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Flood risk quantification is a complex process involving a chain of models. The approach contains many uncertainties which accumulate in the calculated flood risk. Risk-based flood safety standards are therefore prone to large uncertainty. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of risk-based flood safety standards for a Dutch riverine case study. Through a systematic approach using expert elicitation, the key uncertainty sources in the Dutch safety standard derivation are identified. Uncertainty magnitudes are quantified for five main sources of uncertainty, after which these uncertainties are propagated through the model chain in a scenario analysis to derive flood safety standards. The results show that the Dutch risk-based flood safety standards are highly uncertain given the relative uncertainty bandwidth of 70%. The flood safety standards are found to be most sensitive to damage function and evacuation uncertainty. Also, we show that the impact of uncertainty strongly depends on local characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol particle number concentration measurements are a crucial part of aerosol research. Vertical profile measurements and high-altitude/low-pressure performance of the respective instruments become more important for remote sensing validation and a vital tool for the observation of climate variables. This study tests the new, commercially available water condensation particle counter (MAGIC 210-LP) for the deployment at aircraft cruising pressure levels that the European research infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; http://www.iagos.org , last access: 2 May 2023) is aiming for by operating measurement instrumentation onboard passenger aircraft. We conducted laboratory experiments for conditions to simulate passenger aircraft flight altitude at operation pressure. We demonstrate that this type of water condensation particle counter shows excellent agreement with a butanol-based instrument used in parallel. A Faraday cup aerosol electrometer serves as the reference instrument. Experiments are performed with test aerosol ammonium sulfate and fresh combustion soot at pressure levels ranging from 700 to 200 hPa. For soluble particles like ammonium sulfate, the 50 % detection efficiency cut-off diameter (D50) is around 5 nm and does not differ significantly for all performed experiments. For non-soluble fresh soot particles, the D50 cut-off diameter of approximately 10 nm does not vary substantially as a function of pressure, whereas the 90 % detection efficiency cut-off diameter D90 increases from 19 nm at 700 hPa to 37 nm at 200 hPa. The overall counting efficiency for particles larger than 40 nm reaches 100 % for working pressures of 200 hPa and higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol intensive optical properties, including Ångström exponents for aerosol light extinction (EAEs), scattering (SAEs) and absorption (AAEs) as well as and the single-scattering albedo (SSA), are indicators for aerosol size, chemical composition, radiative behaviour and particle sources. Derivation of these parameters requires the measurement of aerosol optical properties at multiple wavelengths, which usually involves the use of several instruments. Our study aims to quantify the uncertainties in the determination of these intensive properties using an optical closure approach. In our laboratory closure study, we measured the full set of optical properties for a range of light-absorbing particles with different properties externally mixed with ammonium sulfate to generate aerosols with controlled SSA values. The investigated absorbing particle types were fresh combustion soot emitted by an inverted flame soot generator (SOOT; fractal agglomerates), Aquadag (AQ; compact aggregates), Cabot black (BC; compact agglomerates) and an acrylic paint (magic black, shape unknown). The instruments used in this study were two cavity attenuated phase shift particle monitors for single-scattering albedo (CAPS PM SSA 's; λ=450 , 630 nm) for measuring light-extinction and light-scattering coefficients, one integrating nephelometer (λ=450 , 550, 700 nm) for light-scattering coefficients, and one tricolour absorption photometer (TAP; λ=467 , 528, 652 nm) for filter-based light-absorption coefficients. One key finding is that the coefficients of light absorption, scattering and extinction derived from combing the measurements of two independent instruments agree with measurements from single instruments; the slopes of regression lines are equal within reported uncertainties (i.e. closure is observed). Despite closure for measured absorption coefficients, we caution that the estimated uncertainties for absorption coefficients, propagated for the differential method (DM; absorption = extinction minus scattering), can exceed 100 % for atmospherically relevant SSA values (>0.9). This increasing estimated uncertainty with increasing SSA yields AAE values that may be too uncertain for measurements in the range of atmospheric aerosol loadings. We recommend using the DM for measuring AAE values when the SSA < 0.9. EAE- and SAE-derived values achieved closure during this study within stated uncertainties for extinction coefficients greater than 15 Mm -1. SSA values for 450 and 630 nm wavelengths internally agreed with each other within 10 % uncertainty for all instrument combinations and sampled aerosol types, which fulfils the defined goals for measurement uncertainty of 10 % proposed by Laj et al. (2020) for GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosol intensive optical properties like the Ångström exponents for aerosol light extinction, scattering and absorption, or the single-scattering albedo are indicators for aerosol size distributions, chemical composition and radiative behaviour and contain also source information. The observation of these parameters requires the measurement of aerosol optical properties at multiple wavelengths which usually implies the use of several instruments. Our study aims to quantify the uncertainties of the determination of multiple-wavelengths intensive properties by an optical closure approach, using different test aerosols. In our laboratory closure study, we measured the full set of aerosol optical properties for a range of light-absorbing aerosols with different properties, mixed externally with ammonium sulphate to generate aerosols of controlled single-scattering albedo. The investigated aerosol types were: fresh combustion soot emitted by an inverted flame soot generator (SOOT, fractal aggregates), Aquadag (AQ, spherical shape), Cabot industrial soot (BC, compact clusters), and an acrylic paint (Magic Black, MB). One focus was on the validity of the Differential Method (DM: absorption = extinction minus scattering) for the determination of Ångström exponents for different particle loads and mixtures of light-absorbing aerosol with ammonium sulphate, in comparison to data obtained from single instruments. The instruments used in this study were two CAPS PMssa (Cavity Attenuated Phase Shift Single Scattering Albedo, ? = 450, 630 nm) for light extinction and scattering coefficients, one Integrating Nephelometer (? = 450, 550, 700 nm) for light scattering coefficient and one Tricolour Absorption Photometer (TAP, ? = 467, 528, 652 nm) for filter-based light absorption coefficient measurement. Our key finding is that the coefficients of light absorption sap, scattering ssp and extinction sep from the Differential Method agree with data from single reference instruments, and the slopes of regression lines equal unity within the precision error. We found, however, that the precision error for the DM exceeds 100% for sap values lower than 10-20 Mm-1 for atmospheric relevant single scattering albedo. This increasing uncertainty with decreasing sap yields an absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) that is too uncertain for measurements in the range of atmospheric aerosol loadings. We recommend using DM only for measuring AAE values for sap > 50 Mm-1. Ångström exponents for scattering and extinction are reliable for extinction coefficients from 20 up to 1000 Mm-1 and stay within 10% deviation from reference instruments, regardless of the chosen method. Single-scattering albedo (SSA) values for 450 nm and 630 nm wavelengths agree with values from the reference method ssp (NEPH)/sep (CAPS PMSSA) with less than 10% uncertainty for all instrument combinations and sampled aerosol types which fulfil the defined goals for measurement uncertainty of 10% proposed by Laj et al., 2020 for GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]