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During incremental exercise, two ventilatory thresholds (VT1, VT2) can normally be identified from gas exchange and ventilatory measurements, such as oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production and ventilation. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the VT2 using HRV indices derived from a wearable electrocardiogram during a maximal exercise test. The exercise test is conducted on a treadmill that raises its speed by 0.5 km/h every minute. We have 42 measured exercise tests from 24 healthy male volunteers. Three experts determined the VT2 in each exercise test independently and we used principal component subspace reconstruction of their determinations to compute a collective VT2 for our machine learning model. The results demonstrate that the VT2 can be estimated from HRV using the proposed method with a reasonable performance during a maximal exercise test. In 28 out of 42 exercise tests, the HRV-derived threshold (HRVT) is within a minute (one phase) of the collective expert's determination.