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Purpose: Comprehensive project portfolio risk (PPR) analysis is essential for the success and sustainable development of project portfolios (PPs). However, project interdependency creates complexity for PPR analysis. In this study, considering the interdependency effect among projects, the authors develop a quantitative evaluation model to analyze PPR based on a fuzzy Bayesian network. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the primary purpose is to comprehensively evaluate project portfolio risk considering the interdependency effect using a systematical model. Accordingly, a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) is developed based on the existing studies. Specifically, first, the risks in project portfolios are identified from the project interdependencies perspective. Second, a fuzzy Bayesian network is adopted to model and quantify the interaction relationships among risks. Finally, the model is implemented to analyze the occurrence situation and characteristics of risks. Findings: The interdependency effect can lead to high-stake risks, including weak financial liquidity, a lack of cross-project members and project priority imbalance. Furthermore, project schedule risks and inconsistency between product supply and market demand are relatively sensitive and should also be prioritized. Also, the validity of this risk evaluation model has been proved. Originality/value: The findings identify the most sensitive risks for guaranteeing portfolio implementation and reveal interdependency effect can trigger some specific risks more often. This study proposes for the first time to measure and analyze project portfolio risk by a systematical model. It can help systematically assess and manage the complicated and interdependent risks associated with project portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the mechanism for generating and promoting project portfolio (PP) synergy, a model applying the causal loop diagram (CLD) is established. The efforts have been done include four parts. First, a sustainable objective system is determined through the improved balanced scorecard. Second, three categories of manufacturing projects are identified to illustrate the characteristics and objectives. Third, a CLD model is constructed based on the objective achievement process of PPs. Fourth, suggestions are made to promote the objective realization by synergy. The major result is that the generation and promotion mechanism are portrayed through the causal loops and feedbacks of CLD. CLD is adopted as the analytical approach for superiority in visualizing complex relationships. The main findings are: (1) The synergy generation mechanism is specified that PP synergy generates from the collaborative behaviors among PPs. (2) PP synergy promotes objective realization through additional effects arise from complex feedbacks among behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a prefabricated construction supply chain (PCSC) consisting of a project contractor who shoulders the on-site assembly task and orders prefabs from a prefabricated factory. To mitigate the heavy double handling costs associated with early and late delivery of prefabs, the project contractor requires the right quantity and exact type of prefabs are carried to construction sites according to its assembly schedule. This is known as just-in-time purchasing (JITP). However, JITP may increase the pressure on the prefabricated factory to hold excessive inventory or to compress production time. For these reasons, the prefabricated factory may be reluctant to switch to JITP. To initiate the operation of JITP and establish a win-win outcome, side-payment contracts including a delivery-time dependent subsidy and two constant transfer terms are designed as coordinate schemes. Employing Stackelberg, we explore participants' optimal decisions. The results show that the JITP yields higher profit for PCSC, and the proposed contracts are capable of achieving a win-win coordination. In particular, the constant transfer cost term is relatively equitable to participants, while the constant cost-sharing transfer term outperforms the constant transfer cost term under a high double handling cost. Moreover, the prefabricated factory earns more profit when the double handling cost for early or late delivery is high. Some managerial implications are also obtained and help to strengthen cooperation among participants and promote the sustainable development of the PCSC. • The effect of just-in-time purchasing on double handling costs is investigated by mathematical model. • Information sharing between participants under just-in-time purchasing is considered and quantified. • The different contract combinations are employed to provide participants with various coordination schemes. • Just-in-time purchasing yields higher profits for the prefabricated construction supply chain. • Side-payment contracts can resolve profit conflicts between participants arising from just-in-time purchasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]