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Plant functional traits hold the potential to greatly improve the understanding and prediction of climate impacts on ecosystems and carbon cycle feedback to climate change. Traits are commonly used to place species along a global conservative-acquisitive trade-off, yet how and if functional traits and conservative-acquisitive trade-offs scale up to mediate community and ecosystem fluxes is largely unknown. Here, we combine functional trait datasets and multibiome datasets of forest water and carbon fluxes at the species, community, and ecosystem-levels to quantify the scaling of the tradeoff between maximum flux and sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. We find a strong conservative-acquisitive trade-off at the species scale, which weakens modestly at the community scale and largely disappears at the ecosystem scale. Functional traits, particularly plant water transport (hydraulic) traits, are strongly associated with the key dimensions of the conservative-acquisitive trade-off at community and ecosystem scales, highlighting that trait composition appears to influence community and ecosystem flux dynamics. Our findings provide a foundation for improving carbon cycle models by revealing i) that plant hydraulic traits are most strongly associated with community-and ecosystem scale flux dynamics and ii) community assembly dynamics likely need to be considered explicitly, as they give rise to ecosystem-level flux dynamics that differ substantially from trade-offs identified at the species-level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metrics to quantify regulation of plant water status at the daily as opposed to the seasonal scale do not presently exist. This gap is significant since plants are hypothesised to regulate their water potential not only with respect to slowly changing soil drought but also with respect to faster changes in air vapour pressure deficit (VPD), a variable whose importance for plant physiology is expected to grow because of higher temperatures in the coming decades. We present a metric, the stringency of water potential regulation, that can be employed at the daily scale and quantifies the effects exerted on plants by the separate and combined effect of soil and atmospheric drought. We test our theory using datasets from two experiments where air temperature and VPD were experimentally manipulated. In contrast to existing metrics based on soil drought that can only be applied at the seasonal scale, our metric successfully detects the impact of atmospheric warming on the regulation of plant water status. We show that the thermodynamic effect of VPD on plant water status can be isolated and compared against that exerted by soil drought and the covariation between VPD and soil drought. Furthermore, in three of three cases, VPD accounted for more than 5 MPa of potential effect on leaf water potential. We explore the significance of our findings in the context of potential future applications of this metric from plant to ecosystem scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change‐triggered forest die‐off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand‐level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree‐ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die‐off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand‐level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross‐ and within‐species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large‐scale projections of forest die‐off under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. We found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience–mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience–mortality relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest productivity projections remain highly uncertain, notably because underpinning physiological controls are delicate to disentangle. Transient perturbation of global climate by large volcanic eruptions provides a unique opportunity to retrospectively isolate underlying processes. Here, we use a multi‐proxy dataset of tree‐ring records distributed over the Northern Hemisphere to investigate the effect of eruptions on tree growth and photosynthesis and evaluate CMIP6 models. Tree‐ring isotope records denoted a widespread 2–4 years increase of photosynthesis following eruptions, likely as a result of diffuse light fertilization. We found evidence that enhanced photosynthesis transiently drove ring width, but the latter further exhibited a decadal anomaly that evidenced independent growth and photosynthesis responses. CMIP6 simulations reproduced overall tree growth decline but did not capture observed photosynthesis anomaly, its decoupling from tree growth or the climate sensitivities of either processes, highlighting key disconnects that deserve further attention to improve forest productivity projections under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs), or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we use two dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs), ED2 and LPJ-GUESS, to investigate the hypothesis that ecosystem responses to UCEs (e.g., unprecedented droughts) differ qualitatively from ecosystem responses to milder extremes, as a result of non-linear ecosystem responses. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites in Australia and Costa Rica. Both models produced nonlinear responses to UCEs. Due to the two models having different but plausible representations of processes and interactions, they diverge in sensitivity of biomass loss due to drought duration or intensity, and differ between each site. Biomass losses are most sensitive to drought duration in ED2, but to drought intensity in LPJ-GUESS. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight contrasting differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. The different hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs existing in models reflect knowledge gaps, which should be tested with targeted field experiments. This iterative modeling-experimental framework would help improve predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses and climate feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate‐equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate‐equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over‐crediting of 30.0 million tCO2e (90% CI: 20.5–38.6 million tCO2e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%–37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280–$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose are a prominent tool to reconstruct paleoclimate and plant responses to environmental variation. Current models for cellulose isotope ratios assume a transfer of the environmental signals recorded in bulk leaf water to carbohydrates and ultimately into stem cellulose. However, the isotopic signal of carbohydrates exported from leaf to branch may deviate from mean leaf values if spatial heterogeneity in isotope ratios exists in the leaf. We tested whether the isotopic heterogeneity previously observed along the length of a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) leaf water was preserved in photosynthetic products. We observed an increase in both sugar and bulk tissue δ18O values along the needle, but the increase in carbohydrate δ18O values was dampened relative to the trend observed in leaf water. In contrast, δ13C values of both sugar and bulk organic matter were invariant along the needle. Phloem-exported sugar measured in the branch below the needles did not match whole-needle values of δ18O or δ13C. Instead, there was a near-constant offset observed between the branch and needle sugar δ13C values, while branch δ18O values were most similar to δ18O values observed for sugar at the base of the needle. The observed offset between the branch and needle sugar δ18O values likely arises from partial isotope oxygen exchange between sugars and water during phloem loading and transport. An improved understanding of the conditions producing differential δ13C and δ18O isotope effects between branch phloem and needle sugars could improve tree-ring-based climate reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees are long-lived organisms that integrate climate conditions across years or decades to produce secondary growth. This integration process is sometimes referred to as 'climatic memory.' While widely perceived, the physiological processes underlying this temporal integration, such as the storage and remobilization of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC), are rarely explicitly studied. This is perhaps most apparent when considering drought legacies (perturbed post-drought growth responses to climate), and the physiological mechanisms underlying these lagged responses to climatic extremes. Yet, drought legacies are likely to become more common if warming climate brings more frequent drought. To quantify the linkages between drought legacies, climate memory and NSC, we measured tree growth (via tree ring widths) and NSC concentrations in three dominant species across the southwestern USA. We analyzed these data with a hierarchical mixed effects model to evaluate the time-scales of influence of past climate (memory) on tree growth. We then evaluated the role of climate memory and the degree to which variation in NSC concentrations were related to forward-predicted growth during the hot 2011–2012 drought and subsequent 4-year recovery period. Populus tremuloides exhibited longer climatic memory compared to either Pinus edulis or Juniperus osteosperma , but following the 2011–2012 drought, P. tremuloides trees with relatively longer memory of temperature conditions showed larger (more negative) drought legacies. Conversely, Pinus edulis trees with longer temperature memory had smaller (less negative) drought legacies. For both species, higher NSC concentrations followed more negative (larger) drought legacies, though the relevant NSC fraction differed between P. tremuloides and P. edulis. Our results suggest that differences in tree NSC are also imprinted upon tree growth responses to climate across long time scales, which also underlie tree resilience to increasingly frequent drought events under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Classifying the diverse ways that plants respond to hydrologic stress into generalizable 'water‐use strategies' has long been an eco‐physiological research goal. While many schemes for describing water‐use strategies have proven to be quite useful, they are also associated with uncertainties regarding their theoretical basis and their connection to plant carbon and water relations. In this review, we discuss the factors that shape plant water stress responses and assess the approaches used to classify a plant's water‐use strategy, paying particular attention to the popular but controversial concept of a continuum from isohydry to anisohydry.A generalizable and predictive framework for assessing plant water‐use strategies has been historically elusive, yet recent advances in plant physiology and hydraulics provide the field with a way past these obstacles. Specifically, we promote the idea that many metrics that quantify water‐use strategies are highly dynamic and emergent from the interaction between plant traits and environmental conditions, and that this complexity has historically hindered the development of a generalizable water‐use strategy framework.This idea is explored using a plant hydraulics model to identify: (a) distinct temporal phases in plant hydraulic regulation during drought that underpin dynamic water‐use responses, and (b) how variation in both traits and environmental forcings can significantly alter common metrics used to characterize plant water‐use strategies. This modelling exercise can bridge the divide between various conceptualizations of water‐use strategies and provide targeted hypotheses to advance the understanding and quantification of plant water status regulation across spatial and temporal scales.Finally, we describe research frontiers that are necessary to improve the predictive capacity of the plant water‐use strategy concept, including further investigation into the below‐ground determinants of plant water relations, targeted data collection efforts and the potential to scale these concepts from individuals to whole regions. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]