1. A generalized computationally efficient copula-polynomial chaos framework for probabilistic power flow considering nonlinear correlations of PV injections.
- Author
-
Ye, Ketian, Zhao, Junbo, Zhang, Yingchen, Liu, Xiaodong, and Zhang, Hongming
- Subjects
- *
ELECTRICAL load , *POLYNOMIAL chaos , *INDEPENDENT variables , *STATISTICAL models , *ANALYSIS of variance , *SENSITIVITY analysis - Abstract
This paper develops a general computationally efficient copula-polynomial chaos expansion (copula-PCE) framework for power system probabilistic power flow that can handle both linear and nonlinear correlations of uncertain power injections, such as wind and PVs. A data-driven copula statistical model is used to capture both nonlinear and linear correlations of uncertain power injections. This allows us to resort to the Rosenblatt transformation to transform correlated variables into independent ones while preserving the dependence structure. It paves the way for leveraging PCE for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of power flow results. To further improve the computational efficiency of the proposed method without sacrificing accuracy, two strategies are developed and unified together. Specifically, the branch flow sensitivity analysis (BFSA) is used to select an appropriate number of outputs that need PCE surrogate modeling while the analysis of variance (ANOVA) scheme enables us to reduce the number of basis functions and coefficients evaluations for each PCE surrogate. Simulations carried out on the IEEE 57-bus and 118-bus and PEGASE 1354-bus systems show that the proposed framework can obtain better accuracy and computational efficiency than the existing PCE-based methods with linear correlation assumption and other Monte Carlo-based methods. The sensitivities to different copula types and parameters are also investigated. • A generalized copula-PCE framework is proposed to handle both nonlinear and linear correlations among uncertain inputs. • To improve the computational efficiency of the proposed framework without loss of accuracy, the branch flow sensitivity analysis (BFSA) and ANOVA method are integrated into a unified manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF