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Compartmental models that describe infectious disease transmission across subpopulations are central for assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, behavioral changes and seasonal effects on the spread of respiratory infections. We present a Bayesian workflow for such models, including four features: (1) an adjustment for incomplete case ascertainment, (2) an adequate sampling distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases, (3) a flexible, time-varying transmission rate, and (4) a stratification by age group. Within the workflow, we benchmarked the performance of various implementations of two of these features (2 and 3). For the second feature, we used SARS-CoV-2 data from the canton of Geneva (Switzerland) and found that a quasi-Poisson distribution is the most suitable sampling distribution for describing the overdispersion in the observed laboratory-confirmed cases. For the third feature, we implemented three methods: Brownian motion, B-splines, and approximate Gaussian processes (aGP). We compared their performance in terms of the number of effective samples per second, and the error and sharpness in estimating the time-varying transmission rate over a selection of ordinary differential equation solvers and tuning parameters, using simulated seroprevalence and laboratory-confirmed case data. Even though all methods could recover the time-varying dynamics in the transmission rate accurately, we found that B-splines perform up to four and ten times faster than Brownian motion and aGPs, respectively. We validated the B-spline model with simulated age-stratified data. We applied this model to 2020 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and two seroprevalence studies from the canton of Geneva. This resulted in detailed estimates of the transmission rate over time and the case ascertainment. Our results illustrate the potential of the presented workflow including stratified transmission to estimate age-specific epidemiological parameters. The workflow is freely available in the R package HETTMO, and can be easily adapted and applied to other infectious diseases.

Abstract Background Vaccination is an effective strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the uptake of COVID-19 vaccination has varied across and within countries. Switzerland has had lower levels of COVID-19 vaccination uptake in the general population than many other high-income countries. Understanding the socio-demographic factors associated with vaccination uptake can help to inform future vaccination strategies to increase uptake. Methods We conducted a longitudinal online survey in the Swiss population, consisting of six survey waves from June to September 2021. Participants provided information on socio-demographic characteristics, history of testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), social contacts, willingness to be vaccinated, and vaccination status. We used a multivariable Poisson regression model to estimate the adjusted rate ratio (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of COVID-19 vaccine uptake. Results We recorded 6,758 observations from 1,884 adults. For the regression analysis, we included 3,513 observations from 1,883 participants. By September 2021, 600 (75%) of 806 study participants had received at least one vaccine dose. Participants who were older, male, and students, had a higher educational level, household income, and number of social contacts, and lived in a household with a medically vulnerable person were more likely to have received at least one vaccine dose. Female participants, those who lived in rural areas and smaller households, and people who perceived COVID-19 measures as being too strict were less likely to be vaccinated. We found no significant association between previous SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccination uptake. Conclusions Our results suggest that socio-demographic factors as well as individual behaviours and attitudes played an important role in COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Switzerland. Therefore, appropriate communication with the public is needed to ensure that public health interventions are accepted and implemented by the population. Tailored COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Switzerland that aim to improve uptake should target specific subgroups such as women, people from rural areas or people with lower socio-demographic status.

COVID-19-releated public health measures may have indirectly impacted mortality rates by causing or averting deaths. Here, the authors use data from Switzerland until April 2022 and estimate that, after accounting for deaths directly related to COVID-19, mortality was lower than expected, indicating some evidence of an overall positive impact of control measures.

BACKGROUND Neutralizing antibodies are considered a key correlate of protection by current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The manner in which human infections respond to therapeutic SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, including convalescent plasma therapy, remains to be fully elucidated.METHODS We conducted a proof-of-principle study of convalescent plasma therapy based on a phase I trial in 30 hospitalized COVID-19 patients with a median interval between onset of symptoms and first transfusion of 9 days (IQR, 7–11.8 days). Comprehensive longitudinal monitoring of the virological, serological, and disease status of recipients allowed deciphering of parameters on which plasma therapy efficacy depends.RESULTS In this trial, convalescent plasma therapy was safe as evidenced by the absence of transfusion-related adverse events and low mortality (3.3%). Treatment with highly neutralizing plasma was significantly associated with faster virus clearance, as demonstrated by Kaplan-Meier analysis (P = 0.034) and confirmed in a parametric survival model including viral load and comorbidity (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.1–8.1; P = 0.026). The onset of endogenous neutralization affected viral clearance, but even after adjustment for their pretransfusion endogenous neutralization status, recipients benefitted from plasma therapy with high neutralizing antibodies (hazard ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.1–11; P = 0.034).CONCLUSION Our data demonstrate a clear impact of exogenous antibody therapy on the rapid clearance of viremia before and after onset of the endogenous neutralizing response, and point beyond antibody-based interventions to critical laboratory parameters for improved evaluation of current and future SARS-CoV-2 therapies.TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04869072.FUNDING This study was funded via an Innovation Pool project by the University Hospital Zurich; the Swiss Red Cross Glückskette Corona Funding; Pandemiefonds of the UZH Foundation; and the Clinical Research Priority Program “Comprehensive Genomic Pathogen Detection” of the University of Zurich.

BackgroundDebate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic?Methods and findingsThe protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated.ConclusionsBased on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2.Review protocolOpen Science Framework (https://osf.io/9ewys/).

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns started in early 2021. Vaccine coverage reached 65% of the population in December 2021, mostly with mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNtech. Simultaneously, the proportion of vaccinated among COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths rose, creating some confusion in the general population. We aimed to assess vaccine effectiveness against severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection using routine surveillance data on the vaccination status of COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths, and data on vaccine coverage in Switzerland. METHODS: We considered all routine surveillance data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths received at the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health from 1 July to 1 December 2021. We estimated the relative risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death for not fully vaccinated compared with fully vaccinated individuals, adjusted for the dynamics of vaccine coverage over time, by age and location. We stratified the analysis by age group and by calendar month. We assessed variations in the relative risk of hospitalisation associated with the time since vaccination. RESULTS: We included a total of 5948 COVID-19-related hospitalisations of which 1245 (21%) were fully vaccinated patients, and a total of 739 deaths of which 259 (35%) were fully vaccinated. We found that the relative risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation was 12.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 11.7–13.4) times higher for not fully vaccinated than for fully vaccinated individuals. This translates into a vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 92.0% (95% CI 91.4–92.5%). Vaccine effectiveness against death was estimated to be 90.3% (95% CI 88.6–91.8%). Effectiveness appeared to be comparatively lower in age groups over 70 and during the months of October and November 2021. We also found evidence of a decrease in vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for individuals vaccinated for 25 weeks or more, but this decrease appeared only in age groups below 70. CONCLUSIONS: The observed proportions of vaccinated among COVD-19-related hospitalisations and deaths in Switzerland were compatible with a high effectiveness of mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNtech against hospitalisation and death in all age groups. Effectiveness appears comparatively lower in older age groups, suggesting the importance of booster vaccinations. We found inconclusive evidence that vaccine effectiveness wanes over time. Repeated analyses will be able to better assess waning and the effect of boosters.