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Abstract Lynch syndrome is rarely associated with rectal cancer (RC) and thus, metachronous RC has been scarcely investigated. This study aimed to analyze the mucosal immune microenvironment in sporadic and metachronous RC. We analyzed the mucosal immune microenvironment in the 25 metachronous RCs present in the IMMUNOREACT 1 and 2 multicentre observational studies (624 patients). A panel of immune markers was retrospectively investigated at immunohistochemistry: CD3, CD4, CD8, CD8b, Tbet, FoxP3, PD-L1, MSH6, and PMS2 and CD80. Single-cell suspensions were subjected to flow-cytometry to determine the proportion of epithelial cells (pan-cytokeratin) acting as antigen-presenting cells (expressing CD80, CD86, HLA-ABC) and the proportion of activated CD8 + T cells (CD8 + positive for CD28, CD38), inhibitory T cells (CD3 + CTLA-4+) of activated CD4 + T helper cells (CD4 + CD25+) and activated T regulatory cells (CD4 + CD25 + FoxP3+). No mismatch repair gene deficiencies were observed in the patients. The previous history of colorectal adenoma was significantly more frequent in metachronous RC. In healthy epithelial cells, HLA-ABC expression was significantly higher in patients with metachronous RC. In therapy-naïve metachronous RC patients, a significantly lower level of circulating lymphocytes and CD3 + T-cell infiltration in the healthy mucosa surrounding the RC was observed compared to patients with non-metachronous cancer. Our study supports the hypothesis that metachronous RC can occur in a cancerization field in patients with weak systemic and local immune systems. The peculiar site of RC makes the mismatch-repair genes deficiency in metachronous cancer onset less relevant.

Abstract Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that results in death within a short time span (3-5 years). One of the major challenges in treating ALS is its highly heterogeneous disease progression and the lack of effective prognostic tools to forecast it. The main aim of this study was, then, to test the feasibility of predicting relevant clinical outcomes that characterize the progression of ALS with a two-year prediction horizon via artificial intelligence techniques using routine visits data. Methods Three classification problems were considered: predicting death (binary problem), predicting death or percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) (multiclass problem), and predicting death or non-invasive ventilation (NIV) (multiclass problem). Two supervised learning models, a logistic regression (LR) and a deep learning multilayer perceptron (MLP), were trained ensuring technical robustness and reproducibility. Moreover, to provide insights into model explainability and result interpretability, model coefficients for LR and Shapley values for both LR and MLP were considered to characterize the relationship between each variable and the outcome. Results On the one hand, predicting death was successful as both models yielded F1 scores and accuracy well above 0.7. The model explainability analysis performed for this outcome allowed for the understanding of how different methodological approaches consider the input variables when performing the prediction. On the other hand, predicting death alongside PEG or NIV proved to be much more challenging (F1 scores and accuracy in the 0.4-0.6 interval). Conclusions In conclusion, predicting death due to ALS proved to be feasible. However, predicting PEG or NIV in a multiclass fashion proved to be unfeasible with these data, regardless of the complexity of the methodological approach. The observed results suggest a potential ceiling on the amount of information extractable from the database, e.g., due to the intrinsic difficulty of the prediction tasks at hand, or to the absence of crucial predictors that are, however, not currently collected during routine practice.

Abstract Comorbidity is widespread in the ageing population, implying multiple and complex medical needs for individuals and a public health burden. Determining risk factors and predicting comorbidity development can help identify at-risk subjects and design prevention strategies. Using socio-demographic and clinical data from approximately 11,000 subjects monitored over 11 years in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we develop a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model the onset and interaction of three cardio-metabolic comorbidities, namely type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and heart problems. The DBN allows us to identify risk factors for developing each morbidity, simulate ageing progression over time, and stratify the population based on the risk of outcome occurrence. By applying hierarchical agglomerative clustering to the simulated, dynamic risk of experiencing morbidities, we identified patients with similar risk patterns and the variables contributing to their discrimination. The network reveals a direct joint effect of biomarkers and lifestyle on outcomes over time, such as the impact of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and BMI on T2D development. Mediated cross-relationships between comorbidities also emerge, showcasing the interconnected nature of these health issues. The model presents good calibration and discrimination ability, particularly in predicting the onset of T2D (iAUC-ROC = 0.828, iAUC-PR = 0.294) and survival (iAUC-ROC = 0.827, iAUC-PR = 0.311). Stratification analysis unveils two distinct clusters for all comorbidities, effectively discriminated by variables like HbA1c for T2D and age at baseline for heart problems. The developed DBN constitutes an effective, highly-explainable predictive risk tool for simulating and stratifying the dynamic risk of developing cardio-metabolic comorbidities. Its use could help identify the effects of risk factors and develop health policies that prevent the occurrence of comorbidities.

Abstract Writing notes is the most widespread method to report clinical events. Therefore, most of the information about the disease history of a patient remains locked behind free-form text. Natural language processing (NLP) provides a solution to automatically transform free-form text into structured data. In the present work, electronic healthcare records data of patients with diabetes were used to develop deep-learning based NLP models to automatically identify, within free-form text describing routine visits, the occurrence of hospitalisations related to cardiovascular disease (CVDs), an outcome of diabetes. Four possible time windows of increasing level of expected difficulty were considered: infinite, 24 months, 12 months, and 6 months. Model performance was evaluated by means of the area under the precision recall curve, as well as precision, recall, and F1-score after thresholding. Results showed that the proposed NLP approach was successful for both the infinite and 24-month windows, while, as expected, performance deteriorated with shorter time windows. Possible clinical applications of tools based on the proposed NLP approach include the retrospective filling of medical records with respect to a patient’s CVD history for epidemiological and research purposes as well as for clinical decision making.

Abstract Background The ageing global population presents significant public health challenges, especially in relation to the subjective wellbeing of the elderly. In this study, our aim was to investigate the potential for developing a model to forecast the two-year variation of the perceived wellbeing of individuals aged over 50. We also aimed to identify the variables that predict changes in subjective wellbeing, as measured by the CASP-12 scale, over a two-year period. Methods Data from the European SHARE project were used, specifically the demographic, health, social and financial variables of 9422 subjects. The subjective wellbeing was measured through the CASP-12 scale. The study outcome was defined as binary, i.e., worsening/not worsening of the variation of CASP-12 in 2 years. Logistic regression, logistic regression with LASSO regularisation, and random forest were considered candidate models. Performance was assessed in terms of accuracy in correctly predicting the outcome, Area Under the Curve (AUC), and F1 score. Results The best-performing model was the random forest, achieving an accuracy of 65%, AUC = 0.659, and F1 = 0.710. All models proved to be able to generalise both across subjects and over time. The most predictive variables were the CASP-12 score at baseline, the presence of depression and financial difficulties. Conclusions While we identify the random forest model as the more suitable, given the similarity of performance, the models based on logistic regression or on logistic regression with LASSO regularisation are also possible options.

Abstract The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, forced us to face a pandemic with unprecedented social, economic, and public health consequences. Several nations have launched campaigns to immunize millions of people using various vaccines to prevent infections. Meanwhile, therapeutic approaches and discoveries continuously arise; however, identifying infected patients that are going to experience the more severe outcomes of COVID-19 is still a major need, to focus therapeutic efforts, reducing hospitalization and mitigating drug adverse effects. Microbial communities colonizing the respiratory tract exert significant effects on host immune responses, influencing the susceptibility to infectious agents. Through 16S rDNAseq we characterized the upper airways’ microbiota of 192 subjects with nasopharyngeal swab positive for SARS-CoV-2. Patients were divided into groups based on the presence of symptoms, pneumonia severity, and need for oxygen therapy or intubation. Indeed, unlike most of the literature, our study focuses on identifying microbial signatures predictive of disease progression rather than on the probability of infection itself, for which a consensus is lacking. Diversity, differential abundance, and network analysis at different taxonomic levels were synergistically adopted, in a robust bioinformatic pipeline, highlighting novel possible taxa correlated with patients’ disease progression to intubation.

Abstract Human cellular reprogramming to induced pluripotency is still an inefficient process, which has hindered studying the role of critical intermediate stages. Here we take advantage of high efficiency reprogramming in microfluidics and temporal multi-omics to identify and resolve distinct sub-populations and their interactions. We perform secretome analysis and single-cell transcriptomics to show functional extrinsic pathways of protein communication between reprogramming sub-populations and the re-shaping of a permissive extracellular environment. We pinpoint the HGF/MET/STAT3 axis as a potent enhancer of reprogramming, which acts via HGF accumulation within the confined system of microfluidics, and in conventional dishes needs to be supplied exogenously to enhance efficiency. Our data suggest that human cellular reprogramming is a transcription factor-driven process that it is deeply dependent on extracellular context and cell population determinants.

Abstract A growing body of evidence links gut microbiota changes with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), raising the potential benefit of exploiting metagenomics data for non-invasive IBD diagnostics. The sbv IMPROVER metagenomics diagnosis for inflammatory bowel disease challenge investigated computational metagenomics methods for discriminating IBD and nonIBD subjects. Participants in this challenge were given independent training and test metagenomics data from IBD and nonIBD subjects, which could be wither either raw read data (sub-challenge 1, SC1) or processed Taxonomy- and Function-based profiles (sub-challenge 2, SC2). A total of 81 anonymized submissions were received between September 2019 and March 2020. Most participants’ predictions performed better than random predictions in classifying IBD versus nonIBD, Ulcerative Colitis (UC) versus nonIBD, and Crohn’s Disease (CD) versus nonIBD. However, discrimination between UC and CD remains challenging, with the classification quality similar to the set of random predictions. We analyzed the class prediction accuracy, the metagenomics features by the teams, and computational methods used. These results will be openly shared with the scientific community to help advance IBD research and illustrate the application of a range of computational methodologies for effective metagenomic classification.

Abstract Background Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a neurodegenerative disease whose spreading and progression mechanisms are still unclear. The ability to predict ALS prognosis would improve the patients’ quality of life and support clinicians in planning treatments. In this paper, we investigate ALS evolution trajectories using Process Mining (PM) techniques enriched to both easily mine processes and automatically reveal how the pathways differentiate according to patients’ characteristics. Methods We consider data collected in two distinct data sources, namely the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) dataset and a real-world clinical register (ALS–BS) including data of patients followed up in two tertiary clinical centers of Brescia (Italy). With a focus on the functional abilities progressively impaired as the disease progresses, we use two Process Discovery methods, namely the Directly-Follows Graph and the CareFlow Miner, to mine the population disease trajectories on the PRO-ACT dataset. We characterize the impairment trajectories in terms of patterns, timing, and probabilities, and investigate the effect of some patients’ characteristics at onset on the followed paths. Finally, we perform a comparative study of the impairment trajectories mined in PRO-ACT versus ALS–BS. Results We delineate the progression pathways on PRO-ACT, identifying the predominant disabilities at different stages of the disease: for instance, 85% of patients enter the trials without disabilities, and 48% of them experience the impairment of Walking/Self-care abilities first. We then test how a spinal onset increases the risk of experiencing the loss of Walking/Self-care ability as first impairment (52% vs. 27% of patients develop it as the first impairment in the spinal vs. the bulbar cohorts, respectively), as well as how an older age at onset corresponds to a more rapid progression to death. When compared, the PRO-ACT and the ALS–BS patient populations present some similarities in terms of natural progression of the disease, as well as some differences in terms of observed trajectories plausibly due to the trial scheduling and recruitment criteria. Conclusions We exploited PM to provide an overview of the evolution scenarios of an ALS trial population and to preliminary compare it to the progression observed in a clinical cohort. Future work will focus on further improving the understanding of the disease progression mechanisms, by including additional real-world subjects as well as by extending the set of events considered in the impairment trajectories.

Abstract Background Results of cardiovascular outcome trials enabled a shift from “treat-to-target” to “treat-to-benefit” paradigm in the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, studies validating such approach are limited. Here, we examined whether treatment according to international recommendations for the pharmacological management of T2D had an impact on long-term outcomes. Methods This was an observational study conducted on outpatient data collected in 2008–2018 (i.e. prior to the “treat-to-benefit” shift). We defined 6 domains of treatment based on the ADA/EASD consensus covering all disease stages: first- and second-line treatment, intensification, use of insulin, cardioprotective, and weight-affecting drugs. At each visit, patients were included in Group 1 if at least one domain deviated from recommendation or in Group 2 if aligned with recommendations. We used Cox proportional hazard models with time-dependent co-variates or Cox marginal structural models (with inverse-probability of treatment weighing evaluated at each visit) to adjust for confounding factors and evaluate three outcomes: major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), hospitalization for heart failure or cardiovascular mortality (HF-CVM), and all-cause mortality. Results We included 5419 patients, on average 66-year old, 41% women, with a baseline diabetes duration of 7.6 years. Only 11.7% had pre-existing cardiovascular disease. During a median follow-up of 7.3 years, patients were seen 12 times at the clinic, and we recorded 1325 MACE, 1593 HF-CVM, and 917 deaths. By the end of the study, each patient spent on average 63.6% of time in Group 1. In the fully adjusted model, being always in Group 2 was associated with a 45% lower risk of MACE (HR 0.55; 95% C.I. 0.46–0.66; p

Abstract Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a highly complex and heterogeneous neurodegenerative disease that affects motor neurons. Since life expectancy is relatively low, it is essential to promptly understand the course of the disease to better target the patient’s treatment. Predictive models for disease progression are thus of great interest. One of the most extensive and well-studied open-access data resources for ALS is the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) repository. In 2015, the DREAM-Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge was held on PRO-ACT data, where competitors were asked to develop machine learning algorithms to predict disease progression measured through the slope of the ALSFRS score between 3 and 12 months. However, although it has already been successfully applied in several studies on ALS patients, to the best of our knowledge deep learning approaches still remain unexplored on the ALSFRS slope prediction in PRO-ACT cohort. Here, we investigate how deep learning models perform in predicting ALS progression using the PRO-ACT data. We developed three models based on different architectures that showed comparable or better performance with respect to the state-of-the-art models, thus representing a valid alternative to predict ALS disease progression.

Abstract Aim Treatment algorithms define lines of glucose lowering medications (GLM) for the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but whether therapeutic trajectories are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is unclear. We explored whether the temporal resolution of GLM usage discriminates patients who experienced a 4P-MACE (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, death for all causes). Methods We used an administrative database (Veneto region, North-East Italy, 2011–2018) and implemented recurrent neural networks (RNN) with outcome-specific attention maps. The model input included age, sex, diabetes duration, and a matrix of GLM pattern before the 4P-MACE or censoring. Model output was discrimination, reported as area under receiver characteristic curve (AUROC). Attention maps were produced to show medications whose time-resolved trajectories were the most important for discrimination. Results The analysis was conducted on 147,135 patients for training and model selection and on 10,000 patients for validation. Collected data spanned a period of ~ 6 years. The RNN model efficiently discriminated temporal patterns of GLM ending in a 4P-MACE vs. those ending in an event-free censoring with an AUROC of 0.911 (95% C.I. 0.904–0.919). This excellent performance was significantly better than that of other models not incorporating time-resolved GLM trajectories: (i) a logistic regression on the bag-of-words encoding all GLM ever taken by the patient (AUROC 0.754; 95% C.I. 0.743–0.765); (ii) a model including the sequence of GLM without temporal relationships (AUROC 0.749; 95% C.I. 0.737–0.761); (iii) a RNN model with the same construction rules but including a time-inverted or randomised order of GLM. Attention maps identified the time-resolved pattern of most common first-line (metformin), second-line (sulphonylureas) GLM, and insulin (glargine) as those determining discrimination capacity. Conclusions The time-resolved pattern of GLM use identified patients with subsequent cardiovascular events better than the mere list or sequence of prescribed GLM. Thus, a patient’s therapeutic trajectory could determine disease outcomes.

Abstract Predicting the risk of cardiovascular complications, in particular heart failure hospitalisation (HHF), can improve the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Most predictive models proposed so far rely on clinical data not available at the higher Institutional level. Therefore, it is of interest to assess the risk of HHF in people with T2D using administrative claims data only, which are more easily obtainable and could allow public health systems to identify high-risk individuals. In this paper, the administrative claims of > 175,000 patients with T2D were used to develop a new risk score for HHF based on Cox regression. Internal validation on the administrative data cohort yielded satisfactory results in terms of discrimination (max AUROC = 0.792, C-index = 0.786) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test p value

Abstract Background 16S rRNA-gene sequencing is a valuable approach to characterize the taxonomic content of the whole bacterial population inhabiting a metabolic and spatial niche, providing an important opportunity to study bacteria and their role in many health and environmental mechanisms. The analysis of data produced by amplicon sequencing, however, brings very specific methodological issues that need to be properly addressed to obtain reliable biological conclusions. Among these, 16S count data tend to be very sparse, with many null values reflecting species that are present but got unobserved due to the multiplexing constraints. However, current data workflows do not consider a step in which the information about unobserved species is recovered. Results In this work, we evaluate for the first time the effects of introducing in the 16S data workflow a new preprocessing step, zero-imputation, to recover this lost information. Due to the lack of published zero-imputation methods specifically designed for 16S count data, we considered a set of zero-imputation strategies available for other frameworks, and benchmarked them using in silico 16S count data reflecting different experimental designs. Additionally, we assessed the effect of combining zero-imputation and normalization, i.e. the only preprocessing step in current 16S workflow. Overall, we benchmarked 35 16S preprocessing pipelines assessing their ability to handle data sparsity, identify species presence/absence, recovery sample proportional abundance distributions, and improve typical downstream analyses such as computation of alpha and beta diversity indices and differential abundance analysis. Conclusions The results clearly show that 16S data analysis greatly benefits from a properly-performed zero-imputation step, despite the choice of the right zero-imputation method having a pivotal role. In addition, we identify a set of best-performing pipelines that could be a valuable indication for data analysts.

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the causes of continuous deep fluctuations in the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) in an untreated patient with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL), who has had a favorable prognosis since the time of diagnosis. Up until now, the patient has voluntarily chosen to adopt a predominantly vegetarian and fruitarian diet, along with prolonged periods of total fasting (ranging from 4 to 39 days) each year. Materials and Methods: For this purpose, we decided to analyze the whole transcriptome profiling of peripheral blood (PB) CD19+ cells from the patient (#1) at different time-points vs. the same cells of five other untreated CLL patients who followed a varied diet. Consequently, the CLL patients were categorized as follows: the 1st group comprised patient #1 at 20 different time-points (16 time-points during nutrition and 4 time-points during fasting), whereas the 2nd group included only one time point for each of the patients (#2, #3, #4, #5, and #6) as they followed a varied diet. We performed microarray experiments using a powerful tool, the Affymetrix Human Clariom™ D Pico Assay, to generate high-fidelity biomarker signatures. Statistical analysis was employed to identify differentially expressed genes and to perform sample clustering. Results: The lymphocytosis trend in patient #1 showed recurring fluctuations since the time of diagnosis. Interestingly, we observed that approximately 4–6 weeks after the conclusion of fasting periods, the absolute lymphocyte count was reduced by about half. The gene expression profiling analysis revealed that nine genes were statistically differently expressed between the 1st group and the 2nd group. Specifically, IGLC3, RPS26, CHPT1, and PCDH9 were under expressed in the 1st group compared to the 2nd group of CLL patients. Conversely, IGHV3-43, IGKV3D-20, PLEKHA1, CYBB, and GABRB2 were over-expressed in the 1st group when compared to the 2nd group of CLL patients. Furthermore, clustering analysis validated that all the samples from patient #1 clustered together, showing clear separation from the samples of the other CLL patients. Conclusions: This study unveiled a small gene expression signature consisting of nine genes that distinguished an untreated CLL patient who followed prolonged periods of total fasting, maintaining a gradual growth trend of lymphocytosis, compared to five untreated CLL patients with a varied diet. Future investigations focusing on patient #1 could potentially shed light on the role of prolonged periodic fasting and the implication of this specific gene signature in sustaining the lymphocytosis trend and the favorable course of the disease.

The development of increasingly efficient and cost-effective high throughput DNA sequencing techniques has enhanced the possibility of studying complex microbial systems. Recently, researchers have shown great interest in studying the microorganisms that characterise different ecological niches. Differential abundance analysis aims to find the differences in the abundance of each taxa between two classes of subjects or samples, assigning a significance value to each comparison. Several bioinformatic methods have been specifically developed, taking into account the challenges of microbiome data, such as sparsity, the different sequencing depth constraint between samples and compositionality. Differential abundance analysis has led to important conclusions in different fields, from health to the environment. However, the lack of a known biological truth makes it difficult to validate the results obtained. In this work we exploit metaSPARSim, a microbial sequencing count data simulator, to simulate data with differential abundance features between experimental groups. We perform a complete comparison of recently developed and established methods on a common benchmark with great effort to the reliability of both the simulated scenarios and the evaluation metrics. The performance overview includes the investigation of numerous scenarios, studying the effect on methods' results on the main covariates such as sample size, percentage of differentially abundant features, sequencing depth, feature variability, normalisation approach and ecological niches. Mainly, we find that methods show a good control of the type I error and, generally, also of the false discovery rate at high sample size, while recall seem to depend on the dataset and sample size.

Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) represents a very promising approach to decreasing disease activity in canine chronic enteropathies (CE). However, the relationship between remission mechanisms and microbiome changes has not been elucidated yet. The main objective of this study was to report the clinical effects of oral freeze-dried FMT in CE dogs, comparing the fecal microbiomes of three groups: pre-FMT CE-affected dogs, post-FMT dogs, and healthy dogs. Diversity analysis, differential abundance analysis, and machine learning algorithms were applied to investigate the differences in microbiome composition between healthy and pre-FMT samples, while Canine Chronic Enteropathy Clinical Activity Index (CCECAI) changes and microbial diversity metrics were used to evaluate FMT effects. In the healthy/pre-FMT comparison, significant differences were noted in alpha and beta diversity and a list of differentially abundant taxa was identified, while machine learning algorithms predicted sample categories with 0.97 (random forest) and 0.87 (sPLS-DA) accuracy. Clinical signs of improvement were observed in 74% (20/27) of CE-affected dogs, together with a statistically significant decrease in CCECAI (median value from 5 to 2 median). Alpha and beta diversity variations between pre- and post-FMT were observed for each receiver, with a high heterogeneity in the response. This highlighted the necessity for further research on a larger dataset that could identify different healing patterns of microbiome changes.