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Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Extensive forest restoration is a key strategy to meet nature-based sustainable development goals and provide multiple social and environmental benefits 1 . Yet achieving forest restoration at scale requires cost-effective methods 2 . Tree planting in degraded landscapes is a popular but costly forest restoration method that often results in less biodiverse forests when compared to natural regeneration techniques under similar conditions 3 . Here we assess the current spatial distribution of pantropical natural forest (from 2000 to 2016) and use this to present a model of the potential for natural regeneration across tropical forested countries and biomes at a spatial resolution of 30 m. We estimate that an area of 215 million hectares-an area greater than the entire country of Mexico-has potential for natural forest regeneration, representing an above-ground carbon sequestration potential of 23.4 Gt C (range, 21.1-25.7 Gt) over 30 years. Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico and Colombia) account for 52% of this estimated potential, showcasing the need for targeting restoration initiatives that leverage natural regeneration potential. Our results facilitate broader equitable decision-making processes that capitalize on the widespread opportunity for natural regeneration to help achieve national and global environmental agendas., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).) more...

Habitat loss can lead to biotic homogenization (decrease in β diversity) or differentiation (increase in β diversity) of biological communities. However, it is unclear which of these ecological processes predominates in human-modified landscapes. We used data on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants to quantify β diversity based on species occurrence and abundance among communities in 1367 landscapes with varying amounts of habitat (<30%, 30-60%, or >60% of forest cover) throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Decreases in habitat amount below 30% led to increased compositional similarity of vertebrate and invertebrate communities, which may indicate a process of biotic homogenization throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. No pattern was detected in plant communities. We found that habitat loss was associated with a deterministic increase in faunal community similarity, which is consistent with a selected subset of species being capable of thriving in human-modified landscapes. The lack of pattern found in plants was consistent with known variation between taxa in community responses to habitat amount. Brazilian legislation requiring the preservation of 20% of Atlantic Forest native vegetation may be insufficient to prevent the biotic homogenization of faunal communities. Our results highlight the importance of preserving large amounts of habitat, providing source areas for the recolonization of deforested landscapes, and avoiding large-scale impacts of homogenization of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest., (© 2024 Society for Conservation Biology.) more...

Ecosystem restoration strategies vary widely in the techniques applied and ecological contexts. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate how restoration success varies across socio-ecological contexts, taxonomic groups and biomes. Restoration success is quantified as the percentage of each ecological metric value attained in the restoration site compared to the reference systems. We show that restoration success is different for plants, animals, and soils and across ecological indicators. Abundance of individuals is easier to restore than carbon stocks, which are easier than species diversity. However, abundance may be a poor indicator of ecosystem recovery because there is no unidirectional trend over time, and abundance often fails to distinguish restored from degraded areas. We also found that carbon stocks in the soil and in the vegetation are restored at analogous paces, but the recovery of soil carbon stocks is less variable than plant stocks across sites. Our results demonstrate that different restoration techniques are effective in recovering diversity and carbon stocks, but assisted natural regeneration showed a slightly higher success compared to other strategies. However, there is a considerable difficulty in restoring converted and degraded areas to achieve conditions similar to the original ecosystems. It is critical and timely to investigate benefits and effectiveness of ecosystem restoration techniques to biodiversity and carbon recovery different ecosystem types to improve the restoration effectiveness., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) more...

Natural forest regrowth is a cost-effective, nature-based solution for biodiversity recovery, yet different socioenvironmental factors can lead to variable outcomes. A critical knowledge gap in forest restoration planning is how to predict where natural forest regrowth is likely to lead to high levels of biodiversity recovery, which is an indicator of conservation value and the potential provisioning of diverse ecosystem services. We sought to predict and map landscape-scale recovery of species richness and total abundance of vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants in tropical and subtropical second-growth forests to inform spatial restoration planning. First, we conducted a global meta-analysis to quantify the extent to which recovery of species richness and total abundance in second-growth forests deviated from biodiversity values in reference old-growth forests in the same landscape. Second, we employed a machine-learning algorithm and a comprehensive set of socioenvironmental factors to spatially predict landscape-scale deviation and map it. Models explained on average 34% of observed variance in recovery (range 9-51%). Landscape-scale biodiversity recovery in second-growth forests was spatially predicted based on socioenvironmental landscape factors (human demography, land use and cover, anthropogenic and natural disturbance, ecosystem productivity, and topography and soil chemistry); was significantly higher for species richness than for total abundance for vertebrates (median range-adjusted predicted deviation 0.09 vs. 0.34) and invertebrates (0.2 vs. 0.35) but not for plants (which showed a similar recovery for both metrics [0.24 vs. 0.25]); and was positively correlated for total abundance of plant and vertebrate species (Pearson r = 0.45, p = 0.001). Our approach can help identify tropical and subtropical forest landscapes with high potential for biodiversity recovery through natural forest regrowth., (© 2021 Society for Conservation Biology.) more...