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Rhododendron delavayi Franch. predominantly thrives in broad-leaved evergreen forests and bushes at altitudes of 1,200–3,200 meters. It favors a cool, moist climate and thrives in acidic soils. Due to its high ornamental, medicinal, and scientific values, understanding its ecological needs and optimal cultivation ranges is crucial. This study analyzing the key environmental factors and their thresholds affecting its distribution and predicts the future potential habitats of R. delavayi using existing distribution data alongside current and projected climate data. The results indicate that the primary environmental influencers are soil pH (4.9–5.4), precipitation in the driest month (10–20 mm), and altitude, contributing 41.8, 24.1, and 18.3%, respectively. It also shows a declining trend in suitable habitats: from 27.75 × 104 km² under current conditions, to 3.69 × 104 km² by the 2050s, and further to 2.65 × 104 km² by the 2070s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) is a significant pest of commercial citrus crops. It is a univoltine and oligophagous species widely distributed in Japan and China. In this study, the potential distribution of the B. tsuneonis population under current and different future climate change scenarios was modeled using MaxEnt software (v. 3.4.1) and optimized using R software (v. 4.3.2). Under current climate conditions, the potentially suitable areas were mainly concentrated in Central, South, and East China. The total area of habitats suitable for this pest was predicted to increase in the future climate scenarios. The centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. Our findings provide new insights that could aid the monitoring of B. tsuneonis in China. The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long‐term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short‐term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Based on the occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Heteronychus arator, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale worldwide, and we also discuss the possible distribution of Popillia japonica, Heteronychus arator, Oryctes monoceros, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale. The results showed that every continent has potential distribution areas for these species. In China, the potential distribution of Popillia japonica and Amphimallon majale was mainly concentrated in central eastern regions, while the presence of Heteronychus arator and Oryctes boas was mainly concentrated in the southwest areas. Oryctes monoceros has no possible distribution at present. Based on the predicted results, we recommend that the government carry out species monitoring to minimize financial losses. A hot topic in recent years is the prediction of the potential distribution of possible invasive insects. China is facing a great challenge due to invasive insects. Scarab beetles are a highly diverse group, and many of them are well-known invasive insects. Here, in order to prevent the invasion of scarab beetles in China, we screened the invasive insects globally and obtained a preliminary database of quarantine or invasive scarab beetles. From the obtained database, we selected the top five species (Popillia japonica, Heteronychus arator, Oryctes monoceros, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale) to discuss and analyzed the potential distribution of three species that have not invaded China by using the MaxEnt model. The prediction results show that every continent has potential distribution areas for these species. Specifically within China, Popillia japonica and Amphimallon majale were mainly concentrated in east central regions and Heteronychus arator and Oryctes boas were mainly distributed in the southwest areas, while Oryctes monoceros has no suitable area. Notably, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang province had a high risk of invasion. In general, local agriculture, forestry and customs departments in China should pay more attention to monitoring for the prevention of infestation by invasive insects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Wild populations of C. pictus and C. amherstiae have been decreasing due to habitat fragmentation and long-term uncontrolled poaching. To support the Chrysolophus spp.'s conservation, we simulated the potential distribution of the two species in China, calculated the patch fragmentation index of suitable habitats of Chrysolophus spp. in nature reserve areas and non-nature reserve areas, and analyzed the habitat status of C. pictus and C. amherstiae in China. Compared with the previous studies, their habitat areas have been reduced. In addition, most of the suitable habitats were not in nature reserves and were highly fragmented. We offer recommendations for the Chinese government to formulate conservation schemes for the Chrysolophus spp. population in the future. Over the past few years, the wild population of Chrysolophus spp. has decreased remarkably. Habitat fragmentation is a significant cause for this serious threat to the survival of Chrysolophus spp. population. In order to further understand the distribution of potentially suitable habitats of Chrysolophus spp., we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potentially suitable habitats of C. pictus and C. amherstiae in China based on the known distribution. According to the prediction results of the model, we calculated the landscape pattern index to compare the fragmentation of the two species' potential suitable habitats in nature reserves and non-nature reserves. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitat for Chrysolophus spp. only accounted for a small area of China. The suitable habitats for C. pictus were mainly in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hubei, and other provinces, and the model predicts a total area of 359,053.06 km2. In addition, the suitable habitats for C. amherstiae were mainly distributed in the three-parallel-river area, with a potential total area of 215,569.83 km2. The model also showed that there was an overlap of suitable habitats between the two species in the western edge of the Sichuan Basin. Previously, hybrids of the two pheasants have already been found in this same overlapping area predicted by the model. The landscape pattern index showed that in the potentially suitable habitat for Chrysolophus spp., the fragmentation of non-nature reserve areas was higher than that of nature reserve areas. The results revealed the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Chrysolophus spp. in China and highlighted that the suitable habitats in non-nature reserve areas were in urgent need of conservation, thereby providing a key reference for the conservation of the Chrysolophus spp. population in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) is an important grain storage pest in China that is distributed in almost every province and that has caused huge economic losses. In this study, we adjusted the biological parameters of the Indian grain borer and then used the CLIMEX model to predict the detailed potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China under current and future conditions. Under historical climatic conditions, the central, northeastern, and southern regions of China are highly suitable habitats for it. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. This study provides important information for controlling the further spread of the Indian corn borer in China. The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960–1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest's highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km2, and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change. Methods: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature. Results: The effective minimum temperature (ET50min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward. Conclusions: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Hyphantria cunea is a problematic invasive species that has caused considerable damage to agricultural and forestry ecosystems in China. 2. We compared 19 bioclimate variables between its native country (the United States of America) and China to elucidate the environmental factors associated with its presence. Using present climate data (1970–2000) and projected future climate data (2050 and 2070) based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), we used MaxEnt to predict the suitable habitat areas for H. cunea in the USA and China. Using these analyses, we predicted the niche change of H. cunea in China using the 'ecospat' package in R. 3. Our model predicts that climate change will generally increase the extent of suitable habitat in both China and the USA, although low latitude areas will be limited by future climate change. We also report low niche overlap between the USA and Chinese populations of H. cuena and significant differences in bioclimate variables associate with its presence in each country. Therefore, our results suggest H. cunea has adapted to several climatic conditions in China. This indicates the niche of H. cunea may shift and adapt to novel environmental conditions over the course of its spread. 4. Overall, the analysis of the environmental characteristics, niche changes, and suitable areas of H. cunea provides a basis for pest control and management strategies aimed at preventing further spread. Our methods may also be used to study other similar invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species' survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how the direct and indirect effects of climate change may affect species distributions is a key topic in ecology. We used maximum entropy models to explore the distribution of two species of shrews (Chodsigoa hypsibia and Anourosorex squamipes) in China and analyzed the main environmental factors affecting their current distribution and potential distribution changes under two future climate scenarios. The results showed that the major environmental factors determining the current distribution of C. hypsibia were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (contributing 47.4%), annual mean temperature (contributing 24.7%), precipitation of the driest quarter (contributing 21.1%) and isothermality (contributing 6%). Annual precipitation (contributing 42.9%), precipitation of the driest month (contributing 28.1%), annual mean temperature (contributing 14.8%) and temperature seasonality (contributing 12.6%) had the highest contributions to the distribution of A. squamipes. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range of C. hypsibia increased while that of A. squamipes decreased. These findings demonstrate that different small mammal species respond differently to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming poses an enormous threat to particular species with shifts to their suitable habitat. Juniperus rigida Sieb. et Zucc., an endemic species to East Asia and a pioneer species in the Loess plateau region, is endangered because of the shrinking and scattered habitat threatened by climate change. For the sake of analyzing the impact of climate warming on its possible habitat, we herein projected the current and future potential habitats of J. rigida in China and comparatively analyzed the ecological habitat changes in three main distribution regions. There were 110 specimen records of J. rigida collected across China and 22 environmental datasets, including bioclimatic variables and soil and topographical factors, selected by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. The MaxEnt model based on specimen presence and environmental factors was used for projecting the potential habitats of J. rigida in China in the 2050s and the 2070s of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results indicated an excellence model performance with the average value of the area under curve (AUC) is 0.928. The mean temperature of the driest quarter (MTDq) and the temperature annual range (TAR) provided important contributions to the potential distribution of J. rigida. There were three main distribution areas in China, the Xinjiang region, the Loess-Inner Mongolian Plateau region, and the Changbai Mountain region. The distribution increased overall in area under RCP 2.6 and decreased for RCP 8.5. The mean altitude of the core distribution shifted upward in general under both scenarios. The Loess–Inner Mongolian Plateau region is the biggest distribution, encompassing ca. 61.39 × 104 km2 (86.87 × 104 km2 in China). The region threatened most by climate change is located in the Changbai Mountain distribution, with the centroid of the cord suitable habitat migrating southwest about 227.47 and 260.32 km under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 by the 2070s. In summary, these findings provided a well-grounded understanding of the effect of climate change on ecological distribution and furnished theory evidence for the protection, management, and sustainable use of J. rigida. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]