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Understanding the history of sea‐level changes in the past and the associated mechanisms is crucial for predicting sea level in the future. The South China Sea is the largest semi‐enclosed marginal sea in the western tropical Pacific. Previous studies showed that this region experienced several sea‐level fluctuations up to half a meter on centennial timescales ∼7,000 cal yr BP. These fluctuations were greater in magnitude than the rise in global mean sea level induced by greenhouse effect over the 20th century. However, whether such sea‐level fluctuations occurred in a wider temporal context and their potential causes remain unclear. To answer these questions, we reconstructed the mid‐Holocene sea‐level fluctuations in the northern South China Sea using nine coral microatoll fossils collected from Hainan Island. The results suggest that sea‐level fluctuations with amplitude of about half a meter on centennial timescales were common during 6,143–4,384 cal yr BP. Based on recent studies of sea‐level driving mechanisms in the South China Sea and paleoclimate reconstructions, we infer that these sea‐level fluctuations were likely driven by changes of Walker circulation intensity. Due to the internal variability of the climate system, the possibility of similar sea‐level fluctuations in the foreseeable future cannot be ruled out. Key Points: Microatolls on Hainan Island revealed multiple half‐meter sea‐level fluctuations on centennial timescale during the mid‐HoloceneThese sea‐level fluctuations are similar to those occurred ∼7,000 cal yr BP in other regions of the South China SeaThe responsible mechanisms were likely related to the changes of the Pacific Walker circulation intensity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and sea-level rise (SLR) induced by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations can cause coral bleaching, death, and submergence of the world's coral reefs. Adopting the GIS and RS methods, we modeled how these two stressors combine to influence the future growth of the atolls and table reefs of three archipelagoes in the South China Sea (SCS), based on geomorphic and ecological zones. A large-scale survey of the coral communities in Xisha Islands in 2014, Dongsha Islands in 2014–2016 and Nansha Islands in 2007 provided zone-specific process datasets on the range of reef accretion rates. Sea surface temperature and extreme (minimum and maximum) SLR data above 1985–2005 levels by 2100 in the SCS were derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our model projected that: (1) the Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands may have a better growth status, because the reef flat biotic sparse zone may be recolonized with hard coral and become a biotic dense zone; (2) the southern Nansha Islands reefs have a risk of stopping growing due to their earlier annual bleaching years. The increasing of water depths of these reefs is stronger in the RCP with more emissions. Our approach offers insights into the best-case and worst-case impacts of two global environmental pressures on potential future reef growth under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most studies on coral bleaching alerts use common Degree Heating Week (DHW) thresholds; however, these may underestimate historical patterns of heat stress for coral reef ecosystems. Taking an optimized DHW threshold for coral bleaching alerts for Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) products, we analyzed the precise spatial and temporal pattern of heat stress on China's coral reefs from 2010 to 2021 in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Beibu Gulf (BG). We compared acute heat stress using common and optimized thresholds. Results indicated that the ocean warming rate in 2010–2021 was approximately 0.43 ± 0.22 °C/10a, showing a significant increase in the northern SCS and the BG. More severe bleaching events were predicted by the optimized thresholds and the high-frequency areas were mainly in the northern SCS. The number and intensity of years with severe heat stress anomalies was in the order 2020 > 2014 > 2010 > 2015. Heat stress duration was the longest in the Xisha Islands among offshore archipelagos, and longest in 2020–2021 in Weizhou Island in BG in the relative high-latitude inshore reefs. These abnormal events were mainly caused by El Niño, but La Niña was also involved in 2020. • The most intense severe heat stress anomaly years were 2010 > 2014>2020 > 2015. • The anomaly duration of offshore islands was Xisha > Dongsha > Zhongsha > Nansha Islands. • High-latitude reefs were predicted not to be future thermal refuges for SCS reefs. • The optimized DHW threshold more accurately predicted spatiotemporal heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]