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Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Populations of forest trees exhibit large temporal fluctuations, but little is known about the synchrony of these fluctuations across space, including their sign, magnitude, causes and characteristic scales. These have important implications for metapopulation persistence and theoretical community ecology. Using data from permanent forest plots spanning local, regional and global spatial scales, we measured spatial synchrony in tree population growth rates over sub-decadal and decadal timescales and explored the relationship of synchrony to geographical distance. Synchrony was high at local scales of less than 1 km, with estimated Pearson correlations of approximately 0.6–0.8 between species' population growth rates across pairs of quadrats. Synchrony decayed by approximately 17–44% with each order of magnitude increase in distance but was still detectably positive at distances of 100 km and beyond. Dispersal cannot explain observed large-scale synchrony because typical seed dispersal distances (<100 m) are far too short to couple the dynamics of distant forests on decadal timescales. We attribute the observed synchrony in forest dynamics primarily to the effect of spatially synchronous environmental drivers (the Moran effect), in particular climate, although pests, pathogens and anthropogenic drivers may play a role for some species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canopy gaps are widely recognized as being crucial for maintaining the diversity of forest tree communities. But empirical studies have found mixed results because the differences in diversity between individual gaps and non‐gaps are often small and statistically undetectable. One overlooked factor, however, is how small individual gap versus non‐gap differences may accumulate across sites and potentially have a large effect on forest diversity at the plot scale. Our study investigated sapling richness, density, and composition in 124 treefall gaps, and 200 non‐gap sites in the 50‐ha tropical forest plot at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Additionally, we analyzed species accumulation curves to understand how species richness increases with increasing stem numbers. We observed that sapling richness and density were only slightly higher in gaps 7 years after formation and statistically indistinguishable from non‐gaps after 12 years. However, species accumulation curves across multiple gaps were substantially higher than those across non‐gaps. Species composition showed small differences between individual gaps and non‐gaps but differed significantly between collections of gaps and non‐gaps. Specifically, 55 species specialized in 7‐year‐old gaps compared with 24 in non‐gaps; of these, 23 gap‐specialized species and zero non‐gap species were pioneers. Our results indicate that tree species richness is higher in gaps because of both higher stem density and the presence of gap‐specialized species. Our study has finally provided compelling evidence to support the idea that gaps enhance the overall diversity of tropical forest tree communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long‐standing puzzle in ecology is coexistence of many species despite relatively few limiting resources. Studies using competitive community models have found that temporal environmental stochasticity (TES) can provide a solution by providing a rare‐species advantage, for example by creating temporal niches. However, this appears to contradict studies using population models, which have found that TES‐induced temporal fluctuations in species abundances increase the chance of species becoming rare and hence increase their extinction risk. Here, we clarified how TES affects species richness by analysing a competitive community model using a novel mean‐field approach. We found that when temporal correlation in TES was weak, the dominant effect of TES was to create temporal niches by decreasing the strength of interspecific competition via a temporal averaging effect, thereby increasing species richness relative to the neutral case without TES. In contrast, when temporal correlation was strong, the dominant effect of TES was to increase the strength of selection and hence interspecific competition, thereby decreasing species richness. Compared with these indirect community effects of TES, the direct effects of TES on species richness via temporal fluctuations in abundances of species populations were relatively minor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Research in island biogeography has long focused mainly on present‐day island configurations. Recently, there has been an increasing focus on islands' past histories of land connection, shape and size. Moreover, continental islands (=shelf islands) have received less attention than oceanic islands, and species inventories from extremely small islands are lacking in many datasets. We examine the effects of sea‐level rise since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on bird species diversity and composition of tropical shelf islands in Southeast Asia. Location: Sundaland. Taxon: Birds. Methods: We compiled avifaunal island inventories for 94 islands using an exhaustive literature review of historic surveys of larger islands combined with our own comprehensive island surveys from both small and large islands. Using generalised least‐squares models with spatial autocorrelation, we assessed the importance of traditional biogeographical parameters including area, maximum elevation, distance from mainland and geographical isolation, along with post‐LGM effects of change in island area and duration since isolation. We also compared the species composition on similar‐sized shelf islands from two categories—recently submerged and unsubmerged—using non‐metric multidimensional scaling. Results: Post‐LGM effects on species diversity are minimal and insular diversity is instead well explained by present‐day island characteristics, such as area, distance to mainland and proportion of land surrounding an island within a 10 km radius (Cox and Snell Pseudo‐R2 = 0.803). Avifaunal diversity is similar across recently submerged and unsubmerged small shelf islands. Main conclusion: Avifaunal diversity on tropical shelf islands equilibrates rapidly after isolation, indicating that both extinction and immigration rates are high. In particular, a high immigration rate of dispersive species maintains diversity, especially on small islands. Over‐water dispersal is generally restricted to short distances among Sundaic birds. Consequently, the diversity of an island can be maintained by the presence of large or stepping‐stone islands near it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the total number of species on Earth has been a longstanding pursuit. Models project anywhere between 2 and 10 million species, and discovery of new species continues to the present day. Despite this, we hypothesized that our current knowledge of phylogenetic diversity (PD) may be almost complete because new discoveries may be less phylogenetically distinct than past discoveries. Focusing on birds, which are well studied, we generated a robust phylogenetic tree for most extant species by combining existing published trees and calculated each discovery's marginal contribution to known PD since the first formal species descriptions in 1758. We found that PD contributions began to plateau in the early 1900s, about half a century earlier than species richness. Relative contributions of each phylogenetic order to known PD shifted over the first 150 years, with a growing contribution of the hyper-diverse perching birds (Passeriformes) in particular, but after the early 1900s this has remained relatively stable. Altogether, this suggests that our knowledge of the evolutionary history of extant birds is mostly complete, with few discoveries of high evolutionary novelty left to be made, and that conclusions of studies using avian phylogenies are likely to be robust to future species discoveries.