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The capacity of natural selection to generate adaptive changes is (according to the fundamental theorem of natural selection) proportional to the additive genetic variance in fitness. In spite of its importance for development of new adaptations to a changing environment, processes affecting the magnitude of the genetic variance in fitness-related traits are poorly understood. Here, we show that the red-white colour polymorphism in female barn owls is subject to density-dependent selection at the phenotypic and genotypic level. The diallelic melanocortin-1 receptor gene explained a large amount of the phenotypic variance in reddish coloration in the females ( R 2 = 59.8 % ). Red individuals (RR genotype) were selected for at low densities, while white individuals (WW genotype) were favoured at high densities and were less sensitive to changes in density. We show that this density-dependent selection favours white individuals and predicts fixation of the white allele in this population at longer time scales without immigration or other selective forces. Still, fluctuating population density will cause selection to fluctuate and periodically favour red individuals. These results suggest how balancing selection caused by fluctuations in population density can be a general mechanism affecting the level of additive genetic variance in natural populations.

Choosing the right harvesting strategy is crucial for sustainable utilization of biological resources but is challenging in real systems with fluctuating environments. This challenge is expected to become even greater with global warming, as environmental variability is predicted to increase. Additionally, harvesting strategies based on single-species models have been shown to carry a severe risk of species extinctions when species interactions are ignored, particularly in systems with more than one harvested species. As the climate continues to warm, we therefore need new reference points for harvesting in an ecosystem context with environmental fluctuations. In this paper, we discuss the development of harvesting strategies and suggest that a proportional threshold harvesting framework could be a useful starting point for developing such reference points and tackling the challenge of sustainable harvesting in the future.

Environmental variation in time and space generates complex patterns in the spatial structure of temporally covarying populations. Accounting for spatial population structure is important for sustainable management and harvest, but there is a need for a better understanding of the many mechanisms affecting the spatial structure of populations. In the large-scale research project SUSTAIN, detailed long-term data from several taxa within the boreal and Arctic ecosystems were used to address key research questions about spatial population structure. Here, we synthesise the main findings from these studies. Because nearby populations experience similar environmental variation, populations close to each other show more correlated dynamics than those at greater distances. However, several mechanisms can affect the extent of such spatial population synchrony, and we point to some similarities across systems that can explain the observed discrepancy between the spatial structure of the environment and that of population dynamics. We discuss the consequences of these findings for the practical management of species in a changing environment and the need for further research on how populations and ecosystems are affected by the spatial structure of the environment.

An organism's energy budget is strongly related to resource consumption, performance, and fitness. Hence, understanding the evolution of key energetic traits, such as basal metabolic rate (BMR), in natural populations is central for understanding life-history evolution and ecological processes. Here we used quantitative genetic analyses to study evolutionary potential of BMR in two insular populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We obtained measurements of BMR and body mass (Mb) from 911 house sparrows on the islands of Leka and Vega along the coast of Norway. These two populations were the source populations for translocations to create an additional third, admixed ‘common garden’ population in 2012. With the use of a novel genetic group animal model concomitant with a genetically determined pedigree, we differentiate genetic and environmental sources of variation, thereby providing insight into the effects of spatial population structure on evolutionary potential. We found that the evolutionary potential of BMR was similar in the two source populations, whereas the Vega population had a somewhat higher evolutionary potential of Mb than the Leka population. BMR was genetically correlated with Mb in both populations, and the conditional evolutionary potential of BMR (independent of body mass) was 41% (Leka) and 53% (Vega) lower than unconditional estimates. Overall, our results show that there is potential for BMR to evolve independently of Mb, but that selection on BMR and/or Mb may have different evolutionary consequences in different populations of the same species. peerReviewed

Telomeres, the nucleotide sequences that protect the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes, shorten with each cell division and telomere loss may be increased by factors such as oxidative stress. Telomere length (TL) decreases with age in several species, and TL or the change in TL (∆TL) have emerged as biomarkers reflecting experienced stress. In this study, we tracked changes in TL throughout the natural lifespan (from a few months to almost 9 years) of free-living house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in two different island populations. TL was measured in nestlings and subsequently up to 4 times during their lifetime. TL generally decreased with age (senescence), but we also observed instances of telomere lengthening within individuals. We found some evidence for selective disappearance of individuals with shorter telomeres through life. Early-life TL positively predicted later-life TL, but the within-individual repeatability in TL was low (9.2%). Using genetic pedigrees, we found a moderate heritability of ∆TL (h2 = 0.21), which was higher than the heritabilities of early-life TL (h2 = 0.14) and later-life TL measurements (h2 = 0.15). Cohort effects explained considerable proportions of variation in early-life TL (60%), later-life TL (53%), and ∆TL (37%), which suggests persistent impacts of the early-life environment on lifelong telomere dynamics. Individual changes in TL were independent of early-life TL. Finally, there was weak evidence for population differences in ∆TL that may be linked to ecological differences in habitat types. Combined, our results show that individual telomere biology is highly dynamic and influenced by both genetic and environmental variation in natural conditions.

Inbreeding can have negative effects on survival and reproduction, which may be of conservation concern in small and isolated populations. However, the physiological mechanisms underlying inbreeding depression are not well-known. The length of telomeres, the DNA sequences protecting chromosome ends, has been associated with health or fitness in several species. We investigated effects of inbreeding on early-life telomere length in two small island populations of wild house sparrows (Passer domesticus) known to be affected by inbreeding depression. Using genomic measures of inbreeding we found that inbred nestling house sparrows (n = 371) have significantly shorter telomeres. Using pedigree-based estimates of inbreeding we found a tendency for inbred nestling house sparrows to have shorter telomeres (n = 1195). This negative effect of inbreeding on telomere length may have been complemented by a heterosis effect resulting in longer telomeres in individuals that were less inbred than the population average. Furthermore, we found some evidence of stronger effects of inbreeding on telomere length in males than females. Thus, telomere length may reveal subtle costs of inbreeding in the wild and demonstrate a route by which inbreeding negatively impacts the physiological state of an organism already at early life-history stages.

The demographic effects of rapid environmental change and extreme climatic events (ECEs) can cascade across trophic levels, while the potential evolutionary implications have rarely been explored empirically. Here, we show how an ECE in high Arctic Svalbard triggered a trophic chain reaction, affecting overwintering and migratory vertebrates, which eventually induced a shift in density-dependent phenotypic selection in barnacle geese. A record-breaking rain-on-snow event and ice-locked pastures led to reindeer mass starvation and a population crash, followed by a period of low mortality and population recovery. This caused lagged, long-lasting reductions in reindeer carrion numbers and resultant low abundances of the Arctic fox, a scavenger on reindeer and predator of migratory birds. The associated shift in gosling predation rates by Arctic foxes allowed for a rapid increase in barnacle goose population density. As expected from r- and K-selection theory, we show that the goose body condition maximising Malthusian fitness increased with this shift in population density. Thus, the ECE acting directly on the overwintering community indirectly led to selection for larger geese. This high Arctic case study provides rare empirical evidence of links between ECEs, community dynamics and evolution, with implications for how we understand the indirect eco-evolutionary impacts of global change.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February–May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations. birds, climate, clutch size, comparative analysis, fitness-related traits, fledgling number, phenology, spatial synchrony, timing of breeding, weather

Our knowledge of the factors affecting species abundances is mainly based on time-series analyses of a few well-studied species at single or few localities, but we know little about whether results from such analyses can be extrapolated to the community level. We apply a joint species distribution model to long-term time-series data on British bird communities to examine the relative contribution of intra- and interspecific density dependence at different spatial scales, as well as the influence of environmental stochasticity, to spatiotemporal interspecific variation in abundance. Intraspecific density dependence has the major structuring effect on these bird communities. In addition, environmental fluctuations affect spatiotemporal differences in abundance. In contrast, species interactions had a minor impact on variation in abundance. Thus, important drivers of single-species dynamics are also strongly affecting dynamics of communities in time and space.

Achieving sustainable harvesting of natural populations depends on our ability to predict population responses to the combined effects of harvesting and environmental fluctuations while accounting for other internal and external factors that influence population dynamics in time and space. Here, we review recent research showing how spatial patterns and interspecific interactions can influence population responses to harvesting in fluctuating environments. We highlight several pathways through which harvesting can, often inadvertently, influence the dynamics and resilience to environmental fluctuations of both harvested and surrounding non-harvested populations and species. For instance, spatial models have shown that harvesting is expected to influence the spatial synchrony of population fluctuations, both of the harvested species and its competitors, predators and prey, with implications for population extinction risk. Dispersal and interspecific interactions can cause responses to harvesting in areas and species that are not themselves harvested. Harvesting that selectively targets certain groups of individuals, either intentionally or through for example spatially biased harvesting, can amplify environmentally induced population fluctuations by biasing the population structure towards individuals that are more sensitive to environmental variation. On the other hand, harvesting can in some cases buffer populations against the density-dependent effects of harsh climatic conditions, which are probably more common than previously acknowledged. Recent advances in modeling are providing new predictions that are highly relevant under global warming and now need to be tested empirically. We discuss how knowledge of these pathways can be used to increase the sustainability of harvesting.