadal shifts of the ENSO and the WPSH‐related leading mode. After the springtime tropical Atlantic SST was added as a predictor, the predicting skills of the empirical equation for the summertime WPSH could be substantially improved. The results herein have important implications for the further improvement of the seasonal WPSH prediction, which is of great practical significance in the prevention and mitigation of climate disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation in July across Henan Province and the possible mechanisms involved were investigated. The precipitation in Henan reaches its maximum in July. During 1979–2021, the precipitation in July changed weakly, but the intensity (R99p) and frequency (R99f) of extreme precipitation showed certain increasing trends, with a significant increase in northern Henan. The proportion of extreme precipitation in total precipitation exhibited a significant upward trend. Wavelet analysis results showed that the extreme precipitation in Henan mainly has a 2–3‐year periodicity, and remarkable interannual variation. Furthermore, nearly 80% of the July extreme precipitation events within the magnitude of 50–100 mm occurred 2–3 times. The first two empirical orthogonal function modes of July R99p exhibited a quasi‐monopole pattern (EOF1) and meridional dipole pattern (EOF2), respectively. Further analysis revealed that EOF1 and EOF2 were related to the Silk Road teleconnection pattern (SRP) and the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP). Circulation factors influenced the interannual variation of R99p, especially in recent years. Furthermore, the associated sea surface temperature anomalies over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean can intensify the eastward extension of the South Asian high and westward strengthening of the western Pacific subtropical high, which further impacted the SRP and EAP pattern and enhanced the increment of extreme precipitation in Henan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the summer precipitation over northwest China (NW) has experienced a significant interdecadal shift since the early 1990s, followed by a great increase in precipitation. This increase was mainly due to the anomalous water vapour input from the eastern boundary, whose transport has gradually become the main moisture transport belt affecting summer precipitation over NW in the past 30 years. Further research indicates that the anomalous easterly water vapour transport mainly originates from the Arctic and North Pacific Oceans. The interdecadal increase in precipitation and changes in water vapour transport pathways are related to the interdecadal warming of the North Atlantic (NA) and Indian‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) in the mid‐1980s. The IPWP warming potentially weakens the land–sea thermal gradient, dampens the meridional circulation in East Asia, and thereby significantly reduces the southerly water vapour transport of the Asian summer monsoon, and generates anomalous northeasterly water vapour transport from high latitudes over East Asia. Moreover, the warmer sea surface temperature (SST) over the IPWP and NA can induce an anomalous teleconnection wave train, with anomalous anticyclones over Lake Baikal and the Aleutian Islands, and an anomalous cyclone over Japan. This type of teleconnection wave train contributes to anomalous northerly winds over eastern China and easterly winds over NW. The above‐mentioned anomalous circulation favours moisture transport from both the Arctic and North Pacific toward the NW, resulting in an increase in summer precipitation associated with the anomalous regional ascending motion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. The concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Significance Statement: The East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) and western North Pacific are important areas that bridge El Niño and the climate of East Asia. Unlike the cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the western North Pacific during El Niño, the positive SSTA over EAMS, which is covered by winter low cloud, has received less attention. We suggest that a "low cloud–SST" feedback—namely, one in which decreasing low-level clouds allows more sunlight to strike the ocean surface and favors higher SST—maintains the positive SSTA over EAMS. We also configure a widely used atmospheric model with a set of preset SSTA patterns that mimic different climate patterns. Our experiments with different climate patterns and CMIP6 historical runs show that the low cloud–SST feedback (through the positive SSTA) is a possible supplementary mechanism for reinforcing the WNP anomalous anticyclone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taiwan Strait has the largest temporal variability in the wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) along the China coast. The warming and cooling trends reach about ± 1 °C per decade in winter during 1982–1999 and 1999–2014, respectively, which are about 4 times larger than neighboring coastal area and open ocean. Previous studies have noted these opposite trends, but the cause remains unclear due to insufficient study on teleconnections of this local signals to large-scale climate signals (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO; El Niño–Southern Oscillation, ENSO). Using different period filters, wintertime SST anomaly in the Taiwan Strait (TS-SSTa) of different timescales were separated and connected to the large-scale climate signals. Besides the impact of global warming, we also found that the interdecadal signal of PDO contribute significantly to the warming and cooling trends of the wintertime TS-SSTa during 1982–2014 (mostly the positive PDO phase). During the positive PDO phase, a sea level pressure (SLP) dipole develops at the North Pacific, leading to a northeasterly wind jet along the Eurasian eastern coast, and affecting the interdecadal wintertime TS-SSTa through the East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. During the negative PDO phase, the influence from North Pacific weakens, and the tropical Pacific has a greater influence on the interannual wintertime TS-SSTa through the northward movement of the ENSO-related cyclone/anticyclone anomaly over East Asia. Thus, the influence from North Pacific (PDO) and tropical Pacific (ENSO) alternately control the TS-SSTa variation during the positive and negative PDO phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]